Thursday, December 22, 2011

Michigan State preview

The Spartans started with one of the toughest schedules in recent memory by playing UNC in San Diego then traveling to NYC to play Duke.  State played well at times in both games, but fell short.  Since then they have won 10 in a row against a pretty easy schedule.  They should be 11-2 starting B1G play. 

Michigan St. is led by senior forward Draymod Green (from Saginaw), he is scoring 15 ppg so far.  He is a do everyting type player, and is clearly the Spartans leader on the court.  Draymond also averages 10 rebounds a game so far, and he leads the team in assists. Valporaiso transfer Brandon Wood scores 11 ppg as their second leading scorer. From what I have seen from Wood, he likes to shoot the jump shot, and it isnt falling he will take himself out of the game.  State also has two very talented young players: point guard Keith Appling (scored 49 points in the 2009 state championship game) and freshman forward Branden Dawson.  Offensively, they are led by coach Tom Izzo who calls a play every possession.  One reason why they are so tough to beat come tournament time.  They will run a lot of motion offense, with some high screens.  Currently, their offense goes through Draymond Green.  State has been known to have some great post players, but recently this has not been the case.  They are more perimeter oriented.  When they are executing their plays well, State is very tough to slow down.  Last year their offensive production was hampered by terrible shot selection.  One of State biggest weaknesses though is their bench.  MSU has very little depth and will need their starters to handle most of the scoring. 

Defensively, State mostly just runs a pressure man to man defense.  This has been Tom Izzo's greatest strength as a coach, his ability to teach and coach defense is second to none.  They rotate extremely well, and are seldom out of position for rebounds.  Appling is the teams best defender, and will be asked to cover either the point guard or shooting guard whichever player is better.  Adreian Payne is a very good shot blocker down low, but can get into foul problems since he is still learning how to play defense and not just block shots.  It will be very tough for most teams to get their inside game working well against State. 

How they matchup vs Michigan:  This is one of those games that I cannot wait for.  Trey Burke vs Keith Appling will be a great battle for the next few years.  Both are not the biggest guards, but are extremely athletic and good shooters.  Burke is not on the same defensive level as Appling yet.  It will be telling towards the outcome just by looking at Burke's statline.  If he can limit his turnovers against a great defender, and still find a way to get his standard 10-15 points, Michigan should win.  I think that is a tall task to ask a freshman, especially playing on the road at the Breslin Center. I think Michigan will split with State this year.  (Winning on the road at MSU again will be a good indicator if Michigan is going to compete for the B1G title.)

I think Michigan St is improving well, and will be a very tough game for all B1G teams. I think MSU can finish with 10+ conference wins this year and be in the top 3 of the final standings.

Iowa Preview

Iowa has started the season 7-5 with one more non-conference game vs Boise St.  Their 5 losses have been to average at best teams.  The Hawkeyes will likely finish in the bottom 3 of the B1G this year.  Many people thought they were going to make a jump this year under their 2nd year coach. They return a lot of players, including Melsahn Basabe who almost averaged a double double in his freshman B1G season last year. 

Iowa has been underwhelming so far, and will not get out of the B1G basemnt without dramatic improvements soon. The Hawkeyes struggling scoring the ball at times, especially when they play a team that has athletic guards and uses a pressure defense. 

They are led in scoring by Senior guard Matt Gatens at almost 14 ppg.  He is a 4th year starter, and has increased his scoring each year.  He can knock down the occassional 3 point shot, but will not take over a game.  He is a solid player, but he would not lead most NCAA tourney teams in scoring.  Their second scoring option is sophomore guard Roy Devyn Marble from Southfield.  He is averaging 11 ppg.  He is not a great long range shooter, and usually gets most of his points from driving to the rim.  Basabe averages 9ppg.  Other than these 3 players, Iowa does not have anyone that can take over a game or put up 20 points. 

Iowa likes to play at a high tempo, high possession style game.  So on defense they play very aggressively in their backcourt, which will result in a lot of over-pursuits and easy shots.  Eventually when the Hawkeyes have some more talent on the team, they will be able to create more turnovers and get some easy buckets in transition.  But as of right now, they do not pose a huge threat to shut down most B1G teams. 

How they matchup vs Michigan:  Basabe will be a tough matchup for our big men.  Last year Morgan tried to cover him, but this year Smot and Morgan can switch duties now that Smot has broken the 200 lb mark.  Our guards are more athletic and more talented across the board, and will likely result in a lot of open shot attempts.  Burke will be a very tough matchup for Iowa, and they will likely have to tone down their aggressive defense to guard against the 3 point line with how well we have been shooting the rock so far this year.  If Michigan wants to be recognized as a top tier basketball program in the B1G, they cannot lose games to Iowa this year.  Also, a loss to the Hawkeyes will not look good for the selection committee.

Iowa should be better than Penn St and maybe even Nebraska, but that will be about it. They will be shooting for 5 conference wins.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Indiana

IU has been one of the biggest surprises so far in this young season. They are currently 11-0 with a win over then number 1 Kentucky.  Outside of this game they have not played a really difficult schedule, but still being 11-0 for the first time since 1975-76 season is impressive.  They will have a good test in the B1G opener when they have to play at MSU. 

Indiana is trying to get back to its rich traditions in college basketball.  They have had close to a decade of disappointing seasons, and are looking to finally get back to the NCAA tourney this year.  I think they can do it. 

