Everyone knows the significance of this week’s game against Notre Dame, and everyone knows that if Michigan is going to have a special season the Wolverines will need to scratch out a win tomorrow night. Although last week against CMU was encouraging, tomorrow will be a very good litmus test for Team 134.
Notre Dame Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The final rushing stats for the Chips were very poor, but how much of that was due to losing Tipton so early? I would like to say that the Wolverines rush defense will continue their dominance throughout the season, but at this point we just don’t know. We did see that Coach Mattison likes to play in a Nickel package, and opted to remove the nose tackle for much of the game to replace him with another defensive back. It will be interesting to see how well the lesser beefed up defensive line can hold up against a decent offensive line. Notre Dame returns three players up front, including both linemen on the left side. The area to attack will be on the opposite side, and it will be important to try to get one of the Wolverine pass rushers matched up there. Notre Dame lost their top two running backs from last season, and replaces them with smaller; spread type scat backs (think wanabe Venric Mark’s). I am worried that the Nickel package will make the Maize and Blue too small up front to be able to withstand the push from a real sized offensive line. If these quick guys get into the second level of the defense bad things will happen for Michigan. If the Wolverines can hold up in the nickel it means extremely good things for this game and moving forward. If they are forced into the standard 4-3 for the majority of the game, Michigan will stop the Irish rushing attack but likely at the expense of a passing explosion. I would have to imagine Coach Hoke and company are more afraid of Rees throwing the ball than McDaniel or Carlisle breaking out for a huge day. The inside linebackers will be asked to do a lot in this game, and I think they shine in this game. Advantage Michigan.
Notre Dame Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
Tommy Rees returns under center for the Fighting Irish, and if you recall he has put up some big numbers against the Wolverines in his career. He is also the only quarterback in the history of college football to experience a night game at the Big House. Rees is coming off of a career day against Temple where he threw for 346 yards and 3 TDs. While Notre Dame does not have the big name receivers of past years, they have a very formidable corps. Darvaris Daniels seems to be a viable option as a downfield threat, with TJ Jones being an open field nightmare underneath. Also, the Irish have another huge tight end that could test Ross in coverage. It will be very interesting to see if the Wolverines match up in a man-to-man coverage for most of the night, or fall back into a zone. As I mentioned above, Michigan will be looking to attack Rees from the right side of the offensive line, and I think Jibreel Black or Frank Clark could have some success on the inside. If the Wolverine pass rush has improved as much as we hope, tomorrow night will be a very good early season test. The biggest factor in this area will be the return of two safeties for the Maize and Blue. The worst play from the defense last week came from both safety positions. While it looks like Jarrod Wilson has improved dramatically, Courtney Avery will be able to provide reliable experience if needed. On the other side, I think Thomas Gordon is one of the better B1G safeties, so him returning to the lineup will be a very good thing. Over the years Tommy Rees has not responded will to pressure, so if the Wolverine front four can collapse the pocket look for number 11 to turn the ball over multiple times. If Rees is allowed to sit back in the pocket for chunks of time, look for him to pick apart the young Michigan secondary. As much as I want to believe the pass rush has taken a major jump forward, I think the Irish have the upper hand here. Advantage Notre Dame.
Michigan Rush Offense vs Notre Dame Rush Defense
In case you didn’t know, Notre Dame has 3 of the biggest defensive linemen on the planet. The smallest one is around Quinton Washington’s size, with the largest being roughly the size of a small planet. I think this matchup will be the biggest factor to the outcome of the game. The Wolverine offensive line looked extremely good against Central, and will get their stiffest test of the season tomorrow night. I think the rushing game plan will be to attack the edges of the Notre Dame defense to make the scary face-masked wooly mammoths run and to test the weakest part of the defense, linebackers. Michigan was able to get Lewan involved in the rushing attack last week for the first time in 2 years, and whenever you can get a legitimate NFL left tackle as a lead blocker good things will happen. I will be interested to see how Glasgow-Miller-Kalis handle Louis Nix, and if Al Borges breaks out any power pulls to the left (Kalis pulling to Lewan’s side). They did very little of it against the Chips last weekend, but I have to guess that it will be a significant part of the game plan tomorrow night. Temple was able to average almost 5 ypc last week against this vaunted front seven, so if Michigan can get the edge look for similar numbers. This also might force the Irish out of their standard 3-4 defense, just to get more bodies at the point of attack. I think Fitz and company will have a big day on the ground, and a Wolverine back will go over 100 yards. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan Pass Offense vs Notre Dame Pass Defense
Devin Gardner had a very pedestrian season opener. He made a few marvelous passes while mixing in a few bad decisions. I thought the offensive line was very good in pass protection last week, and they will need to be again against the Irish. Stephon Tuitt is another mountain defensive end, but even at 322 pounds he pass rushing freak. Hopefully, Taylor Lewan will be matched up with him most of the night, and if so this threat will be somewhat neutralized. If you remember my preview from last year, it mentioned how inexperienced the Notre Dame secondary was. It never really was tested last season because Denard was on his back or throwing directly to Manti Te’o all game, but you might also have noticed that the receivers were constantly wide open on the outside. The Irish return the same cornerbacks from a year ago, and I still think they are shaky. Jeremy Gallon should be consistently open when he is on the field. Look for Brian Kelly to double cover him for most of the game, and force Devin to find a second weapon. There are some options here for Michigan. Since the linebackers looked lost last weekend against Temple, Funchess could have a huge game. If he is struggling to get off the line, then Chesson and Dileo should also be able to get separation more times than not. The real test here is will Al Borges change up his game plan somewhat and move towards quicker underneath throws (slants, screens, TE curls) to help the young offensive line against the pass rush, or keep the motto: chicks dig the long ball. This strategy could result in some huge plays if the offensive line can hold up, but if not Devin could be sandwiched between 700 pounds of leprechaun. I would like to think that Borges would be willing to go with the strategy that has the best chance of success, but as we have seen before that hasn’t always been the case (2011 MSU, 2011 Iowa, 2012 OSU). Advantage Push.
As much as I would love the Wolverines to wipe the field with Notre Dame on their last trip to Ann Arbor, I think this game has the makings of another close one. The Irish have more proven talent on the field, but Michigan has the most potential. If the Wolverines can win the battle in the trenches, they will be in very good shape to win. However, Notre Dame has the edge on paper. Turnovers and special teams will have a big role in the outcome. I think Devin Gardner will have at least one very stupid mistake, but Tommy Rees will have one more. Also, if Michigan can cover any punts well, the Wolverines will have a decided advantage on special teams. Look for Dennis Norfleet to have a big game. Michigan 31 – Notre Dame 21.
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