Week 14: Ohio State Preview

Mercifully we have made it to the regular season finale.  Unfortunately the Wolverines have to face the toughest opponent on the schedule, and one that is still looking for style points to jump into the top 2 of the BCS standings.

Ohio State Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The Buckeyes boast one of the best rushing attacks in the B1G.  They are led by senior Carlos Hyde and dual-threat quarterback Braxton Miller.  The offensive line is experienced, and has improved throughout the season.  Last year Michigan focused on stopping Miller, and they succeeded for the most part.  However, Hyde had a huge game and was able to ice the win in the fourth quarter when the Wolverines could not stop him. Again Michigan has a good run defense, but it will be tested time and again on Saturday. It is likely that Coach Mattison wants to use a similar game plan to take away Miller’s home run threat and try to contain Hyde between the tackles. It will be interesting to see if Michigan tries to deploy a linebacker spy for Miller which will effectively remove a player from the box.  The Wolverines have improved when defending the option, but look for that improvement to be tested. Ohio State will try to attack the edges against the offense.  The scary thing is if it is not working, the offensive line and Hyde are still able to run between the tackles.  Look for Frank Clark to continue his redemption tour season, and for him and Cam Gordon/Ryan to shut down the option.  Hyde will test the interior defense, which they will likely find success against undersized Jibreel Black.  Ohio State will likely still push 170+ rushing yards, but it will be important for the Wolverines to keep the yards per carry under 5. Advantage Ohio State.

Ohio State Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
The Michigan secondary will probably continue their roller coaster season.  There have been times when they look like a near shut down unit, but then just as soon as thinking that they can break down and give up a huge play.  Hopefully Jarrod Wilson and Thomas Gordon play the whole way, and Courtney Avery only sees spot time at a nickel back.  Braxton Miller has never been the most accurate passer, but Ohio State uses the short passing routes and screens to get their quarterback into a comfortable mind set. If Michigan cannot defend the run with the standard 4-3 defense, and need to start cheating a safety into the box look for Miller to look for one of his speedsters down the field. Michigan dialed up the pressure against Northwestern, but then sat back into the bend but don’t break defense against Iowa. Even though the Buckeye offensive line is very good, Coach Mattison has to take chances and send a wide array of blitzes. Miller is very prone to mistakes when under pressure, and it is the only way to slow down the OSU offense. Even if Frank Clark has a good day in the backfield, he will need help.  I think a lot of that will come from a combination of Ross, Ryan, and Cam Gordon.  Look for the secondary to record at least one interception, but also give up at least one big play over the top likely to Corey Brown.  Advantage Ohio State.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Ohio State Rush Defense
In one word: death. The Wolverines were dominant by their standards last week when they rushed for 3 yards per carry.  The Buckeye defense is not as stout against the run as Iowa is, so there could be some yards for the taking here.  The problem is that the Wolverines might be the worst rushing team in the country.  Even with Derrick Green and DeVeon Smith getting a bulk of the carries, their ability to fall forward results in getting back to the line of scrimmage.  Ohio State’s defense can be attacked here, but it is very unlikely with Gardner nowhere near 100% and the offensive line blocking less defenders than reach the backfield. Most teams should be able to achieve 4 yards per carry against this Buckeye defense, but I would consider it a win if the Wolverines could replicate last week’s output. Advantage Ohio State.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Ohio State Pass Defense
Iowa didn’t blitz as much as the previous three opponents, and therefore the Wolverine offensive line only gave up one sack. This could be looked at as a major step forward, and while it was nice to see Devin upright for most of the game, the offensive line will need to take another huge step this week. The Buckeyes are the best pass rushing team in the conference. The defensive line replaced a lot from last year, and seemingly have not missed a beat.  Many of the stars are Urban’s first recruits, whereas Hoke’s offensive recruits have yet to show their high rankings. I expect the interior of the line to get blown up all day, and Ohio State won’t even have to blitz much.  It will be much worse if they send Ryan Shazier as a heat seeking missile.  I would be surprised if the Michigan quarterback is sacked less than 5 times. The question will be if/when Devin has time if he can exploit the high risk/ high reward secondary Jeremy Gallon and Devin Funchess could have a lot of receiving yards. However, I don’t expect much success in this area either.  If Devin has time, and could get into a rhythm early in the game Michigan could push 250 yards in the air, but this has not happened since Indiana and I doubt it will on Saturday. I just hope the duct tape holding Gardner together doesn’t rip in half, and the Michigan quarterback finds a way to leave in one piece. Advantage Ohio State.