IU is a young team led by freshman Cody Zeller (his brother is a star for UNC).  He is a 6'11" bean pole that has yet to grow into his frame, but is still leading the team in scoring and rebounding.  He is very athletic and has a high basketball IQ.  It will be fun to see him during conference play against Sullinger, Morgan, Payne, Leonard, etc.  He has surprisingly good hands and a decent 10-15 foot jumper.  They have their own version of Jordan Morgan (Christian Watford) except his range extends past dunks to the 3 point line.  He is the player that hit the buzzer beating shot against Kentucky. He is a big body that requires a body on him at all times.  Zeller most benefits from Watfords presence on the floor, since most centers will have to cover Watford leaving the smaller power forward for Zeller. Their point guard is a hometown kid from Bloomington.  He is a sharp shooter when he is able to get his shot off, but is relatively easy to cover.  The problem is that you will forget about him with the other playmakers on the floor.  This is when he is able to impact a game offensively.  IU's second scoring option is sophomore 6'5" guard Victor Oladipo.  He is very athletic and tough to stop.  IU is one of the national leaders in assists per game, so they are likely to be balanced in scoring.  When somebody gets to 20 in their lineup, something went wrong for the other team.  For being so young, and not far removed from B1G basemen dweller, they are very balanced and do not just rely on a one and done freshman. 

Defensively IU will play a man to man.  They are very susceptible to the back cut since they are so young.  IU is not spectalur on the defensive end, but they are a very good rebounding team.  So a team will likely get open shots vs the Hoosiers, but if they are not knocking these shots down IU will not give up many 2nd chance points. Their bench is still limited for another year (top 3 recruiting class next year), so a complicated motion offense like Michigan will likely stretch this IU team. 

How do they match up against us?  This seems to be the same formula for all of my reviews, but again we will struggle defending the post against IU.  Smot, Morgan, and Horford will likely all be in foul trouble in these games.  Michigan has a huge advantage at the point guard position, so if Burke can apply a lot of pressure on defense, it can limit the low post opportunities. Michigan will need to rebound well, since IU likes to shoot the 3.  They are not as good of a shooting team as us, but can still get hot. These long shots will give long rebounds, so Hardaway and Burke will have to be active on the glass. Offensively, Michigan should be able to score close to 70 against Indiana. Zeller will struggle defending the pick and roll, especially if they choose to hedge after screens.  Look for Burke to have 2 high scoring games against the Hoosiers.  Hardaway and Oladipo will likely cancel each other out.  I think Michigan should win at home, and the road test will be interesting.  IU is a tough place to play, and we have to go their January 5th, right after IU plays MSU and Ohio and will likely be 0-2 in the conference.  A young team could respond poorly or be angry and play some of their best basketball.

Prediction: IU has a favorable schedule down the stretch like Michigan did last year, they could get hot and finish with 10 wins in the conference. I dont know if they have the leadership like we did last year, so starting 0-3 in the conference could be a death wish and IU could implode moving forward only winning 6-7 games.

Illinois

Currently Illinois is 11-1 with their toughest test coming up on Thursday (at #8 Mizzou).  Their only loss was to a decent UNLV team.  I would put UNLV and Virginia on a similar level.  They also have been Gonzaga.  Illinois almost lost to Cornell last night.  The rest of the non-conference schedule has been very weak. 

Illinois has two very good guards (junior DJ Richardson and junior Brandon Paul), and then they have their standard 7 foot goon that has unexpected range (Meyers Leonard). Their bench is pretty thin as of right now, and the remaining 2 starters are more role players and defensive specialists. 

Bruce Weber had built up a national power and was thought of to be one of the top coaches in the country, but that was almost 10 years ago and now he is on the hot seat.  He needs a solid year and to get back into the NCAA tourney to save his job.  Illinois has never lacked talent under Weber, he just seems to lose control of his players by the end of the year. 

Illinois likes to run a high pressure defense that funnels everything to the basket where their amazon will be waiting for blocked shots.  They will try to jump passing routes and will hedge out a long ways on the pick and rolls because of their confidence in the post players.  Leonard has improved drastically since last year (he played with Hardaway over the summer for Team USA).  He just registered his best collegiate performace last night (19 points and 16 rebounds).  He spent most of last season out of position which led to some foul problems, but this year he is staying on the floor for 30+ minutes a night. Think of how our offense would look if Smot could do the same! 

On the offensive end, Illinois likes to move around their center while posting their power forward up.  They like to run high screens with the center, and instead of a normal hard roll to the hoop, the center will subtly roll to the elbow or 3 point line for an open jumper.  Most big guys struggle at reading this and defending since they are so used to hedging out and then recovering towards the hoop not to a jump shooter. The Illinois offense runs through DJ Richardson.  He leads them in scoring and assists.  He will be a tough matchup for many B1G point guards.  He is 6'3" and very strong.  With his size, Illinois will try to post him up against smaller gaurds (like Burke).  The point guard position might be the deepest position in the entire conference with most teams claiming their own should be All Big Ten.

How do they matchup vs Michigan?  Michigan always seems to struggle against the Illini, especially on the road.  I think this is likely to continue this year again.  I would be disappointed if we went 0-2 vs Illinois, so the likely scenario is winning at home.  Burke will have one of his toughest defensive assignments in this game, and will likely concede 15-18 points.  Since Richardson is averaging 15, this is not too bad.  The problem will be if Burke allows Richardson to get the role players involved.  Richardson has the size to collect 7-10 rebounds in a given game, and also have 5+ assists.  This could result in a lot of second chance points. Leonard will be a tough matchup for whoever has to guard him, and he will likely have a double double against our poor low post defense.  Illinois does not mind playing at a slow tempo with us, so any fast break chances need to be converted on both sides.  Our bigs will have to avoid foul trouble for Michigan to win these games. 

