Must See Class A Districts

Class A has two teams that are the outright favorites to win a state championship (Romulus and Detroit Pershing), but the class is loaded with quality teams that could challenge the heavyweights.

Being a PSL team, Pershing will have a tough road just to get out of districts.  The Doughboys will have to play Martin Luther King in the district opener, then Detroit Western International, and then most likely Cass Tech.  While Pershing is better than any team in this group, playing 3 games in one week could wear them down and give Cass Tech a chance to avenge their earlier 20 point loss that gave the Doughboys the PSL title.

Rochester Adams has a chance to wrap up an undefeated regular season, and its reward will be to play in one of the toughest districts.  Adams will likely be matched up against Clarkston or Lake Orion for the district crown.  Clarkston has had a lot of playoff success in recent years, and will be a tough out for any team.  The winner of this group should be able to make the semi-finals.

The last district that I want to highlight involves one of the state’s biggest rivalries.  Saginaw Arthur Hill will likely meet up with Saginaw High in the district final for their grudge match. Each team has won a game against the other this season.  These two know each other so well, and will be playing to keep a deep playoff run alive.  Either team is talented enough to make the championship game, it is just a shame that they have to meet so early.

Must See Class B Districts

It looks like Class B is Detroit Country Day’s to lose, but there is a reason that you still play the games.   This also happens to be the class that has the best district grouping, so even if the champion is likely known Class B will still be a fun ride. 

The district in Berrien Springs will pair two of the top 5 teams in the opening round.  Dowagiac will face last year’s state runner up, Stevensville Lakeshore, on Monday night.  Lakeshore had every major contributor returning this year, and Dowagiac is led by Northern Illinois signee Dontel Highsmith.  It should be a very intriguing game because at 6’2” Highsmith is the Tiger’s tallest player, but Lakeshore has as good of size of anyone in Class B.  Stevensville plays at a slower tempo, while Dowagiac wants to get out in transition.  The winner of this game would then have to take on Benton Harbor.  While the winner will be favored in this game, it is a tougher matchup than most will have to face.  Whichever team makes it out of this district should be able to string together at least 3 more wins and make the semi-finals.

The other district to note also takes place on the west side.  Wayland Union will host 2 other teams that will be capable of advancing in the postseason.  Wyoming Godwin Heights is one of the top teams in the state, but they will be challenged by Grand Rapids South Christian and the home team.  The winner of this district should be able to advance to the Breslin to take on the winner from above.  

Must See Class C Districts

As we move up in classes you will start to see more teams worth keeping an eye on.  This year is no different.  Class C favorites include many well-known schools, but with a few new names sprinkled in. 

The first district of note will be played in Fennville.  The perennial power in Class B, Muskegon Heights, became a charter school last summer and has moved down to Class C.  The Tigers have played their usual difficult schedule, so their record might not be as impressive as other top teams in this class.  All I can say is don’t sleep on Heights.  They should matchup in the final against Saugatuck who is a solid team that has beaten up on a terrible conference.  The winner here could be poised to make a long run in this year’s playoffs.

The district played at Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian should be one of the more entertaining groups in Class C.  Grandville Calvin Christian is one of the favorites to make a Breslin run this year.  Calvin has been in this position many other years, but always has found a way to get knocked out early.  Will it happen this year when they should take on the home team in the District Final? NorthPointe Christian has a lot of underclassmen talent that has struggled throughout the season, but if they put it together in time for the post-season they could make it difficult on any Class C team coming out of the west side.

Finally, the district at Flint Beecher has three teams that would win most other Class C districts.  The home team is one of the best in the entire state, but it also includes Flint Hamady and Flint International Academy.  The winner of Hamady and International should square off against Beecher in the final.  Surprisingly, both team’s record is a bit inflated but they haven’t played each other yet.  The winner here should be a favorite to make at least a quarterfinal.

Must See Class D Districts

Thank goodness for the high school basketball postseason to take my mind off whatever that was last night (there is no way any Michigan player can convince me it was basketball).  If you are looking for the recap, it might take me a little while to complete because I am still sorting through my anger and confusion.  Anyways, the MHSAA basketball districts start next week, with the finals taking place March 23.  Each week I am going to highlight the upcoming round (districts, regionals, quarterfinals, semi-finals, and possibly even the finals).  This year it looks like most of the best games within each class will be taking place before anybody steps foot in the Breslin Center, so if you are in the area I would encourage you to check out some quality basketball.  Let’s start in Class D. 

The toughest district matchup will likely be played on Monday in a playoff opener.  Climax-Scotts will take on Mendon at Athens High School.  Currently, the defending Class D runner-ups have one loss this season, but it came at the hands of Mendon.  Climax will be looking for revenge in this game, and will try to use the distinct height advantage over the Hornets.  In the first matchup, the football power just out-toughed Climax and forced both 6’7” forwards to the perimeter all game.  The winner of this game should be looking to make a deep run in the tournament.

The second district that I would like to highlight is the one being played at Battle Creek St. Philip.  The potential district final would pair up the home team against Class D up-and-comer Kalamazoo Phoenix.  If you remember Muskegon West Michigan Christian, who won a state title three years in a row with Muskegon High leftovers, Phoenix is trying to replicate that success with Kalamazoo Public School players.  They are undersized, but will play at a level of intensity not usually found in high school basketball.  The winner of this regional will likely be rewarded against a Regional opener against the best team in Class D; congratulations.

Detroit Tiger Roster Openings

As Ann Arbor was hit with 4+ inches of snow and slush, and 650 local schools are closed, it made me think; baseball is almost here. The Tigers have one of the least tenuous Spring Trainings since the majority of the 25 man roster has been decided.  However, in my first post about the reigning AL Champion Detroit Tigers I would like to look at the current roster and try to make sense of the decisions to be made before opening the season in 33 days.   There are three positions that the staff will be trying to finalize before taking on the Twins on April 1^st: the 5^th starter, left field, and closer.

