Leaving early for NBA draft

The NBA is killing college basketball, and when is it going to stop?  Sadly, I don’t think it will anytime soon.  By now, people know that I can’t stand the No Basketball Association, but I think one of the root reasons why is what it continues to do to the sport that I love.  The NBA draft and college entry processes need to be revised to better both entities.

What am I talking about?  Well, lets just take a look at the Michigan basketball program.  The Wolverines are coming off winning their first B1G championship in 26 years.  It was the first one I have seen in my lifetime.  After losing Morris, the expectations around Ann Arbor was for the team to be on the bubble for most of the year again.  This Michigan team was never on the bubble.  They locked up a post season bid early in the season.  They began just playing for seeding, which turned out to be their highest in 15 years. The program has begun a dramatic incline in expectations, talent, and prestige.  Just with a flash though it can be back to square one.  Why?  Because of a freshman point guard trying to choose either the NBA or college.  While most teams have more depth and wouldn’t be so paralyzed if one of their players left early, Michigan basically needs one or two years to be in that position.  They are still on the way to the top, and not there yet.  While it is hard to be mad at Trey Burke if he does decide the NBA is what is better for his life.  The kid has a chance to get paid to play a game.  He doesn’t owe Michigan anything, and as fans we shouldn’t expect him to.  What I am frustrated at is this whole early entry process.  Basketball is unlike any other college sport, there are only 13 scholarship players. No other sport relies on individuals more than the round ball, which is one of the knocks of the sport I love.. but anyways I move on.  Unless you are UNC, Duke, MSU, Kansas, and maybe 1 or 2 other schools, those bottome 5 scholarships are given to average at best players.  There just isn’t enough playing time to go around, period.  Instead of going to a D2 school and starring, some players would rather be the practice team on a high level D1 school.  This leaves 8-10 realistic contributors to a basketball team.  I have never seen a team that gives quality minutes to 11+ guys.  Likely out of the remaining 8-10 players, there is a noticeable divide between the top 6 and the remaining 2-4.  While these depth players are extremely important, they are not starters and likely not starters on rival teams either.  Now we have whittled the team down to 6 players.  If one guy, especially the quarterback on the floor, decides to leave early it can cripple a team’s progress.  It is simply not possible to recruit every position in every incoming class.  Most likely you can expect classes of 3-4 players every year. 

Right now college basketball coaches have to risk which positions to focus on each year. They have to continue to build depth and always have players leaving early in the back of their mind.  The major reason Michigan’s program has begun to rise is because of recruiting and player development.  When a program is down, a coach has a harder time getting players to come there.  This means that Beilein has to do a bulk of his recruiting extremely early and hope his scouting is correct.  Look at all of Michigan’s recruits over this span, Morris committed early and Michigan was the only one interested until his senior year.  Hardaway had the name, but not the offers.  He committed as soon as possible to Michigan, and then us fans began to watch his stock rise.  And this next class is an even better example of this.  Stauskas and Robinson were barely in the top 100 recruits, and weren’t included on some rankings. Now Robinson is next in line to get a 5 star.  Stauskas keeps rising and now is a unanimous top 70 player. This is how you recruit top notch players to come to rebuild a team.  If Burke leaves early, Beilein has little to no time to find a replacement.  Especially a top rated guy.  Michigan will be lucky to get a depth player at that 8-10 range on the bench with this last player.

There needs to be changes to the current system.  My opinion is that coming out of high school, players should be able to enter the NBA draft if they would like.  Because the current system, if you know you are going to be a one and done player, you do not need to attend a single class the 2^nd semester.  You don’t need to worry about being elgible.  That is not fair to the rest of the guys on the team who are working their tail off every day to make it as a student athlete.  I think if a player wants to enter his name into the draft out of high school, then let him do it.  If they don’t hire an agent, let them see their draft status.  If they are drafted in the later rounds (where contracts are not guaranteed), let them make the choice to go back to school.  This would mean the NBA draft would have to be expanded to 3 or 4 rounds.  Now this is the important change, once a player has signed his LOI to attend a college they should not be able to leave to go pro for 2 more years.  This will give coaches some insurance on recruiting.  Michigan recruits a point guard every 2 years that they see as being the starter, and then somewhere in there they get a backup guy.  The other way that this could be handled is to have the NBA draft replicate the NHL or MLB.  Kids can be drafted after graduating, and then that team has their rights until a certain date.  If the player chooses to go to school, then the draft is void… until the next year where they could be chosen again. 

Right now I think it is a huge risk to leave college early if you have a chance to be a 2^nd round pick.  The current system is not helping college programs, but more so the players that do end up declaring early who end up in the 2^nd round or not even drafted.  Shouldn’t going pro help the players a little bit?

Final Four preview

The NCAA tournament is almost over.  The 3 weeks go so fast every year.  I look forward to noon on that first Thursday, and like that we are at the Final Four.  There have been a fair share of upsets in the first round of this tournament, but for the most part the final four has 4 very good teams with no true Cinderellas. 

I have been disappointed by the coaching in this years tournament to be honest.  I have seen too many teams shoot 3s at the end of the game when they are only down 2, or hold for the last shot when they are down 3 instead of getting the quick two and making the other team keep making free throws, or just not taking a timeout at the end of the game to draw up a play.  The execution in the last minute has been subpar for most of the tournament.  There are countless games where I can look back and wonder where is the “magic” of the tournament.  The magic this year was a lack of basketball IQ to allow teams to escape with wins that they might not otherwise get.  But, even though this has been disappointing so far, the tournament has been exciting like always. 

The number 1 seeds were instantly in question after Syracuse found out Melo was out for the tournament.  I thought Missouri could have taken that last 1 seed, and Syracuse been pushed down to Mizzou’s position.  Then UNC lost Marshall late in the Creighton game.  MSU just forgot to show up in their sweet 16 game against Louisville, and Kentucky is just rolling over opponents.

