Monday, February 18, 2013

B1G Update


If you weren’t sure how difficult this conference is, then check out this week’s KenPom rakings.  There are 8 B1G teams in the top 29, and all 8 have a very real shot at winning 20 games before the conference tournament.  After watching a lot of college basketball over the weekend I think Michigan cruises to a regular season conference title in any other in America.  Duke lost at Maryland Saturday evening, and Coach K mentioned their fatigue after an ACC “brutal” four game stretch.  It consisted of: NC State at home, Boston College on the road, North Carolina at home, and Maryland on the road.  In case you were wondering, none of those teams are even ranked right now and Duke should have gone 1-3 in that stretch.   Duke lost to a bubble team that turned the ball over 26 times, and should have lost 2 others.  As an upper classmen laden team, the Blue Devils struggled in that stretch.  Now, throw in that Michigan plays 6 freshmen, competes in the most physically demanding conference, and just played 4 straight ranked teams (3 on the road).  Hopefully the Wolverines will just be able to recover in time for the NCAA tournament.

1.       Indiana (no change)
Indiana cruised to another dominating week with blowout wins over Nebraska and Purdue.  The Hoosiers seem to have gotten their confidence back from their loss at Illinois.  This week is the showdown in East Lansing.  The regular season title will be all but wrapped up if Indiana wins tomorrow night. 

2.       Michigan State (no change)
The Spartans dominated Michigan on their home floor last week, and then won a lackluster game against Nebraska.  Michigan State is playing some of the best basketball in the country right now.  This week begins their gauntlet of games with matchups against Indiana and at Ohio State.  The Spartans will need to at least win Tuesday night to keep pace in the conference race. 

3.       Michigan (no change)
Michigan got blitzed by Michigan State and recorded a win over inept Penn State. The Wolverines will have to use their time off to improve on the defensive end if they want to compete for a league championship.  Right now the only thing Michigan has going for them is that Trey Burke still is the point guard.

4.       Wisconsin (up 1)
I said if Wisconsin went 2-0 for another week I would have to move them up a spot in the rankings.  They went 1-1, with an overtime loss against Minnesota and a 21 point win against Ohio State.  With their dominating game yesterday it is hard to keep the Buckeyes above them.  The Badgers have the easiest road remaining in the regular season, so it is looking like Bo Ryan will keep the streak alive of finishing in the top 4.  It is crazy to think this team was on the bubble heading into conference season. 

5.       Ohio State (down 1)
The Buckeyes continue to struggle on the offensive end of the floor.  That being coupled with playing in the Kohl Center exploited Ohio State.  If this team is making shots, like they did in Ann Arbor two weeks ago, they are clearly a top 10 team.  When they don’t, they are capable of losing by 20+ (see Illinois and Wisconsin).  This week they have two big matchups with Minnesota and Michigan State.  While they are likely out of the regular season championship race they can still cause some havoc with games against the Spartans and Hoosiers remaining.

6.       Illinois (no change)
Illinois is one of the hottest teams in the conference right now, and after their buzzer beating win over Indiana they have yet to lose.  The Illini are solidly off the bubble for the time being.  Illinois has games against Penn State and Michigan this week, so continuing that winning streak might be difficult but if it happens they could move up into the top 25 polls again.

7.       Iowa (up 1)
Iowa finally found the easy part of their schedule.  After losing many close games that they should have won (Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin), the Hawkeyes were rewarded with a close win against Penn State and a blowout win over Minnesota.  Iowa has 4 very winnable games remaining and also have to travel to Bloomington.  It is very likely that this team end up with 9 or 10 conference wins and puts themselves back in the bubble picture.  I would have to guess that a 10 win team from the Big Ten is a lock to make the tournament.

8.       Minnesota (down 1)
The Gophers are back to struggling again. They eked out an ugly win against Wisconsin and then got pummeled by Iowa over the weekend.  Minnesota doesn’t have time to rest though, as they head to Columbus to face an angry Buckeye team.  This team continues to fall towards the bubble, but if they make the tournament as a 6-9 seed I don’t think there is a top 3 seed that would want to see these guys in the opening weekend.

9.       Purdue (no change)
Purdue was embarrassed again by rival Indiana, and also blown out by Illinois.  The Boilers continue to lack offensive playmakers, and lately have really struggled defending the low post. 

10.   Northwestern (no change)
Northwestern might be the unluckiest team in the country.  Currently, with redshirts and injuries, the Wildcats are without 6 of their top 8 roster players.  Good luck competing with that lineup.  

11.   Nebraska (no change)
The Huskers battled Michigan State pretty tough at home over the weekend, and have improved slightly as the season has gone on.  They will likely jump into the 10th spot by the end of the season.

12.   Penn State (no change)
Penn State continues to play hard, as they almost beat Iowa and fought for 40 minutes in Ann Arbor.  It will be interesting to see how much they can improve with more playmakers, because the coach seems to get the most out of his guys.  

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