Week 14 Conference Title Preview

Since the B1G is down to one game this week I will do my best to predict the conference championship games that will be taking place tonight and tomorrow.  By Saturday night we will know where most teams are headed for the bowl season. 

Northern Illinois (11-1) vs Kent State (11-1) Friday 7:00pm

The MAC championship game could be one that a lot of eyes are on tonight.  Kent State is currently ranked number 17 in the BCS, which means they are very close to entering the top 16 as a conference champion to get an automatic berth in a BCS bowl.  It would be the MAC’s first, but it would also mean it takes away a spot from an at large team like Oklahoma or Clemson.  Northern Illinois puts up a lot of points, the Huskies QB will could get to 3,000 yards tonight while their running back could get to 1700 yards.  Kent State grinds out games on the ground with their 2 headed attack of Archer and Durham (both over 1175 yards on the season).  It should be a fun matchup in Detroit.  I think Northern Illinois is the better team right now and will end the MAC’s chances of a BCS berth.  The Huskies win a close football game 28-24.

UCLA (9-3) @ Stanford (10-2) Friday 8:00pm

It is a more respectable matchup than the B1G championship game for a Rose Bowl berth, but it is on the same premises.  The best team in the conference is not playing in the game (in the B1G the best two teams aren’t there).  I personally do not feel like either of these teams are great, but the winner will likely hold the Rose Bowl trophy on January 1^st.  Stanford just got done pummeling UCLA on the Bruins home field, and I have no reason to believ tonight will be any different.  The Cardinal defense is very good against the run, and will limit Franklin’s effectiveness in this one.  It also looks like redshirt freshman QB Hogan is comfortable under center.  Stanford wins big again 38-17.

Alabama (11-1) vs Georgia (11-1) Saturday 3:30pm

Not only is this matchup to win the revered SEC, it is also a semi-final game to get a chance to play Notre Dame in the BCS National Championship game.  Lucky us, we will get to see an SEC National Champion for the 7^th year in a row. In the preseason I really liked what Georgia brought to the table.  They are littered with first round draft picks, and likely top ten choices.  For most of the first half of the year, however, all of this talent didn’t seem to play well together and they won a lot of close games.  Then they got drop kicked by South Carolina, and since then the Bulldogs have bounced back to be a legitimate number 3 team in the country.  The problem here is that they have to play the number 2 team, which I feel is the nation’s best team.  It seems like the Crimson Tide have gotten a lot of breaks to go their way and have found themselves controlling their own destiny again, and I don’t think they will blow this opportunity.  This should be the best SEC Championship game we have seen in quite a while.  In the end the Tide defense forces more turnovers and AJ McCarron makes more smart decisions to give Alabama a chance at 3 national championships in 4 years (and to keep the crystal ball in Alabama for 4 straight). Alabama 27 Georgia 20

Florida State (10-2) vs Georgia Tech (6-6) Saturday 8:00pm

Is this a joke?  Well the Seminoles are coming off a curb stomping by their in state rivals, and they should be able to rebound nicely against the terrible Yellow Jackets.  Tech will push the FSU defense to stop the run, but Florida State’s offense is just way too powerful to trip this weekend.  Florida State win 45-20.

Nebraska (10-2) vs Wisconsin (7-5) Saturday 8:17pm

Don’t let the difference in records fool you, both teams are garbage.  The Cornhuskers have gotten lucky over and over this season, and is shaping into the B1G’s ‘Team of Destiny.’ Meanwhile Wisconsin had a hard fall from B1G reverence this year when they struggled to score points early in the season.  The Badgers should have won this matchup the first time in Lincoln, and we might not be talking about this matchup at all.  Anyways, Nebraska’s defense is bad, but Wisconsin’s offense is worse.  Montee Ball has gotten on track lately, and that should continue tomorrow night.  The problem is that you will have to pass to beat the Cornhuskers, or at least have the threat of passing.  Wisconsin does not do either.  Ball will rack up his yards 130+, but Wisconsin cannot get to 200 passing yards.  Nebraska’s offense is actually pretty good, especially with Rex Burkhead back in the lineup, and the Badger defense is one of the best in the conference.  Taylor Martinez will make some big plays with his arm in this game.  I think Wisconsin will likely build a lead at halftime, but then Delaney does not want a 5 loss team to embarrass him in the Rose Bowl, so Nebraska will come back and win on a questionable call.  Huskers 27-24.

B1G Week 13 Recap

The college football regular season has come to close with a good weekend of football games.  We now know for sure that Nebraska will be facing Wisconsin in a rematch game.  The Badgers will be fighting for their third straight Rose Bowl berth, while Nebraska is looking for its first B1G championship.  I will break down the conference championship games later this week. 

The Good:

Le’Veon Bell ended his season, and likely his collegiate career, with 266 yards against Minnesota on Saturday.  He single-handedly put the Spartans in a bowl game, and likely a decent draw with how bad the conference is this season.  Bell has been a work horse for Michigan State all year, and without him Dantonio might be looking for a new job. 

Penn State’s big senior day win.  The Nittany Lions were supposed to be horrible this season, but now looking back they could easily have finished 11-1 on the season.  Matt McGloin accepted Coach O’Brien’s offensive scheme quickly and turned into a decent quarterback.  The defense rallied around star LB Mauti and was one of the best units in the conference.  O’Brien has stated he is staying in Happy Valley, but next year will be a big test for the new coach.  If he can get PSU to 6 wins, he should get a choice at any job in the country.

Montee Ball broke the all time touchdown record on Saturday.  This guy decided to come back to school for one last chance to win the Rose Bowl, and without him the Badgers would barely be bowl eligible.  He is a touchdown machine that should be playing on Sundays next year.

The Bad:

The offenses of the preseason B1G championship game matchup (MSU vs Wisconsin).  If either of them did not have their star running backs it would have been an even longer season.  The quarterbacks just did not develop, which at some point should reflect on the coaching staffs.  Now that we are in bowl season, both Wisconsin and Michigan State will be big underdogs but it will be a chance for Ball and Bell to showcase their talents before heading to the NFL.