The tournament still is Kentucky’s to lose, as it was before a single game was to be played.  They are head and shoulders better than the next closest team.  UNC might have been able to keep up with them for a while, but only if Marshall was completely healthy.  If they lose this year, there is something very wrong with Calipari’s coaching ability.  Sure he can recruit better than anyone since John Wooden’s days (where there were no scholarship limits), but how do you not win a championship when you have 4 more sure NBA players than the next most talented Final Four team.  The Wildcats could have 6 draft picks in the first 35 choices.  They seem to be hitting their stride lately, and I just cant see someone matching their athleticism. 

Although the Final Four is where the coaches make their money.  It is where the best coaches shine and the average ones look like fools.  Enter Thad Matta.  When you look at the roster, you can easily see why the Bucknuts are in this position, but then you look at the gump leading them there and you think it could be a practical joke.  Seriously, Bucknut fans, do you like this clown?  He might be the worst x’s and o’s guy I have ever seen at such a high profile job (maybe Isaiah Thomas comes close).  He recruits like an SEC football program, and then gets out-coached in almost every game.  His late game strategies are confusing at times, and likely cost the team at least 1 game per season.  Luckily, that number has been held at a couple of regular season games and not when it really matters. I think OSU’s physicality could really effect Kentucky’s athleticism, but it will be a battle of which coach will make enough terrible decisions to lose. 

Louisville was a preseason top 10 team, and then they looked awful for most of the year.  They were only barely in the top 20 after winning the big East tourney.  And now they are on a similar run that UConn was last season. Some people overlook that this Cardinals team is just not that good.  They have gotten a dream cruise to the Final Four.  I am not saying that they don’t deserve to be in this place, but they got to play a 7 seed Florida in the Elite 8. They were going to lose to a 7 seed Florida in the elite 8, until the Gators decided that they didn’t want to face Kentucky again and then promptly choked over the final 3 minutes.  They got to play a completely unprepared MSU team.  How often do you see the Spartans look like deer in the headlights in March?  It was one of the first times for me.  Louisville tried to lose that game as well, but the Sparty pride was just too much.  Both teams were shooting less than 20% in the first half.  were they all shooting left handed? 

This brings us to the Jayhawks.  A team that you could say limped into the Final Four.  They should have lost to Purdue in round 2, but Purdue forgot that they had 4 other guys on the floor besides Robbie Hummel.  They played and coached not to lose down the stretch and guess what… they Lloyd Carr’d it and ended up losing a game they completely deserved to win.  Kansas moved on to face the Wolfpack, an 11 seed.  Kansas actually played pretty well for the 2^nd half of the game, but then couldn’t make a free throw to allow NC State to hang around.  Nex they faced the depleted Tar Heels.  They were playing what seemed like a walk on point guard.  This dude might have been the worst on ball defender out of anyone in the Elite 8.  It was a big time matchup between big time programs, but in the end UNC just didn’t have enough fire power to pull the game out.  Maybe people realize just how important Kendall Marshall was to the team now.  With Harrison Barnes terrible tournament, it means that he should be around for the Pistons to take (even if Detroit keeps winning).  That is good news for us Michiganders.

I am just hoping that the remaining 3 games will be close and can we get some late game execution people?  I just don’t see how Louisville hangs with Kentucky right now, unless Dieng has 20 block shots on uni-brow… not likely.  Kentucky wins easily.. again.  In the second game, this rematch should be very exciting.  The first time the teams played, Sullinger was out nursing a sore throat from whining to the refs so much.  Kansas controlled the game and won pretty easily.  This time, OSU is playing better basketball, but will the refs let them play?  Or will we get the double bonus with 12 minutes left again?  Somehow I just cant see Thad Matta ever win a National Championship, he is just a moron.  I would like to think a coach needs some sense to win it all.  Tyshawn Taylor will have to show up for KU to win, but somehow I think they do.  Kansas is the only team remaining that I wouldn’t mind seeing win a championship.  They are led by 3 seniors, not 18 freshman, and their coach doesn’t cheat or get accused of sexual harassment. Go Jayhawks.   

State Finals Recap!!! 17 years and counting

The State Finals were a lot of fun like usual, even though there was only 1 good game during the day.  The tradition was started with my dad in the late 70s, when he watched Earvin “Magic” Johnson take the title in 1977, then he saw Antoine “The Judge” Joubert and Mike Talley in the 80s.  He saw the early makings of the Fab Five with Jalen Rose and CWebb taking the Class A and B titles in the early 90s.  Then Shane Battier came along and continued Country Day’s excellence.  This tradition has been passed on to me.  When I was 9 I went to my first state championship game at the Brez, and I haven’t missed a year since. I saw the 4 year rivalry of Lavell Blanchard and Jason Richardson came to a close when, as seniors, they met in the Class A championship (I think it was the last time Lavell ever beat JRich in a head to head game).  I have seen Lester Abram’s Pontiac Northern team destroy Kalamazoo Central, Copperayle “Manny” Harris single-handedly leading his Redford team against Draymond Green’s Saginaw team (at most points in the game Manny had 4 guys locked in on him).  Keith Appling and Nix on the Doughboy’s from Pershing were next to take the crown, and then Kzoo Central won back to back.  There have been numerous Mr. Basketballs, high level college players, and eventual NBA players over the years.  Although it is a lot of fun to see the high level players, it is also fun seeing high school kids winning a championship for an entire small town.  It is something they will always remember, and will instantly be part of folklore… like my grandpa back in 1954 (Gobles’ only basketball state championship). 

