B1G Week 5 Preview

Luckily week 5 is a pretty light lineup for the B1G as I will be in Japan for work.  I will try to keep the blog updated while overseas, but it might be a light week.  I will try to at least make a Minnesota preview.

Miami (OH) @ Illinois 12:00pm
Miami is not a very good MAC team this year, and Illinois looks to be improved from last season.  I think Nathan Scheelhasse will have another big game through the air as new OC Bill Cubit is very familiar with the Red Hawks.  Look for Illinois to try different things on defense to try to force more big plays (sacks and turnovers).  

Northern Illinois @ Purdue 12:00pm
The Huskies already beat Iowa this season, and are looking for their 2nd B1G win.  I have said multiple times that Purdue is the worst team in the conference, so if NIU could beat Iowa I wiill be expecting them to do something similar to the Boilermakers.

Iowa @ Minnesota 3:30pm
This game is really intriguing and should give better clarity to the bowl teams in the conference. Even though the Hawkeyes are not performing up to their standards, fans still expect a bowl berth.  Minnesota, on the other hand, is trending in the opposite direction, and the Gophers have the talent to be in the postseason.  Both teams will need this win if they plan on getting to 6 wins.  The Hageman - Weisman matchup should be one of the better storylines around the conference this week.  I think the Minnesota rushing attack should be able to ground out another 250+ yard game.  It will be interesting to see if Iowa can force the Gophers into passing situations (3rd and longs).  If not Minnesota should win relatively easily.

Wisconsin @ Ohio State 8:00pm
This matchup has produced some of the most memorable B1G games in the past decade, and this year should be no different.  It will be the Buckeye's first real test of the season.  I am still unsure about how good the OSU defense is, and right now I guess they are on a similar level as Arizona State.  Wisconsin was able to shred that defense for 300+ yards on the ground.  The key matchup in this one will be the Buckeye front 7 in first and second downs. The Badger weakness is in the passing game, and if Stave is faced with 3rd and longs Ohio State will win this game comfortably.  At this point it seems reasonable to expect Stave to pass for about 150 yards, but the Badgers will likely need at least 400 to win this game.  I expect Melvin Gordon and James White to have another big game.  On the OSU offensive side of the ball it will be interesting to see if Braxton Miller is able to shake off the rust and if Meyer has his Heisman hopeful on a leash.  Wisconsin really struggled to contain the Sun Devil passing attack, and the Buckeyes have a lot more weapons.  Some combination of Miller and Guiton should be able to break at least one big passing play. The new Badger 3-4 defense should be able to dial up different blitzes to confuse the inexperienced OSU offensive line, but will they be able to contain either running quarterback?  Night games in the 'Shoe are always intimidating, and I think Stave will make too many mistakes in the passing game to give Wisconsin a chance late.  Ohio State should escape with a close high scoring win.

Week 5 Upset Alert

We made it through the worst week of college football, and it is now time for conference play.  The Upset Alert post should have more options from here on out. Last week I was right that no top 25 teams would lose, but I was wrong with the games to keep an eye on.  Lets jump ahead to week 5.

LSU @ Georgia
I know the Tigers offense is looking like one of the best in the SEC.  Michigan Man Cam Cameron is doing a great job so far in Baton Rouge, but Georgia has one of the best offenses in the country. I expect this game to be every bit as entertaining as the Texas A&M and Alabama game.  Both teams are breaking in a lot of new starters on defense, so points will not be hard to come by in this heavyweight bout. I think both Mettenberger and Murray will have big games, but Todd Gurley will be the x-factor in this game.  Georgia at home should be able to get a lead, and since the Dawgs can run the ball more effectively they should be able to keep the LSU offense off the field.

Oklahoma @ Notre Dame
My thoughts about the Irish have changed dramatically since the 2nd weekend of the season, but I don't think Oklahoma is a very good team.  Notre Dame will give Blake Bell a lot of different defensive fronts to think about, and they should be able to get in the backfield quite a bit Saturday afternoon.  The game plan should be more similar to the Michigan game, and Tommy Rees should be more comfortable in the short passing attack.  I think he bounces back with a big game. Also, remember that weird things happen in South Bend.

Arizona @ Washington
As much as I don't want to do this, but Rich Rod has another pretty good team in Tucson. They are led by one of the best running backs in the country Ka'Deem Carey.  Washington hasn't seen a rushing attack like this yet, and I doubt they will be able to stop it let alone slow it down.  Keith Price is prone to giving the ball to the other team at least twice each game, and the running spread attack should be able to control the clock more than the Huskies. This should be a good matchup to see if the Wildcats are contenders in the Pac12 South.

B1G Week 4 Recap

The B1G bounced back reasonably well after the week 3 debacle.  Most of the conference teams performed at or above expectations in the final tune up weekend to the B1G season.

Good surprise:
I am going to go with the entire Minnesota Gopher team.  They welcomed an SJSU team fresh off an 11 win season last year.  The Spartans also played Stanford reasonably tough in the season opener. I expected Minnesota to struggle to score over 21, and for SJSU to edge them out.  Minnesota instead rushed for 353 yards (sacks included) and the untested defense forced 3 turnovers and held the Spartans to 10 points.  The Gophers are looking like a sure fire bowl team this year, and are improving each year under Coach Kill.  Now they need to figure out their passing attack, because if Nelson or Leidner can be a threat through the air this team will be difficult to beat.  Michigan will have its hands full in week 6.

Purdue was coming off of a surprising game against Notre Dame and Wisconsin from a disappointing loss in the desert.  It seemed plausible that the Badgers would come out a little sluggish from the outcome against Arizona State. Instead, Wisconsin looked like a legitimate contender in the Leaders Division, while the Boilers cemented their fate as the worst conference team.  Wisconsin still has worrisome weaknesses that Ohio State will look to expose this weekend, but every team in the B1G looks flawed right now. The Badgers rushed for 388 yards at 8 ypc, and Purdue's strength is supposed to be their defense.  Wisconsin shredded the Boilers for 41 points while Notre Dame struggled to score 20. 

Iowa finally showed some signs of life against Western Michigan, and gave the Broncos their worst B1G loss of the season.  Yes, the Hawkeyes scored 28 points from special teams and defense, but they also rushed for 258 yards which was more than MSU could manage against WMU.  I still don't think Iowa is very good, but it was nice that they showed some ability last weekend.

Bad surprise:
I thought Indiana actually had a chance against Missouri last weekend, but the Hoosiers paper thin defense reared its ugly head again. The Tigers do have an above average offense, but surrendering 623 yards is just unacceptable. On top of that, Indiana threw 3 interceptions which didnt help matters. Before the season I penciled in the Hoosiers as a bowl team, but now they will need to find 4 wins in conference play which seems like a tall task for a team that resembles 2010 Michigan.

Michigan State Spartans fought hard against Notre Dame according to the box score, but they surely did not pass the look test.  The offensive game plan seemed incoherent and changed too easily, and the defensive secondary gave up 70 yards of penalties (Notre Dame only finished with 220 total yards), and if it was the NFL rules that number would likely be doubled. I know Coach Narduzzi likes playing tight man to man coverage all game, but he was too stubborn to change his game plan even after it became obvious Notre Dame was just trying to throw the ball downfield to get a lucky completion or a PI call.  Out of the Irish's 34 passes, at least 15 of them were 15 yards or more.  This is pretty remarkable considering that of the 51 passes attempted against Michigan less than 5 were thrown this far down field.

Week 3 conference rankings:
1. Ohio State (no change)
2.  Northwestern (no change)
3. Wisconsin (up 1)
4. Michigan (down 1)
5. Michigan State (no change)
6. Nebraska (up 1)
7. Penn State (down 1)
8. Minnesota (up 2)
9. Illinois (no change)
10. Indiana (down 2)
11. Iowa (no change)
12. Purdue (no change)

Week 4: Connecticut Recap

This recap is going to look eerily similar to the one posted a week ago in reference to the Akron game. Michigan followed up the 'Worst Win Ever' with another pretty terrible win, but at least it was a win and the Wolverines moved to 4-0 on the season.