The Ugly:

This award has to go to the Nebraska vs Iowa game on Friday. Luckily I was shopping for most of the game and didn’t have to put myself through the pain of watching that garbage.  Yes, some people say the weather affected the outcome, but the Huskers are supposed to be a power football team and rain should not affect them running between the tackles.  Yet, they struggled and should have lost to one of the worst teams in the conference.  Of course it wouldn’t have mattered with Michigan losing the next day to Ohio, but Nebraska might be the worst outright conference champion in recent memory.

Week 11 Power Rankings:

1.       Ohio State (no change)

2.       Nebraska (no change)

3.       Michigan (no change)

4.       Penn State (no change)

5.       Northwestern (up 1)

6.       Wisconsin (down 1)

7.       Michigan State (no change)

8.       Minnesota (no change)        

9.       Purdue (up 1)

10.   Indiana (down 1)

11.   Iowa (no change)

12.   Illinois (no change)

Week 13: Ohio Recap

It has taken me a while to write this recap of The Game because I needed to calm my frustrations.  I thought I had come back down to earth on Monday, but then talking to coworkers just stoked the fire again.  If you didn’t see any of the football game on Saturday, you can probably guess that Michigan lost.  It was a more frustrating loss than any of the 3 Rich Rod suffered, because in this one the team gave us a little hope and the coaches ripped it away… over and over again.

Saturday was a tale of two halves.  The first half saw both offenses move the ball at will which led to a 21-20 half time lead for the good guys.  Due to a near red zone fumble and terrible clock management, Ohio was only down 1 point.  The score should not have been closer than 24-17.  The second half saw Michigan’s offense run head first into a brick wall for 15 minutes, while the defense did the best they could to hold the conference’s best offense to 2 field goals.  I don’t want to spend time writing about coaching, but this loss squarely lies with the staff.

In the first half, I was impressed with Michigan’s play calling.  They seemed to mix in Denard’s runs with Devin’s throws well.  The Wolverines also ran a few sets with both Devin and Denard on the field, which gives the defense a lot more to think about.  Yes, Michigan scored on big plays, but they also had 2 good drives thrown in that Ohio got lucky only resulted in 7 points. The offensive line was struggling in pass coverage, but the play action game seemed to make the defense pause just enough for Devin to be mostly clean in the first 2 quarters. 

In the second half I was blown away with the defensive effort.  They just looked bad in the first half.  Ohio could run up the middle for 6+ yards, they were getting little to no pressure on Braxton Miller which allowed him to sit in the pocket and pick apart the secondary.  For a defense that had not given up more than 200 yards through the air, the Bucknuts had 156 in the first half. While the defense really struggled to slow down Carlos Hyde for the entire afternoon, they made Miller the focal point and really limited his rushing attempts.  Mattison started dialing up a few more blitzes which resulted in some big sacks that number 5 was lucky to hold onto. I thought Frank Clark had his best game of the season (like last year’s game against Ohio).  If he can bring that much intensity to every game next season, there is no reason why he can’t be an all conference type player. JT Floyd got picked on in the first possession, but then held his own the rest of the game.  Ohio took a few shots deep, but then settled for screen passes and slants for much of the 2^nd half.  While the Buckeyes were able to get yards in the second half, the defense only surrendered 6 points.  Even though the offense continued to give the ball back to the scarlet and grey in great field position.  Michigan did not pass midfield the entire 2^nd half, meanwhile, Ohio started 4 drives on Michigan’s side of the 50.  It looks like as long as Mattison is coaching on the sidelines in Ann Arbor, Michigan will have one of the best defenses in the conference, if not the country.

I was really disappointed with the play calling in the second half.  I am not going to pretend to be a football strategy genius, but as I sat on my parents couch I correctly called close to 75% of Michigan’s 2^nd half plays.  If I could do that, how much better was the Buckeye defensive coaching staff picking out plays?  It is hard to gain yards on any team if they know the exact play that is coming.  Yes, Devin did not have a good half of football, he became indecisive and a number of throws were a step or two late which let the defense correct itself and defend the pass.  But, even now 4 days after the game, I am at a loss of the 2^nd half offensive game plan.  I know we should give the Borges a little more time to get “the guys he wants to run his offense,” but watching on Saturday was extremely confusing and frustrating.  Why do we completely open up the playbook for the lowly Iowa Hawkeyes only one week prior, then shut it tight and become Lloyd Carr-ish predictable.  Rich Rod ruined any chance of Michigan implementing the spread offense for a long time, but it doesn’t mean we have to back to the leather helmet era. 

Looking ahead, Michigan blew its good chance of going to back-to-back BCS games with a win on Saturday, and now will likely have to settle for the Capital One Bowl where they will play a better team than Nebraska in the Rose Bowl.  I guess that means that the B1G could bring that trophy home again.  The Wolverines will likely play Georgia, LSU, South Carolina, or Texas A&M.  Those matchups look daunting, but hopefully with enough time to prepare Michigan can bounce back for a big win against a top 10 SEC team (unlike what happened in Dallas to open the season).  Even though there is still the bowl game to get excited for, my focus has shifted to basketball season and the book has closed on the frustrating 2012 Michigan football season.

Week 13: Ohio Preview

Ohio week is upon us, and I know you have been missing some of the crap talking about the Bucknuts or Suckeyes. Columbus is located in the center of the underwear state, which is convenient because that is where the skid marks are found.  I could keep going with the insults, but I have some pre-game analysis that needs to be done before I head home for the holidays.  If you need some more you can look back at my post from last year that details some of the things that I like more than Buckeyes. 

Brady Hoke is making his first trip to enemy territory as the Michigan head coach, and I can only imagine how much joy a win this weekend would bring him and this team.  Ohio is ranked number 4 in the AP poll right now, and still has an outside shot at being the AP number 1 by mid-January.  Yes, Saturday will be their last game, but they could be the only unbeaten team by season’s end.  This weekend will also mark Urban Whiner’s first game in the rivalry, and we know how much fun it is to beat him.  This matchup marks one team that has played a very soft schedule and won each game they should have (no matter how ugly) against the other that has played one of the toughest schedules which has resulted in a worse record than the play on the field would indicate.  Michigan could finish as the best 5 loss team ever in college football (with losses to 3 teams in the top 5, and the other two to top 10 teams), while Ohio could be one of the worst undefeated teams in recent memory.  The Game and the Big Ten desperately need a hard fought, well played, football game on Saturday to bring this rivalry back to national prominence again.