This year, even if the games weren’t as close, we still had a lot of fun.  Some of the news and notes from the long day of basketball:

In Class D, Southfield Christian has 3 senior guards that could continue playing basketball in college.  Toman, their point guard, was very smooth.  He was bigger than most Class D point guards which helped him on the defensive end.  He was probably their most solid all around player.  Lindsay Hunter III had one of the best jumpers that we saw all day long, it was pretty.  He also can explode off the floor and seemed very coachable.  The star of the game was Dewberry, who had a day high of 30 points. He barely missed anything he threw at the rim.  While his shot was not as pretty as LHIII, he was a better scorer.  He attacked the rim with ease most of the day, and also hit some crazy fade away threes.

In Class C, Monte “Man Man” Morris led BucTown to their first title in 25 years.  He was one of the best players that we saw all day.  It is not often that you see a high school player see the floor that well (and he is only a junior).  He set up teammates in great situations to get easy looks.  He ended up with 7 assists, but should have been 15 if the center made layups on the first chance or the guards took one less dribble. In hockey, he would have had close to 20. He constantly put his teammates in a place to succeed.  All the while, he scored 18 points (a very quiet 18).  He will definitely be playing D1 basketball after graduating.

In Class A, this was the most competitive game of the day.  Rockford was greatly overmatched, and quickly became the crowd favorite.  As they barely missed from 3 in the first half.  they hung in against a better Saginaw team because of good coaching and playing as a team.  In the end Richardson was just too much for Rockford to contain, and the all-state guard took over in the 4^th quarter. 

In Class B, one of the best teams in the nation took Stevensville-Lakeshore behind the woodshed.  The dominating performance tied the record for largest win (and they had their starters out most of the 4^th quarter).  It would have been really fun to see this Sexton team matched up against another top 10 team in the country.  They started 4 guards and an athletic 4.  4 players will be playing D1 basketball next season.  They are led by coaches son, and future Spartan, Denzel Valentine.  He has quickly become one of my favorite high school players that I have ever seen.  I have watched him 10+ times in the past 3 years, and it is incredible to see how much he improved since his sophomore year.  He is a 6’5” power point guard.  He has a hint of Draymond Green in him, where he is too good not to be on the floor and Izzo will make a position for him.  I think he is further along in his basketball ability than Draymond was at this point.  He might see the floor better than Monte did.  Valentine is the type of player that could have easily scored 30-40 points in the championship game, but he would rather set up his teammates.  He didn’t even lead his team in scoring this year.  He finished with 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists.  It was a full stat line.  I wish his dad didn’t play at MSU, because Valentine would have been an incredible pick up for Michigan.  By his sophomore year, I predict him to be near captain status… too bad it is for Sparty.

Class A & B Semifinal Preview

The first day of semifinal games is half over, so why not look forward to tomorrow’s matchups.

Class A

Rockford (21-5)vs Romulus (22-3)

Rockford is the other Cinderella story here in this year’s semifinals.  They were able to knock off multiple teams that upset high ranked teams (Grand Haven beat Petosky, Okemos beat Lansing Eastern).  Rockford will play tough defense and will want this game to be low scoring.  Romulus is far more talented, with 3 players on the roster who are getting Division 1 looks.  Romulus’ biggest problem is themselves.  They have been one of the most talented teams in the entire state for the past 3 years, yet in the past they have choked in the playoffs.  The young coach, Nate Oats, lets the team get away from him when they hit some adversity.  Rockford has a chance to frustrate Romulus, but in the end EC Matthews and company win relatively easy.

L’Anse Creuse North (22-4) vs Saginaw (24-2)

This is another game where there is a heavy favorite.  Saginaw has been the team to beat so far this year in Class A.  It is not a normal Saginaw team, where they have a Mr. Basketball candidate and a bunch of athletic players for support.  This team goes 8 deep and each one of them could step up to score 15 points.  If someone is having a bad shooting night, they will simply rotate another guy in who will be on.  They started slowly against OLSM, but brought one player off the bench and he took over.  He knocked down 3 triples in the 2^nd quarter  to blow open the game.  L’Anse Creuse has been the underdog for the past 3 games, and will be for the semifinal as well.  So far they have been able to overcome the odds and advance.  They haven’t ran into a team like Saginaw yet though.  I like Saginaw and first year coach to move on, especially after Draymond Green called into their practice yesterday. 

Class B

Lansing Sexton (25-1) vs Detroit Country Day (21-5)

This should be the best semifinal game out of all 8.  They are arguably the best 2 teams in the state right now.  DCD has won their playoff games by an average of 30 points.  Sexton is not much behind them.  They both have a variety of college bound talent.  Both teams like a higher paced game, so I expect this one to be played in the 70s.  I think Sexton just has too much depth for DCD.  This is becoming one of the better rivalries in the state over the past few years.  The winner of this matchup has claimed the title the last 2 seasons, and this will likely make it 3.

Muskegon Heights (20-6) vs Stevensville Lakeshore (23-2)

This is Heights time of year, it seems like every year they are at the Breslin in March.  They have rode an easy playoff schedule to this point.  Stevensville (like Heights) played above average competition throughout the regular season, but that has continued in their playoff run.  This game should be a very interesting matchup with the style differences of these two teams.  Heights wants to push the ball and score 80, while Stevensville does not have the athletes for that.  They play great team defense and want the game to be in the 50s.  it will be exciting to see which style wins out.  Usually defense will be able to control the tempo of the game, but the athletes from Heights might overwhelm S-L too much.  I have seen Heights play Sexton too many times, so I am pulling for Stevensville in this one, but this game is a tossup. I definitely think it will be close.

Class C & D Semifinal Predictions

 The NCAA tournament comes back tonight for the first 8 of the sweet 16.  But starting at 1 is the beginning of the 2012 high school basketball state finals at MSU.  Today’s games will be the 8 smaller schools playing for a chance at the title. 