Detroit came into 2013 with 6 starting pitchers with experience in the major leagues.  We know that Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, and Sanchez have secured the first 4 spots.  The back end of the rotation now will come down to a battle between 24 year old veteran Rick Porcello and 23 year old youngster Drew Symly.  There are decent arguments to make on both sides.  With Porcello, the staff knows what to expect from the sinker ball pitcher, he will be a durable, definition of average starting pitcher that will get you 10-13 wins.  He has pitched with the Tigers longer than anyone not named JV and would likely make most MLB rotations as the 5^th starter.  The problems with Rick are well documented; he doesn’t have an out pitch.  Even though his strike-out rate increased last year, he will struggle to get over 5 Ks/9.  Porcello is also a ground ball pitcher, and in case you didn’t realize, the Tiger infielders are full of trees.  Drew Smyly, on the other hand, has a much larger upside.  He would give Detroit a much needed left handed starter, and during his stint with the big club last season Smyly showed an encouraging strike out rate.  There are still the questions about his health; will he be able to stay off the DL all season?  I really like Smyly’s ceiling and the fact that he is a southpaw, but if Porcello remains a Tiger it will be hard to take him out of the rotation.  Personally, I think Porcello will be on the opening day roster as the 5^th starter while Smyly will be moved to AAA to get some consistent work as a starting pitcher.  But, I also think that the sinker-baller will be on the trading block all season and will be moved before the trade deadline.

From all reports that I have read it seems that left field is a wide open race right now between Andy Dirks, Quentin Berry, Brennan Boesch, Jeff Kobernus, Nick Castellanos, and Avisail Garcia.  It looks like the position will be platooned all year.  This should eliminate Castellanos and Garcia to allow them to continue to develop by playing every day in the minors.  This will leave 3 left and 1 right handed hitter.  I think Andy Dirks is guaranteed a spot, but the Detroit staff does not believe that he can stay healthy for a full season.  So, the race for two spots will come down to Berry, Boesch, and Kobernus.  With Boesch currently out with an oblique injury, it would seem that he is trailing the other two players.  At 27 years old I think we know what Berry can bring to a baseball team, he is a below average fielder with great speed to cover up some of those mistakes.  Quentin’s most appealing characteristics are his ability to play every outfield position, sacrifice bunting, and being the best base stealer on the team.  Jeff Kobernus is a special situation.  The 24 year old does not have any experience over AA ball, but he is a Rule 5 player.  This means that if he is not kept on Detroit’s 25 man roster all season he will be sent back to his original team (Washington).  The problem is that Detroit seems to really like Kobernus as Infante’s replacement at 2^nd base, so they might have to find a some place on the Tigers for him.  Kobernus brings a lot of speed, which the Tigers desperately needed at times last year.  He also is more of a utility player and can fill in at 2^nd or shortstop.  Now the only question is if he can hit, so the 24 year old will be seeing a lot of spring training plate appearances.  I think Dirks will be the opening day starter with Berry and Kobernus both making the 25 man roster. 

After Jose Valverde’s horrible postseason last year the Tigers were forced to not pick up the club option.  Instead of over-spending in free agency on a known closer, the management wants to roll with Bruce Rondon.  At this point in the season, the job is Rondon’s to lose.  He will likely be given until the end of April to prove whether he is ready for the big leagues yet.  Rondon has a blazing fast ball that can hit triple digits, but at this point is generally considered a one pitch pitcher.  He also struggles with location and has a tendency to walk too many hitters.  Giving people free bases in the 9^th inning is a recipe for disaster; one that we have seen get past Tiger closers in trouble.  If he is able to calm down and locate better there is a good chance that Rondon will be successful anchoring Detroit’s bullpen.  If he falls back into old habits and his walk rate stays around 4.5/9IP then he will likely be a mainstay in Toledo for another season.  If the Tigers have to move away from Rondon, the next likely choice will be Joaquim Benoit.  Detroit has 3 pitchers with past closing experience or could choose to try out the electric arms of Villareal or Alburquerque.  I think Rondon will start as the closer, but it will be a work in progress throughout the season and could cause some headaches for fans.

B1G Update

The Big Ten continues to wear down even the best teams.  Michigan State was playing like one of the best teams in the entire country, but went 0-2 last week.  The bad news for Spartan fans is that the games against Indiana and Ohio State were only the first two of their grueling 4 game stretch.  The Indiana win in East Lansing will likely be seen as the best victory from any conference team this season.  The Hoosiers now have a 2 game lead in the loss column with only 4 games remaining.  Michigan got back on track with a comfortable win over streaking Illinois, and with the other top 10 losses last week the Wolverines kept their small hopes alive for a number 1 seed.  Minnesota and Northwestern are going the other direction, and in a hurry.  The Golden Gophers still are extremely talented, but will need to win a few more games to be an NCAA tournament lock. 

1.       Indiana (no change)

The Hoosiers only had one game last week, and it was a big one.  They went into the Breslin and won for the first time since most of their players were even born.  While some people can say Michigan State blew the game down the stretch, Indiana’s experience came through and pulled out the toughest win of the season.  Indiana could play two trap games this week with a trip to Minnesota and hosting Iowa.  While the Gophers are still a likely tournament team, a win over the number one team in the nation would make them a lock.  Then with the Hawkeyes losing to Nebraska over the weekend, they are on the wrong side of the bubble and need a signature win to be in the conversation again.  I expect the Hoosiers to be focused and win both games, but Illinois was a team heading in the wrong direction but mustered a huge comeback to take down Indiana on their home floor.  All I am saying is that stranger things have happened.

2.       Michigan State (no change)

I am keeping the Spartans in the number 2 slot this week. I know they had a tough week going 0-2, but it was a similar stretch that Michigan just went through and we all saw how that went.  Michigan State is still a very good team, and having a week off before heading to the Crisler Center will be huge.  Tom Izzo does some of his best work when he has a reason to get after his team.  Even if the Spartans finish 4^th or 5^th in the Big Ten, they will still be on my short list for Final Four favorites.

3.       Michigan (no change)

The Wolverines finally were able to get a week off to get back to fundamentals and get some rest.  The freshmen definitely looked more energetic and fresh, which is bad news for opposing teams.  It will be important for Jordan Morgan to continue to get back to 100%.  The Wolverines head to Happy Valley to look to build upon their 8 point win over the Nittany Lions last week.  Then next weekend Michigan welcomes the Spartans back home for the grudge match after they were embarrassed in East Lansing a few weeks ago.  With another strong week Michigan has a chance to move up the rankings and even still have an outside shot at sharing the regular season title.  