Ohio Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense

The Buckeyes are one of the conference’s best running teams with Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde.  Miller will likely be a Heisman finalist, invited to New York next month, and Hyde is a type of player that I would guess the fans down south really appreciate.  They have already installed Meyer’s running spread offensive system that uses a lot of zone read plays.  This also means that Miller will have 15+ designated runs on the afternoon as well.  Hyde is a bruising type of running back, the kind that the Michigan defense has not had success slowing down so far this season.  He likely will not attack the edge too much, which will leave their focus on Miller.  At this point in Braxton’s career, he is a running back who can throw.  While he might not be as quick as Denard, he is close to as fast.  If the Michigan defense allows him to break the pocket on a scramble or designed run plays, they might be chasing him for a while.  As a freshman, Miller had a great performance in The Game, the Wolverines used Desmond Morgan to spy on him all game and it did not work.  Mattison will likely have to implement a different scheme to slow down this weapon.  Hopefully Morgan is back on Saturday because Michigan will lean heavily on him and Jake Ryan to contain number 5.  I don’t think this game will be as much of a shootout as last year, but the Wolverine defense will likely struggle to keep Ohio under 170 yards on the ground.  Advantage Ohio.

Ohio Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense

The passing attack in Columbus is still a work in progress.  Miller’s fundamentals seem to fall apart when he is pressured which results in a lot of errant throws.  Like every year, however, Ohio has a lot of talent, and their receivers have improved throughout the season.  Devin Smith is a deep threat that will be a tough matchup for Floyd or Taylor.  Stonebrunner has been converted to a receiver this year, and is sure-handed and big bodied.  Braxton seems to have a very good connection to Smith, and will likely try a few deep balls to him during the game.  If Michigan can get some pressure in the face of Miller, the Wolverines will likely come away with a turnover or two and more than a few punts.  The problem with this strategy, though, is Michigan has struggled to get pressure on any quarterback this season without dialing up blitzes.  The Wolverines cannot just sit back and let Miller gash them for chunks of yards, they will need to apply some pressure.  Mattison is not a coach who likes to just sit back and watch the spread and shred.  I think a few blitzes will get through, but not enough to completely stifle the Buckeye passing attack (like last week).  Advantage Ohio.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Ohio Defense

The Michigan rushing attack has been struggling this season, and just when it seemed to be improving Toussaint get seriously injured and will miss the rest of the season.  The Wolverines will likely mix and match at running back with Denard, Rawls, Smith, and even possibly Hayes. Add that to the fact that Devin can scramble for 7+ yards a clip and Michigan should be able to keep the Ohio defense guessing.  The offensive line has been a big disappointment this year in the run blocking category, and that is likely to change when going up against Hankins, Simon, and company.  At this point, a successful day will be how effective is the running attack.  We know it is very unlikely to rush for 200+ yards on Saturday, but if it allows Borges to dial up some play action passes it is a successful day.  I like using Denard to offset Rawls, and there are quite a few wrinkles that can be introduced with both Denard and Devin in the back field. Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Ohio Pass Defense

The Michigan passing attack has taken a huge step forward the past 3 weeks with Devin under center.  Yes, the defenses were not the best, but anytime you throw for almost 900 yards in 3 games you have to give some credit to the guy doing the throwing. It just looks like Gardner is very comfortable under center in this offense, and Borges is confident with number 12 taking the snaps.  The offensive plan seems to be closer to what he was brought here to run.  The receivers are also stepping up big the past few weeks, Roundtree has had his best month since 2010.  Ohio’s big problem in the non-conference was their lack of pass rush, but now that has turned into quite the strength.  John Simon leads the league in sacks this season.  He is just a good football player.  I have a strange feeling that Borges will implement some Denard throws this week, either when he is lined up at quarterback running the zone read or at running back.  I got the impression that the coaching staff unleashed number 16 in the backfield to give Meyer something more to think about, but there was no threat of Denard passing.  I would actually be surprised if he wasn’t asked to at least attempt a pass or two on Saturday.  There is some big play potential there.  The Buckeye secondary can create turnovers, but in terms of yardage and completion percentage this unit is one of the worst in the Big Ten.  I expect Michigan to have another good game through the air, but with at least interception.  If the interception is in a critical time, then Michigan might be in trouble, if it only happens as a hail mary at the end of the first half I will take it. Advantage Michigan.

I am very excited for this football game.  I think the Buckeyes are a more complete team at this point in the season, and them playing at home is a big advantage.  We don’t know what to expect from Devin yet though, if he continues on the path he has been on the past 3 games he will put himself into Michigan lore by Saturday evening.  I want to hope that the past weeks were more because Gardner is a very good quarterback, but am worried that it had more to do with the defenses.  I don’t think either defense is good enough to shut down the other, but I expect there to be a few more punts than last year.  The big matchup will be how does Michigan defend Braxton Miller, because if he has a game like he did last week I have no doubts that Michigan will win this game.  I just don’t think the Wolverine defense can do that on a consistent basis.  I am also excited to see how Ohio tries to defend Michigan’s different offensive looks.  This game will likely come down to the turnover margin and the running game.  Ohio will likely finish with more rush yards, but will Michigan be able to move the ball effectively on the ground.  I think the combination of Denard and Devin is better than Miller, and while both make mistakes Braxton’s will be more costly.  Michigan 27 Ohio 24.

B1G Week 13 Preview

The Big Ten’s final week is here already, man this season flew by.  There is a lot to play for this week, mostly how much money the conference will rake in from bowl games.  So that means Commissioner Delaney will be watching closely.  I think my picks this year have held up pretty well, maybe next season I will keep track to compete with the “experts”. Let’s get to it.

Nebraska (9-2) @ Iowa (4-7) Friday 12:00pm

As much as I would like to see the Hawkeyes win this game, and I will be rooting hard for them as I do some Black Friday and pre-The Game shopping, Iowa looks like a team that just wants this season to end.  Yes, this is a little rivalry and Iowa has not performed well in rivalry games the past few seasons, but they have absolutely nothing to play for. On the other side, the Huskers can smell their gift-wrapped ticket to Indy that awaits them after the game.  Taylor Martinez will put up Devin Gardner type numbers against the Hawkeyes as Nebraska rolls to Indy as a huge favorite for the Rose Bowl.