Class C

Schoolcraft (22-4) vs Flint Beecher (26-0) 1pm

Schoolcraft is the defending champion in Class C.  They are in the semi-finals for the 3^rd time in the past 4 years.  The Eagles are led by Junior Luke Ryskamp.  He is a 6’3” wing player that leads the team in scoring, rebounds, steals, and blocked shots.  He was the star of last years finals trip and hasn’t been slowed much in this year’s playoff run even though he is battling a foot injury.  Schoolcraft was overmatched in last year’s semifinal game against Detroit Consortium, maybe even more than they are this year.  Yet, they still found a way to win.  The Eagles don’t have as much size as they usually do, but they have experience.  They will slow the tempo up on the Bucs and not allow them to get comfortable running.  On the other side, the Bucs are undefeated for the first time in 26 years.  They have been to the semifinals 4 times in the past 5 years.  Monte Morris is the repeat Class C player of the year and has been to the semis in his first three seasons.  He has never made the finals.  It seems like the #1 Bucs have been on a mission all season.  They have one goal in mind, and its not just to get back to the Breslin but to leave as champions.  I think Monte is just too much for Schoolcraft to handle today. The Eagles will keep it close with their grind it out style, but if the game gets into the 60s+ it favors the Bucs.  I just don’t think Beecher goes home empty handed this season.

Shelby (24-2) vs Traverse City St. Francis (24-2)

Both teams are rated in the top 10, and have been for most of the season.  Shelby starts 5 seniors that have been together since elementary school.  They don’t have any superstars, but are the definition of a team.  they have extremely good guard work.  I think Shelby would match up well with Beecher actually because a simple full court press will not rattle this team and Beecher is a little vertically challenged.  Traverse City however does not have that problem.  They are led by true center Sean Sheldon, a 6’9” William & Mary signee.  He has put TCSF on his back and willed them to the Breslin so far.  Shelby will likely have to double team when he gets the ball.  If they do, then the guards have to be ready to knock down shots. This game will feature a very exciting matchup at the point guard position.  Track star Devin Sheehy (TCSF) against Shelby’s best player DJ Beckman.  If Beckman cannot keep Sheehy in front of him, then Sheldon will likely get quite a few layups.  I have to give the advantage to TCSF in this game based on better players and a more experienced coach in March: Keith Haske.

Class D

Southfield Christian (22-2) vs Muskegon Catholic Central (17-9)

The football powers are still alive in these two small classes.  They are both led by big body tight end type players.  All-stater Jaso Ribecky of MCC is headed D1 in football, but he can still create a lot of mismatch problems for the guard heavy Southfield Christian team.  The Crusaders might be the hottest team in any class right now.  They came into the tournament at 11-9 and have knocked off two top 5 teams to get to East Lansing. Southfield Christian might be their toughest matchup though.  Usually west side teams have not seen the level of speed that SC can throw at them.  This team could have 4 guys 5’8” or shorter on the floor at one time today. They like to press, play aggressive man to man defense and score a lot of points.  They will have some problems if MCC takes care of the ball and try to lengthen their offensive possessions.  S-C has scored over 90 points 6 times this season.  I doubt they will get close to that today, but I have to give the edge to the better athletes and team in this situation.  I think S-C will eventually pull away at the end. 

Climax-Scotts (25-1) vs Carney-Nadeau (23-2)

This one should be a very interesting matchup.  Climax has a ton of size for a Class D team and Carney-Nadeau will follow the normal UP style (press, press, press, and shoot 3s).  If the shots are dropping for the yoopers it could be a long day for C-S.  Somehow I just don’t think their hot shooting will continue today.  it will be hard to replicate their 14 made 3s in the quarterfinal game.  C-S will use their two junior twin towers Malachi Satterlee and Aaron Cook to beat the press and pick up easy buckets.  Carney-Nadeau will likely need to call off the press at some point in the game.  I think Climax pulls this game out pretty easily.

Quarterfinal Predictions

As the greatest weekend in sports draws to a close, I get to look forward to next weekend and the High School Basketball State Finals.  That’s right people, its finals week here as each class in the MHSAA will have a champion by Saturday night.  It all begins with 16 Quarterfinal games tomorrow night.  Let’s get to the predictions.

Class A

Rockford vs Okemos

This game will be played at a familiar site for Okemos (Lansing Eastern) and I just don’t think the Rams are that good this season.  Okemos rolls on to the semis for the first time since Jonathan Jones took them to the finals in 2006.

Detroit Pershing vs Romulus

This is a matchup of 2 of the top 3 teams remaining in Class A.  Pershing is the more talented team, with the D1 back court and tougher tests up to this point.  But they have a tendency to come out flat and take some very bad shots, and they don’t have Keith Appling there anymore to score 49 for them.  Romulus is very talented themselves, but they have little to no discipline and I think you have to have some in this time of the year to advance.  I will go with Pershing in a close one.  The winner of this game should be playing in the Finals on Saturday. 

Orchard Lake SM vs Saginaw

The 23-2 Saginaw team vs the 14-10 average Catholic school league team.  If OLSM is within 10 something went very wrong for Saginaw.

Lake Orion vs L’Anse Creuse North

This game is tough to pick because they are both barely average.  Hopefully Saginaw can keep their run going so neither of these teams sniff the finals on Saturday.  I will go with L’Anse Creuse in this one because they have beat tougher competition so far in the tourney.

Class B

GR Christian vs Stevensville Lakeshore

This one should be a pretty competitive game tomorrow night.  Both teams have some very talented players, but SL plays in a tougher conference and is better defensively.  I will take them in a low scoring game.

Cadillac vs Muskegon Heights

Heights might not be as good as they have been in years past, but they are head and shoulders more athletic than their Cadillac counterparts.  They haven’t had a close game yet in the playoffs.  I think this one will be under 20, but the Tigers still move on to the Brez.