4.       Wisconsin (no change)

The Badgers still play ugly basketball, and they still have the easiest remaining schedule of any top 5 team.  If you can’t tell I am still upset over their prayer victory over Michigan, and I don’t respect this team away from the Kohl Center.  Wisconsin should roll to two more wins this week as they make their rounds of the B1G cellar.  Michigan will need to avoid a tie with the Badgers since they would own the tie breaker and move the Wolverines down in the standings further for the B1G tournament.

5.       Ohio State (no change)

The Buckeyes are close to be moving back into the 4^th position with big home wins over Minnesota and Michigan State.  The Buckeyes got a huge lift from Aaron Craft on the offensive end, and if it can continue Ohio State could make some noise when they travel to Bloomington or in the conference tournament.

6.       Illinois (no change)

The Illini were one of the conference’s hottest teams heading into Ann Arbor on Sunday, and it looked like their good fortune was going to continue after the first half.  Instead they were out-toughed by a Wolverines squad that has been criticized as being soft.  The good thing for Illinois is that they have a favorable week coming up which should help them continue to move up the bracket.  They could be playing for a 6 seed, which seems crazy when they started 2-7 in the conference.

7.       Minnesota (up 1)

The Gophers are still on the decline, especially after back to back blowout road losses to Iowa and Ohio State.  If the Gophers have any mental toughness and pride they will need a strong showing at home tonight against the Hoosiers.  If they fold early again and lose by 20+ they could be on the outside looking in come selection Sunday.  Minnesota is just too talented to be slumping like this, and I personally think Tubby Smith’s seat could be a little warm if he cannot turn this team around in the next 3 weeks. 

8.       Iowa (down 1)

I know the Hawkeyes just punched Minnesota in the mouth a week ago, but then they bounced back with a deflating loss to Nebraska.  It was a loss that most likely sealed their fate of becoming an NCAA tournament team in 2013.  Iowa still does have resume booster games with Indiana and Illinois, and they will likely need to win both to even be in contention for a bid. 

9.       Purdue (no change)

Purdue is still hanging at 9^th in the Big Ten.  They aren’t bad enough to move down, but can’t put together a consistent 40 minutes to pass Iowa.  The Boilermakers picked up a huge win over the depleted Wildcats.  Purdue will travel to Iowa and Wisconsin where they could look to pick up one win, for Michigan fans let’s hope its against the Badgers.  

10.   Nebraska (up 1)

The Cornhuskers move up because of their surprising win over Iowa and because Northwestern is likely the worst conference team at the moment.  Nebraska plays Wisconsin and Illinois this week, so it looks like two more losses for the Huskers.  

11.   Northwestern (down 1)

The Wildcats are terrible right now and are limping to the finish line.  If they aren’t careful Northwestern will be the best chance for Penn State to pick up a conference win.

12.   Penn State (no change)

I can continue to say the same thing about the Nittany Lions; they play hard and are getting closer to picking up their first conference win.  Lets just hope it isn’t tomorrow night against Michigan.

Illinois Recap

I was lucky enough to join the Maize Rage for Sunday’s game against Illinois, and it was quite an experience.  I just remember back when I had student tickets and couldn’t get friends to come with me for the free games, and now you have to show up early and wait in line if you want to be in the lower level at all.  Michigan started the game looking like a team that just had a week off.  Look back to the Purdue game and the Wolverines started the same way.  Once the halftime buzzer rang, the Michigan coaching staff made all the needed halftime adjustments and the maize and blue cruised to a 13 point win. 

The first thing that I took away from the game is that the young players looked fresh again.  Glenn Robinson III had a spring in his jump again and actually attacked the basket off the dribble a few times.  He is still hesitant on taking jump shots, especially after air balling his first attempt.  It will be important for him to continue to stretch the floor from the power forward position.  Spike Albrecht impressed in his limited time on the floor, but I was the most impressed with Caris LeVert’s intensity on the defensive end of the floor.  He was assigned to Brandon Paul during his playing time and his length really limited Paul’s impact.  Caris was able to get into passing lanes, deflect balls, create turnovers that led to easy baskets, and he also knocked down open shots.  This was his best overall game of the season, but if Michigan can begin to expect this output from the bench they will be very tough to beat.  While Jordan Morgan was clearly not 100% yet he is looking closer to himself.  He showed why he is by far the best ball screen defender on the team, as he understands when to hedge and when to rotate.  Michigan outscored Illinois by 28 points in Morgan’s 17 minutes, but more importantly when number 52 came off the bench in both halves he was key to stopping an Illini run. 

The defensive performance was still struggling in the first 12 minutes of the game, but then the Wolverines looked as good as they have in 3 weeks. Like I mentioned earlier, Jordan Morgan had a big hand in the defensive turnaround but I was even more impressed with the defensive rotations.  In the final 28 minutes of the game Illinois really struggled to get any dribble penetration, which has been the biggest struggle for Michigan lately.  Illinois collected 6 offensive rebounds in the first 12 minutes, but once the rotating improved to cut off any penetration, the Illini were held to two offensive rebounds for the rest of the game (none in the last 20 minutes). By keeping ball handlers out of the paint it allows Michigan’s post players to stay with their man, which ultimately leads to a clean box out and defensive rebound. I will be interesting to see how the defensive performance improves against Penn State, since they shredded Michigan for 71 points just a few days ago.  Most of their damage was done by dribble penetration.

Offensively, Michigan executed extremely well in transition which was started by long rebounds or turnovers.  Trey Burke and GRIII ran the break flawlessly.  Keeping the Wolverines out of transition is the key to slowing down their efficient offense, but how many teams in the entire country can really do that?  The bad news is that 3 of them are in this conference (Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin).  The Michigan offense struggled at times in the half court sets, and had to settle for too many long jump shots.  The post presence is still not an effective part of the offense yet, which will need to improve a little before the NCAA tournament.  I am not saying that Morgan, McGary, Horford, and Biefeldt have to combine for 25 points and 20 rebounds a game, but they should be getting to double digits in both between them.  Luckily for Michigan they have Trey Burke running the offense, and Illinois could not keep him out of the lane.  At times it looked like Burke was toying with the defense, which led to 26 points, 8 assists, and just one turnover.  Just another day at the office for my pick for Player of the Year.