Illinois (2-9) @ Northwestern (8-3) Saturday 12:00pm

Yes the Wildcats are beat up, and Illinois isn’t.  The problem is that there are some Chicago high school teams with more talent than the Illini.  Illinois will be ready to put the final nail in this awful season, and the Wildcats will nicely oblige.  No matter which quarterback plays most of the game for the fighting Fitzgerald’s, Northwestern will put up over 30 points.  Illinois is a train wreck, and the improved Wildcat defense will hold them under 13.  Depending on the outcome of The Game, this could clinch Northwestern’s ticket to the Capital One Bowl. 

Indiana (4-7) @ Purdue (5-6) Saturday 12:00pm

This is a game that ole money-bags will be watching closely, and pulling for the Boilermakers to win The Bucket.  Purdue can clinch a bowl game with a win on Saturday and delay Hope’s firing, the problem is that Indiana will take this rivalry just as serious as Purdue and a 5 win Hoosier season looks like a success.  I think Coffman will have a big game on the Boiler secondary and put up over 24 points.  The problem is that the Indiana defense might be the worst in the conference.  Purdue should be able to grind out a lot of yards on the ground or through the air.  I think this game will be very close, and the smell of a bowl game will push the Boilermakers to a late win.  I would like to see the Hoosiers end their losing streak to the in-state rivals though.

Michigan State (5-6) @ Minnesota (6-5) Saturday 3:30pm

Another game that Delaney will be watching intently will the under achieving Spartans against the over achieving Gophers.  Who would have thought that coming into the final game of the season that Michigan State would be playing for its post season life, while Minnesota already has clinched.  Coach Dantonio guaranteed a victory in this game, which is interesting because their offense can barely score in warm-ups.  The problem is Minnesota has a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and the Spartans still have Le’Veon Bell.  He could probably put up enough points by himself to put his team into some 5 word bowl game.  I think the Gophers will keep the game close, because a 7 win season could push them into a New Year’s Day bowl… as I shiver. In the end Maxwell makes at least one nice throw for a touchdown, and Bell carries the ball over 30 times for the win. Delaney is 2 for 2 at this point.

Wisconsin (7-4) @ Penn State (7-4) Saturday 3:30pm

This is a pseudo game of the week with The Game on at noon, and there is not much to play for in this one.  However, I still think it is an important game. A Wisconsin win will give the Big Ten a little more interesting championship game, but a Penn State win should ensure that Bill O’Brien wins the coach of the year and the Nittany Lions could carry the momentum over to recruiting.  I was not impressed with the Badger offense last week, outside of Montee Ball.  The quarterback situation is in shambles and I doubt they will be able to stretch the field at all in the passing game.  McGloin is coming off of a career day last week and will be playing in front of the home crowd for the last time.  Even though Wisconsin’s defense is a very stout unit, I think McGloin finds Robinson for some big gains.  It will be interesting to see how the Lion defense plays without Mauti.  I think they will be solid in the passing game, and Penn State has had a good run defense for quite some time.  Ball breaks the touchdown record, but The Nittany Lion seniors get a final win to end their careers. 

Michigan Basketball 2012-2013 Preview

If you follow my blog at all you might think that football is my favorite sport, and wrong you would be.  Basketball is number one in my heart, and I apologize for getting this post out so late.  The past few weeks have been pretty crazy, so hopefully moving forward I will be able to tackle more Michigan and college basketball.  If you don’t follow college basketball until the NCAA tournament, you might have missed the Wolverine’s strong start to the season. They currently are sitting at 3-0 and number 4 in the nation, which happens to be the highest ranking that I have ever remembered. The only scary part about this is the B1G has 3 teams in the top 4 (Indiana and Ohio State).  We have time to dive into their rosters and schemes when Michigan matches up with them in a few months, but for now it is just non-conference season. 

The Wolverines have a better non-conference schedule this year for their “tournament resume,” although hopefully this team will be nowhere near the bubble and the schedule is the difference between a 1,2, or 3 seed. The highlights before Big Ten play kicks off are NC State, which started ranked in the top 10 but has lost already, Arkansas at home to get some revenge from last year, West Virginia, Pittsburgh in NYC as part of the preseason NIT.  The Wolverines also play the directional Michigan schools this season too, which will be fun to see in the new Crisler Center. 

So far this season one thing is very clear to me, this is the deepest team that Coach Beilein has ever had in Ann Arbor (possibly ever) and this is the most athletic team that I can truly remember donning the maize and blue.  Just those two words have the makings of a very good basketball team.  Offensively, Michigan has numerous weapons, and they have started the season playing very well together.  Returning play-makers include Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr, Jordan Morgan, and Jon Horford.  Lately, Michigan basketball has not had even 4 guys of this caliber heading into the start of a season.  Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr have the scoring ability to be All-American contenders, and at the very least all conference type players.  Jordan Morgan has slimmed down in the off season and has turned into a very solid B1G center.  Jon Horford is coming back from an injury red-shirt season, but already had played valuable minutes and might be a more raw athletic talent than Morgan.  It is very possible that the Wolverines could get 42+ points per game just from these 4 guys. 

The new faces include Mitch McGary, Glen Robinson III, Nick Stauskas, Spike Albrecht, and Carl Levert.  The first two guys are two of the best incoming freshman in the conference.  At this point in the season it looks like McGary is a little out of shape still, but is already the best rebounder on the team.  GRIII on the other hand has come in ready to dominate already.  He is looking like a future lottery pick in the NBA draft.  Nick Stauskas is a dead eye shooter from the outside that is surprisingly athletic and just has a knack for scoring points. Spike Albrecht looks college ready as a backup point guard, which this team desperately needs, and Levert will likely redshirt.

This team gets up and down the court with ease, which should make the Indiana vs Michigan matchups this season extremely fun to watch.  Tim Hardaway seems to have improved in areas to make him a more complete player (rebounding, defense, and passing), and so far he has been very efficient on the offensive end.  John Beilein has a team here that could average close to 80 points a game for the entire season, and not just non-conference.  The goal here though will be for the team to play under control and not go too fast because when Burke, Hardaway, Robinson, and McGary are on the floor at the same time a basketball court cannot contain the speed.  

