Trade Market

As the trade deadline approaches, it is almost guaranteed that Dombrowski will make a move to, in theory, improve the 2012 Detroit Tigers.  The problem this could bring is that it would likely come at the expense of our already depleted farm system.  People disagree about how to build a baseball franchise.  One theory is to go through a rough patch with the major league team, and in the mean time accumulate draft picks and prospects.  This is the method used by the more frugal spending teams (Kansas City).  The problem that many teams have with this method is they are not able to keep their young talent when they demand an 8 figure paycheck, and the teams that can afford to spend that kind of money do not want to waste 2-5 rough years with their MLB team.  This brings me to the 2^nd theory, buy anyone you want in free agency and get carpel tunnel from writing all of those zeros. This is usually the fans dream scenario, until the team stops winning and then shit hits the fan (welcome to the Tigers 2008 and 2012 seasons).  There are issues with both methods, so the ideal situation lies somewhere in between.  The Rangers, Giants, Cardinals, and the Braves have done this very well over the past 5-10 years.  More teams are trying to replicate this method than the Yankees buffet style, all you can spend, roster.  The Tigers fall just beside the Yankees with their spending habits.  It keeps the fans happy in the off-season but creates a lot of frustration during the 162 schedule. 

So this season as Detroit tries to improve the 25 man roster with some mid-season moves, the farm system will likely be full of 27 year old journeymen.  Let’s start by looking at the possible trade assets Dombrowski currently has to throw at other GMs.  The golden egg is Nick Castellanos.  He is shooting up through the minors right now and quite the hitter.  Every GM in the league will ask if he is available, and the question will be what is his price.  Next the Tigers have a stable of pitchers they can add to a marquee deal: Jacob Turner, Andrew Oliver, Casey Crosby, Drew Smyly, and even Rick Porcello.  Then they have a list of mediocre borderline major league type guys: Ryan Raburn, Delmon Young, Brennan Boesch, Jhonny Peralta, Don Kelly, Andy Dirks, and Danny Worth. 

Now the next step is for the team officials to decide what is the weakest link of the baseball team.  Overall, the 2^nd base position has been a black hole.  That is likely the top priority.  An average corner outfielder with a decent OBP would be welcomed to slide into the 5 hole (and this would be my first choice).  Then the Tigers could also solidify the starting pitching staff with, ideally, a left-handed pitcher. 

Here is the fun part, what is available?  For 2^nd basemen there are levels of talent, super-star, franchise-type players at this position are all locked up for the next 5 years and are not on the market.  That takes us to a young unknown Jose Altuve from the Astros, Jed Lowrie also from the Astros, Darwin Barney from the Cubbies, or Marco Scutaro from the Rockies.  Altuve likely has the highest trade value, but has the highest ceiling.  He has speed and would be a great 2 hitter behind AJ.  He could even be the lead-off guy, but Leyland likes AJ there (and why move someone who is so hot).  Lowrie would add an average bat to the lineup, but the intriguing thing with him is he would dramatically improve the defense at short stop, and we could move Peralta to 2^nd base.  Lowrie could potentially hit in the 2 hole, but likely would be a bottom half guy.  Barney’s trade value is also high right now.  He would be an improvement defensively, and he is a low power .270-.280 average guy.  He would be a good fit in the 2 hole, or down in the order as well.  Depending on what the Cubs and Astros ask for, one of these guys could help improve the infield defense for our many ground ball pitchers. It would be great to move Peralta away from the shortstop position, but then he might get that pouty attitude he had in his last season with the Indians if he doesn’t like playing there and he becomes utterly useless.  It would be great to improve the infield defense, but I would not be willing to give up a lot of players for any of these 2^nd basemen, especially when Raburn will likely hit at least .250 in the 2^nd half with some power. 