Looking ahead Michigan travels to Happy Valley to take on the winless Nittany Lions.  Penn State kept the game closer than expected last week in Ann Arbor, so the Wolverines should not be overlooking their opponent.  I will be looking to see how much the defense has improved since their last meeting because Penn State guards should not be getting into the lane at will, nor should Penn State post players accumulate uncontested layups. I also want to see the half-court offense improve, which will happen if Tim Hardaway Jr can find his shot again and the post players can get some points in the pick and roll game.

2013 Oscars

Yes, this is quite the drastic change in blog post for me from sports 24/7 to Hollywood's biggest night.  However, I connect emotionally through different films, and if I spent less time watching sports it would likely translate into an even larger movie addiction.  I am not going to spend any time analyzing the different black tuxedos or the dresses that cost as much as my yearly salary, but I just wanted to recap the choices from last night's awards show. 

Overall I thought this was one of the deepest movie seasons in recent memory.  There were multiple films that could have won big in past years.  While I have not seen all of the nominated movies, I have seen a few and was incredibly impressed with all that I was able to view.  I still plan to complete the adventure to view each Best Picture nomination.  I will leave out Amour, because while it is probably very good, I don't feel like reading subtitles or watching 2 hours of a silent picture. 

The choice that I was the most surprised about was Ang Lee winning Best Director for Life of Pi.  This is one of the movies that I have not yet had a chance to watch, so I will refrain from bashing the selection at this time.  Instead I was hoping for David O. Russell to take home the prize for Silver Linings Playbook.  The movie is incredibly emotional, vulnerable, and raw, and I thought the director did a great job of capturing the cast in the moment.  However, he could have been down voted because of the talented cast in the film.  Silver Linings Playbook was the only movie to have a nominee in each of the four major acting categories (Actor/Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress).  I thought that some of the success would fall back on the director?  Of course this category should have been won by Ben Affleck for Argo, but he wasn't even a nominee this year.  Does Leo and Christopher Nolan have some company?

The acting categories were absolutely loaded this year.  I felt that each nominee had an argument to win.  It was going to be tough to beat Christoph Waltz in the Supporting Actor group since director Quentin Tarantino wrote the part with Waltz in mind.  I don't think people would have been too upset if any of the other candidates (Allen Arkin, Robert De Niro, Tommy Lee Jones, and Philip Seymour Hoffman) would have taken home the statue.  The Supporting Actress seemed to be a foregone conclusion with Anne Hathaway taking home the award for her role as Fantine in Les Mis, but just like the previous category it was filled with past Oscar winners.  Isn't weird to think that just a few years ago Hathaway was the rabbling, ditzy host and now she pulled off two completely different, but powerful, roles in one movie season with fierce Catwoman and broken Fantine.  I think that is pretty incredible.  Best Actress had a wide age range this year (9-86), and then 3 still up and coming actresses.  I thought this race came down to Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook).  I think I would have leaned towards giving the award to Chastain over Lawrence, but both were superb in their roles.  The reason why I would have given the nod to Jessica Chastain was because she alone made Zero Dark Thirty a must-see, gripping, thrill ride.  Like I mentioned earlier, Silver Linings Playbook was full of powerful performances.  This award was like picking a 1A vs 1B, both actresses definitely deserved any award they received. Finally, the Best Actor might have been the deepest race in Oscar history.  I could have realistically seen 4 of the 5 nominees taken the award home, and the one on the outside would have been one of the best current actors (Denzel Washington). Nobody would have done better in their roles than the 4 remaining men.  While Anne Hathaway was great in Les Mis, she only had 20 minutes of movie time, but Hugh Jackman's strong performance gave the musical an outside chance at Best Picture.  Bradley Cooper came out of nowhere to have his best performance of his acting career in Silver Linings Playbook.  Then the remaining two, Daniel Day Lewis and Joaquin Phoenix, are two of the most selective and devoted actors in Hollywood right now.  The difference is that Daniel Day Lewis is one of the best ever at becoming his characters.  He tranformed Abraham Lincoln into a living president with his role and would not be denied his 3rd Best Actor Academy Award.  Since I am also a huge fan of both Jackman and Cooper, I can just hope that they can make it back to the short list of nominees.  If they do it will be a treat for me.

The last award of the night always goes to Best Picture, and this year there were 9 nominees. I assumed the early favorites were Les Miserables and Lincoln, but then Argo started winning at every award show.  In past years, 6 of these films could have taken home this award.  I think Zero Dark Thirty was easily won of the best movies of the year, but the controversial topic likely kept the Academy for choosing it.  Silver Linings Playbook might have lacked substance compared to the other nominees, but clearly made up for it with the best overall acted movie of the 9.  Argo was one of the most entertaining movies I have seen in theaters, and in the end it seemed like the snub of Affleck from the Best Director gave Argo some momentum in Best Picture.  I don't know how you choose between Argo, Lincoln, Les Mis, Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook, and Django Unchained.  If you have the time I suggest you at least check out these 6 movies, and I would bet you wouldn't be disappointed.

Michigan Basketball Expectations

After the past 5 games, I assume most Michigan fans feel like Cody Zeller above (punched below the belt by Derrick Nix).  Heading into the showdown with Indiana on February 2nd most people thought the Wolverines were the best team in the nation, but in just a few weeks most people now think Michigan will struggle to get to the Sweet 16.  Why the sudden loss of confidence?

The primary answer is easy, the Wolverines could only manage 1 win in their toughest 4 game stretch of the season, and that one victory was at home.  Then, in their latest outing, the worst team in the B1G hung around all game on Michigan's home floor.  Two of the losses in this stretch were very emotionally charged.  It looked like the Wolverines finally eked out a win in the Kohl Center when Wisconsin hit a 40 foot running jump shot as the game expired, and the maize and blue eventually fell in overtime.  Then Michigan traveled to East Lansing where they were embarassed by our biggest basketball rival.  The regular season conference title now is likely out of reach, but even the small hope to be co-champions again can only happen if Michigan wins their last 5 games which includes games against Michigan State and Indiana. 