Goodrich vs Detroit Country Day

Country Day has been playing their best basketball over the past month of the season.  They are probably the 2^nd best team left in Class B.  They should roll over Goodrich to get back to the Breslin for the 3^rd year in a row. The problem here will be that they will run into the best team in the state regardless of class in the semi finals.

Lansing Sexton vs Dearborn Heights Robichaud

The real question here is that can Sexton keep winning by 40? Or, how soon does papa Valentine take out his son and the rest of the starters?  Sexton wins big.

Class C

Flint Beecher vs River Rouge

River Rouge lost some close games this year and also played some top notch talent in bigger classes.  Their record is not as impressive as Beecher’s.  Beecher has the best player in the class to go with the best overall team. Something tells me that Money Monte will not stop until he leads his team to the Class C championship.

Pewamo-Westphalia vs Schoolcraft

Schoolcraft is still the defending Class C champions, at least for another couple of days.  Pewamo-Westphalia is the 2^nd best Class C team remaining.  Luke Ryskamp will have to have a huge night to overcome Pewamo’s depth.  I think the Pirates are too much, and another champion will be crowned in this class. 

Negaunee vs Traverse City St. Francis

The UP teams are fun to root for in Class D, but they usually have no chance of competing in Class C.  I don’t the Miners are as good as in years past, and I really cant see them beating Coach Haskins and their 6’9” William & Mary commit tomorrow night.  The Crusaders move on to the semi finals in basketball… maybe they are more than just a football school.

Shelby vs New Haven

I picked against New Haven in the last game vs Nouvel, and I don’t think I should do it again.  Shelby has some talent, but I don’t think they have enough to match New Haven.  This should set up a very exciting semifinal matchup Thursday afternoon.

Class D

Bellaire vs Muskegon Catholic Central

Another standard football power is surprising people on the hardwood here as well (MCC and TCSF).  Fulton knocked off the Class D favorite (Tri-Unity) last Monday, then MCC turned around and knocked off the new favorite for the championship.  Does this make MCC the new favorite?  I doubt it.  1 loss Bellaire should move on.

Southfield Christian vs Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary

Will SC be a little rusty for not playing in over a week?  It is possible, but I think they are vastly more talented than SMLS.  Southfield has 4 all state guards, and I think the high pressure defense will get to the over matched SMLS.  Plus, I want to see 3 Lindsay Hunters on one team. J

Allen Park Inter-City Baptist vs Climax Scotts

C-S just won their first regional title in a long team, even though they are nearly undefeated every season.  This year they actually have some size and athleticism down low to win 3 games this week.  I am not sure if they can get to the finals, but I think they will be at least making the trek to the Brez on Thursday.

Carney-Nadeau vs Pellston

Pellston hasn’t been this far in quite some time, but Chris Haas has finally turned into a leader and not just a scorer.  I think he will lead his team into the semis on Thursday.  The 2 Class D semifinal matchups are looking very intriguing right now. 

Class D

Class D:

Fulton vs Muskegon Catholic Central

The Class D runner up last season, Fulton, just be the defending champion Wyoming Tri-Unity on Monday.  They become the new favorite with their physical defense.  I think Fulton gets another step closer to being number 1.

Bellaire vs Leland

Bellaire is better and has played better competition. Leland is just happy to be in the finals. Bellaire keeps going.

Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary vs Akron-Fairgrove

In the battle of long school names, SMLS is a top 5 team for most of the season.  They will get rid of A-F.

Detroit Westside Christian vs Southfield Christian

This might be the best Class D game tonight.  Westside Christian has been here before, but Southfield is led by the fighting Lindsay Hunters (Jr, III, and IV). They also have 2 other senior guards thatare tough to stop.  I think this one will be close, but I want to see SC make the finals, so I will pick them to advance.

Allen Park Inter-City Baptist vs Lansing Christian

Another tough matchup.  Lansing Christian has a great girls program, and the guys is starting to catch up slowly.  Allen Park is led by a sophomore that LC will probably struggle to stop.  Somehow though I think Lansing Christian gets the big W.

Climax-Scotts vs Marcellus Howardsville Christian

MHC was always a joke when I was in school, apparently they are less of one now.  C-S has two 6’6” and taller guys.  They are even getting some looks from D1.  This height will be tough to stop for most Class D teams, including HC.  Climax-Scotts moving on.

Munising vs Carney-Nadeau

Both teams are standard yooper teams.  Press and shoot 3s.  Don’t shoot well, keep flinging them up there. Carney-Nadeau was a game away from the semis last year, and I think they move on again this season.

Posen vs Pellston

Pellston has the Class D player of all time likely in Chris Haas.  He is the MHSAA active scoring leader, and if he wins a few more games he will likely break the record.  His teams have been pretty bad over the past 4 years, but this year they are primed to make it down to the Brez.  Lets just hope he can shoot the into the finals so more people can see how good this future Bucknell Bison is.  

Class C

Class C:

Detroit Consortium vs Flint Beecher

A matchup of the best two teams in the class.  Consortium has more talent and depth from top to bottom of its roster.  The run to the Brez will double the amount of Class C teams DC has played this season.  Flint Beecher has do everything junior PG Monte Morris, who has already led his Bucs to 2 straight semi-finals. One of these years he will break through and make the finals so more people can see this walking triple double. Tonight is not one of them.  Consortium has been on a mission this year after shooting 15% in the semi-finals and losing to a worse team. DC in a close one, but will be pulling for Money Monte.

River Rouge vs Ypsilanti Willow Run

Can River Rouge get back to their UCLA type dominance from back in the day? Well they have to replicate this year’s success over the next 15 or so. River Rouge moves a step closer to getting back to the final weekend.