Turnovers continue to be the achilles heel of this football team.  Devin Gardner struggles to protect the ball when scrambling, and seems to have lost all confidence in his passing ability. Michigan now has a -5 turnover differential on the season, and the most of the blame should be directed at the starting quarterback. Garner has accounted for 10 turnovers by himself. On Saturday night he had Gallon wide open for an easy first down, but didn't set his feet which resulted in a high throw that was tipped and then picked off. The second interception is more excusable, and probably should have ended as an incompletion if not for poor play from Chesson. Gardner stepped up in the pocket and released a ball 40 yards downfield.  The pass was intended for the redshirt freshman receiver, who had a step on the cornerback.  Instead of leading Chesson towards the endzone and throwing the ball to his outside shoulder, the pass was a few yards underthrown.  It looked like the cornerback came down with the ball with Chesson, but then outmuscled Jehu for the interception.  Gardner's final turnover was on a quarterback sneak. Yes, the offensive line got pushed back into him and Kerridge ran up his back, but Gardner was still carrying the ball too loose.  So far in 4 games the Michigan offense has given up 21 points, and that does not include 2 turnovers inside the 10 yard line.

On top of the turnover issues, the offensive line continues to get mauled by anyone lining up in front of them. Coach Hoke mentioned some potential changes to the inside 3 linemen before the UConn game, but ended up going with the usual suspects. I would guess that we will see at least one new face up front against Minnesota.  While it is unfortunate to have to switch lineman this far into the season, the Wolverines have to make a change. Michigan is giving up the TFL's in the conference, and are one of the worst teams in the nation.  The Huskies did not have a sack entering Saturday night, but came away with 3.  On top of that, the defense that got sliced by a bad FCS team recorded 10 TFL. Most of those coming from inside runs. The B1G might not be the best conference, but most teams left on the schedule will have a better defensive line than UConn.  It seems unlikely that Schofield will be changed to guard, but I think he makes a better guard than tackle.  Also, having a left side of Lewan and Schofield is pretty tempting.  It looks like the LG and C spots are up for grabs between Glasgow, Miller, and Bryant with Braden and Magnuson pushing for time at RT.  We didnt think the offensive line could be worse than last season, but so far they are testing that statement.

Another thing that I noticed was all of the mistakes from true freshman on special teams.  Ben Gedeon ran into the punter (luckily on a 4th and 7), Jourdan Lewis blocked in the back 20 yards behind the punt returner when Dileo put Michigan inside the 10, and Da'Mario Jones had a punt hit his foot on his very first play in a winged helmet.  These types of mistakes cost the Wolverines 11 points, and they cannot happen against better opponents.  Ever since Dymonte Thomas blocked the first punt of the year, true freshman seem to only be making big play mistakes on special teams.

The most encouraging aspect of Saturday night's game was how the defense performed. UConn by no means has a prolific offense, but anytime you can hold a divison one opponent at 200 yards for an entire game is pretty impressive. Michigan was able to get consistent pressure from the front four, and Frank Clark even recorded his first two sacks of the season.  Both came when he beat the terrible RT, but they were the first of his career that he had to beat a block for.  Jibreel Black was in the back field again, but Wormley and Henry both made appearances somewhat regularly. Coach Mattison even dialed up a few cornerback blitzes with Raymon Taylor, and each resulted in a sack or a rushed incomplete throw. The linebackers did a little better in coverage, but will need to continue to improve as Beyer and Bolden struggled in the seams at different points. However, the biggest play of the game came from this position group in coverage as Desmond Morgan was able to intercept a pass and return in inside the 20. The secondary still has its glaring issues, but with Avery back in the lineup it gives the coaching staff more options. Luckily Minnesota will not test the back end of the defense at all, which will basically give these guys 2 weeks to prepare for Hackenberg.

Top Performers
      1.   Bye Week

2.     Desmond Morgan

3.   Frank Clark
4.   Fitz Toussaint
5.   Blake Countess

Areas of Concern

1.   Devin’s tendency to give opposition points (this will stay on the top of the list)

2.  Interior line play

3.  Devin's lack of confidence in the pass game

4.  Big negative plays from the special teams

Michigan is one of 4 teams that remain undefeated in the B1G, but they have definitely taken the ugliest route there. The bye week cannot come at a better time as the Wolverines have many problems that need to be fixed before Minnesota if Team 134 will be heading to Indianapolis.

Week 4: Connecticut Preview

Well last week was brutal.  The Michigan Wolverines take the field tomorrow to try to erase the remaining disgusting taste that is in our collective mouths. I am not sure if one good game will be able to do that, but executing in every phase of the game for the first time this season could be great way to start. At this point I will take just comfortably scoring more points than an over matched opponent.

UConn Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
To put it nicely, the Huskies struggle to run the ball. Their main work horse, Lyle McCombs, is averaging around 3.5 yards per carry.  On top of that he is getting little to no help from the offensive line that averages just over 300 pounds. The one thing that will help UConn in this game is that their main offensive scheme is to run a passing spread. If this sounds similar to Akron, Notre Dame, or Central Michigan you would be correct.  Michigan has struggled against this style for the past 2 games, and might have against the Chips if their starting quarterback and running back werent injured in the first quarter. The Wolverines will likely elect to continue in their nickel package by removing the nose tackle to insert another cornerback, and so far this year the Jibreel Black at DT and gaggle of 3-techs have been blown off the ball time and again during running plays. If Michigan plays Quinton Washington or Ondre Pipkens more than 50% of the snaps, UConn likely will not scratch 3.5 ypc.  The problem is that so far Greg Mattison has been unwilling to change his nickel package, and at this point seems unlikely to make the switch now. Even with this, Michigan should still have the advantage here.  They have better athletes in the front 7 than UConn has seen so far this season, and they have to be able to stop the rushing attack.  Advantage Michigan.

UConn Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
Like I mentioned earlier, UConn prefers to run a passing spread offense out of the shotgun formation. This scheme prefers to use 3-5 receivers and utilize short passing routes in order to get the ball out of the quarterbacks hands quickly to keep him upright and to allow him to make easy decisions and throws. The problem is that the Huskies offensive line is so bad that they are surrendering 5 sacks per game, and they have only played a bad FCS team and low level ACC squad. Michigan hasn't been good at getting to the quarterback, but they have to be better than Towson and Maryland. Hopefully this game will get the Wolverine front four back on track and into the backfield consistently.  If not, Coach Mattison has to change the strategy as we move into B1G play.  Michigan seems to be on different wave lengths between the front and back 4. As they are trying to generate an organic pass rush, the opposing quarterbacks are using 3 step drops and very quick passes, and the Wolverine secondary has been playing an extremely soft zone to give make the throws even easier. If the coaches are set on not blitzing extra people, they need to play more press coverage.  If they are set on dropping back in max coverage, then the soft zone on the outside is more acceptable. Raymon Taylor had a brutal game last week, and got beat over the top multiple times. He needs to step up this week, or be replaced by Courtney Avery.  If UConn is going to have any success tomorrow night they will need to do it through the air, but it is hard not to believe that the Michigan defense comes out a little angry this week in an attempt to make a statement.  Advantage Push.

Michigan Rush Offense vs UConn Rush Defense
Depending on which analyst you have listened to this week the Michigan run game has been slowed because of bad line play or bad vision from Fitz. I happen to think it is a little bit of both. The Wolverine interior line continues to miss blocking assignments, which have given Fitz little room to run. On the other hand, Fitz doesn't seem to trust his lead blocker yet, and is determined to hit a homerun on each run.  This strategy has resulted in multiple negative rushing yards, when if the lead block was followed would have been 2-4 yard gains. Those 'short' but positive runs tend to add up a lot quicker than -2 yard runs. If Toussaint follows the pulling lineman or the fullback he should finally break 100 yards tomorrow night, but if he continues to prefer to run east and west then it could be another frustratingly long night. I happen to think the offensive line will take offense to Coach Hoke calling the position up for grabs, and respond with a dominant performance.  Hopefully Fitz responds as well and decides to get up field quicker than in the first 3 games. Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Pass Offense vs UConn Pass Defense
To continue the theme of this preview, the UConn pass defense is also really bad. The best Huskies defender is redshirt junior MIKE Yawin Smallwood.  He is a legitimate NFL prospect, and UConn's best pass rusher. Other than him the Huskies struggle to get to the quarterback, which should help Devin Gardner bounce back from a terrible game last week. The defensive line has struggled to generate any pass rush so far, and UConn still has not recorded a sack. Michigan should be able to spread the ball around between Gallon, Chesson, Dileo, Funchess, and Butt.  I would imagine the main game plan is to try to get the running game going, so Devin might have his passing attempts limited, but when he does drop back he should have plenty of time to pick apart UConn's defense. I think the tight ends have a big game, and I would like to see Chesson continue to get targetted because he should be open downfield all game.  Advantage Michigan.