I personally think this team is somewhere between the high expectations on February 2nd and the pessimistic early NCAA tourney exit.  I do not believe that this Michigan team is a legitimate national championship contender at this point, but I do think an Elite Eight or Final Four run is not unlikely.  Still, if Michigan gets healthy and plays up to their capability they are one of the most talented teams in the country, but recently we have also seen how the grind of the nation's toughest conference can wear a team down. 

I am very interested to see how Michigan responds this Sunday against surging Illinois.  The young Wolverines will have had a much needed week off, Jordan Morgan should be close to 100% healthy, and the coaching staff should have been able to focus on some defensive fundamentals that were lacking the past 2 games.  The Wolverines could come out a little rusty like they did after their last week off, but I expect the overall game to be much improved.  My expectations will continue to slide if the effort looks more like the Penn State game instead of any other conference home game thus far. 

There are still three milestones left in the season: March 10th (end of the regular season), March 17th (end of B1G tourney), April 8th (end of NCAA tournament). With Indiana's win at Michigan State on Tuesday, I think the regular season title is now out of reach, but it will be important for the Wolverines to get a favorable seed to at least get to the semi-final.  Personally, I would like to see Michigan keep their first day bye and stay out of the 4 vs 5 game.  Depending on how the regular season finishes up, the conference champion should be slotted as the top number 1 seed, which should leave the other 2 top flight teams a chance to steal the final top seed with a B1G tournament championship.  Finally, a lot of the success in the NCAA tournament will depend on the seeding and matchups.  Michigan should play their first two games close to home, which at the very least, should propel them to the second weekend.  Also, like I mentioned earlier, the Wolverines talent level is on par with any top 5 team, so making a run of 6 straight wins at the end of March is still not out of the realm of possibilities. 

After these disappointing 2 weeks, what are your new expectations for this basketball team?

Another case for the number 1 seeds....

The NCAA will try to put the top teams in the closest regional possible, which could leave the last one seed at a significant disadvantage.

The four regionals this season are:

East: Washington DC

Midwest: Indianapolis

South: Arlington

West: Los Angeles

The eleven teams that can play themselves into a one seed are (in order):

Indiana 23-3
Miami 21-3
Florida 21-3
Michigan State 22-4
Gonzaga 25-2
Michigan 22-4

Duke 22-3
Syracuse 21-4

Kansas 21-4

Louisville 21-5
Georgetown 19-4

Indiana

Losses: Butler, Wisconsin, @ Illinois

Quality Wins: Georgetown, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, @ Ohio State

Indiana is back on top after the last bracketology post.  Their loss at Illinois is looking better as the Illini have not lost since then.  Also, it helps that the Hoosiers have destroyed all of their competition since that loss.  They have two 20+ point wins against the bottom of the B1G, and a double digit dominant performance in Columbus.  The Hoosiers still have their two toughest games of the season coming up (@ Michigan State and @ Michigan).  

Miami

Losses: @ Florida Gulf Coast University, Arizona, Indiana State

Quality Wins: Michigan State, Duke, @ NC State

After barely including the Hurricanes in my first post, they have sky-rocketed to a near lock for a number one seed.  They have yet to lose in conference, and since the ACC is down this year it seems unlikely that they will lose again.   Miami does still have to travel to Duke still, but it is likely the 'Canes would need more than 1 loss to bump them from a one seed.

Florida

Losses: @ Arizona, Kansas State, @ Arkansas

Quality Wins: Wisconsin, Missouri, Ole Miss

Not much has changed with the Gators since the last post.  Teams around them keep losing, and Florida continues to beat up terrible teams.  Like Miami, I think the Gators are pretty close to locking up a top spot.  It will be interesting to see which regional both Florida teams will be assigned to.

Michigan State

Losses: Connecticut, @ Miami, @ Minnesota, @ Indiana

Quality Wins: Kansas, Ohio State, @ Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan

The Spartans took advantage of their opportunities with a dominating win over Michigan last week.  I personally think Indiana and Michigan State are playing some of the best basketball in the entire nation right now.  Since the B1G teams will continue to beat each other up, it seems unlikely for the conference to get 2 top seeds, but at this time I think both deserve it.  Like mentioned last time, the Spartans have a lot of tough games coming up, and if they get through them unscathed this will be the team on the top of the charts.

Gonzaga

Losses: Illinois, @ Butler

Quality Wins: Kansas State, @ Oklahoma State

Gonzaga continues to hang back in their mid-major conference and watch all of the big boys fight.  I doubt the Zags will lose another game this season, and since there are two B1G teams ahead of them right now it seems very likely that Gonzaga could grab the final number one seed, which would probably be the West regional. 

Michigan

Losses: @ Ohio State, @ Indiana, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State

Quality Wins: Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, @ Minnesota, @ Illinois, Ohio State

Since the first post, the Wolverines have sputtered and lost 2 of 3 games.  While they are not technically out of the running for a number one seed, they have a lot of ground to make up.  None of Michigan's 4 losses are bad, and each of those teams should make the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tournament.  However, these 4 teams exposed some of the Wolverine's weaknesses, so it will be interesting to see how the young team bounces back.
 

Duke

Losses: @ NC State and @ Miami, @ Maryland

Quality Wins: Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU, Louisville, Ohio State, NC State

Duke continues to struggle without Ryan Kelly, and it is looking more and more likely that they will not have him in time for the ACC tournament.  Even if Duke finds a way to win out, I don't think they should be placed on the 1 line because of the significance of the injury.

Syracuse

Losses: Temple, @ Villanova, @ Pittsburgh, @ Connecticut

Quality Wins: San Diego State, Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame

The Big East has an outside chance of getting one top seed, and right now the Orange are at the top of that list.  Syracuse cannot afford more than 2 more losses to be considered for a one seed though.  If it comes down to a discussion of the top Big East team vs Gonzaga, you would have to imagine the Big East holds the advantage.

 

Kansas

Losses: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, @ TCU, @ Oklahoma

Quality Wins: @ Ohio State, @ Kansas State, Kansas State

Kansas dropped three in a row, but they have bounced back with blowout wins over Kansas State and Texas.  The Jayhawks still have to travel to Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Baylor.  If Kansas can win out, it will be difficult to keep them from a top seed.  With how bad they played in that 3 game stretch, I think it is likely Kansas will drop one of those road games and possibly another in the conference tournament.

