Another case for the number 1 seeds....

The NCAA will try to put the top teams in the closest regional possible, which could leave the last one seed at a significant disadvantage.

The four regionals this season are:

East: Washington DC

Midwest: Indianapolis

South: Arlington

West: Los Angeles

The eleven teams that can play themselves into a one seed are (in order):

Indiana 23-3
Miami 21-3
Florida 21-3
Michigan State 22-4
Gonzaga 25-2
Michigan 22-4

Duke 22-3
Syracuse 21-4

Kansas 21-4

Louisville 21-5
Georgetown 19-4

Indiana

Losses: Butler, Wisconsin, @ Illinois

Quality Wins: Georgetown, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, @ Ohio State

Indiana is back on top after the last bracketology post.  Their loss at Illinois is looking better as the Illini have not lost since then.  Also, it helps that the Hoosiers have destroyed all of their competition since that loss.  They have two 20+ point wins against the bottom of the B1G, and a double digit dominant performance in Columbus.  The Hoosiers still have their two toughest games of the season coming up (@ Michigan State and @ Michigan).  

Miami

Losses: @ Florida Gulf Coast University, Arizona, Indiana State

Quality Wins: Michigan State, Duke, @ NC State

After barely including the Hurricanes in my first post, they have sky-rocketed to a near lock for a number one seed.  They have yet to lose in conference, and since the ACC is down this year it seems unlikely that they will lose again.   Miami does still have to travel to Duke still, but it is likely the 'Canes would need more than 1 loss to bump them from a one seed.

Florida

Losses: @ Arizona, Kansas State, @ Arkansas

Quality Wins: Wisconsin, Missouri, Ole Miss

Not much has changed with the Gators since the last post.  Teams around them keep losing, and Florida continues to beat up terrible teams.  Like Miami, I think the Gators are pretty close to locking up a top spot.  It will be interesting to see which regional both Florida teams will be assigned to.

Michigan State

Losses: Connecticut, @ Miami, @ Minnesota, @ Indiana

Quality Wins: Kansas, Ohio State, @ Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan

The Spartans took advantage of their opportunities with a dominating win over Michigan last week.  I personally think Indiana and Michigan State are playing some of the best basketball in the entire nation right now.  Since the B1G teams will continue to beat each other up, it seems unlikely for the conference to get 2 top seeds, but at this time I think both deserve it.  Like mentioned last time, the Spartans have a lot of tough games coming up, and if they get through them unscathed this will be the team on the top of the charts.

Gonzaga

Losses: Illinois, @ Butler

Quality Wins: Kansas State, @ Oklahoma State

Gonzaga continues to hang back in their mid-major conference and watch all of the big boys fight.  I doubt the Zags will lose another game this season, and since there are two B1G teams ahead of them right now it seems very likely that Gonzaga could grab the final number one seed, which would probably be the West regional. 

Michigan

Losses: @ Ohio State, @ Indiana, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State

Quality Wins: Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, @ Minnesota, @ Illinois, Ohio State

Since the first post, the Wolverines have sputtered and lost 2 of 3 games.  While they are not technically out of the running for a number one seed, they have a lot of ground to make up.  None of Michigan's 4 losses are bad, and each of those teams should make the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tournament.  However, these 4 teams exposed some of the Wolverine's weaknesses, so it will be interesting to see how the young team bounces back.
 

Duke

Losses: @ NC State and @ Miami, @ Maryland

Quality Wins: Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU, Louisville, Ohio State, NC State

Duke continues to struggle without Ryan Kelly, and it is looking more and more likely that they will not have him in time for the ACC tournament.  Even if Duke finds a way to win out, I don't think they should be placed on the 1 line because of the significance of the injury.

Syracuse

Losses: Temple, @ Villanova, @ Pittsburgh, @ Connecticut

Quality Wins: San Diego State, Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame

The Big East has an outside chance of getting one top seed, and right now the Orange are at the top of that list.  Syracuse cannot afford more than 2 more losses to be considered for a one seed though.  If it comes down to a discussion of the top Big East team vs Gonzaga, you would have to imagine the Big East holds the advantage.

 

Kansas

Losses: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, @ TCU, @ Oklahoma

Quality Wins: @ Ohio State, @ Kansas State, Kansas State

Kansas dropped three in a row, but they have bounced back with blowout wins over Kansas State and Texas.  The Jayhawks still have to travel to Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Baylor.  If Kansas can win out, it will be difficult to keep them from a top seed.  With how bad they played in that 3 game stretch, I think it is likely Kansas will drop one of those road games and possibly another in the conference tournament.

Louisville

Losses: Duke, @ Syracuse, @ Villanova, @ Georgetown, @ Notre Dame

Quality Wins: Missouri, @ Memphis, Kentucky, Pittsburgh

Louisville is a confusing team.  They have a ton of talent, and when it is clicking this team is one of the best in basketball.  Too often this season that has not been the case.  Russ Smith can play for the other team just as much as benefit the Cardinals.  I think Rick Pitino's squad will end up on the 3 or 4 line come selection Sunday, but they do have a chance to play up for a 1 or 2 seed.  Louisville has games coming up against Syracuse, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame.

Georgetown
Losses: Indiana, @ Marquette, Pittsburgh, @ USF
Quality Wins: @ Notre Dame, Marquette, @ Cincinnati
The Hoyas are definitely a very long shot right now for a top seed, but they are the hottest team in the Big East.  If they can continue on their winning streak with games at Syracuse and Connecticut coming up they will be sitting in the top 10 with the Big East tournament still to play.  I think it is more likely Georgetown ends up on the 4 line however. 

I dropped Arizona from the potential one seeds and replaced them with long shot Georgetown.  The Wildcats keep losing in one of the worst Pac-12's in memory, and they just are not a mentally tough team right now.  The Big Ten is guaranteed at least one number one seed, with the potential for a 2nd depending on when the losses come.  Florida and Miami seemed to have wrapped up a top spot, but now are competing with each other to see which regional they head to.  If the B1G is limited to just one team, then the next in line would be Gonzaga and Duke if both teams can win the rest of their games.

My four number one seeds are:

Midwest: Indiana

East: Florida

South: Miami

West: Michigan State