On the offensive end, they will struggle with our lineup even more than we will with theirs.  Like most teams in the nation, they lack the athletic wing player to shut down Hardaway.  If he can come out and be aggressive for 40 minutes, he will easily get his 20 points.  If our bigs can stay on the floor, Smot and Morgan can have big offensive days.  With our pick and roll and back cut offense, it will challenge Leonard to play more defense than usual and could tire him out for offense or more importantly put him into foul trouble. I am not worried about our ability to score the basketball against Illinois.  Any of our 5 starters will have the chance to score 15+ points in this game, so it is just a question of who has the hot hand.  What is more likely to happen?  Smot has 2 fouls before the opening tip, and we struggle to contain Leonard all game.  We have to rely on our guards to create points, and when Burke and Hardaway are off the floor we have no offensive consistency or ability. 

Illinois prediction: 9-9 conference record, good enough for an NCAA tourney appearance.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

B1G Basketball preview: Michigan

I have talked about our very own basketball team quite a bit already this year, but I thought I would start my B1G preview with the team that I know the best. 

Michigan should be heading into conference play with a 10-2 record, which is a good start since their conference schedule will be one of the toughest in the nation.  This year they will play 18 B1G games, only playing Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa once.  While you can make this argument most years, this is a pretty difficult slate of games since Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota will most likely finish in the bottom third of the league.  We get a break with only playing one of the top teams (Wisconsin) once.
Michigan has one of the best starting backcourts in the league, and it will be very exciting watching them go up against Ohio, MSU, and Ill which also have top notch guard play.  If Trey Burke can continue to keep his legs fresh, he will likely finish on the All B1G team for point guard, because currently he is outplaying preseason favorite (Aaron Craft from Ohio).  Tim Hardaway will continue to be one of the toughest matchups in the nation, when he wants to be aggressive on the offensive end.  He also could make a push during league play to make the All B1G team.  Zack Novak has been playing the 2 guard for most of the season so far, and has been incredibly efficient on both ends of the floor. He has doubled his 2 point shooting percentage, and perfected a head fake from the 3 point line - pull up jump shot. When he can stay at the 2 guard for most of the game, Michigan will have a lot of success.  We will struggle when he is forced to play the power forward position for any length of time. 

While our guards are the bulk of our output in assists, scoring, steals, leadership, etc., Michigan will win and lose games in the paint.  Jordan Morgan and Evan Smot will need to find ways to stay on the floor for the majority of the game.  Especially now with Horford out with a foot injury.  The only real backup then is McLimans who can knock down a few shots and then give up a layup per possession on defense.  These guys are the defenders of the hoop, and can alter most easy looks.  They are the main source of rebounds, and they ignite the fast break game for the offense.  When either get into foul trouble it instantly creates a mismatch on the defensive end of the floor.  Morgan continues to shoot at an unbelieveable percentage (77%) and has added a consistent mid range jumper to his arsenal.  Smot has become more athletic on offense, and scores at an incredible rate when he is on the floor.  You saw it in the Oakland game, he scored over 20 because he didnt struggle with fouls.  Michigan's season will again exceed expectations if these guys are on the floor. 

Our bench is pretty weak.  We have a few shooters and that is about it.  Carlton has yet to prove anything to Beilein since he barely gets to play.  Stu plays a lot of minutes, but struggles at everything... including shooting some games.  Eso plays hard, but is just not athletic enough for the B1G.  Vogrich is one of our best shooters when he has his confidence. I do like the energy he brings to the floor, and he will need to provide an energy boost in a big game at some point this season.  Horford plays like a 5'6" high school sophomore, and can get shut down by his own lack of hands and basketball IQ.  If he can find a way to develop into a solid big guy that can provide 10 minutes of consistent play, it would be a huge improvement.  McLimans was summed up earlier.  Colton has very little offensive ability, but plays hard when given the chance.  If Eso or Carlton can provide quality minutes, this team's depth drastically improves.  But I dont think it can. 

The starting 5 at Michigan are almost a perfect fit for what Beilein wants to do with his program, but he just doesnt have the depth to be a top 5-10 team.  They will be a scary out in the NCAA tourney for most teams, but they will also lose 1 or 2 games this year that should be wins.

I think Michigan will finish with a 9-9 conference record (possibly beating Wisconsin or Ohio once, but losing to NW or at Nebraska).  This record in the conference should guarantee a NCAA tourney berth.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Recruits turning to Ohio for higher education

The Whiner has already convinced two confused souls to drop their current commitment to a B1G school and turn and follow him to the land of sanctions, useless presidents, and awesome tattoo artists.

Penn State's best recruit Tommy Schutt, a highly touted defensive tackle is now committed to Ohio.  His committment to PSU was very soft since the abuse scandal has been made public. Ohio was the next logical choice for Schutt.  His dream school was Notre Dame, but his offer was taken away once they filled their needs on the defensive line.  It will be very interesting to see how he matches up for the next4 years against our very own Ondre Pipkens.  They both are huge high school seniors who are expected to come in and contribute in their freshman year. Which one will live up to their recruiting grade?  If both do, us fans will be lucky to see 2 great DT's for the next few years.