I personally think the Tigers are in desperate need of a 5 hitter that can get on base around a .330-.350 clip.  It would reduce a lot of pressure on Miguel and Prince and add it to the opposing pitchers and managers.  I think this can be addressed with a corner outfielder, and when VMart comes back from injury they can slide down to the 6^th hitter easily enough.  The marquee name in this area is Justin Upton.  His career OBP is .357 and he hits for power.  The problem here is that Castellanos will likely have to be involved in this trade for it to even be considered along with 2-3 more players.  Losing our prized prospect will plummet Detroit’s farm system to the bottom of the big leagues and give them little to no trade assets moving forward.  On the other hand, Castellanos is still an unknown.  Most people believe he is going to be in the MLB sooner rather than later, but his stock has never been higher than it is now after he won the MVP of the futures  game.  The other outfield options are: Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Quentin, Shane Victorino, and Jeff Franceur.  Upton is by far the best player in this bunch, on top of that, Upton is not 25 yet.  If he wants to play in Detroit, is it worth selling the farm for? I would be willing to give up Castellanos, Young, Worth/Raburn, and Crosby/Oliver for Upton, but is that offer even going to make the Arizona GM think twice?  Soriano is past his prime, can barely field his position and brings a huge contract with him.  Shane Victorino isn’t really what Detroit is looking for in terms of an offensive threat, and Franceur isn’t much of an upgrade at the plate from Boesch.  That leaves Quentin.  I would be interested in making this move if the price was right.  I would only give up 2 players at the most (one of the young pitchers and a Raburn/Worth type). 

Starting pitching has a few names on the trading block, but the asking price seems too high for the returned value.  The Phillies are shopping Cole Hamels.  Dempster and Garza from the Cubs are available, and Greinke from the Brewers are the well known names.  The A’s are usually looking to dump a pitcher or two, and the Astros have Wandy Rodriguez.  Most of these pitchers would improve Detroits starting 5, but the problem is that none of these guys will come at anything resembling a value.  The Phillies are looking for 3-5 prospects for Hamels, a 2 month rent-a-player.  The Cubs want to dump Soriano’s contract into a trade for one of their pitchers, and the Brewers want 1-2 prospects and an semi-impact player right now for Greinke.  Detroit should not trade Castellanos for any of these pitchers.  It seems likely that Detroit will roll with the 5 starters they currently have, and if they can make it into the playoffs they will move to a 4 man rotation with Smyly out of the pen. 

One thing that is for sure is that this month is going to be exciting to see which players are traded and who Detroit adds to the roster.  Dombrowski will do something, but depending on how untouchable Castellanos is will determine the overall added value.  I do not think the Tigers will find another Doug Fister or Delmon Young this year. 

First Half Recap (44-42)

Hello again folks I am back again.  Sorry for the long absence, not that anyone really noticed, but I have been on vacation and needed a break from blogging about my frustrations with the Tigers.  Everyone says that the baseball season is a marathon, and I am beginning to realize how correct that statement is while trying to blog about every game and/or series.  It is easy to project a single game’s failures over the course of a season and get frustrated with this high payroll team “under achieving.”  Seriously, why can’t they just win every game (or at least every series).  Well people, it is tough to win baseball games in the MLB, even with a high payroll.  Let’s take a look back at the first half and see if we can find any encouragement for the second half.

A few short months ago the Tigers were a favorite to make (and likely win) the World Series, so what has changed?  Well every role player seems to be having an average or slightly below average season.  Verlander, Cabrera and Prince are doing what they can to put the entire load on their shoulders, but they need help.  Delmon Young has been forced into the 5 hole and he just isn’t a 5^th hitter, he doesn’t get on base enough.  Delmon is putting little to no pressure on the pitcher if Prince gets on base.  Young has become everyone’s least favorite Tiger, and while some of that has to do with his stupidity off the field, the rest is a little unfair to him.  A big lipped square peg cannot fit into the round 5 hole.  Did you know that Delmon is having an average season for him?  His split is .271/ .298/ .418.  The average is just below his career average and the slugging is right at average.  Yes, his OBP is 20 points lower than average, and that has been the main issue.  But his is on pace to have close to 20 home runs, he averages less than 14. knew Delmon cannot field a position, so with VMart being sidelined it has given him a spot in the lineup.  The encouraging thing here is that we don’t have to see Young in the outfield.  There is no way that Delmon Young is not squarely on the trading block this month as part of a package deal to get another bat in the lineup.  The Tigers have made their DH decision for the next 3 years with VMart, so might as well try to get something for the soon-to-be free agent. 