UConn might be worse than Akron, but in case you forgot last weekend that does not mean Michigan can overlook a bad team, especially on the road. I hope last week was an eye opener for Team 134, and I expect them to have had a very focused, motivated, week of practice. I think the Wolverines bounce back and look more like the team we saw against Notre Dame than against Akron. Look for a big day from the pass rush and the running game, as Michigan gets a comfortable win against UConn 41-10.

B1G Week 4 Preview

Luckily week 3 is in the rear view mirror, because for the second straight season it was embarrassing. While I have done well in my weekly upset picks, the B1G selections have stumped me for most of the season. Let's hope I can get back on track in week 4.

San Jose State @ Minnesota 12:00
This game could be one of the more intriguing matchups this week.  The Spartans were an 11 win team a year ago, and pushed Stanford in the opener for a half.  Minnesota is looking to respond to Coach Kill's 4th seizure during a Gopher game, and they could be without starting quarterback Phillip Nelson.  If SJSU could score 14 points on one of the best defenses in the country, I think they will be able to top 20 and could push 30 against the Gophers.  Will Minnesota be able to score consistently enough? They will try to pound the ball on the ground as the backup quarterback gets comfortable.  Before starting this preview I was planning to go with Minnesota, but now I want to lean towards the Spartans to get the big road upset.  

Florida A&M @ Ohio State 12:00
And the Buckeyes are back to playing teams that would struggle to win high school state championships.  Urban could start at quarterback in this one, and OSU would still hang 40 points. The question here will be does Ohio State finish with more points than A&M yards.

Western Michigan @ Iowa 12:00
The Broncos are probably sick of playing the B1G as this will be their 3rd matchup in 4 weeks.  WMU hung with Northwestern for most of the opening half last week, but in the end Northwestern pulled away for an easy win.  Meanwhile, Iowa struggled to close the door on a bad Iowa State team.  As like most Hawkeye previews, this game is not going to be pretty.  Look for Mark Weisman to add another 25+ carries, and for him to eclipse the 150 yard mark.  Iowa should be able to win comfortably against a bad MAC team.

Maine @ Northwestern 3:30
I was close to going with this game as the marquee matchup of the week, I hope I went with the right choice. Seriously, Northwestern? You scheduled Maine? Do they even have a football team? The Wildcats should cruise in this snoozer.

South Dakota State @ Nebraska 3:30
Just another week in the life of the Blackskirt defense. The Husker will look hold SDSU to under 500 yards, but it might be a challenge for this defense. Just kidding, South Dakota State is miserable. Even though Taylor Martinez likely will not play, Nebraska should be able to roll with Ameer Abdullah and Imani Cross.  The real question here will be does Bo Pelini have more sideline/post game blow ups than SDSU points?  

Kent State @ Penn State 3:30
The Nittany Lions will look to bounce back against a decent Kent State team.  I would guess the Penn State defense wants to get back on the field quickly, and it will help that they don't have to defend Blake Bortles.  Hackenberg should have another big game completing passes to Alan Robinson, and the Nittany Lions should get away with a comfortable win.

Purdue @ Wisconsin 3:30
Hurray! It is the first conference game of the season.  Purdue performed much better against Notre Dame than I expected, and Wisconsin got robbed out in the desert against a good Arizona State team.  I still think the Boilermakers are the worst team in the conference, and I am holding out hope that the Badgers are going to be the team to challenge Ohio State in the Leaders Division.  Look for Melvin Gordon to have a huge day again, but I think Joel Stave continues to struggle under center.  I don't think Purdue is a good enough team to make Wisconsin pay for the poor quarterbacking, and the Badger run game should carry the team to a 1-0 B1G record.

Michigan State @ Notre Dame 3:30
This game has a lot of intrigue for me. After Michigan beat Notre Dame I really thought the Irish could still be a BCS team, but then they struggled against a bad Purdue team while Michigan should have lost to Akron.  So I am interested to see which team shows up this week. As for Michigan State, their offense looked incapable of getting out of its own way after the first two weeks, but then the Spartans bounced back with an impressive 55 point outburst against Youngstown State.  I do think the Notre Dame defense is very good, and I don't know if MSU will be able to exploit some of the weaknesses like Michigan or Purdue.  The Spartans do not have Devin Gardner, and they don't have a reliable pass catching running back to use for screen passes. I think Michigan State will go back to struggling mightily on offense. The good news for the Spartans is that Tommy Rees is lining up under center for the domers, and he is good for at least one bone head mistake every game. This will likely mean that the MSU defense gets back on the board in this game. The Notre Dame offense looked very good against Michigan 2 weeks ago, but then struggled against Purdue (which gave up 42 to Cincinnati). Pat Narduzzi is going to dial up a lot of blitz packages to try to pressure Rees into bad throws, and it will be interesting to see if the Irish OL can hold up.  I think the MSU defense is much better than Michigan's, and the ND offense only scored 23 in Ann Arbor.  This game will likely be closer than I expected 2 weeks ago, but Notre Dame, behind a more balanced attack, should be able to pull out a low scoring win.

Missouri @ Indiana 8:00
This is the 3rd and final intriguing game around the B1G this week.  Indiana lost a winable game against Navy, but then responded by pounding a good Bowling Green team last week.  The Hoosiers need to win this game if they are going to be bowl eligible, but the Tigers will provide a stiff test.  A win over an SEC team will be the best win for Coach Wilson during his time in Bloomington, and the season outlook could look a light brighter if they can pull out the victory.  Even though Missouri is an SEC team, they are a bad SEC team.  They likely will not win a single conference game this season.  However, they do boast a pretty potent offense behind James Franklin, which spells trouble for the Hoosiers. This game should be an entertaining touchdown-fest, and I am going to go with Indiana at home.  I think their defense made some strides last week that hopefully they can replicate again, and the Hoosier offense is going to shred a very weak Tiger defense.

Week 4 Upset Alert

The weekly upset alert is doing well for me so far this season, but I might run into some scheduling issues in week 4.  This is the weekend that most college football teams are gearing up for conference play, and will elect to play a cellar dweller in order to get a full contact practice to prepare.  I actually do not see any upsets happening this week, but I still want to note a few games to keep an eye on.

Louisiana Monroe @ Baylor
RGIII is no longer in Waco, but Coach Briles continues to turn out prolific offenses. Baylor should have the best offense in the Big 12, if not in all of FBS. They are led by Bryce Petty who is completing 80% of his passes so far, and Lache Seastrunk who is averaging nearly 10 yards per carry. ULM will not be able to stop the Bears, and their only hope will be to slow the machine down enough and trade scores. The Baylor defense is still a work in progress, although they have shown more promise this year in their first two games. ULM is a legitimate team, and if Baylor overlooks them this game could be pretty close.  Either way it will be a high scoring game.

Arizona State @ Stanford
The Cardinal is many expert's preseason pick to face Alabama in the national championship game. Arizona State is coming off of a huge win over Wisconsin, and look like one of the favorites in the Pac 12 South.  This could be a rematch of the conference championship game.  Stanford has started slowly in both of their opening games against less than intimidating opponents (San Jose State and Army).  This should be an entertaining matchup between Arizona State's high powered passing attack of Taylor Kelly, and Stanford's defense which should be in the top 10 nationally again. But the outcome of the game might be decided in the opposite matchup.  The Sun Devils struggled to contain Wisconsin's running attack, and Stanford will look to replicate the Badger's success.  This approach will also be effective in keeping the defense fresh while ASU's offense is off the field. I liked what I saw from Arizona State last weekend, so I think they can push Stanford.  In the end the Cardinal should be able to run the ball at will, which should allow them to control the outcome.