Next is a recruit I was expecting to switch alliances since The Urb was announced at Ohio.  Se'Von Pittman, the class of Sparty's recruits, who was turned down by Michigan earlier this year, announced yesterday that he was headed to Columbus as well.  This leaves Sparty scrambling to replace half of their 4 star recruits (they only had 2 before this), and also worried what their other 4 star will do.  Most expect him to switch schools to somewhere a little more big time (Ohio or SEC). What a difference a year makes.  When Sparty was actually competing with Michigan on the big time recruits in the state, to now when they can't even get multiple highly rated recruits.

These two recruits teamed up together on one DLine is a scary thought, even more so when it is for our hated rival.  An interesting question here though is, will these two committments help Ohio more than it will hurt the PSU/ MSU programs?  It will be fun to see this play out...

Sunday, December 11, 2011

MBB Oakland Recap: 7-2

Before we jump into looking back on the basketball game yesterday, I just want to say that yesterday was an amazing day for the B1G conference.  Undefeated IU knocking off Kentucky, MSU knocking off a ranking Gonzaga, Ohio going into KU without their best player and playing them tough all day, Wisconsin and Purdue still rolling, and of course Big Blue wins again.  The B1G should get 2 more teams into the top 25 after yesterday's events. 

Ok, know lets look back on the 90-80 victory yesterday.  Yes, you read that right, we scored 90 points.  But it might be more concerning in giving up 80 (48 in the second half) to an average Oakland team. 

I only was able to watch the 2nd half of the game, but listened to the 1st on the radio.  The shortcomings of this basketball team are becoming more and more defined with every game.  I was hoping they would get better with time, but it looks like these will be here for the season.  While Trey Burke is replacing Morris really well so far, but this team really lacks any depth at the point guard position.  The offensive efficiency halts when Burke is not on the floor, Stu is still not playing like a senior.  Even with his deficiencies is almost everything but shooting, I could handle it a lot better if he was even trying to run some sort of offense.  Most of the time when a standard 2 guard switches to point guard the biggest drop off is in ball handling.  With Stu it is decision-making.  He just is not able to play the point, so unless Carlton somehow improves 200% between now and the tourney this team will tire out quickly playing back-to-back games in the conference tourney or the real tourney.

The other large problem with the current team is the inability to defend the paint.  Smot cannot defend a weak 8th grader down low without fouling out or giving up easy lay-ups. Now though it seems like Morgan has been paying too much attention to Smot's guy to help out on the low post feed, that he loses his own. Smot did a good job yesterday in not getting into foul trouble, but gave up low post position time and time again.  So it is a trade off, we can keep Smot on the floor and hope he outscores the guy he is guarding or he can play tough down low and foul out in 15 minutes. Things dont get better when Horford comes on to the floor, he plays weak and just wants to block shots on defense. This area needs to improve before the physical B1G play.

Offensively Michigan shot the ball extremely well, and didnt seem to take many 3s that were forced or not open.  Our team is full of good shooters that if they can consistently get good looks, averaging 50% from 3 can be a realistic expectation. But it all depends on the opportunities that are produced.  Burke was able to get dribble penetration at will yesterday, which most likely will not continue in B1G.  Anytime you score 90 points, you are doing something right on offense. Let's hope it continues for the rest of the non-conference season.

RGIII wins the Heisman!

In one of the best Heisman races in recent years, Robert Griffin III won the 77th Heisman trophy.  All 5 finalists were deserving of the award in their own way, but RGIII was in my mind the best choice.  Finally the voters voted for the MVP of college football.  Bama would have still had a top ranked defense without Richardson, LSU would have still have 4 of the best defensive backs without Mathieu.  Stanford would have had their power running game, good offensive line, and best group of TE's, and Wisconsin would have had Russell Wilson and a very good running game even without Ball.  Baylor might not have made a bowl game without RGII.  Just think how much this one player has meant to the program.  Before he arrived, Baylor had never been ranked to finish a year and averaged 1 conference win a year.  His coach persuaded him to follow him to Baylor by saying he will be a Heisman candidate by the the time he leaves the school.  Pretty good prophecy from the head coach. 

I have to admit, I have watched Baylor quite a bit over the past three years but I never knew much about their star QB.  He is a well spoken kid with two military parents that seems to have his act together.  As always, the Heisman speech is the best part of the overdrawn event. 

This leads me to the worst part of the situation.  I would imagine very little people have really watched Baylor and RGIII play.  Most probably just saw his absurb stat line scrolling on the bottom line of ESPN. The worst part of the story is most people still will never see him play a game since the BCS skipped Baylor for the Sugar Bowl, they are left for a terrible no-name bowl that nobody will care about. Even when Tebow won when Florida had 3 losses, they still played in the Capitol One bowl which still gets prime ratings. As much as I, a Michigan fan, would like to win the Sugar Bowl and playing Baylor would make that significantly harder, I would rather see both track star quarterbacks against each other. RGIII a world class hurdler vs Denard one of the nations fastest sprinters. Think of the ratings and the marketing ability of that game... Heisman winner vs one of next year's top candidates. If neither qb had turnovers in the game a Michigan v Baylor game could be the first to 50 and would make the Sugar Bowl as attractive and exciting as any other bowl matchup this year.

So as magical as the Heisman trophy presentation always is, the fans are left with what could have been.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Finally Class D preview!

The player of the year in Class D will likely be Bucknell bound Chris Hass, he has led the state in scoring the past 2 years.  It is shaping up for him to do the same this year. He plays for Pellston, but again he is really their only threat of scoring.  So if a more athletic team can shut him down (<20 points) then Pellston will struggle.