On the defensive end of the floor, Michigan needs to make the most improvement.  If things do not sure up over the course of the season, then they might have to average 80 a game to be a favored seed (1-4).  The freshman are still learning the different defensive schemes, and game experience should help them get up to speed quickly.  Right now the team seems a little lazy on defense.  Which makes sense, because scoring the basketball comes easy for everyone on this team that sees meaningful minutes, but defense takes effort and practice.  That is the biggest reason why Anthony Davis was such a phenom last season.  I have no doubts that this will improve with the more games that are played. 

Overall, this is going to be a very fun team to watch.  It is not too often that a high number of people are ready for the disappointing football season to be over so they can focus on the cagers.  The day has finally come where a Michigan basketball team matches up with everyone on their schedule, and there really isn’t a team that I can pencil in a loss at this point.  That is a very good feeling as a fan. 

Week 13 Upset Alert

My upset picks have been a little lacking the past 2 weeks.  I did pick Syracuse over Louisville, but laughed at people who thought Texas A&M even had a chance against Alabama.  Then this past week I didn’t even write this entry because I wasn’t drawn to any of the games.  So, let’s try this again in Week 13. 

Rutgers @ Pittsburgh Saturday 12:00pm

I know the Scarlet Knights are excited to join the Big Ten, but I am not very impressed with their football team.  I have seen Pitt improve though out this season with a win over Virginia Tech and a game they should have won in South Bend.  I think Paul Chryst’s bunch can pull off this upset this week. 

Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma Saturday 3:30pm

The Sooners were lucky to escape Morgantown with a win last week, and if West Virginia had any semblance of a defense they would have likely got blown out.  Oklahoma State is playing very well right now.  Their offense has improved dramatically throughout the season, and their defense is again forcing turnovers like last year.  I think the Cowboys can go on the road and pull the upset.

Stanford @ UCLA Saturday 6:30pm

I know that Stanford is rated higher than the Bruins right now, but I wouldn’t consider this a huge upset.  A UCLA win, however, will put Oregon into the Pac12 championship game against UCLA for the 2^nd straight season.   UCLA is playing extremely well right now, and I just don’t think Stanford is that good.  I know their defense played their best game of the season last week in Eugene, but I don’t know if they can replicate it on the road again.  James Franklin has become one of the best running backs in the country, and freshman quarterback Hundley continues to improve.  Also, this is another game that would help the Pac12 not get a 2^nd BCS team, which could leave a spot open for my own team, so I might be a little biased. J

Notre Dame @ USC Saturday 8:00pm

I am sorry, but I cannot stand Notre Dame and their “dream season.”  The so-called toughest schedule in the nation preseason is turning out to be very average.  The Irish seem to get every break go their way when a game is close.  One part of me doesn’t want to see another all SEC championship game, but I think a bigger part of me doesn’t want to see the purple-people-eater and golden domes playing for a meaningful game ever. It is not 1990. USC seems to have checked in this season and Matt Barkley is out for this game, but Notre Dame is one of the Trojan’s big rivals.  I think they keep it close, and who knows what can happen when Notre Dame finally plays an offense that has potential to put up points.  Logically I still don’t know who to root for in this one, but I will likely end up screaming at the tv for USC to destroy Kelly and company.

On a side note I think Florida State will beat Florida too, but I don’t really consider the number 10 team beating number 4 at home a huge upset.  Especially when I think the Gators are over-rated by a couple spots and the Seminoles under-rated by a similar amount.

B1G Week 12 Recap

The post-season berths are looking more defined after week 12, and it is looking like it will be a very rough bowl season for the B1G again.  Nebraska moved closer to playing for a conference championship in just their second year in the league, and Ohio State continues to feel stupid about not taking a bowl ban last season. 

The Good:

The Ohio State vs Wisconsin game was one of the first well played football games in the conference this entire season.  Yes, it was low scoring, but it wasn’t sloppy. Both defenses really stepped up and dominated the ball game.  I was really impressed with John Simon from OSU who now leads the league in sacks. The Badgers did a great job in slowing down the dominant Buckeye offense as well, too bad their offense couldn’t help them out much.

Northwestern finally held onto a 4^th quarter lead in East Lansing in what was a close to unwatchable game.  The Wildcats are going to play in the Capital One or Outback Bowl it looks like at this point, which means they will play an SEC team close to the top 10.  Man, that will be about as bad as if Nebraska plays Oregon in the Rose Bowl. 

Matt McGloin set the Penn State record for passing touchdowns on Saturday.  As a former walk-on, this is quite the feat.  I know they have changed their offensive mind-set, and this record will likely not stay around too long, but congratualation to him.  McGloin put up 395 yards against Indiana, and Penn State continues to impress.

The Bad:

Michigan State is a train wreck, and I think they are going to struggle on the road against Minnesota.  If it wasn’t for their surprising win against Wisconsin earlier this season, they would be eliminated from bowl contention already.  This team just did not improve as the season went on, which is usually a reflection on the coaching staff.  How much longer will the Sparty faithful put up with average at best, especially when Narduzzi will be sought after again this offseason?

The Ugly:

The Purdue vs Illinois pillow fight.  Did anyone even watch this garbage?  How do you beat the Illini by 3 points?  I thought that was a glorified scrimmage.  The sad thing is that Purdue can clinch a bowl game with a win this weekend against Indiana.  Go Big Ten!

 

Week 11 Power Rankings:

1.       Ohio State (no change)

2.       Nebraska (no change)

3.       Michigan (no change)

4.       Penn State (no change)

5.       Wisconsin (no change)

6.       Northwestern (no change)

7.       Michigan State (no change)

8.       Minnesota (no change)         Man the bottom 5 teams are atrocious

9.       Indiana (no change)

10.   Purdue (no change)

11.   Iowa (no change)

12.   Illinois (no change)

Week 12: Iowa Recap

Michigan moved to 8-3 on the season and 6 Big Ten wins with their blowout win against Iowa on Saturday.  It was one of those games that everything seemed to go right on the offensive side of the ball (outside of Toussaint breaking his lower leg/ankle).  The defense started a little sluggish, but bounced back to stifle the Hawkeyes in the middle two quarters.  Even though the Wolverine offense has looked impressive the past 3 weeks with Gardner at the helm, I still don’t know what to expect moving forward.  Yes, Ohio State’s defense is not that good, but it is a lot better than Iowa, Northwestern, or Minnesota.  Can Devin really pull his magic for a 4^th straight week?  Back to this past weekend, Michigan did what is was supposed to against Iowa and remain tied at the top of the Legend’s Division. 