Pewamo-Westphalia vs Albion

Albion has been a decent team for the past 15 years in Class C, occasionally making a deep run in the post season. They usually are very athletic, and have at least one 6’6”+ guy.  Pewama hasn’t lost yet this season.  They play in the best small school conference in the state that could produce 2 finalists again. I think PW gets by the more athletic Albion in a close one.

Schoolcraft vs Bloomingdale

The Eagles are the defending champions with double double machine Luke Ryskamp who nobody in Class C can stop.  Bloomingdale is Gobles’ arch enemy. Who do you think I got? Eagles roll.

Negaunee vs Iron Mountain

In a rematch game, I think the regular season winner is better and will win again.  The Negaunee Miners move closer to the Brez again… Tim Gould should be happy. J

Traverse City St. Francis vs Clare

This might be the 2^nd best game of the entire night, in a game where nobody has heard of either of these teams.  TCSF has a hall of fame coach that moved from Charlevoix down the road a few miles.  In just 3 years he has turned TCSF into a school that cares about basketball as much as football, and they are quickly becoming a power.  These two teams will have the best two post players in the entire tournament.  Both big bodies and 6’8” or taller.  I think coach Haske knows how to get to the Brez and will lead the Crusaders a step closer.

Saginaw Nouvel vs New Haven

Saginaw Nouvel got the benefit of the bracket this year by not having to go through Beecher until the finals.  They are a top 10 team with some size.  They will be too much for New Haven to handle as Bohnoff continues his postseason dominance.

Shelby vs Montague

Shelby has already smoked Montague twice this season.  As it is hard to beat a team three times, Montague will likely keep it a little closer.  But ultimately more talent will win.

Class B

Class B:

Grand Rapids Christian vs Godwin Heights

One of the multiple Class B toss ups.  Heights might be the more athletic team here, but I think GRC will find a way to move on.

Otsego vs Stevensville-Lakeshore

This one will depend on which Jared Klein (Western commit) shows up.  He can drop 40, or get locked down by Stevensville’s tough defense.  Stevensville has been tested a lot more than Otsego this season, so they are the favorites here.  But I hold a grudge from getting beat in baseball every summer by SL, and Otsego is a Gobles neighbor.  So this is my homer pick… Roll Bulldogs.

Sault St. Marie vs Cadillac

Cadillac plays much tougher competition than the yoopers.  SSM will have to heat up from 3 to win this game, or even hang with Cadillac. 

Sparta vs Muskegon Heights

Please. Heights home court seems to be the Brez in March.  It helps that their half of the bracket always seems to be the weakest. But that doesn’t stop them from hanging 80 on Sparta.

Goodrich vs Corunna

The basketball season has been good for Goodrich.  The girls team is one of the best in the state and headed to semi-finals this weekend, and the boys will have their shot of getting there next Tuesday in the QF after beating Corunna.

Detroit Country Day vs Harper Woods Chandler Park

Luckily these picks are not my job, because DCC is by far the better team in this matchup.  They have more size and a lot more depth (as usual from the school with the most McDonalds All-Americans ever).  But Harper Woods has Derick Walton (2013 U-M recruit).  He is capable of carrying this team anywhere.  While DCC has size, they are a little weak in their back court.  I am going with HWCP to pull the upset. Because of Walton, and because I cant stand to see their homely looking moron of a coach in the Brez again.

Dearborn Robichaud vs Detroit Douglass

Another PSL team in the regional finals.  It is hard to pick againt this conference this time of year.  Robichaud has 2 guys that can stop Douglass, but they have underperformed all season, why would they stop tonight. Douglass wins.

Lansing Sexton vs Marshall

Another please. Top 10 team in the country vs…  definition of average. Sexton wins easily, again.  

Regional Final Previews and Predictions: Class A

I cannot focus any longer on work, knowing that the High School Regional Finals are tonight and the NCAA tournament gets into full swing tomorrow at 12:15.  So I will take my stab at the Regional Final predictions for each game.

Class A:

Grand Haven vs Rockford

These two teams don’t like each other much, mainly because GH is constantly getting beat by the Rams in most sports.  Both teams had down years compared to their past few.  They are familiar with each other and are very similar.  I will just go with the usual Rockford to win (partly to upset my wife too J )

Okemos vs Ottawa Hills

Okemos had a down year, but they are in the toughest conference in the state.  They lost to Eastern twice this season, but beat them when it mattered most, last Friday in the District Finals.  They are led by all everything 6’6” senior Chris Harrison-Docks. I think they will keep their momentum going against a better team.

Detroit Pershing vs Detroit King

King is coming off of an emotional win on Monday, where Warren DLS students had a few spiteful chants after they were getting dominated.  They are led by future Wolverine footballer, Dennis Norfleet.  He might be having the best season of any senior since the beginning of February (convenient that its when he got his scholarship from Big Blue).  Pershing is a top 5 team in the state, and led by 3 D1 guards in the back court.  But the last time these teams met, King beat Pershing in the PSL championship game.  I think Pershing will eke out revenge tonight, but I would love to see Norfleet take his team to the Bres for the finals.

Romulus vs Gibralter Carlson

Ha, please.  Game over. Even though Romulus chokes in the post season every year since Ron Coleman led them to a semi-final appearance, I think they will advance at least one more game. Carlson is no match for the loaded Romulus roster. 

Detroit CC vs Orchard Lake SM

Two Catholic league schools meeting again, I think DCC will take care of business again with their size up front.

Saginaw vs Flint Northwestern

This was going to be a great matchup of Matt Costello (Bay City Western) against Saginaw for the last time, but they had to go out and get dominated by NW.  Flint NW has been flying under the radar all season, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see an upset… but Saginaw is too much at home.  They have been on a mission all season.

Lake Orion vs Waterford Mott

Mott is led by undersized post DaVonte Daniel which average teams cannot stop, I don’t think Lake Orion will be any different. Although they get to play this game at home.  I see Mott getting past this game.