The returning champion is again Wyoming Tri Unity, and they will likely run the table again through Class D.  There only losses might come from some Class A and B teams in the GR area.  If they are undefeated at the end of the season, look for Tri-Unity to win another state championship. The runners-up in Class D (Fulton) return their best 2 players and look to head back to the Bres for a second straight year, but they were overmatched in last year's final.

The exciting team to watchout for is Southfield Christian, they usually play with 4 or 5 guards on the floor and run a full court press for most of the night.  They have 5 potential all state guards on their team.  You might recognize two them: senior Lindsay Hunter III and sophomore Lindsay Hunter IV.  They are led by senior Chris Dewberry.  If they ever meet Tri-Unity, usual land of the trees (Chris Kaman's alma-mater) the game could get ugly fast.

Then from a personal stand point, one of my family friends is a high school senior for Martin High and is in contention for an all-state bid: Ben Schipper.  He will probably put up some huge numbers on a potential 0-20 team, not sure if he will get enough votes for all-state.

I dont think Tri-Unity will have much competition again this year.. unfortunately.

Class C preview!

As the schools get smaller, so does the list of college level recruits.  The reigning state champion: Schoolcraft will be one of the teams to beat next season as they have the preseason Class C player of the year: Senior Luke Ryskamp.  He is a walking double double.  He only started the season with a 27 point, 18 rebound effort in a win against a Class B team.  He will be a tough matchup all season, and Schoolcraft will likely have another undefeated regular season, but can they get back to the Bres?

Junior big time recruit Monte Morris resides in this class, as he plays for Flint Beecher.  At times last season it seemed like he was only one playing for Beecher.  He has single-handedly lead the Bucs to the semi-finals two years in a row. Is this the year they make the championship game?  I hope so, because I have only been able to watch him once.  Last year he averaged 18 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists as a 6'1" sophomore.

The best team in Class C will be Detroit Consortium again, they play a loaded schedule of Class A and B teams.  They will likely have 4-6 losses, but be almost a lock for the semi-finals.  Last year they were knocked off by Schoolcraft, and they will be looking for revenge this year.

Last year's runner up team: McBain will be looking to get back to the Bres for a second year in a row.  They will likely be undefeated as they dont play the type of schedule Beecher or Consortium will play, but they play great as a team and when they get the 3 ball working, they are tough to beat.

I think the Class C semifinal should be a matchup of Beecher, Consortium, Schoolcraft and McBain.  Depending on who plays who in the semis, Schoolcraft vs Consortium in the final, with Detroit getting revenge this year.

Class B preview!

So this shouldnt take too long.  Lansing Sexton is the best team in the state, hands down.  They are led by 3-4 potential first or second team All-Staters.  The best of which is headed to MSU next year, the coaches son: Denzel Washington.  He is a 6'5" strong point guard that will likely play wing or the two in MSU's system.  His pojected college ability is a little tough to determine because he is pretty slow footed, and not extremely quick, but he is too small to play the power forward position.  He has a very high basketball IQ, and does a good job in running his high school offense.  He will most likely be the player of the year in Class B. 

Michigan recruit Derick Walton is also in Class B, but his surrounding teammates do very little to help him out.  It will still be interesting to see how this point guard will lead his team throughout the year.  He is a decent scorer, but needs to work on his outside shooting some.  He will have to be a force on the offensive side of the ball this year if his team has a chance at making the Bres. 

Muskegon Heights will be good again, and a very tough out come tourney time.  They will travel more than any other team in the state just to get all 20 games.  They will likely have 6-8 losses by the end of the year because most of their schedule consists of good Class A and B schools.

The best junior in this class will be competing with Troy's Young for the early choice for the 2013 Mr. Basketball.  Both are top 50 recruits.  Byron Zeigler is a 6'6" wing player as well, so when these two play later this year, it should be a great matchup on both ends of the floor. They meet January 14th at Harper Woods Chandler Park... I dont know where that is.. but happy early birthday to me. :) Another exciting game, which I will be able to go to is on December 30th at Kzoo Central... Central vs Sexton.  I imagine Central will get beat pretty easily, but I just love the way Central plays for their coach and even if they lose they will play extremely tough.

This year's championship game most likely will be a rematch of last season Heights v Sexton with a 20 point Sexton win.. because folks they are that good (45th ranked team in the nation).

Michigan High School Basketball!!! Class A preview

If you know me well, you will know that my dad is a basketball coach and this means I am a huge fan of high school basketball.  Every year at the end of March I go to Sparty-land to watch the high school state finals, and I also follow the sport from the beginning of the season.  I know where most of the state's recruits end up and in most college games I will randomly say "I watched that kid play in high school."  It kind of scares Chels a bit.

The first game of the season for high school hoops was last night, so I thought I would give a preview of the year to come and to get some people excited early so they will join me at the Bres in March. 