The defense did not look good in the first quarter, and really struggled for most of the game defending the Hawkeye tight ends.  Iowa finished without a reception from a wide receiver for the entire game.  They ran their usual 6-7 yard passing routes, but attacked the middle of the field against Demens, Ross, and Ryan.  The defensive line is still struggling to get pressure on the quarterback.  The Iowa offensive line is just bad, but at least the maize and blue front 4 held their ground.  The problem with running 2 TEs for the game is that Michigan was not able to blitz as much as Mattison would like to.  Northwestern definitely gave Ohio State a game plan to attack the defense with (option plays), but Iowa might have been on to something as well.  Michigan will need to get more pressure on Braxton Miller (like Wisconsin did) to have any chance of keeping Ohio State under 28 points.

Offensively, Michigan was hitting on all cylinders again.  Denard played for a lot of the game in different positions around the field.  It was great to see number 16 one last time in the Big House, especially in a position where he becomes very difficult to game plan for.  By putting Devin and Denard on the field at the same time, it gives the defense 3 players to worry about (Roundtree also).  I believe Borges brought these formations out the week before Ohio State just to give the Buckeyes more to think about when watching game film.  It will be interesting if Denard can throw the ball a little bit by Saturday to give Michigan all kinds of looks on offense.  The offensive line still was not dominant, but Devin can keep plays alive with his feet and move the pocket around that it takes some pressure off the guys in front.  The most impressive part of the last 3 games has been the play of the wide receivers.  Roundtree, Gallon, and Dileo have really stepped up to become feared play makers.  If Devin can handle the pressure of The Game in the ‘Shoe, next weekend should be a really fun game to watch. 

Looking ahead, the Wolverines finish their 2012 campaign with a matchup against the hated Buckeyes.  Ohio State is still undefeated, mostly due to their less than impressive schedule and the awfulness of the conference.  I think Michigan is a tad better than their 20 ranking, but I also think Ohio State is a tad worse than theirs.  Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000, and a win this weekend would be Brady Hoke’s best in his 2 year career.  It would also guarantee him an even longer leash with the Michigan faithful.  The defense will have to step up and play better on the road than they have the past 2 weeks, but slowing down the Buckeyes is not as impossible as most once thought.  The problem is they have struggled to score points twice on the road (Michigan State and Wisconsin), but this weekend is at home where Braxton Miller is much more comfortable.  We might be looking at another high scoring showdown. 

Week 12: Iowa Preview

Michigan is looking to end their 3 game losing streak against Iowa today.  The Hawkeyes are having quite the down year so far, but the Wolverines cannot overlook them.  Michigan is trying to keep its very small hopes alive for a Fiesta Bowl invite or at the very least the Capital One Bowl.

Iowa Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The running back position has been cursed in Iowa City over the past few years, and they bring their depleted runners into Ann Arbor.  They will either be playing former walk-on Mark Weisman or 3rd string running back Damon Bullock.  Either way, the Hawkeye offensive line is just plain bad.  They weren't very good to start the year, but have 2 new players in the rotation and a guard that has switched to tackle.  Michigan should control the line of scrimmage for most of the game. Look for Will Campbell and Quinton Washington to have big games today.  Advantage Michigan.

Iowa Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
James Vandenberg has been disappointing this entire season, but Iowa always plays well against Big Blue so I have no reason to believe this won't be the case again this year.  The Hawkeyes have limited deep threat options, but will run 6 yard routes to tight ends all game long.  The key will be to keep Iowa in 3rd and long situations, because they will still try to run the 6 yard routes. The Michigan cornerbacks should be able to stay in man coverage and have success. The key here will be can Mattison dial up enough effective blitzes to pressure Vandenberg.  The Michigan pass rush has been pretty weak this season without called blitzes. I think Jake Ryan, Frank Clark, and Jordan Kovacs will have a big day in the back field.  Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Iowa Rush Defense
Fitz Toussaint looked a little better last week, but has struggled for much of the season.  If Denard plays  then Michigan should be able to run the ball effectively.  If he doesn't Michigan will likely struggle to get to 150 yards against the middle of the road defense.  Iowa's best defender is a cornerback, and will not be able to come down and help with the running game much in this game.  The Michigan offensive line should be able to open up holes in this game.  It will be interesting to see the game plan Borges comes with the week before Ohio State, he might try a few things to make Urban think a little more.  Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Iowa Pass Defense
Again this section has a lot to do with if Denard plays quarterback and is asked to throw the ball.  If Devin is the quarterback then Michigan should be able to pass at will against Iowa.  Micah Hyde is one of the best cornerbacks in the conference, but he cannot cover everyone.  The rest of the defensive secondary is below average, including a young inexperienced safety that Borges will likely go after a few times. I think Devin will continue his impressive passing day (250+ yards). Advantage Michigan.

Alright folks, Iowa is not that good.  Michigan should be able to score nearly at will while shutting down the Iowa offense.  The problem is that Ferentz coaches well against the Wolverines and Michigan could beat themselves.  I think the Wolverines will start slow on Senior Day, possibly looking ahead to Ohio State but will bounce back for a big win.  Michigan 45 - Iowa 13.

B1G Week 12 Preview

It is the pent-ultimate week of the college football regular season.  While the Legend's Division is still technically not clinched yet, we pretty much know which teams we are going to watch in Indianapolis next month.  Today more teams can keep their bowl hopes alive or even clinch a post-season berth.

Northwestern (7-3) @ Michigan State (5-5) Saturday 12:00pm
Northwestern is coming off another heart breaking loss last weekend in the mitten, it will be interesting to see how they respond today in East Lansing.  To be honest, I was more frustrated with the Michigan effort last weekend than the Northwestern talent.  I still do not think the Wildcats are that good of a team.  Michigan State completely Spartied themselves in their last game, so it will also be interesting to see how they bounce back.  They are looking to go bowling for a 6th straight year, and a win today would clinch that bowl.  I think the Spartan defense will not have as much problems with the Northwestern rushing attack as Michigan did last week.  I also don't think the Wildcats be able to stop Le'Veon Bell.  Michigan State wins easily.