Auburn @ LSU
I was really impressed with the new look LSU offense in their season opener against TCU. Zack Mettenberger looks to be one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC, and will be the major reason if LSU is going to be headed to Atlanta for the SEC championship game. On the other side it is looking like Auburn is starting to gain confidence in their new head coach, Malzahn.  LSU is still trying to replace a lot of their defense from last year, and the spread guru could throw enough unique looks out there to give LSU some problems. I do think the Bayou Bengals are much more talented than Bama's little brother, and playing at home with a senior quarterback should be enough for LSU to win this game.

B1G Week 3 Recap

Well the B1G did it again.  Just when I thought this year was trending in a better direction, the conference goes out and lays a massive egg in week 3.  Now the only chance of redemption will be during bowl season, where most teams will be underdogs. At least we have basketball, right?

Good surprise:
The Michigan State offense came out of hiding on Saturday to dismember a pretty good FCS team (Youngstown State).  The Spartans went with Conner Cook to start the game, and in surprising fashion Coach Dantonio said he would get ample time to prove himself.  So instead of looking over his shoulder after each dropped pass, Cook had the confidence from his coaches to go out and succeed. Most people thought Cook was the fourth best quarterback option on the MSU roster, but at least after week 3 Sparty has a starter. We will see how week 4 goes against Notre Dame.

Indiana again finds themselves in the good surprise category.  After a disappointing loss to Navy, the Hoosiers bounced back against the MAC favorite (Bowling Green).  The offense hung 42 points on the Falcons, but the more surprising part is the defense pitched a shutout in the 2^nd half and only surrendered 10 points.  If Indiana can hold teams under 30 points they can be a dangerous team in the Leaders Division.

Purdue actually challenging Notre Dame.  I figured the Irish would come off of a disappointing loss in week 2 angry and take out their frustrations on a terrible Boilermaker team. Instead, Purdue pushed Notre Dame into the 4^th quarter until a series of bad breaks slammed the door shut on the improbable win.  I still think this is clearly the worst team in the conference.  However, the coaching staff definitely learned some weaknesses from ND’s first two games and they actually exploited them.  Also, it looks like Purdue’s defensive line might be the most disruptive in the B1G.

Bad surprise:
I am going to start again with the Nebraska defense.  A week after showing signs of dominance against lifeless Southern Miss, the Huskers went back to losing battles with the tackling dummy.  As good as the Nebraska offense can be the defense is equally as bad (or worse).  Brett Hundley was able to shred the Cornhusker defense to the tune of 350 total yards. On top of another terrible defensive performance, Nebraska didn’t score in the last 23 minutes of the game.  They came out of halftime and looked absolutely lifeless.  Coach Pelini’s days in Lincoln appear to be numbered, and the Huskers do not look even close to a B1G contender right now.

It looks like the scholarship limits are going to catch up to Penn State this year. The depth on the defensive side of the ball is clearly lacking. I figured they would struggle against teams like Wisconsin or Michigan, but the balanced attack from Central Florida was enough to keep the Nittany Lions defense on skates all game. Blake Bortles had a near flawless day and Storm Johnson went over the century mark on the ground.  While Hackenberg is going to put up big numbers for Penn State, their defense will be the limiting factor.

There has been a lot of discussion about the Wisconsin defense, and how they didn’t give up a single point in the first two weeks. The Badgers new 3-4 scheme struggled Saturday night in the desert. Arizona State gashed Wisconsin for 468 total yards; most of the damage came through the air as the Badgers are trying to break in an inexperienced secondary. It looks like the ground and pound offense is still thriving with the new coach, but the defensive switch is going to take more time.  This is bad news for Wisconsin as they have to play Ohio State to open October.

Week 3 conference rankings:
1. Ohio State (up 1)
2. Northwestern (up 1)
3. Michigan (down 2)
4. Wisconsin (no change)
5. Michigan State (up 2)
6. Penn State (no change)
7. Nebraska (down 2)
8. Indiana (no change)
9. Illinois (no change)
10. Minnesota (no change)
11. Iowa (no change)
12. Purdue (no change)

Week 3: Akron Recap

I was going to try to avoid doing the recap this week, but I think I owe it to my 4 faithful readers.  Michigan tripped and stumbled their way to what most call: the most disappointing win, ever. The Wolverines pulled out a 28-24 victory over hapless Akron. Just to warn you, this recap will be more from the discouraged mindset.

I usually try to start with anything encouraging from the game, but there is not much to choose from. The only thing that comes to mind is that Saturday’s game should have all but guaranteed Devin Gardner returned for a 5^th year, and hopefully he will not be making the same bad decisions in his second full season as a starter. If you can think of anything else that is a positive moving forward I would love to hear it.

I could just type the word everything and call this blog entry complete.  The Michigan Wolverines did little to nothing right on Saturday, and probably deserved to lose the game.  The important thing is they didn’t, and they remain one of 5 undefeated B1G teams. Let me just take notice of the most egregious aspects from the matchup with Akron.  Devin Gardner does not appear to have learned from his mistakes in the first two weeks of the season.  He turned the ball over 4 times alone in this game, 2 kept points off the board for Michigan and 1 gave Akron an immediate touchdown. Gardner will need to continue to grow as a decision maker if Team 134 is going to have a chance to accomplish their goals.

It looks like Notre Dame and Akron have given the nation a very good outline of how to move the ball against this Wolverine defense.  The key is quick passing routes to push Michigan into the nickel package, and then you can gash them on the ground.  Coach Mattison continues to say the natural pass rush from the front four is better than last season.  That doesn’t mean it is good enough yet.  The defensive line was able to get some push against the Zips, but it was slow developing and inconsistent. Too often the pressure comes from one player, but the remaining three struggle to keep contain and the quarterback just moves the pocket back to his favor. On top of the lack of a pass rush, Michigan seems content to sit back in a very soft, bend but don’t break zone coverage.  The Wolverines should have been able to completely overmatch the Zips with their athleticism, yet they sat back and let Kyle Pohl throw for 300+ yards. It seems like the third cornerback is still a long ways from being decided as they have played three different players in three weeks.  I still would like to see more Dymonte Thomas in the nickelback position, with his primary role being a blitzer.  I just cannot believe that Blake Countess (the best cover guy) is better at rushing the quarterback on third down. Connecticut likes to throw the ball around, so it will be interesting to see if Michigan changes their strategy at all.

There are many other areas that caused me to be devoid of emotions on Saturday afternoon, but the last thing I want to mention is the punting unit.  I thought Matt Wile was going to be a reliable punter, and we would barely notice the Hagerup suspension.  Through 3 games, I am noticing. It seems like Wile’s confidence is just way down, and if so Coach Hoke is the one of the best in the country to help players. But at some point letting Wile continue to shank punts will have a bigger impact on the outcome of a game. I would guess he would be on a very short leash this weekend, with Kenny Allen ready to go on the sideline. On top of the terrible punting, the punt coverage has continued to be below average.  Akron should have blocked a punt on Saturday, and when a punt is fielded there is seldom a time where any winged helmet is within 10 yards of the returner.

Top Performers

1.      Jehu Chesson

2.      Blake Countess

Areas of Concern

1.      Devin’s tendency to give opposition points

2.      Funchess blocking abilities

3.      Linebackers in coverage

4.      Pass rush

5.      Interior offensive line run blocking

6.      Developing a counter to runs to the left side

Michigan has now looked like the best team in the B1G and one of the worst all in the matter of 2 games.  UConn is not a good team, but who knows which Wolverines squad will show up. One thing I am sure of is that I don’t think Team 134 can play any worse the rest of the season.

Week 3: Akron Preview

Michigan managed to get past Notre Dame last weekend, and now they will have to try to play with similar intensity this week against one of the nation’s worst teams.  The Wolverines should get ample time to work out some kinks and involve all of the 3-deep roster.  While this game doesn’t look like much on paper, I think it will be very important to continue to get the young players more in-game snaps.  This could go a long ways towards helping this team in November.

Akron Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
Michigan sat back in their nickel package for most of last week, and this resulted in Notre Dame gashing the defense a few times on the ground.  It will be interesting to see which base defense Coach Mattison rolls with in this game given Akron’s passing spread attack. The Zips will likely only run the ball 10-15 times in this game, which would make sense to lean more towards a nickel package.  However, I would like to see Quinton Washington and Ondre Pipkens get more reps in the middle of the defense.  On the flip side, I think Dymonte Thomas is one of the best pure athletes that we have on the team right now, so letting him get more comfortable in the nickel package could reap huge rewards against teams like Nebraska, Northwestern, and Ohio State. Even though the Zips have a pretty big offensive line, the Wolverine front 6-7 should be able to keep Akron under 50 yards rushing. Advantage Michigan.