Class A: Kalamazoo Central is the defending back-to-back Class A champions, and 3 years ago they were runners up.  Not a bad start for their 4th year under 30 coach (1 loss in 3 postseasons).  Central dodged a bullet this year when the Saginaw head coaching job opened up (Thomas' alma-mater) many thought he was next in line.  But he decided to stay put to continue his dynasty in the Zoo.  The thing that makes his teams so good is they play so well together, and play some of the best pressure defense that I have EVER seen from a high school team.  It helps that they have sent 3 players to D1 over the past 3 years, but their team defense will keep them in a lot of games this year.  They play some of the most aggressive defense that high schoolers can.  They are confident in their ability to protect the hoop, even a little bit cocky.  They also are not scared to play anyone, anywhere.  So look for them to be battle tested by the end of the year.  They will have stiff competition in their own league this year since Loy Norrix (their hated rival) is also a top 10 team.  This team is led by Oakland recruit Bishop Robinson (36 points 10 rebounds last night), who will most likely be a first team all-stater. These two teams will beat up on each other twice this year (both games played at Western so police can monitor better), and they will have to beat each other to win the district. Look for Central to keep it going in the tournament even if Norrix beats them in the regular season.  Romulus is the Class A preseason number 1 team for the second year in a row.  They are led by the young out of place coach that has no control over this team. So yes, while they are very talented again in their back court, I don't see Romulus going very far in the tournament until they can prove they can win big games.

The best recruit in the state happens to come from Class A this year.  He is the future Spartan Matt Costello, he is in the driver seat for Mr. Basketball and is Bay City Western's only real talent.  He is pretty slow, and will potentially get shut down by a more athletic physical team like a Kalamazoo Central or Saginaw Arthur Hill. Western made their first trip to the Bres last year (they actually won districts for the first time), I have a feeling they will be back again this year.

Arthur Hill has a big time recruit in Jordan Hare who decided to spend the summer working on his own and not in AAU ball, which means his recruiting hyp basically disappeared.  But this kid can play.  The problem is he is very lazy, and only seems to play his best against the best competition.  So look for Arthur Hill to drop a few games this year that they shouldnt, but also to knock off a top rated team at some point.

The best conference in the state is curently not the PSL (Detroit Public School League), but involves mid-Michigan teams like Okemos, Lansing Eastern, Sexton, Jackson, Holt, etc. Sexton is the Class B reigning champ, so we will talk about them later.  But the other teams are all in class A.  Eastern is led by 5'6" "There is no shot I dont like" Cha Cha Tucker... yup he goes by Cha Cha.  While his frame is too small for D1 basketball his ability is not.  He can score in bunches from all over the court.  He hit 5 game winners last year from 3, half court and 3/4 court, and he wasnt even the best player on his team.  It will be interesting to see how he does this year as the teams primary offense.  Okemos is led by Chris Harison-Docks, he is a do everything player.  He usually will not have a huge statline, but will be assigned to cover the best player on the opposing team and will still put up close to triple double numbers each game.  He is planning on going to Oakland as well.

The best player in all of Class A might be Troy's junior James Young.  I am not sure where this dude came from, but is rated in the top 10 overall for the 2013 class by some sites. He is a 6'6" wing player, but he does a lot more than shoot.  He is pretty strong and gets into the lane more than settle for the jumper.  He also will lead his team in rebounds.  The problem is that his surrounding cast is not very good, so Young will be double teamed most of the year and will probably transfer to a different school before his senior season. 

I think the traditional powers will be playing in the final 8 of the season, but there is no true power in Class A this year.  It should be exciting!

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Michigan vs Virginia Tech in the 2012 Sugar Bowl

The BCS voters got a few things right, but certainly not everything.  Why can't we just get a playoff to decide this crap on the field.

The BCS standings were released before the bowl selections like usual, and some of the final rankings are very questionable. First off, one of the positions that didnt matter much, but how does a team move up 4 spots by beating a 6-7 UCLA team at home by less than the spread?  While I think Oregon is very talented, their conference championship victory did very little to impress me enough to move up more than 1 or 2 spots. It also is a shame that Oklahoma St had to lose the one game to Iowa St earlier this year.  I do actually think Alabama is the 2nd best team in the nation, but they also had their chance to beat the #1 team at home and didnt do it. I would really love to see Ok St's 4 receiver spread against the best secondary in college football that I ever remember seeing.  All 5 defensive backs should be drafted in the first 3 rounds, and will likely be starters in their rookie season. WOW!

Let's move on.... How does a team that plays 1 ranked team twice in a season, and gets dominated by that one team in both chances only falls to number 11?!?  Wait, what?  Virginia Tech played 1 ranked team this year, Clemson.  And they didnt even compete in either of those games.  How does this warrant a top 12 finish? I think Georgia, Michigan, Baylor, MSU, Oklahoma (just off the top of my head) are all better than Va Tech, and all of these teams finished below the Hokies.  So, I think we have a good chance at beating Va Tech in the bowl game, and it is a better matchup than Houston, TCU, or Boise St. But there are so many other more deserving teams out there. 

I dont like MSU, not at all, but how do you play a team basically even with you in the standings, on a neutral field, and lose on a late special teams penalty after beating them once already in the season and fall 4 spots to number 17?  There is no way that MSU should be that low.  Absolutely no way. 

I am glad that the rankings did not put TCU into the top 16 for the automatic bid, so I would rather watch us play the Hokies. 

I think the standard SEC-B1G matchups should be pretty evenly matched (no MSU v Bama this year).  Nebraska should be able to hang with SCar, they can run the ball and stop run decently well.  Could be a low scoring game. MSU vs Georgia should be a really exciting game.  I think State can hang with them, and if Dantonio doesnt decide to make one of his bone head decisions I think they might actually win the game. 

But, I will try to limit my complaints, since we are 10-2 and in a BCS bowl for the first time in 5 years!  Go Blue!

Saturday, December 3, 2011

College Football Saturday so far...

There have already been 3 conference champions crowned this weekend (MAC, Pac-12, and C-USA), and there has been one major upset.