Louisville

Losses: Duke, @ Syracuse, @ Villanova, @ Georgetown, @ Notre Dame

Quality Wins: Missouri, @ Memphis, Kentucky, Pittsburgh

Louisville is a confusing team.  They have a ton of talent, and when it is clicking this team is one of the best in basketball.  Too often this season that has not been the case.  Russ Smith can play for the other team just as much as benefit the Cardinals.  I think Rick Pitino's squad will end up on the 3 or 4 line come selection Sunday, but they do have a chance to play up for a 1 or 2 seed.  Louisville has games coming up against Syracuse, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame.

Georgetown
Losses: Indiana, @ Marquette, Pittsburgh, @ USF
Quality Wins: @ Notre Dame, Marquette, @ Cincinnati
The Hoyas are definitely a very long shot right now for a top seed, but they are the hottest team in the Big East.  If they can continue on their winning streak with games at Syracuse and Connecticut coming up they will be sitting in the top 10 with the Big East tournament still to play.  I think it is more likely Georgetown ends up on the 4 line however. 

I dropped Arizona from the potential one seeds and replaced them with long shot Georgetown.  The Wildcats keep losing in one of the worst Pac-12's in memory, and they just are not a mentally tough team right now.  The Big Ten is guaranteed at least one number one seed, with the potential for a 2nd depending on when the losses come.  Florida and Miami seemed to have wrapped up a top spot, but now are competing with each other to see which regional they head to.  If the B1G is limited to just one team, then the next in line would be Gonzaga and Duke if both teams can win the rest of their games.

My four number one seeds are:

Midwest: Indiana

East: Florida

South: Miami

West: Michigan State

B1G Update

If you weren’t sure how difficult this conference is, then check out this week’s KenPom rakings.  There are 8 B1G teams in the top 29, and all 8 have a very real shot at winning 20 games before the conference tournament.  After watching a lot of college basketball over the weekend I think Michigan cruises to a regular season conference title in any other in America.  Duke lost at Maryland Saturday evening, and Coach K mentioned their fatigue after an ACC “brutal” four game stretch.  It consisted of: NC State at home, Boston College on the road, North Carolina at home, and Maryland on the road.  In case you were wondering, none of those teams are even ranked right now and Duke should have gone 1-3 in that stretch.   Duke lost to a bubble team that turned the ball over 26 times, and should have lost 2 others.  As an upper classmen laden team, the Blue Devils struggled in that stretch.  Now, throw in that Michigan plays 6 freshmen, competes in the most physically demanding conference, and just played 4 straight ranked teams (3 on the road).  Hopefully the Wolverines will just be able to recover in time for the NCAA tournament.

1.       Indiana (no change)

Indiana cruised to another dominating week with blowout wins over Nebraska and Purdue.  The Hoosiers seem to have gotten their confidence back from their loss at Illinois.  This week is the showdown in East Lansing.  The regular season title will be all but wrapped up if Indiana wins tomorrow night. 

2.       Michigan State (no change)

The Spartans dominated Michigan on their home floor last week, and then won a lackluster game against Nebraska.  Michigan State is playing some of the best basketball in the country right now.  This week begins their gauntlet of games with matchups against Indiana and at Ohio State.  The Spartans will need to at least win Tuesday night to keep pace in the conference race. 

3.       Michigan (no change)

Michigan got blitzed by Michigan State and recorded a win over inept Penn State. The Wolverines will have to use their time off to improve on the defensive end if they want to compete for a league championship.  Right now the only thing Michigan has going for them is that Trey Burke still is the point guard.

4.       Wisconsin (up 1)

I said if Wisconsin went 2-0 for another week I would have to move them up a spot in the rankings.  They went 1-1, with an overtime loss against Minnesota and a 21 point win against Ohio State.  With their dominating game yesterday it is hard to keep the Buckeyes above them.  The Badgers have the easiest road remaining in the regular season, so it is looking like Bo Ryan will keep the streak alive of finishing in the top 4.  It is crazy to think this team was on the bubble heading into conference season. 

5.       Ohio State (down 1)

The Buckeyes continue to struggle on the offensive end of the floor.  That being coupled with playing in the Kohl Center exploited Ohio State.  If this team is making shots, like they did in Ann Arbor two weeks ago, they are clearly a top 10 team.  When they don’t, they are capable of losing by 20+ (see Illinois and Wisconsin).  This week they have two big matchups with Minnesota and Michigan State.  While they are likely out of the regular season championship race they can still cause some havoc with games against the Spartans and Hoosiers remaining.

6.       Illinois (no change)

Illinois is one of the hottest teams in the conference right now, and after their buzzer beating win over Indiana they have yet to lose.  The Illini are solidly off the bubble for the time being.  Illinois has games against Penn State and Michigan this week, so continuing that winning streak might be difficult but if it happens they could move up into the top 25 polls again.

7.       Iowa (up 1)

Iowa finally found the easy part of their schedule.  After losing many close games that they should have won (Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin), the Hawkeyes were rewarded with a close win against Penn State and a blowout win over Minnesota.  Iowa has 4 very winnable games remaining and also have to travel to Bloomington.  It is very likely that this team end up with 9 or 10 conference wins and puts themselves back in the bubble picture.  I would have to guess that a 10 win team from the Big Ten is a lock to make the tournament.

8.       Minnesota (down 1)

The Gophers are back to struggling again. They eked out an ugly win against Wisconsin and then got pummeled by Iowa over the weekend.  Minnesota doesn’t have time to rest though, as they head to Columbus to face an angry Buckeye team.  This team continues to fall towards the bubble, but if they make the tournament as a 6-9 seed I don’t think there is a top 3 seed that would want to see these guys in the opening weekend.

9.       Purdue (no change)

Purdue was embarrassed again by rival Indiana, and also blown out by Illinois.  The Boilers continue to lack offensive playmakers, and lately have really struggled defending the low post. 

10.   Northwestern (no change)

Northwestern might be the unluckiest team in the country.  Currently, with redshirts and injuries, the Wildcats are without 6 of their top 8 roster players.  Good luck competing with that lineup.  