Akron Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
Like I mentioned before, the Zips run a passing spread style offense. Their goal will be to spread out the Michigan defense and complete a ton of short passes.  Short passes equal short routes, and short routes equal quick throws.  This should limit the amount of times Pohl or Hirschman hit the ground.  I still will be looking to see how much penetration the front four can generate on a consistent basis, and if Frank Clark really wants to get to 10 sacks this season he better start tomorrow.  The secondary was very successful last week to sit back in a softer zone coverage, make Rees throw into tight windows, and limit the YAC. A similar strategy might not be as effective this week since that is the goal of the Akron offense.  I would like to see Taylor, Countess, Hollowell, and Stribling play more press/man coverage.  Whichever strategy the secondary falls into, I predict the Wolverines will pick off at least 2 passes. Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Akron Rush Defense
Even though Fitz Toussaint didn’t rack up over 100 yards like I predicted, I thought he looked better than in week 1.  The interior offensive line struggled in run blocking, but Fitz still made things happen enough to keep the play action passing game effective. This week the interior line should have no such problem, and if they do then Michigan has even bigger issues.  I expect all 5 running backs to get carries tomorrow, and for the coaches to really try to find that 2^nd back which will be needed in the B1G.  I would also like to see someone step up as a designated 3^rd down back (like Vincent Smith) because Fitz struggled a lot last week in blitz pickups. Another thing to watch for is how the playing time is split between the tight ends. All 3 struggle with in-line blocking, but the Wolverines really need one of these guys to step up and because at least an average blocker.  This would make the offense even scarier. Look for Michigan to top the 200 yard mark on the ground. Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Akron Pass Defense
Devin Gardner had one of the best games for a Michigan quarterback that I have ever witnessed.  You will often hear that a good quarterback can make average receivers look great.  Now think what a good quarterback can do with receiving options like Gallon, Dileo, Funchess, Butt, etc.  On top of that, Gardner did this against one of the best defenses Michigan will face this season. Throw all of that together and you get the best quarterback in the B1G, and one of the best in the nation. It will be important for Devin to break the streak of making at least one terrible decision in every game he has started.  I think he will tomorrow. It is unclear how much Coach Borges will choose to throw the ball against Akron, but you can bet Devin will test the downfield waters for Gallon at least once.  I am looking for Gardner to get Chesson involved early by targeting him on some short throws, and eventually taking a shot deep with him as well.  Hopefully the new ol’ 98 can get his work in, get the 2^nd receiver involved as much as possible, and then hand the reins over to Shane Morris to get as many snaps as possible. Advantage Michigan.

Akron is not a good football team, and the score should not be close.  However, as much I would like to see a 65-0 victory, I think the coaching staff will put more importance on working out some weaknesses and involving as many players in the 3-deep roster as possible. The Zips should be punting the ball early and often, so look for Dennis Norfleet to finally get one in the end zone tomorrow.  Michigan gets a good full contact scrimmage in tomorrow, and continues to prepare for the B1G schedule.  Michigan 45 Akron 6

B1G Week 3 Preview

Week 3 is here, and with it comes the most important nonconference week of the season for the B1G.  Four teams will take on Pac 12 opponents and 3 others will face off against legitimate Division 1 foes.

Bowling Green State @ Indiana 12:00
Indiana made a splash in the opening week with an impressive offensive outburst, but the Hoosiers just couldn’t stop the unique Navy offense. This game is very intriguing.  If Indiana wants to be a bowl team this season they will need to find a way to win this game, but the Falcons are the best team in the MAC and could be this year’s Northern Illinois.  This one is going to be high scoring, and I actually think the Bowling Green defense will make at least one more stop than the Hoosiers and sneak out of Bloomington with a shootout win.  

Western Illinois @ Minnesota 12:00
The Gophers continue to beat up on terrible opponents, and Western Illinois should be the worst of the bunch.  Minnesota should be looking to get Philip Nelson going through the air.  The Gophers should roll big time.

UCLA @ Nebraska 12:00
If you remember last year, a chunk of B1G teams played Pac 12 opponents around this time and it was highlighted by the Huskers going to the Rose Bowl against UCLA.  You may also remember that QB Hundley and company racked up 600+ yards in what was an embarrassing game for Nebraska, and the rest of the conference. This year could be history repeating itself, except this year in Lincoln.  Even though the Husker defense bounced back with a dominating performance against a team unlikely to win a game this season, I still think they are among the worst in the B1G.  UCLA should again shred every aspect of these laughable black shirts. The questions will be, can Taylor Martinez make enough plays to hang in the game and will the road stadium force Hundley into more mistakes than Arm Punter. I want to see Nebraska win this game and try to turn the national opinion of the conference, but I just cant see them being able to outscore the Bruins.

Youngstown State @ Michigan State 12:00
When I looked at the Spartans schedule I assumed week 3 against FCS YSU would be a sleeper, but then after seeing the ineptitude of the MSU offense this game becomes more interesting. The Penguins are one of the better FCS teams, and likely have the best offense of the Spartan’s first three opponents. The Michigan State defense will likely still be able to dominate, but how long can that continue.  One of Sparty’s 4 quarterback-like players needs to emerge as the leader of the offense, and maybe score more than 1 offensive score in this game.  Michigan State moves to 3-0, but it still will not be pretty.

Iowa @ Iowa State 6:00
The battle of the Cy-Hawk trophy will again be a matchup that nobody cares about.  The Hawkeyes are trying not to be the worst team in the B1G, while the Cyclones are coming off of a loss to an FCS team.  This one should be some really ugly football, and will be full of 4^th and 2 punts from the opponent 38 yard line. 

Central Florida @ Penn State 6:00
The Hack Attack is out in full force in Happy Valley, and the Nittany Lions will get to test out their new shiny toy on a real opponent.  UCF is easily the best team Penn State will face until the Michigan showdown next month. Look for the Knights to blitz often to try to confuse the freshman quarterback.  This will result in at least one big passing play to Robinson.  UCF has a pretty balanced offensive approach, and should be able to test the depth of the Nittany Lion front 7. I think Penn State will pull out a close victory.

Washington @ Illinois 6:00
The Illini surprised everyone when they dominated Cincinnati last weekend, and now people are talking about them as a dark horse in the Leader’s Divison.  I still think they aren’t very good, but this weekend could change my opinion.  I think Steve Sarkesian is a really good coach out in Spokane, and will bring a very athletic team to Chicago tomorrow.  It is unlikely that the Illinois defense is much better from last year, so QB Price should have a huge day for the Huskies. I am interested to see how Bill Cubit and Nathan Scheelhasse handle one of the best defenses they will see this season.  This game could be close for a half, but UW should be able to pull away.

Ohio State @ California 7:00
The Buckeyes will be playing their first road nonconference game tomorrow night when they travel to the west coast. California is leading the nation in passing yards so far this season even with a freshman quarterback.  Ohio State will likely sit Braxton Miller to make sure he is healthy moving into conference play, but their offense is more than capable with Guiton under center. Northwestern scored 44 points on the Bears in the season opener, and the Buckeyes have a more prolific offense. I am interested to see how the sometimes soft pass defense from OSU can handle the Sonny Dykes attack.  This game could be high scoring, but the Buckeyes have too much talent to let Cal hang around too long.

Notre Dame @ Purdue 8:00
In case you missed it, the Irish got beat in Ann Arbor last weekend.  They now have to travel to West Lafayette for a matchup with their national rival, Purdue.  The Boilermakers are clearly the worst team in the conference, and it isn’t close. I think Notre Dame is a BCS-caliber team, so this one will get out of hand quickly.

Western Michigan @ Northwestern 9:00
At the time, the Broncos impressed in their season opener against Michigan State.  Now in the past 2 weeks we know the Spartan offense is bad, and Western lost to Nicholls State last weekend.  WMU might be one of the worst teams in the MAC this season.  Meanwhile, Northwestern has their sights set on the Rose Bowl. The Wildcats will need to continue to work on their pass coverage, and this game will be a good one to do it. Look for Northwestern to continue to rack up interceptions, and just blow the doors off of the Broncos.