Houston got destroyed by Southern Miss today 49-28.  Everybody knew that Houston had a powerful offense, but there were lots of questions about the defense.  Those questions were answered today.  Houston's defense is not good.  It is a good thing this was discovered today instead of in the BCS game against us, so now if Michigan can get into the top 14 we will get to play a real team.  Yes, that might mean we have a tougher game or might actually lose.  But playing a real team will be better for this program and the B1G in the long run. Houston will now not get the auto bid for a BCS bowl since they did not win their conference. It is up to TCU to get into the top 14 to be eligible for the auto bid.  It looks very unlikely that this happens, and Michigan will be paired with Kansas St (if they win against ISU) or Baylor (if they beat Texas).  Both games are currently tied.  If these teams find a way to lose, the rest of the weekend will be very interesting.

Oregon held serve on their home turf by outscoring a terrible UCLA team last night, and Northern Illinois came back from 20 down to beat Ohio (not that Ohio).  Nothing real interesting with that.

Currently Georgia is taking it to LSU 10-0, but in reality it should be 21-0.  Georgia has dropped 4 passes so far (2 would have been for touchdowns) and 2 interceptions.  They were held to a field goal on the first drive after the 2nd dropped pass (1st in the endzone), then after the 2nd touchdown drop, Georgia missed the field goal.  Georgia just scored with less than a minute left in the 1st quarter (only the 2nd touchdown allowed in the first quarter for LSU).  Michigan better hope Kansas St can find a way to lose their new 7 point lead, or we could be on the outside looking in when the BCS standings come out tomorrow night. Everyone keeps saying that if LSU loses they will still go to the NC game, I do believe they are one of the 2 best teams in the nation.  But what happens if they get blown out tonight?  Will Alabama be rewarded with number 1 after sitting at home and watching?  Will Ok St jump LSU?  What happens if the Pokes lose to Oklahoma tonight? So many scenarios, one thing is for sure it will definitely be exciting!

Michigan MBB now 6-2

Well, Michigan came out and played a lot better in the second half before trying to lose the game in the last minute.

They had no answer for Iowa State center Royce White who finished with a double double 20+ points and 13 rebounds.  We had nobody athletic enough to cover him.  Then when we double teamed him, he would consistently find the open man for a jump shot.  He also finished with 4 steals and 5 assists.  Not a bad game for him.  If his teammates helped him out more, he would have had closer to 10 assists.

Michigan knocked down more of its open shots in the second half.  Hardaway got his standard 20 points, and looked uncoverable at times.  Michigan is falling into a little bit of a rut though where Burke will score about 10 points in the first half, then only finish with 11-13 for the game.  While Hardaway will have 5-6 at half time then finish with 20.  It would be nice if they could just be consistent for an entire game.

Morgan looked very good at times today, and he has expanded his shooting range to about 15 feet which should help out our offense quite a bit this year. I thought Michigan rebounded very well today too.  There were multiple times that Vogrich, Novak, and Smot battled inside against bigger players to come away with the ball.  This will need to happen every game for this team to finish in the top 4-5 of the B1G.

Michigan's zone offense has looked really bad this year, and it continued again today.  I didnt see us attack the zone one time today, settling to just pass the ball around the three point line.  Future opponents should see this in scouting, and use a zone more often.  It takes Morgan completely out of our offense and makes us just settle for long 3s.  Michigan will need to continue to work on getting the ball into the middle of the floor (at the free throw line) to break down a zone.  The player that cut to this spot did not move quickly or with any aggression, and the wing player with the ball wouldnt even look at him. Once you get the ball there, the player can turn towards the basket and suddenly he has many options... shoot a tough free throw jumper, pass down to the blocks and hope that our big has good enough hands to catch the sharp pass, another option would be to pass the ball to either corner as both wings would slide down the 3 point line.  The defense will likely collapse onto the free throw line, and with a quick 2nd pass there will be multiple open options. This never happened today.

It was a good win to get back at home and settle back into the easiest part of our non-conference schedule, but there are definitely things to improve on if we are going to not be on the bubble come March.

Halftime update from Crisler

Since I didnt do a preview post about the Iowa St game, I figured I would give a quick update on the first half.  I will give a full break down after the game.

UGLY! That is the only word I can use to describe what I just witnessed.

The lack of quality depth for this Michigan team is becoming more and more evident.  Before the season began, I expected Stu to hold his own with the point guard spot and Burke to gradually take over the role. Well, Burke has been the guy from the beginning with Stu as the back up.  But Stu has actually been pretty terrible for most of this year.  He is not a point guard, and when he plays his mentality seems to not be to run the offense, but to play shooting guard.  A point guard would demand the ball to start any sort of offense and to control the tempo. Stu seems to just want to stand 6 feet behind the 3 point line and wait for someone to pass him the ball so he can shoot it, and miss the shot short.  He is a good shooter if his feet are set and he is right at the line.  I cant handle watching him play basketball right now.  I wish Brundidge was ready, or Eso was more athletic on defense because Stu's minutes would be spent on the bench enjoying the view.

Burke right now is our most consistent and pure shooter. He does not force many shots, especially 3s and knocks down a high percentage of his shots.  He is a huge momentum booster when he is on the floor. What a great freshman season so far.

Hardaway seems to be playing with more energy today after sitting on the bench for most of the Virginia game. He has taken a lot of open shots, but they are not falling right now.  We should have a 15 point lead right now with all of the quality shots Hardaway has had.