The line is anywhere between 13 and 16 depending on which site you look at, and both numbers are probably still too low. Ohio State and Urban Meyer want to leave a good impression with the BCS voters, and they need quality wins and style points. Don’t expect the Buckeyes to take their foot off the gas until the clock is at zero.  Michigan has done a better job at protecting the ball the last few weeks, but if the turnover bug strikes again this game will get out of a hurry fast.  The only hope for the Wolverines is if the offensive line has a career day, and Gardner finds his confidence even though he can barely still stand.  On top of that, the defense would need to force a few turnovers and give the offense a short field. That is a lot of ifs.  Lets just take it as a win if the Big House isn’t a sea of red, but I doubt Michigan wins that battle either. Ohio State 38 Michigan 7.

B1G Week 14 Preview

Iowa @ Nebraska Friday 12:00pm
The best game on the schedule will be the first one of the weekend which will leave Saturday for the more interesting top 25 matchups.  The Hawkeyes have quietly put together a quality season.  We don’t know if that is due to the overwhelming weakness of the conference, or if Iowa is actually average. I have mentioned Nebraska’s Jekyll and Hyde home and road splits, so luckily for the Huskers they are in Lincoln to close the season.  Even though Iowa doesn’t do anything one thing on an elite level, they are consistent and do not beat themselves. As well as Nebraska has played this season at home, I just think the Hawkeyes balanced attack will be good enough to move the ball.  The Husker’s offense is a shell of what it was to start the season, and will rely on Ameer Abdullah to have a big game.  When Iowa is able to key on a one dimensional offense, the defense has looked dominant. While Abdullah will still likely get to 100 yards, I doubt he will exceed 5 yards per carry.  Look for a late turnover to seal the Huskers fate, as Iowa will move up the B1G bowl selection pecking order.

Minnesota @ Michigan State Saturday 12:00pm
The Gophers somehow hung with Wisconsin last week which might be Minnesota’s most impressive feat of the season.  This week they have to travel to East Lansing.  Even though Michigan State has already wrapped up the division, they are still trying to impress the BCS voters to stay in BCS at large contention.  The Spartan defense is just too dominant for the run first, run second, and run some more offense from Minnesota.  While this final score might be lower scoring, it will be an easy victory for Michigan State.

Purdue @ Indiana Saturday 3:30pm
The Boilermakers had their best chance of stealing a conference win last week against Illinois, but couldn’t close the deal.  Even though Purdue is one of the worst B1G teams ever they have improved throughout the season.  Indiana is coming off of two beat downs at the hand of Wisconsin and Ohio State.  The Hoosier offense will look to get back into form at home, and I don’t think Purdue will be able to stop them at all. Indiana will put up a lot of points again, but Purdue might actually top 28 in this one.

Northwestern @ Illinois Saturday 3:30pm
Illinois will get to play in back to back pillow fights. A week after escaping against Purdue for their first conference win under Coach Beckman, the Illini will welcome winless Northwestern.  The Illinois defense is still plenty bad, but Northwestern has been devastated by injuries.  After the overtime loss to Michigan it looked like the Wildcat players have thrown in the towel.  I would like to see Coach Fitz end on a little positive note, but I think Nathan Scheelhasse will be too much for Northwestern to contain and Illinois will finish on a 2 game winning streak.