Wisconsin @ Arizona State 10:30
The Badgers also go on the road for the first time under Gary Anderson. They travel to Tempe, where 100° heat and a stiff defense await.  I want Wisconsin to be good this season, if only to challenge Ohio State in the Leaders Division, but for some reason I expect the Badgers to struggle in this game. The Sun Devils are becoming a prolific offense under Todd Graham, and their defense might be one of the best Wisconsin faces this season. I think we will find out a lot more about Wisco this weekend, but I am not sure we will like it.

Week 3 Upset Alert

I am feeling pretty good after last week’s upset alert was spot on, but week 3 provides a tougher challenge.  There are not too many appealing options on the schedule, but hopefully the magic can continue.

TCU @ Texas Tech
This first choice is one of the reaches for the week.  I was impressed with how well the Horned Frogs played against LSU in the season opener, but the Tigers did put up a lot of points. TCU will be without their starting quarterback, Casey Pachall, and even though Trevone Boykin is a capable backup I think he will struggle on the road.  The Red Raiders will score points, regardless of playing the Big 12’s best defense.  I think Texas Tech can keep the score close into the 4^th quarter, and anything could happen at that point.

Ole Miss @ Texas
The Longhorns were the laughing stock of college football in week 2, which resulted in Defensive Coordinator Manny Diaz being fired and replaced by the ever incapable Greg Robinson.  Texas couldn’t stop the read option quarterback keeper last week against BYU.  You can be sure that Ole Miss will try their hand at it as well.  At some point the players at Texas have to realize they are talented, and play with some pride.  I am going to go out on a limb and say that it starts this weekend.  I can’t see Ole Miss slowing down the Longhorn offense led by David Ash, so this game should be high scoring.  I just have a feeling that the Texas offense makes one less mistake than Ole Miss and pulls out a close game.

Wisconsin @ Arizona State
I have no idea how good the Badgers are.  This week will be the first real football team they will face, and it happens to be on the west coast against another unknown team; Arizona State. Wisconsin will need to throw the ball at least somewhat effectively in this game, but haven’t shown they can do that with Stave as the signal caller.  One thing I am sure of is that the Badgers will be giving up their first points of the weekend.  

Additional Preview:
This week marks the first ‘Game of the Year’ matchup when Alabama travels to Texas A&M.  The Aggies stunned Tuscaloosa last season with an upset win, giving the Tide their only loss of the season.  Analysts keep saying that Bama’s offense is nothing impressive this season because of the inexperience up front. People are also saying that Johnny Manziel is in Nick Saban’s head, and will cement his Heisman defense this weekend.  I completely disagree.  I have watched both teams this season and I think Alabama will completely dominate this game in every facet.  The Aggie defense surrendered 31 points to lowly Rice, you can bet that the Tide’s struggling offense can hang at least that much.  Alabama opened with Virginia Tech which boasts the ACC’s best defense, and still managed to win by 25.  Yes, I know the offense only scored 2 touchdowns, and struggled to sustain drives.  AJ McCarron should be healed, and will show himself as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country and TJ Yeldon will bounce back with a huge game.  The current line on this game is Alabama by 7.5.  I would be surprised if Texas A&M keeps the score within 20 points.

B1G Week 2 Recap

This past weekend around the conference was the lull before the storm of week 3.  The only marquee matchup was the Michigan vs Notre Dame game, while the remaining 11 teams played cupcakes. 

Good surprise:
While Wisconsin has yet to play anyone above a junior high level, the Badgers still have not yielded a point.  The linebackers are in the discussion as the conference’s best, and they have been leading the overwhelming performances. Last Saturday Wisconsin yielded just 113 total yards.  This week they travel to the west coast for one of four B1G matchups vs the Pac 12.

Illinois offense looks like they are going to be able to score some points this season.  A week after Cincinnati took Purdue behind the woodshed, the Illini stuck up for their ashamed conference brethren.  New offensive coordinator, Bill Cubit, is acclimating himself nicely in Champaign and could help keep Coach Beckman off the hot seat. Senior Nathan Scheelhasse with 336 total yards and 4 touchdowns.  This week will be one of their stiffest tests of the season as they host Washington.

Things looked grim in Columbus on Saturday afternoon as Braxton Miller left the game on the first drive, and looked seriously injured. Even though San Diego State is one of the country’s worst teams this season, being without a Heisman favorite could have been a scary situation.  Instead the Buckeyes showed that they have the best backup quarterback in the conference, Kenny Guiton, and the Urban Meyer full-out spread offense might be more potent under the new signal caller. Guiton finished with 235 total yards and 3 touchdowns. Of course, Ohio State needs Miller back under center if they have national championship hopes, but they can afford to rest him until they get into the B1G schedule if needed.

Bad surprise:
I thought Indiana might be a scary team in the conference this year after their 73 point outburst in the opening week, but the Hoosiers followed it up by losing to Navy.  I predicted correctly that this game would be the best of the weekend, but didn’t expect Indiana to struggle so much with the triple option offense. The Hoosiers gave up 444 yards rushing on the night and 41 points, this does not bode well for them trying to stop Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and possibly even Penn State.

Since we didn’t really learn that much from the slate of games last week, the only other bad surprise I can come up with is the Spartan offense (again).  I know I shouldn’t be surprised by how truly miserable they are this year, but it still caught me off guard when the Green and White couldn’t score on South Florida.  In case you were wondering, no USF has a terrible defense and gave up 53 points to an average FCS team (McNeese St) at home in week one. Sparty’s offense now has scored a grand total of two touchdowns on the season, meanwhile their defense has accounted for four. No team in college football history has finished with their defense scoring more than 25% of its touchdowns, and at this point the offense will need to rack up 10 touchdowns in a row just to get to that number.  Maybe this week against Youngstown St, the Spartans can at least decide on a starting quarterback.

Week 1 conference rankings:
1. Michigan (no change)
2. Ohio St (no change)
3. Northwestern (no change)
4. Wisconsin (no change)
5. Nebraska (up 1)
6. Penn State (down 1)
7. Michigan State (up 1)
8. Indiana (down 1)
9. Illinois (up 2)
10. Minnesota (down 1)
11. Iowa (down 1)
12. Purdue

Week 2: Notre Dame Recap

The Michigan Wolverines pulled out a hard fought victory Saturday night for UTLII.  It marked another spectacular event thrown by the Michigan athletic department, and another data point about why Notre Dame wants out of the rivalry.  Michigan quarterbacks have been the main storyline in the past four games of this series, with 3 of them making Wolverine fans extremely happy.  Devin Gardner’s 376 yards was the 8^th most yards in one contest in Michigan history, and the 2010 and 2011 matchups resulted with Denard topping the all-time list.  So as the fighting chickens move on to greener pastures against the likes of Michigan State and Purdue, lets look back on yet another unforgettable matchup in the Big House.

The optimism for the Maize and Blue defense faded a bit after week one. The most concerning part being how badly the Wolverines were controlled in the trenches.  Notre Dame does boast one of the best offensive lines that is currently on Team 134’s schedule, but I expected the defensive line to perform better. It was obvious early-on that the front four was just unable to generate much pressure on Tommy Rees, and he was able to pick apart the secondary.  Coach Mattison rarely sent blitzes, and when he did Rees was able to audible to a quick pass and still avoid pressure.  However, this appeared to be by design.  The Michigan coaching staff decided to play softer in the back 7 in order to keep every pass play in front of them, instead forcing the mistake-prone Irish QB to beat them with short throws all the way down the field.  The result was Notre Dame looking unstoppable between the 20s, but as the field reduced so was Tommy Rees’ efficiency.  This game plan put a lot of pressure on the Michigan secondary tackling ability, and they did not disappoint.  Raymon Taylor and Thomas Gordon led the team in tackles, and I can only remember one missed tackle all game from the unit which came from the 3^rd cornerback (Hollowell). Since I think Tommy Rees is the best pocket passer on the schedule this year, forcing any other signal caller to beat you by stringing together multiple accurate short passes will be a positive for the Michigan defense.