Going back to the lack of quality depth, or big men are just plain bad.  After Morgan, and sometimes Smot, there is nobody left to play minutes down low.  I watched McLimans and Horford each miss at least one easy pass for a lay up which caused 2 of our 3 turnovers. Then once they do catch it, most of our bigs do not finish strong like they should.  I cannot wait for McGary next year just to increase depth down low. Iowa St is by far more athletic in their front court, and if their guards could make any of their wide open 3s, we would probably be losing.  Our bigs need to get a lot stronger and play with more aggression.

Missed shots have been an epidemic in the first half so far.  I didnt think college basketball players could miss so many open looks.  Maybe this means the 2nd half both teams will shoot 70% and score 60 each. This cant continue another 20 minutes can it?

We will see...

Friday, December 2, 2011

First B1G Championship Game Preview

It has taken me a while to figure out what to blog about next because there is not too much new stuff with Michigan footbll, previewing the bball game against Iowa St does not sound too appealing right now, and my last post was my favorite so far.

One side note before jumping into Sparty vs Bucky... a co-worker told me one of his MSU friends has said that recruiting doesnt matter, but if it did MSU has been dominating the state of Ohio.  I hope they meant compared to Michigan the past few years, because if they are just making the general statement with Ohio included, they should never be allowed to comment about sports again.  the Ohio has not allowed a 5 star recruit to leave the state in quite a few years, with Michigan finally taking Kalis (and hopefully Dunn) this year.  Ohio does recruit nationally, but the main reason they have so much more talent than Michigan is because Tressell would take every worthwhile football recruit from the state... leaving us with leftovers and mostly underwhelming players from Michigan, and the mountain goats from Pahokee.

On to more important things... the game tomorrow night should be an exciting one.  I am looking forward to the rematch, mostly because I had to put my foot in my mouth after last game when I predicted Wisconsin to beat State similarly to what they did to Nebraska.  It was going well for the first quarter, then Bielema pulled his standard coaching method and State made some huge plays and won the game.

It is hard for me to pick this game because both teams are going to  be fired up with the Rose Bowl on the line, and I think Wisconsin is a more talented team but that doesnt always transition to a victory in a one game setting. Lets take a look at the matchups.

Wisconsin Run Offense vs Sparty run D:  I have a feeling Bielema wants Ball to have a chance to get to Barry's TD record, so he will not be opposed to running up the score if possible.  But will State allow it to happen?  Gholston will be back for MSU, since he was in prison... I mean suspended... for their first meeting after he thought it was a good idea to punch a guy and try to make Denard an owl.  Worthy had a big game in the first meeting, and with Gholston on the line tomorrow with him it makes State even tougher to block especially if they dial up some LB blitzes. I would imagine they would be able to get free on some.  I look for Wisconsins huge OLine to eventually wear down the Sparty defensive front and for Ball to have a big game (150 yards, 2 TDs).

Bucky Pass offense vs States pass defense:  If State is able to create a pass rush and make Wilson throw under pressure, State could have a great game.  Wilson hasnt had to do that much this year, and when he has he looked his worst (State and Ohio rushed him pretty well at times).  If he does have time though, the Spartan group of misfits will not be able to cover Wisconsin's talented receivers and tight ends.  I think Wilson gets knocked around more tomorrow night than he has all season, but still gets enough time to throw on most ocassions leading to some big passing plays. I think he will have one turnover, with 2 TD passes.

State rush offense vs Badger defense: State is running the ball better lately, but still finsihed at the bottom of the B1G in rush offense this year.  I look for this to continue tomorrow night, and for Wisconsin's front 7 to keep State in check.  If State can run the ball, they can control the clock and keep Wisconsins good offense off of the field.  It will also help set up Cousins in the playaction game, where he is usually most dangerous.  I still think Wisconsin slows them down enough. 

State pass offense vs Wisconsin pass defense: Kirk Cousins had one of his best games against the Badgers when they met earlier this year.  I think that can continue tomorrow because Wisconsin's secondary is not that dominant.  They might come up with a turnover, but they will struggle to cover Cunningham and Martin in space. I think Cousins has another big game for him, and throws for 2 TDs. 

Special Teams:  Last game this is the area that State dominated.  The blocked punt and field goal were changing points in the game.  I don't think it will be do lopsided in this game, but State is more talented in this area.

Coaching:  Well tomorrow night will be the rematch of Big Game Bret and the arrogant slime bag... sorry I dont really like either of these guys if you cant tell.  I think Dantonio has been successful, but I would never want him leading my team.  I cant handle some of his comments about Michigan, especially immediately after beating us for a 4th straight time and him saying it will be a lot better after 5 in a row. Really dude?! You can't just enjoy beating us, you have to look to next years game.  I hope we beat them like a drum, and keep this moron out of the B1G championship game from here on out. Then we cross sidelines, where Big Game Bret will likely wither under the pressure and try to outcoach himself.  All of Wisconsin's losses the past two years follow the same pattern.  He gets in his own head, and goes away from what makes Wisconsin successful (pounding the ball and playaction passing).  Agaist TCU they outweighed their DLine on an average of 55 pounds, but they called more passing plays than they had all season.  Then finally at the end of the game when they needed points, their two minute offense consisted of handing the ball off to Monte Ball.  Where was that in the first 3 quarters?  Same thing in the 2 losses to State the past 2 years, and the loss to Ohio earlier this season.  He needs to keep doing what got them to this place and they will be tough to beat.

Prediction: Wisconsin 31 State 17