Detroit Denby vs L’Anse Creuse North

Denby was not one of the best teams in the PSL this season, but it doesn’t mean they aren’t better than most teams in the state.  Denby moves on, and has a good shot at a semi final berth.

Preview: NCAA Tourney edition

So I am just going to move right past any analysis from the OSU game on Saturday.  Mainly because we got curb stomped by the Bucknuts, I hope the terribleness was a result of being tired from the night before, but OSU seemed to have the game plan perfect against us the 3^rd time around.  It resulted in a better team playing one of their most complete games of the season, it just was not fun to watch especially on national TV.  After the game I realized how hard it is to win the BTT.  Even if you get a first round bye, you have to play 3 games in 3 days against some of the best teams in the nation.  The first one will usually be against a desperate team that has to win the tourney to make the Big Dance, then you get 2 likely top 12 teams back to back.  And unlike the Maui tournament early this season, these games are against fellow B1G teams that play B1G style basketball: physical.  So now as Michigan fans we have to hope that we can continue our streak of not losing 2 games in a row. 

Onto the NCAA tournament preview.  The complete domination at the hands of Matta’s Meatheads likely dropped Michigan from the 3 line to a 4 seed.  At first this was disappointing, but after looking at our matchup I will not trade it with Georgetown.  The preview for the Ohio game is coming, but this is more for just a bracket overview.

Kentucky is the overall favorite to roll through the bracket and cut down the nets.  As much as I hate this idea, there is no team nearly as good as the Wildcats.  Syracuse will be without Fab Melo for the entire tournament, which makes them a candidate to get upset by Kansas St in the 2^nd round.  UNC had been playing well until Henson got hurt, and nobody knows really how serious it is or if he will come back at 100%.  Michigan St is a very solid team that I think could roll into New Orleans, but they are matched up against the toughest 8 seed in the entire bracket.  I think I would rather play Temple than Memphis at this point in the season.  I don’t think this is a year where all 1 seeds make the Final Four, but I could be wrong again.

I was surprised to see Detroit get a 15 seed, I was thinking more of a 13 or 14.  They might be the most talented 15 seed ever in the NCAA tournament.  They also have 1 more McDonald’s All-Americans on the roster than Kansas does.  It would be awesome to see a local team, led by a local player I watched since his junior year in high school have a good appearance in the NCAA tournament.  They got a tough draw with Kansas though, their height will be too much for the guard oriented Titans. I actually think Michigan would struggle a bit with Detroit this season because they are extremely athletic and seem to play better depending on the competition and brightness of the lights.  I am not picking this upset, but I will be rooting hard for it to happen.

Some of the upsets that I think are more likely:

1.       LBSU over New Mexico, it doesn’t seem fair that this is another 5-12 matchup of 2 mid major teams, both are good enough to make a Sweet 16 run.  I have watched LBSU a few times this season and have been very impressed.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see The Beach keep dancing.

2.       Cal over Temple, another 5-12 matchup.  Mainly because I think everyone is overlooking Cal and I just don’t think Temple is all that consistent. Doesn’t mean Temple cant win and then come back and beat Michigan by 20, but just my opinion of them.

3.       Montana over Wisconsin.  In this 4-13 matchup, it will depend on what Badger team shows up. If it is the one that dominated IU in the BTT then Wisconsin could make an Elite 8 run, if it is the one that showed up against MSU the next afternoon then they could have an early exit. 

4.       Belmont over Georgetown.  GU has lost to a double digit seed the past 3 seasons in the NCAA tournament.  I think this streak has a good chance of continuing with the high scoring Belmont. I think the tempo might cause the Hoyas some problems, since they struggle to score at times. 

5.       In the South regional, there are a few different games that could happen, but none that I expect.  VCU is playing their best basketball of the season, but get matched up against the best mid-major this year in Wichita St.  The Rams can pull off the upset with some good 3 point shooting, but the Shockers should have too much down low presence to allow this.  IU might struggle without Verdell Jones, but I think Zeller and Watford are just too good.  Xavier could upset Notre Dame (since Mike Brey is one of the top under-performing coaches in the NCAA tourney), but a 10 over a 7 isnt really an upset right?

I don’t really know of any “locks” to make a Final Four because anything can happen in the NCAA tournament, but I do have some bold predictions with teams that will not make the Final Four:

1.       Syracuse, without Fab Melo and their already lack of defensive rebounding, is primed to lose early.  Either to KSU or Vandy.

2.       Florida St, in the same bracket, everyone is so high on the Seminoles right now, but I just don’t like them. I have no reason for my prediction of them losing before the last 4, except that I would be surprised if they put 4 solid games together to make a run.

3.       Missouri, now this is one that I wouldn’t mind being wrong about, but I really don’t like their matchup against MSU.  They might be the only 1 seed in the tourney that I wouldn’t pick Mizzou to beat. They will have a very tough time locking up the paint against the Spartans.  Of course, if MSU loses early, I will be rooting for the Tigers to advance.. they also become the heavy favorites.

4.       Georgetown, now this isn’t really a crazy prediction since they are the 3 seed, but I just don’t think the Hoyas are that good. They struggle to score, and if an athletic team can get Sims into foul trouble they really struggle to score and defend the paint. I could see them losing in the first weekend.

5.       Finally, Duke.  For all of the talent that Coach K has had over the years, this year is not one of them.  They have big bodies that just fill up space.  They are completely guard oriented, and if they shoot 9-30 from 3 in a game they could go down early.  If a team can limit Austin River’s driving abilities, this team doesn’t know where to go to generate points. Xavier has a senior guard that could potentially lock Rivers down a bit, but if Duke advances to the 2^nd weekend I cant see them beating Baylor and then either IU, WSU, or Kentucky in one weekend.