In the running game, Notre Dame again had some success outside of short yardage situations.  I am unclear how much this was to do with Michigan sitting back in a 4-2-5 Nickel package for most of the game, or it’s a concerning weakness of the defense.  At this point I am leaning towards the former. The front four struggled to hold their blocks, or generate any penetration which resulted in the linebackers getting swallowed up by the Irish offensive linemen.  Since linebackers are much better in space, attacking gaps, this was not ideal.  Michigan pulled the nose tackle often and left undersized ends to hold up in the middle of the defensive line.  I have a feeling a similar type of defensive strategy will be used against Nebraska, Northwestern, and Ohio State.

The Michigan offense hung 41 points on by far the best defensive lines (and one of the best overall defenses) on the schedule. Notre Dame had no answer for Devin Gardner’s athleticism, accuracy, or playmaking abilities. Even though the young interior line struggled, the running backs did not go over 100 yards, and the 2^nd receiver is still unknown; Michigan scored more points than any team will on the Irish this season.  Outside of the one terrible decision from Gardner, he was near perfection and likely vaulted himself into national recognition.  He constantly looked down pressure and made the confident throw to the open receiver.  It helped that Notre Dame just could not stay near Jeremy Gallon.  The Wolverines consistently moved the ball against the Irish, and sustained drives by mixing in runs by Fitz or Devin and an effective play action passing attack.  It now looks like the true freshman that will be relied on most will be Jake Butt who’s in line blocking is already as good, if not better, than Devin Funchess.  Yes, it would have been nice to see the offensive line not break down so much against the stiff competition, or Toussaint having more running lanes and topping 100 yards again, but scoring 41 points on a real opponent is impressive. The scary thing is that the Michigan offense isn’t clicking on all cylinders yet, but they have scored 100 points in the first two games for the first time since 1947.

Top Performers

1. Jeremy Gallon

2. Devin Gardner

3. Blake Countess

4. Raymon Taylor

5. Thomas Gordon

Areas of Concern

1.      Defensive line’s ability to rush four

2.      Interior offensive line’s run blocking

3.      Frank Clark’s lack of production

4.      2^nd receiver position

Michigan just pulled out what will likely be the conference’s best nonconference win in the 2013 season.  While there are many areas to improve, the Wolverine’s schedule lessens drastically which should give them a chance to prepare for the grinding November schedule. 

Week 2: Notre Dame Preview

Everyone knows the significance of this week’s game against Notre Dame, and everyone knows that if Michigan is going to have a special season the Wolverines will need to scratch out a win tomorrow night.  Although last week against CMU was encouraging, tomorrow will be a very good litmus test for Team 134.

Notre Dame Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The final rushing stats for the Chips were very poor, but how much of that was due to losing Tipton so early?  I would like to say that the Wolverines rush defense will continue their dominance throughout the season, but at this point we just don’t know.  We did see that Coach Mattison likes to play in a Nickel package, and opted to remove the nose tackle for much of the game to replace him with another defensive back.  It will be interesting to see how well the lesser beefed up defensive line can hold up against a decent offensive line.  Notre Dame returns three players up front, including both linemen on the left side.  The area to attack will be on the opposite side, and it will be important to try to get one of the Wolverine pass rushers matched up there.  Notre Dame lost their top two running backs from last season, and replaces them with smaller; spread type scat backs (think wanabe Venric Mark’s).  I am worried that the Nickel package will make the Maize and Blue too small up front to be able to withstand the push from a real sized offensive line.  If these quick guys get into the second level of the defense bad things will happen for Michigan.  If the Wolverines can hold up in the nickel it means extremely good things for this game and moving forward.  If they are forced into the standard 4-3 for the majority of the game, Michigan will stop the Irish rushing attack but likely at the expense of a passing explosion.  I would have to imagine Coach Hoke and company are more afraid of Rees throwing the ball than McDaniel or Carlisle breaking out for a huge day. The inside linebackers will be asked to do a lot in this game, and I think they shine in this game.  Advantage Michigan.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
Tommy Rees returns under center for the Fighting Irish, and if you recall he has put up some big numbers against the Wolverines in his career.  He is also the only quarterback in the history of college football to experience a night game at the Big House.  Rees is coming off of a career day against Temple where he threw for 346 yards and 3 TDs.  While Notre Dame does not have the big name receivers of past years, they have a very formidable corps. Darvaris Daniels seems to be a viable option as a downfield threat, with TJ Jones being an open field nightmare underneath. Also, the Irish have another huge tight end that could test Ross in coverage.  It will be very interesting to see if the Wolverines match up in a man-to-man coverage for most of the night, or fall back into a zone.  As I mentioned above, Michigan will be looking to attack Rees from the right side of the offensive line, and I think Jibreel Black or Frank Clark could have some success on the inside.  If the Wolverine pass rush has improved as much as we hope, tomorrow night will be a very good early season test.  The biggest factor in this area will be the return of two safeties for the Maize and Blue.  The worst play from the defense last week came from both safety positions. While it looks like Jarrod Wilson has improved dramatically, Courtney Avery will be able to provide reliable experience if needed.  On the other side, I think Thomas Gordon is one of the better B1G safeties, so him returning to the lineup will be a very good thing.  Over the years Tommy Rees has not responded will to pressure, so if the Wolverine front four can collapse the pocket look for number 11 to turn the ball over multiple times.  If Rees is allowed to sit back in the pocket for chunks of time, look for him to pick apart the young Michigan secondary.  As much as I want to believe the pass rush has taken a major jump forward, I think the Irish have the upper hand here.  Advantage Notre Dame.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Notre Dame Rush Defense
In case you didn’t know, Notre Dame has 3 of the biggest defensive linemen on the planet.  The smallest one is around Quinton Washington’s size, with the largest being roughly the size of a small planet.  I think this matchup will be the biggest factor to the outcome of the game.  The Wolverine offensive line looked extremely good against Central, and will get their stiffest test of the season tomorrow night.  I think the rushing game plan will be to attack the edges of the Notre Dame defense to make the scary face-masked wooly mammoths run and to test the weakest part of the defense, linebackers. Michigan was able to get Lewan involved in the rushing attack last week for the first time in 2 years, and whenever you can get a legitimate NFL left tackle as a lead blocker good things will happen.  I will be interested to see how Glasgow-Miller-Kalis handle Louis Nix, and if Al Borges breaks out any power pulls to the left (Kalis pulling to Lewan’s side).  They did very little of it against the Chips last weekend, but I have to guess that it will be a significant part of the game plan tomorrow night.  Temple was able to average almost 5 ypc last week against this vaunted front seven, so if Michigan can get the edge look for similar numbers.  This also might force the Irish out of their standard 3-4 defense, just to get more bodies at the point of attack.  I think Fitz and company will have a big day on the ground, and a Wolverine back will go over 100 yards.  Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Notre Dame Pass Defense
Devin Gardner had a very pedestrian season opener.  He made a few marvelous passes while mixing in a few bad decisions.  I thought the offensive line was very good in pass protection last week, and they will need to be again against the Irish.  Stephon Tuitt is another mountain defensive end, but even at 322 pounds he pass rushing freak.  Hopefully, Taylor Lewan will be matched up with him most of the night, and if so this threat will be somewhat neutralized.  If you remember my preview from last year, it mentioned how inexperienced the Notre Dame secondary was.  It never really was tested last season because Denard was on his back or throwing directly to Manti Te’o all game, but you might also have noticed that the receivers were constantly wide open on the outside.  The Irish return the same cornerbacks from a year ago, and I still think they are shaky.  Jeremy Gallon should be consistently open when he is on the field.  Look for Brian Kelly to double cover him for most of the game, and force Devin to find a second weapon.  There are some options here for Michigan.  Since the linebackers looked lost last weekend against Temple, Funchess could have a huge game.  If he is struggling to get off the line, then Chesson and Dileo should also be able to get separation more times than not.  The real test here is will Al Borges change up his game plan somewhat and move towards quicker underneath throws (slants, screens, TE curls) to help the young offensive line against the pass rush, or keep the motto: chicks dig the long ball.  This strategy could result in some huge plays if the offensive line can hold up, but if not Devin could be sandwiched between 700 pounds of leprechaun.  I would like to think that Borges would be willing to go with the strategy that has the best chance of success, but as we have seen before that hasn’t always been the case (2011 MSU, 2011 Iowa, 2012 OSU).  Advantage Push.