Indiana (4-6) @ Penn State (6-4) Saturday 12:00pm
The Hoosiers can continue their improbable journey to a bowl game with a win in Happy Valley today.  The problem is the Badgers just steam rolled Indiana last week, and gave everyone a clear game plan in how to dominate the crimson and cream. After the refs completely blew a huge call in Lincoln last week, I think the Nittany Lions will be anxious to get back on the field and take their frustrations out on Indiana.  The Penn State offense has a field day at home, and Indiana just cannot score enough on the Lion defense.
 
Minnesota (6-4) @ Nebraska (8-2) Saturday 3:30pm
Oh please Minnesota get to 7 wins this week.  The Golden Gophers are next in line to go to the biggest home field advantage in America, even the refs play for the Huskers.  As the season goes on, I am starting to dislike Nebraska more and more, and think that Bo Pelini is a complete gump.  I would love Minnesota to come in and keep this game close, but the Husker offense is just too good.  The Gophers might be able to score a few points in the first half, but by the end of the game Taylor Martinez and company continue to roll by putting 40+ on Minnesota.

Ohio State (10-0) @ Wisconsin (7-3) Saturday 3:30pm
In this week's game of the week, Ohio State looks to remain unbeaten for the showdown with the maize and blue next week.  Meanwhile, the Badgers look to continue their momentum into Indianapolis.  This matchup has become quite the rivalry over the past couple of years, and I doubt this year will disappoint.  Ohio State will make the new Badger quarterback beat them through the air, likely by putting 8 guys in the box for most of the game.  If Monte Ball can still get 120+ yards and a couple of scores, this dude has to win the Doak Walker.  I don't think the Buckeyes will be able to completely shut down Wisconsin.  I think Braxton Miller will have another big day against the slow Badger defense.  In the end, I just think the Buckeye offense is too powerful for Wisconsin and they continue their dream sanction season.  Don't look now, but the B1G could have a 5 loss Wisconsin team in the Rose Bowl.  That is exciting.

Purdue (4-6) @ Illinois (2-8) Saturday 3:30pm
The show down is finally here.  The battle of complete losers.  I don't know who will spend the time to watch this game, because it will be a glorified pillow fights.  The Boilers wrecked their winless B1G record last week with a win over Iowa, so they are looking for back to back wins and keep their bowl hopes alive.  Illinois is just a train wreck and putting them on tv anymore is just punishment for the football fans.  Somehow Purdue will score more than Illinois and move a game closer to a bowl game.

B1G Week 11 Recap

With only 2 weeks left of the B1G season, both division races look to be wrapped up.  Wisconsin has clinched its trip to Indianapolis, and Nebraska has 2 cupcakes remaining to force the rematch.  Just think back after week 2 of the season, when Wisconsin lost to Oregon State and Nebraska got shelled by UCLA.  Now these two teams will be playing again for a trip to the Rose Bowl.  Yes, both squads have improved as the season has gone on, but both are nowhere close to elite.  And the frustrating part for Michigan fans is that on a neutral field, I think the Wolverines soundly beat both teams. Anyways, enough whining, this last week of B1G play saw Purdue keep its small bowl hopes alive with an improbable win against Iowa.  Indiana did not put up any fight against Wisconsin, and Minnesota became bowl eligible. 

The Good:

Wisconsin’s rushing attack is starting to take off again.  The Badgers rushed for over 540 yards against Indiana. I know the Hoosier defense is bad, but that is still a lot of yards.  The way the two championship game teams are playing, I would give a large advantage to Wisconsin at this point in the season. 

Minnesota becomes bowl eligible in Jerry Kill’s second season with the Gophers.  This is a big accomplishment.  Minnesota is definitely improving as a program, and a bowl game will mean a lot these players and the coaching staff. 

The Bad:

Iowa losing to Purdue.  The Boilermakers had all but given up on this season, but somehow the Hawkeyes found a way to lose the game. I had it pegged as a battle of which team wants to lose less, and the Hawkeyes outdid themselves.  Does this put Coach Ferentz on the hot seat now?

The Ugly:

I don’t want to complain about the refs too much, but the call that they missed in Lincoln on Saturday afternoon is just unacceptable.  I know I am a little biased with the outcome of that game, but a mistake like that cannot happen with instant replay.  I am not sure what they were looking at that let them keep the touchdown as a fumble.  This wasn’t a division II game here, these guys get paid a lot of money to ref national games.  Especially when this game had a big stake in which team would go to the Rose Bowl.  There have been some weird things that have happened in Lincoln this season, and lucky for the rest of us we might get to watch them in Pasadena for the 2^nd time this year against Notre Dame.  I just got a little sick.

Week 11 Power Rankings:

1.       Ohio State (no change)

2.       Nebraska (no change)

3.       Michigan (up 1)

4.       Penn State (down 1)

5.       Wisconsin (up 1)

6.       Northwestern (down 1)

7.       Michigan State (no change)

8.       Minnesota (up 1)

9.       Indiana (down 1)

10.   Purdue (up 1)

11.   Iowa (down 1)

12.   Illinois (no change)

Week 11: Northwestern Recap

I was lucky enough to get to watch most of the Michigan football game while in Kansas over the weekend.  On a side note, it is pretty amazing that the entire country gets to watch almost every Michigan game every season.  The Wolverines struggled all game in slowing down the Wildcat offense, whether it was Kain Coulter or Trevor Siemian at quarterback.  After most people, including myself, wrote off the game as another frustrating loss, a miracle happened and somehow the Wolverines pulled out the game.

I was disappointed with the option defense for the 2^nd time this season, and I would be very surprised if Urban Meyer and company do not try to exploit that weakness next week. The Northwestern offensive line is not very good, so their game plan was to get to the edge and make people miss tackles.  It worked well all afternoon.  Different defenders struggled to keep contain on the edge, and Northwestern was able to continually gouge the Michigan defense. Jake Ryan and Desmond Morgan had one of their worst games of the season, which put a lot of pressure on the secondary to step up and make tackles.  This resulted in Kovacs and Gordon leading the team in tackles, which is not a good sign in a Mattison-coached defense.  This unit will have to step up the next two weeks to regain its footings as one of the conference’s best.