These are just some of my thoughts as I look at my bracket, what about you?

OSU preview

As I watch MSU dominate Wisconsin yet again this season, I will give a quick update as we take on the Bucknuts for the 3rd time. 

OSU hasnt changed much since the last time we met in Ann Arbor, the main difference is we are playing on a neutral court.  This will be the rubber match for the season series, and it will also be the 3rd year in a row that we play in the BTT.  Michigan has hung tough the last two post season meetings even though they have been outmatched in both. 

OSU has 4 guys that got B1G recognition, Sullinger (1st team), Buford (2nd team), Thomas (2nd team), and Craft (the most ridiculous B1G defensive player of the year).  At least the pumpkin head coach didnt win COY. 

Offensively, OSU has one goal, get Sullinger the ball early and often and let him decide what to do.  In some instanes he forces way too many shots (MSU first game, and the first half of their 2nd meeting), but in others when his teammates are making shots, he feels very confident passing out of the double team to find open corner 3s.  Craft usually doesnt contribute much in terms of points but he facilitates the offense.  Buford has been as streaky as Hardaway lately, but when he is scoring he can take over the game. Sullinger is usually a high volume scorer that will inevitably take multiple bad shots.  Thomas is extremely athletic, and was the other reason they hung in the game in Ann Arbor. He also is a very streaky scorer and we will find out early if it is an on or off day.  Lenzelle Smith has entered the starting lineup, he dominated the Wolverines the first matchup. He is a great offensive rebound and finisher, but also a very streaky shooter. With the soft rims at Indy so far, it would be a good guess that at least 2 out of these 3 guys will have a good shooting night.  The key here is what it is in every other Michigan game, they can play the best defense possible for 35 seconds, but if they force teams into bad shots they have to be able to control the defensive glass.

Defensively OSU sticks to the man to man, they very rarely drop into a zone. They funnel everything into Sullinger where he defends the hoop.  Craft has been awful at stopping Burke in the first two matchups this season, so hopefully Burke takes it to the defensive player of the year again.  Buford will try to slow down Hardaway, but in reality Hardaway will only slow down himself.  If he is shooting the ball confidently, nobody on this team can stop him.  Smith will be matched up with Douglass.  He loses his assigment quite a bit which will allow Stu with some open looks from deep. Stu will have to have a good shooting night for Michigan to win.  Thomas will likely be assigned to Novak. This is one of these matchups where if Novak can keep the point differential to 10 points in favor of Thomas, Michigan will be in a good position to win. 

Michigan will use the pick and roll to get Burke attacking Sullinger.  Depending on the refs, this could get the cry baby in foul trouble or just make it very difficult for Trey.  Hopefully the rims continue to be forgiving in these games so Michigan can shoot close to 40% from behind the long line, and the Wolverines will have to knock down their opportunities from the foul line. Offensive rebounds will come at a premium, so any that Michigan can steal will need to be converted into points.

The bottom line is that OSU is more talented than Michigan, period.  The Wolverines will have to play a better game than yesterday to pull off their 2nd win against this legitimate top 10 team.  They will have to win the turnover battle, stay out of foul trouble, and limit offensive rebounds. A win today should secure Michigan as one of the top 3 seeds in the tournament.  I think the extra 5 minutes of game play yesterday will come back to hurt us as a primary jump shooting team, and OSU played very confidently against Purdue yesterday.  I think Michigan will hang close early, but will likely fade and allow OSU to go on a big run at some point.  I dont know if we will have enough energy to overcome it. Prediction: OSU 70 Michigan 61

Let's hope I am wrong and we win by 20. Go Blue!

Minnesota Recap

Well Michigan proved yesterday that they are capable of losing to anyone in the nation by coming out slow with no energy. Hopefully today they can correct some of the mistakes and prove that they can beat any team in the nation on a neutral floor.

The first half was one to quickly forget. Burke was the only player that seemed interested in playing.  Novak and Stu forgot the game started, Hardaway was not aggressive in asking for the ball, and Morgan of course doesnt get looked at down low. Luckily we were only down 3 to start the 2nd half. Couldnt play much worse, and yet only down 1 possession. Michigan's major struggles with rebounding continued and they gave up too many offensive rebounds to an average rebounding team. 

The second started with a decent run for the Maize and Blue, and they felt in control for most of the half. Maybe the team felt that as well, but they were never able to put the Gophers away.  Until at the end when Michigan trailed by 7 late in the game, Michigan knocked down a couple of huge 3s to put the game into OT. The game should have never gotten that far though, we missed 8 free throws, didnt rebound well, and missed some easy shots at the end of the game. Lucky for us, the team seems to play better the longer the game goes on. In OT shots started falling and eventually Michigan pulled out the win.

Burke had his best game of his young career with 30 points. He had a few amazing plays that Gus Johnson didnt notice.  One where he dribbled between his legs to inside the 3 point line, then spun away from Hollins to the baseline and then went right into their center, held in the air and put the ball off the glass into the hoop.  I guess the announcers were too busy raving over Hollins to notice.  Hardaway came out aggressively in the 2nd half and made a few tough shots in a row, we are a very difficult team to beat when he scored efficiently. Michigan only ended up shooting 15 threes yesterday, which is a huge improvement over 30. 

Defensively, Michigan gave up too many open looks again.  They need to shore up their man to man defense for today because Morgan will be forced to contain Sullinger again. Michigan will likely struggle getting into a 2-3 zone against the Buckeyes. From being a very tough defensive team for some stretches to being below average during others, Michigan has to get more consistent for entire halves and games like they were at differet times this season. 

It was a good win for Michigan to get back into the semifinals for the 2nd year in a row.  Hopefully the extra 5 minutes of play doesnt come back to hurt us today, but regardless today will be another exciting day of basketball!

Go Blue!