A week after the Michigan football team finally beat Michigan State, they have to travel to Lincoln, Nebraska for what seems like the Legend’s Division title. If Michigan loses this game, they no longer will be in control of their own destiny for the 2012 season. The Wolverines could all but wrap up the division title this week (barring any major let downs). The problem is that the Huskers are a completely different team at home, and this game is at night. If that doesn't scare you at first, just try to remember how this Michigan team played the last time they were on the road at night? Can you picture it, or is it blocked from your memory? Lets just say it was not pretty, and so this football team still has a lot to prove. Actually, a Michigan win on Saturday night might give the Big Ten its first "marquee" win of the season.
Nebraska Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
By now you know that I really enjoy watching this Wolverine defense play, and they seem to continue to improve each week. They will get their toughest test of the season since Alabama, and since the Tide built a 21 point lead in the first quarter they basically settled in and just ran the ball down our throats. This weekend might be the most dynamic offense we will have played. Nebraska has a stable of capable running backs (any of their top three I would enjoy seeing in a winged helmet). Rex Burkhead has been battling a sprained knee for most of the season and might not be 100% Saturday night, but the corn fed Huskers have play makers to replace him. Burkhead is the prototypical B1G running back, he is big but still fast enough, hands out punishment instead of takes it, has been durable in his career, and does not fumble the ball. He is the ground and pound aspect of the offense, and is able to run between the tackles better than backup Abdullah. Remember Alabama running between the tackles, oh please make it stop. Abdullah is more of a scat back and likes to bounce runs to the outside. He increases the team speed while he is on the field and makes a nasty combination with dual threat QB Martinez. Nebraska is one of the best running offenses in the nation. Yes, you can argue that they have not faced a defense like Michigan's. Wisconsin line backers are as good as Michigan's, but the defensive line was a mess in their matchup with Nebraska. Ohio State has a talented defensive line, but their line backers are still learning the defensive scheme. While that is all true, Nebraska will still get yards. The Husker offensive line is not nearly as good as Alabama, but with the spread style offense it doesn't have to be. Michigan will have to play fundamentally sound football, and stay in their gaps to limit the long runs. Even if they do this as well as they have been in the last 4 games, Nebraska will still likely average 4-5 ypc. That is not going to force many 3 and outs. Advantage Nebraska.
Nebraska Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
Taylor Martinez is leading the B1G in passing efficiency. Yes he improved his technique some in the offseason, but not that much. He still shot puts the ball places, but so far defenses have not been able to capitalize on that. The Huskers also have the best receiving corps in the conference, so no defensive secondary can keep up with them. Folks, the difference in passer efficiency between Nebraska and number 2 Ohio State is the same gap between the Buckeyes and number 11 Michigan State. Even with the bad mechanics, this dude is having an unbelievable year. Nebraska is still a run first spread offense, and they will run twice for every throw, but they have been effective in both aspects. The Michigan secondary has not been testing much this season. They keep doing extremely well in passing plays in front of them, but no team outside of Alabama has been a threat to stretch the field. The Spartans tried a couple of times last week, and the receivers had some separation but Maxwell was not able to hit them. Nebraska will take some shots and will test our cornerbacks. The Michigan secondary has been very good at stepping up against the run, but they have been confident to do that with little worry of getting beat downfield. They will not be able to be as aggressive in the run defense this week. Michigan is still struggling at generating a consistent pass rush, so if Martinez is able to sit in the pocket he will be able to find one of his talented receivers or tight end for big chunks of yards. Mattison has been offsetting this the past few weeks with a heavy blitz package, but Martinez is such a threat to run when he sees a gap that I don't think the Wolverines will be able to come after him as much as they would like. The blitzes will need to be well masked, and there will be more reliance on the cornerbacks in coverage. Advantage Nebraska, if Jake Ryan and Craig Roh can get pressure, the advantage decreases significantly.
Michigan Rush Offense vs Nebraska Rush Defense
The Husker defense is nowhere near the skill level of Michigan State's. The Michigan offensive line continues to get better, and they should have a big week in Lincoln. The Husker front seven has a few play makers, but their team speed will be out matched. Again, it will be important to get a running back going to take some focus off of Denard. Fitz looked better at times last week, and it would be nice to see him break out tomorrow night. It will be interesting to see if Al Borges trusts Denard with more of the play book this week, because last year Michigan had a great offensive game plan and Denard looked unstoppable. Even if we are stuck with the ultra-conservative running offense we have seen the past 3 weeks, Denard will likely break at least one big run. Nebraska's only chance at stopping him last year was LaVonte David, but their linebacker speed is just not enough to lock down number 16 all night. I still will like to see Gallon and Fitz get more involved in the running attack. I think Michigan will end with a 7+ ypc night. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan Pass Offense vs Nebraska Pass Defense
This is the big mystery here. The game plan for Notre Dame was just wrong, Borges opened up more of his own play book and it just doesnt work for Denard. The problem is now it seems that the coaching staff does not trust the senior quarterback at all and are playing each possession as just dont turn the ball over. Denard has been a lot better at ball security the last 3 weeks, but I dont know if the coaches are ready to take the training wheels back off. The problem is that Denard can be an effective passer, but the plays Borges wants to run are just too complex. Give Denard a 1 or 2 option quick throw, and if its not there insist that he pulls the ball down and takes off. Welcome to Nebraska/ Ohio State 2011 (2 of Denard's best games as a quarterback and not just a runner). The Husker secondary also has not been testing this season, although they are very talented. Denard might have plenty of time to make his reads, but he will have to be very accurate because the receivers will not have much separation all night. If Michigan can run some easy throwing plays early to get Denard to settle down in the hostile environment it could be a long night for the Nebraska defense. I just don't think it will start that way. Borges will have to realize that he cannot beat every team left on the schedule by lining up and running the same 3-4 plays and expect to get 300 yards on the ground and win the game. Denard needs to throw the ball. It will keep the safeties out of the box and give Gallon or Fitz a better chance of actually getting consistent yards. I would like to see Funchess in more of a pass catching role, because Nebraska does not have an athlete to cover him. The problem with Devin though is he is a 6'5" 225 lb freshman, and he blocks like one. Michigan State completely manhandled him all game last weekend, and Funchess was not able to be a factor in the passing game. I am not sure who to give the advantage to in this section because it really depends on the game plan and execution. Denard could have a 15-20 250 yard game against this defense, but he could also have a 9-24 with 3 interceptions. Until Borges and Denard prove they can get consistent yards in the air, I will give this advantage a push.
Michigan has been better at ball control recently, and will need that to continue on the road tomorrow night. They cannot lose the turnover battle and expect to win. Nebraska on the other hand finds the adventure in turnovers and likes to do it at least twice a game. It will be important for our defense to be able to recover the 1-2 guaranteed footballs that hit the turf. Martinez also has a knack for throwing pick sixes. This will be a big factor to watch during this game. If either team can get to a +2 margin, it will take quite the effort for them to lose. Prediction time, I do think Michigan gets a +2 turnover margin on the road. Nebraska has not been held to less than 29 points yet this year, but I think that streak will end this week. Taylor Martinez and the offense will get their yards, but turnovers and their defense's lack of ability to stop the Michigan offense will end up being the deciding factor. Michigan 31 Nebraska 27.
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