11.   Nebraska (no change)

The Huskers battled Michigan State pretty tough at home over the weekend, and have improved slightly as the season has gone on.  They will likely jump into the 10^th spot by the end of the season.

12.   Penn State (no change)

Penn State continues to play hard, as they almost beat Iowa and fought for 40 minutes in Ann Arbor.  It will be interesting to see how much they can improve with more playmakers, because the coach seems to get the most out of his guys.  

Penn State Recap

Michigan made their way back to the friendly confines of the Crisler Center yesterday for the dedication weekend.  Many of the past greats converged on Ann Arbor to take in the new facilities and the new look basketball team.  Unfortunately, one of the only welcome sites was the throwback uniforms.  The Wolverines hosted B1G-worst Penn State, and needed most of the 40 minutes to secure the victory.  It was obvious from the beginning that Michigan was still tired and struggled matching the energy level of the outmatched Nittany Lions.  On a positive note, a close win still counts the same as a 30 point drubbing.

The most discouraging aspect of the basketball game was the defensive rotation from Michigan.  Playing good defense usually consists of playing smart, understanding your role in the team’s strategy, and having a desire to defend.  Currently, I am not seeing any of those three executed by the Wolverines.  The freshmen continue to be isolated by the opponent, and they have yet to show any ability to force teams to change that strategy.  Trey Burke has even been a repeat offender in the last week.  While he has upped his on ball aggressiveness throughout the season, he is also getting beat by the ball handler more often.  This allows the point guard to get into the lane at will, where the rate of success dramatically improves.  Remember one of the keys for Michigan on offense? They are nearly indefensible if Trey gets into the lane where he has the option to shoot a mid-range jumper, take the ball all the way to the hoop, pass down to a rolling big man, hit a cutting GRIII, or kick out to Hardaway and Stauskas.  The past two games, Appling, Valentine, Marshall, and Newbill have been able to get into the lane mostly at will.  For a team that already struggles at rotations, this is usually the death blow.  In the Michigan State game it was mostly Appling just putting the ball on the hoop where the, now, out of position Michigan post player couldn’t box out Payne or Nix; resulting in 14 offensive rebounds. In the Penn State game it was dishing to a wide open center, Borovnjak, who was made to look like an All-B1G player by finishing with 17 points on 7-9 shooting.  While the added pressure on top has resulted in a few more forced turnovers on the year, Burke needs to choose his spots better to help the rest of the team stay out of lose-lose situations.  Michigan’s defense has never been confused with Wisconsin’s this season, but they were doing a very good job of defending the 2 point shot and then rebounding a high rate of those misses.  Before the Indiana game, the Wolverines were 3^rd in the conference at 2 point defense, but now they have fallen to dead last.  That is a pretty rapid fall from a considered strength.  The one consistency in all 5 of those games is that Morgan has not been 100%, but I personally don’t think that is the only reason for the slip.  Hopefully this week off not only brings the starting center back completely, but also gives the team time for rest and time to focus on defensive fundamentals.  If Michigan can get back to holding opponents around 40% 2 point shooting and rebounding those misses at a 70% rate or better, the Wolverines are the most dangerous team in the country.  That seems like a big if right now.  For reference, Michigan State shot 23-32 from inside the arc (72%) and one of the worst offenses in the conference (PSU) shot 49%.

Offensively, Michigan got back to their efficient ways of 1.19 ppp.  Before the game I was actually expecting this number to be closer to 1.25 or higher.  The Wolverine offense was really helped by shooting 35 free throws, more than they had combined in the 4 prior games.  The Penn State guards got into early foul trouble, which allowed Trey to do whatever he wanted with the ball in his hands.  He drove to lane effortlessly; hit open 3 point attempts, and found Stauskas and Robinson for easy looks.  Burke finished with 29 points.  The 2 starting freshmen also got back on track a little bit with Nik going for 18 even though he struggled with his deep shot and Glenn finished with 21 on back cuts and running in transition.  In case you are counting, that is 68 points from 3 guys.  Michigan scored 79 as a team.  Stauskas was effective in attacking the hoop and drawing fouls, and Glenn showed again some of his NBA potential by finishing 6-6 with 5 dunks and one put back layup.  Penn State could not take away the Michigan transition game that has been stagnant for much of the past two weeks, and when Trey Burke is leading breaks good things happen.  While the alley-oops and high flying dunks are spectacular, I still want to see Robinson use that athleticism against someone bigger and stronger (Watford, Payne, Thomas, etc).  I was impressed with the energy level from Robinson because the only way he gets alley-oop attempts is to beat his man down the floor, but I was most impressed with his effort in the rebounding game.  It has been noted everywhere how Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan State were able to shut down Glenn from scoring, but I think those teams being able to take away his rebounding gave them a bigger advantage.  Even when GRIII is not scoring the basketball, his athletic ability should be cleaning up defensive rebounds and attacking the offensive glass. 

Thankfully, for both fans and players, Michigan has a week off before taking on a rising Illinois team.  Getting healthy and back to basics will be the key to this week.  I have been looking forward to seeing how the Wolverines respond this Sunday since the Indiana game.  It might be time to lower expectations further if Morgan is 100% and the defensive intensity is still lacking against Illinois.

Michigan State Recap... the sky is falling...

Let’s mark February 12^th as the day Michigan lost their remaining bandwagon fans.  John Beilein should be fired; Glenn Robinson III should leave for the NBA draft because I am sick of watching him disappear; this team will not win a single post season game.  These are just some of the statements that I have heard from people in the last 18 hours.  If you are in this camp today please feel free to leave a comment or continue to wait for 2012 Kentucky to walk through the door. However, the loss against Wisconsin was fare more infuriating for me.  Today I just feel embarrassed, and my expectations for this team have fallen off a bit.  But a lot of things can change between now and Selection Sunday.  Remember my post just last week explaining that Michigan was the clear favorite for the top number one seed? 