As much as I would love the Wolverines to wipe the field with Notre Dame on their last trip to Ann Arbor, I think this game has the makings of another close one.  The Irish have more proven talent on the field, but Michigan has the most potential.  If the Wolverines can win the battle in the trenches, they will be in very good shape to win.  However, Notre Dame has the edge on paper.  Turnovers and special teams will have a big role in the outcome.  I think Devin Gardner will have at least one very stupid mistake, but Tommy Rees will have one more.  Also, if Michigan can cover any punts well, the Wolverines will have a decided advantage on special teams.  Look for Dennis Norfleet to have a big game.  Michigan 31 – Notre Dame 21.

Week 2 Upset Alert

Last week’s upset alert went pretty well.  Washington destroyed an overrated Boise State and South Carolina had a close half until winning comfortably. The second week of the season still provides limited options for a potential upset, but hopefully I can pick out a few.

Florida @ Miami
Kirk Herbstreit actually picked the Gators to lose to Toledo at home last weekend.  Florida dominated.  This week they head to Miami.  It is still unknown how good the Canes actually are this season, but this should be one of the more competitive top 25 games this weekend.  Miami will look to grind out yards with Duke Johnson, while throwing in well-timed play action passes.  I think the Gator offense will continue to struggle, and will leave the door open for the Canes to pull off the upset on their home field.

South Carolina @ Georgia
The Georgia/ Clemson game was very well played for being the first game of the season, and I was blown away with the amount of speed on both offenses.  Even though Clemson came away with the game, I think Georgia is still one of the best teams in the SEC.  This is a very important game for the Dawgs, because making another SEC Championship Game will be near impossible after starting 0-2.  South Carolina’s offense is nowhere close to Clemson’s, which should help the young Georgia defense.  Also, outside of the Gamecock’s pass rush (mainly from Clowney), I think the Dawgs will be able to move the ball on Saturday.  Even if both defenses struggle, I just cannot see South Carolina’s offense be able to keep up with Aaron Murray, Todd Gurley, and company.

B1G Week 2 Preview

The B1G looked a little more respectable in the opening weekend of the 2013 season, but only a little.  There really aren’t too many conference games to get excited about in week 2, but lets take a look anyways.

South Florida @ Michigan State 12:00
Michigan State was one of the more disappointing teams last week.  The offense looks like the returners have not improved, and they are without their two biggest playmakers (Bell and Sims).  The Spartans desperately need one of their 4 QBs to take hold of the starting role.  South Florida still has some talented players that could challenge Michigan State, but I think the Spartans will grind out an ugly win.

Eastern Michigan @ Penn State 12:00
I think Hackenberg will continue to gain confidence with each start.  Look for Penn State to try to get the rushing attack on track this Saturday against the Eagles.  Penn State should roll in this one.

Tennessee Tech @ Wisconsin 12:00
The Badgers continue their daunting nonconference schedule. Gordon and White will be looking to finish with more yards than the entire Tennessee Tech team.

Cincinnati @ Illinois 12:00
The Bearcats took it to Purdue last weekend, but it is unknown if most of that was due to Purdue’s ability or Cincinnati being better than expected.  This one should be a high scoring game, and I think the Bearcats will be able to outscore the Illini.

Missouri State @ Iowa 12:00
The Hawkeyes will be looking to bounce back against Missouri State.  Iowa surprisingly kept the game against Northern Illinois pretty close, so that shows me that they are better than I expected or the Huskies are just an average MAC team.  I think it is a little bit of both, and look for Iowa to have a big weekend.

Indiana State @ Purdue 12:00
The Sycamore defense is awful (73 points to IU) and the Purdue offense isn’t much better (7 points against Cincy).  I think Indiana State will score 20+ points, but the Boilers have to be able to crack 30 against these guys.

San Diego State @ Ohio State 3:30
A few years ago this matchup might be more anticipated, but the Aztecs are coming off of a loss to an FCS team and OSU is coming off a disappointing 20 point win over Buffalo.  I have a feeling that SDSU will come out angry and try to forget about the debacle of last weekend, but the Buckeyes are just too talented and will pull away for a very comfortable win.

Syracuse @ Northwestern 6:00
Cuse looks to even its record against B1G opponents, but it’s a tougher task this weekend against Northwestern. The Wildcats return home after the conference’s best win in week 1, and will hopefully get Colter and Mark back from injuries.  I think Syracuse will score more against Northwestern, but the Wildcats are going to push 40 with either Colter or Siemian.

Navy @ Indiana 6:00
I probably could have gone with the Syracuse/ Northwestern game for the marquee matchup, but I wanted to give the Hoosiers some love.  This game is intriguing on paper because of the two contrasting styles.  Indiana will finish with more passes on the opening drive as Navy does for the game.  I actually think the Midshipmen’s best defense will be their running attack and ability to control the clock.  This will be a big test for the Hoosier defense.  It is tough to prepare for Navy’s unique offense.  I think Indiana will pull this game out, but it could be very high scoring.

Southern Miss @ Nebraska 6:00
Lets see how the Husker’s defense responds to being the laughing stock of the conference.  I don’t think the Golden Eagle offense is as potent as Wyoming, but Nebraska has the uncanny ability to make any offense look decent.  Look for Martinez, Cross, and Abdullah to finish with over 100 yards on the ground.

Minnesota @ New Mexico State 8:00
The Golden Gophers really didn’t play that well last week, but came away with a blowout victory.  I will be very interested to see how the Minnesota offense responds, especially Philip Nelson.  The Aggies should be one of the worst teams in division one this season, so Jerry Kill’s team should get some good practice on the road Saturday night.

B1G Week 1 Recap

The opening weekend of the season was a little more kind to the B1G in 2013 as compared to last year.  Could the conference be on the upswing?

Good surprise:
Indiana’s offensive outburst. I knew the Hoosiers had a very good offense, but I didn’t expect them to put up 73 points.  The Crimson and Cream could surprise some of the top end conference teams this season, and should be able make a bowl game.

Christian Hackenberg took over the helm at Penn State with an impressive performance against a power 6 team to open his career.  He finished 22-31 for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Even though the scholarship limits will greatly affect Penn State’s overall talent the next 4 years, they will have one of the best pocket passers in the conference.

Northwestern was favored heading into the matchup with California mainly due to the returning offensive playmakers (Colter and Mark), but when both went down with injury Trevor Siemian and Treyvon Green stepped up.  Siemian finished 18-29 with 276 yards and one TD, and Green finished with 129 yards on 16 carries and 2 TDs. The Wildcats have a very good 2 deep at QB and RB.

Nebraska’s forgotten running back Imani Cross looked like one of the conference’s best backs against Wyoming.  He finished with 105 yards on 13 carries while scoring 2 TDs.  

Bad surprise:
For the 2^nd straight B1G Week 1 recap I am going to list the Michigan State offense in this category.  I really thought that Andrew Maxwell was going to take a sizable leap forward in his second year as the starting quarterback.  He would also be helped by playing a weak WMU team. However, Maxwell looked like he had no confidence in his abilities and was constantly waiting to be replaced.  He finished 11-21 for 74 yards, and the Spartan defense outscored their offense.

Nobody thought Purdue was going to compete for the Leaders Division crown, but little thought they would compete with Illinois for the right to last place.  The Boilers traveled to a rebuilding Cincinnati and got their doors blown off by the Bearcats, 42-7.  In my preview I said if they could pull the game out then Purdue should be a bowl team again, but at this point it looks like 4 wins will be a struggle.

I expected the Cornhusker defense to be among the league’s worst, but I didn’t think that would mean giving up 34 points at home to Wyoming.  Nebraska was lucky to come out with a win against the Cowboys, and their defense is solely to blame.  The vaunted black shirt defense gave up 602 yards to a Big Sky team. Between Michigan State’s lack of offense and the Husker’s inability to stop practice dummies, the Legends Division might be a two team race if these two squads don’t show major improvements.

Week 1 conference rankings:
1. Michigan
2. Ohio St
3. Northwestern
4. Wisconsin
5. Penn State
6. Nebraska
7. Indiana
8. Michigan State
9. Minnesota
10. Iowa
11. Illinois
12. Purdue