Devin Gardner was impressive again, outside of the one terrible interception.  It looks like Al Borges is a lot more comfortable with Gardner under center, and Michigan actually has a passing attack again.  The receivers are having season-best games with Gardner throwing them the ball.  If the maize and blue had any type of running attack, this offense would be close to unstoppable right now.  I was impressed with the hard counts at the line of scrimmage which have worked 5 times in just two games.  Also, Devin’s decision-making seems to be more certain than Denard’s.  Gardner does not wait in the pocket too long before scrambling, and so far these scrambles are averaging near 7 yards.  It is giving me a lot of hope for next year’s team.  We don’t know when Denard will be back in the lineup, but I think we all can agree that hopefully he will be able to see the field for at least one play this weekend on Senior Day. It is pretty unique to have 2 different quarterbacks win the Big Ten player of the week in one season, and I am just glad that I don’t have to make the decision between Devin and Denard once number 16 is fully healthy again.

Looking forward, this team cannot look past Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are just plain bad this season, and the Wolverines should be able to rest some starters in the 4^th quarter.  The problem is that Michigan has lost its past 3 games against the black and gold, which means no senior has beaten these guys.  A win on Saturday and Brady Hoke will continue his 2 season-long winning streak in the Big House, something that I don’t remember happening.  The defense should be looking for a bounce back game, and Iowa is a perfect team for it.  The Hawkeyes don’t have the team speed to really hurt our defense, and they don’t run the option.  Hopefully Michigan starts in attack mode and does not let Iowa in the game from the beginning.  A word for the fans attending the game, please give the seniors a huge ovation as they are announced, not just Denard.  These guys stuck around the program and saw it in its worst state in my lifetime, and now they could be looking at back-to-back BCS games.  Who would have thought it was possible January 2011?

Week 11: Northwestern Preview

Michigan returns home after a 2 week road trip, and their Rose Bowl hopes are only an ember at this point in the season.  They do however have 2 games left in the Big House, where they can finish undefeated for a 2^nd straight season.  The Wolverines are looking to win their remaining games and head into the Capital One Bowl with some momentum. This week the maize and blue are taking on the November Northwestern Wildcats which is turning out to be the best opposing team to play in Ann Arbor this season. 

Northwestern Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense

The Wildcats are a run first team, and even more so when Kain Colter is their starting quarterback.  Venric Mark has blossomed into one of the premier backs in this league, and it will take a quality defensive effort to slow down Northwestern.  However, the purple cats have not faced a defense like Michigan’s yet on the season.  Yes, Penn State is close, and they really struggled in Happy Valley.  The Wolverines are a completely different animal at this point in the year.  Most of the players continue to improve each game, and have turned into borderline all-conference type players.  I think the NW offensive line is not able to push back Michigan’s front four, which will give the linebackers a good chance to have a great game.  Michigan has struggled against the straight option this season, so it will be interesting if Coach Fitzgerald tries to exploit that more.  Mark or Colter might break a couple runs over 20 yards, but I would be really surprised if they are able to continually chip away with a 5+ ypc for an entire game.  Advantage Michigan.

Northwestern Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense

With usual starting quarterback, Siemian, hurt and Colter taking over as the main signal caller the Wildcat passing attack should suffer greatly.  Colter is no-doubt Northwestern’s best playmaker, but he is not a good passer.  The Wolverine secondary will be able to play tight coverage, and bring a safety down into the box to help in the run game.  The biggest area of concern for the Michigan defense will be containing Colter in the pocket during a pass rush.  Mattison will likely opt to reduce the amount of blitzes from his defense in this game, or just bring Jake Ryan off the edge but keep Morgan and Demens in contain.  Colter should have plenty of time to throw to his receivers, but he should still struggle to find someone to throw the ball too.  I think Michigan records at least one interception in this game. Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Northwestern Rush Defense

 The biggest factor in this matchup will be if Denard can play and be effective.  If he can, Michigan has a big threat on the ground. If he is sidelined again, a big part of this rushing advantage is taken away.  Still, the Wildcat defensive line has a few above average pass rushers, but they really struggle against defending the run.  I think the Wolverine offensive line will bounce back with a big game on Saturday which should be enough to open holes for one of the running backs.  If Devin has to start again, I think the coaches will implement the Rawls and Toussaint rotating attack.  It seemed to work reasonably well last weekend.  I personally think that Michigan is just plain better in this category, even without Denard, but the difference will be if we accumulate 220 yards on the ground or 120.  Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Northwestern Pass Defense

The Northwestern secondary has struggled for most of the season, they are the weak spot in this defense and are keyed upon in every game plan.  Even with Michigan’s lack of receiving threats, this should again be an area the maize and blue are able to exploit.  If Denard plays, the underneath routes will be there for Gallon and Roundtree to thrive, but if Devin gets the nod look for Michigan to attack down the field.  Al Borges wants to be able to lull defenses asleep with power running mixed in with some short passing plays, then try the homerun playaction pass.  He is able to do this more with Gardner.  Although he was starting to try with Denard again in the Nebraska game. Michigan’s focus on offense is to always run the ball well, especially with the current quarterback situation.  When Michigan does decide to throw, there should be open receivers. Advantage Michigan.

On paper this looks like a slam dunk win for the Wolverines, but Northwestern is scrappy enough to hang around for most of the game.  The Wildcats are a completely different team in November under Fitzgerald, and even though the game is in the Big House, Michigan will need to execute well to put this one in the win column.  With either quarterback, I think Borges will want to try to stretch the field with some deep throws in the first half.  If they are completed, the running game should be able to take off for Michigan.  I am interested to see the Northwestern game plan on offensive with regards to the passing game.  If the Wolverines are able to slow down the running attack, can Colter complete enough passes to move the sticks?  I don’t think he can.  So if Michigan’s offense struggles to find a rhythm, this will be a close low scoring game.  If Michigan comes out and attacks Northwestern and looks like they did in the middle quarters last week, the Wolverines should be able to pull away.  I am going to go with the offense performing somewhere in between those two, but Michigan pulls out a 24-16 win.