I would like to put last night’s loss into perspective.  The young Wolverines just completed their toughest 4 game stretch, all in 11 days.  These 11 days consisted of trips to the 3 toughest places to play in the conference, and maybe the country, and then a home game against a top 10 team.  Michigan plays a short bench, and yet the rotation still consists of 6 freshmen.  On top of playing the other 4 teams in the top 5 of the B1G, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State are the most physically imposing teams in the nation.  Oh, and did I mention that Michigan went to battle without their best post defender?  While I am disappointed, like the rest of Wolverine Nation, it is actually pretty amazing that this team found a way to win any of these games. 

Everyone knows all of these prior facts, but they still don’t help with the vomit-inducing thoughts from last night.  Michigan was outplayed in every area of the game, and if it wasn’t for 3 desperation shots from Trey Burke the deficit could have been a lot worse.  Nik Stauskas was slow to rotate and unable to fight through screens, which allowed Gary Harris to take 9 unattested 3 point attempts.  Horford and McGary were not able to stop Derrick Nix from getting whatever position he wanted.  Then when Michigan State actually missed a shot, the Wolverines couldn’t keep anybody off of the glass.  Numerous times Dawsen, Valentine, and Harris crashed towards the hoop with no resistance.  There were also 4 offensive rebounds that were first touched at the 3 point line.  I believe the tired legs hit Michigan’s defensive and rebounding ability the hardest.  On the offensive end, Tim Hardaway had his worst game of the season, and possibly his career, by shooting 1-11.  There were 3 missed lay ups and 3 wide open deep attempts in those 10 misses.  Glenn Robinson continued to hide in the far corner, and McGary became an offensive liability.  Last night’s game was too big for Michigan.  They didn’t respond well to Michigan State’s first round punch, but, then again, they weren’t able to.  Each big comeback this season has been sparked by efficient offense, which has trickled down to defensive intensity.  Last night Michigan was never able to get anything going consistently.  Whether it was missed open looks, hesitation to driving because of the physical play (and no foul calls), or unforced turnovers, the Wolverines couldn’t hang with Michigan State’s hot shooting. 

It seems that Michigan can still get a one seed if they were to win out in the regular season and at least make the Big Ten Tournament Championship game.  Even with an ugly road loss, I don’t know how a 5 loss Big Ten team could be overlooked.  However, it is more likely that the Wolverines will fall to a 2 seed.  I know the schedule lightens up moving forward, but the most important thing for Michigan is to get healthy again because isn’t the ultimate goal to be playing your best basketball in March and not on February 12^th?  This is still a dangerous team with more weapons than John Beilein has ever coached, but they are flawed like every other college basketball team.  All I know is that I am going to try to enjoy the remaining games where Trey Burke puts on a jersey with Michigan across the front, because when is the last time that we can say our basketball team will fall to a 2 seed after a near 30 point blowout loss?

Good vs Evil, who will win tonight?

Yes, that is right folks, tonight is Michigan vs Michigan State.  Maize and blue vs whatever mix of colors Sparty chooses tonight.  It will be the first time in the history of this rivalry that it will match up 2 top ten teams.  And, of course, it is also the match up of good vs evil.  I will let you decide which side is which.



John B after a bad call...



Tommy after a good call...

Tonight will go a long way in deciding which of these teams are going to compete with Indiana for the regular season conference title.  While it is not a must-win game for the Wolverines, another top 10 road win would be a great bounce back to their lackluster performance in Madison over the weekend.  The Spartans are looking to keep serve on their home court and prove to the country that they are still the team of note in the mitten state. 

Just like the Indiana game, this contest has many exciting match up possibilities.  Both teams will try to force their game on the other.  In Michgan's case, they need to be looking to exploit the athletic mismatch of Payne guarding GR3.  Robinson is the superior athlete, but has been silenced so far this season in most raucous road atmospheres.  If the Wolverines are able to get out in transition and find a streaking GR3 for easy buckets, it could force Tom Izzo to abort the 2 big man rotation to match Michigan's smaller, athletic lineup.  On the other end, since Michigan will likely be without Jordan Morgan again, the Spartans will try to attack the post against the inexperienced Wolverines.  Derrick Nix will put a lot of pressure on Mitch McGary to play defense with his feet and not his body or hands, and Adreian Payne will be a problem to keep off of the offensive glass.  Without Michigan's best post defender, John Beilein will likely shy away from playing 2 post players at one time because of the foul concerns.  This is going to put a lot of pressure on the Robinson to play with better energy.  Also, with this game being played in East Lansing, it is likely that Mitch McGary will start the game with 2 fouls.  While the absence of Jordan Morgan was felt some against Wisconsin, the style of play from Michigan State will likely make that an overwhelming weakness. 

But, all hope is not yet lost.  Since, Trice is likely out with a concussion, the Spartans will be forced to play a 6 man rotation for the majority of the game because Izzo does not trust his bench outside of Denzel Valentine.  It will be important for the Michigan guards to attack the hoop and not settle for contested jump shots.  Keith Appling and Valentine are very susceptible to picking up fouls because of not moving their feet on defense.  Depending on how the refs call the game, Trey Burke should be able to use that to his advantage.  If either point guard gets into foul trouble, the Spartans will be forced to go deeper into their bench where there is little to be desired.  Michigan State has struggled to defend the pick and roll at times this season, which is good news for the Wolverines.  This has a lot to do with Derrick Nix having the defensive range of a fire hydrant.  Burke should be able to get into the lane more tonight, which will likely force Dawson to suck into the middle.  It will be crucial for Hardaway and Stauskas to take some scoring pressure off from Burke. 

I don't think this game will have the feel it has the past two seasons, since both teams are more capable of playing at a quicker pace.  We could actually see the winner score 70 points.  I have discussed Michigan's defensive deficiencies many times, and Tom Izzo is one of the best at exploiting mismatches, so it seems very unlikely for Michigan to hold the Spartans under 65 points.  For the Wolverines to stick around in this game, and ultimately win, 2 of the 3 freshman playing major minutes will need to score at least their season average.  Also, on the defensive end, it will be important to for McGary to stay out of foul trouble.  If the refs are calling a tight game, then at some point Vanilla Thunder will just need to be unleashed and allowed to foul out.  He will need to be able to get into the rhythm of the game.  So far this season Michigan has bounced back with 2 huge wins after losses, and a third tonight would put them back in control of their own B1G destiny.