The Tigers are getting no production out of the 2^nd basemen by committee.  Yes, Raburn is hitting over .300 since coming back from Toledo, but his batting average is still under .200 for the season.  This position is the weakest on paper, but every team has holes.  We knew the 2^nd base position was our weak link going into the season.  Most people want the Tigers to trade for a franchise 2^nd bagger, but that just isn’t a realistic possibility at this point (more on the trade possibilities in the next post).

Avila, Peralta, and Boesch are struggling offensively.  The home runs are down for all 3, and the averages for Avila and Boesch are much lower than anyone expected.  On top of this, 2 of the 3 (Peralta and Boesch) have been terrible in the field. I will give Alex a little pass here, he has been injured for most of the first half and continues to get abused behind the plate, but in the last few series before the All-Star break he seemed to be driving the ball again. 

Defensively this team is beyond awful.  Some of the games looks worse than the LLWS.  Coming into the season we expected the defense to be a weakness, but the offense would score enough to cover up the lack of consistency in the field.  On top of that, everyone was most worried about Miggy moving back across the diamond to play 3^rd.  Do you realize he has been the best starting infielder for the first half.  My hat is off to Cabrera for how hard he worked in the off season.  Austin, Avila, and Miguel have been good defensively (with Austin being the best CF in baseball in my mind).  The rest of the 5 starting position players are below average fielders with Fielder and Boesch having career worst years.  On top of that, the middle infielders really struggle with turning double plays consistently.  As fans, we cannot expect the defense to get any better over the 2^nd half of the season, so we could very well be looking at close to 100 unearned runs in 162 games… I am starting to feel sick.

There have been some very encouraging things about the first 86 games though.  Austin, Cabrera and Prince are knocking the cover off the ball.  Miguel was just the 7^th player in Detroit Tigers history to have more than 15 home runs, 60 rbis and 100 hits before the ASG and he is easily clear of that mark: 18/71/108.  He is having one of the best offensive seasons of any Tiger ever, and should be in the middle of the MVP discussion at this point in the season. I mean, how many players that finish with 35 HRs, 138 RBIs and 210 hits with a .320 average do not win the MVP?  I would guess not many.  Currently Austin is second in the AL in OBP and BA, and if he continues to get on base Miguel will continue to drive him home.  Most people were frustrated with Prince’s lack of power in the first half, but he has started to pick things up over the last week.  I would be surprised if he does not finish with 30+ hrs and 110+ RBIs.  I am not sure if you can ask more from just 3 guys. 

The starting pitching and bullpen have been very good overall.  Yes, Doug Fister is not 12-2 with a 1.75 ERA like most people expected and JV doesn’t have 20 wins yet, but quietly Max and Rick have put together a solid month of June.  Verlander is still in the top 3 of most pitching categories, and if he can get some consistent run support he will have a big second half.  Drew Smyly has been better than anyone expected (and if you expected more you are a moron). Fister still looks a little bothered by his oblique injury, but hopefully the All-Star break was a good rest period.  There is no reason to believe he will be as bad as he has been in the first half.  The Tigers are on pace to crush the AL strikeout record for an entire team.  Verlander, Max, and Smyly have been striking out a lot of batters, but the bullpen has been off the charts so far.  Besides Below, the rest of the bullpen comes in and strikes people out.  The dynamic thing about them though is they get people to swing and miss in different ways.  Villareal uses pin point location with a 98 mph heater to set up a nasty drop off the table slider.  Benoit uses his best changeup in baseball.  Coke uses effective wildness and knee-locking breaking balls.  Valverde… well lets move on. 

There is still a lot of things to be excited about this year’s Detroit Tigers team (that statement is as much for me as anyone).  They have made it through some injuries and a stretch of playing some of the worst baseball anyone will ever see from an MLB team, and somehow they are 44-42 (one game behind last year’s dream season).  Go Tigers.