Penn State @ Wisconsin Saturday 3:30pm
The Badgers still have a shot at another BCS bowl, but they need some style points.  Even though Penn State is really bad this season, their tradition gives them a little recognition. Also, it will be a good opportunity to compare what Ohio State did at home to the Nittany Lions.  While it doesn’t seem like the new coach in Madison is as much of a meat head as his predecessor, Penn State will not be able to stop the Badger rushing attack.  Look for White and Gordon to close out the regular season in style, and for Wisconsin to roll on senior day at Camp Randall.

Week 14 Upset Alert

We have made it to the final week of the regular season, and most matchups are ripe with rivalries. Eight of the top nine teams play in some sort of rivalry game, which could lead to an exciting shake up in the BCS top ten rankings.

#24 Duke @ North Carolina
In the first rivalry upset of the week we see a surprising ranked team. Duke might be having their most successful season in its football history. Duke is one win away from a 10 win season and a spot in the ACC Championship Game to be the next sacrifice to the Florida State dominance. North Carolina has won 5 games in a row, and seems to have started clicking on both sides of the ball. Look for quarterback Marquise Williams to have a big game in the air, and for the Tar Heels to outscore the Dukies.

#1 Alabama @ #4 Auburn
This is the heavyweight match of the week, and rightfully so.  While the behind the scenes facts have been discussed ad naseum, I am excited for the Iron Bowl to be settled on the field. Nick Saban has never beat an Auburn team that has finished with 9 or more wins (the Tigers are already 10-1).  Auburn and Alabama have only met once when both in the top 5.  Auburn really shouldn’t have 1 loss, and were extremely lucky against Georgia.  The Tigers still have an outside shot at jumping into the top 2 by winning Saturday, and then the following week in the SEC Championship Game. Anyways onto the game: Alabama’s defense continues to improve, and have gelled into the dominant group that most expected.  Auburn has united under Coach Malzahn, and might have the most dynamic rushing attack in the country.  That is a nice weapon to have, but Alabama’s defense will not be shredded by a one dimensional unit.  Nick Marshall will have to make some plays in the passing game to free up the M&M two-pronged assault (Marshall and Mason).  I do think Auburn will be able to hit on a few big plays in the air, which will loosen the defense and free up at least 2 rushing touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, the balanced attack from the Tide should be able to move the ball consistently and wear down the Tiger defense. Look for Yeldon and the Tide running backs to have a very good game that controls the clock and limits turnovers.  Alabama should give Saban his first win over a good Auburn team. 

#6 Clemson @ #10 South Carolina
The Tigers started the year as the likely candidate to knock Alabama off its throne, but then Florida State rolled to town and then absolutely dominated Clemson in every aspect on their home field. Since then the Tigers have been floating in the top 10 as a one loss team, but nobody really knows how good they are. Now to wrap up the season they take on another top 10 SEC team.  South Carolina has also had a discouraging season, as discouraging as a team still ranked in the top 10 can. The Gamecocks still have an outside chance at the SEC Championship Game, but will need help from Johnny Manziel and company. This matchup will be the last one between Tajh Boyd and Jadeveon Clowney. Boyd has never beat South Carolina, but might have his best chance this Saturday.  The Gamecocks have been riddled with injuries all season, and Clemson seems to be flying under the radar after the Seminole beat down. Look for the experienced Tiger defensive ends to have a big game against the struggling South Carolina tackles, and Connor Shaw has never handled pressure well.  The Gamecocks will need to break a few big plays, likely to Ellington, and hope Davis can have a big game on the ground.  I just don’t think the South Carolina offensive line will be able to protect the quarterback long enough to attack the Clemson weak point (secondary).  On the other side of the ball, Clowney will likely see double and triple teams all game and this year he does not have Devin Taylor on the other side to help him.  Clemson just has too many play makers on offense to South Carolina to keep up with and control.  I guess according to the spread, the Tigers winning on the road would be a upset.

#21 Texas A&M @ #5 Missouri
Another Upset Alert post, and another mention of Missouri.  The Tigers will be playing for a lot more this week, and still haven’t lost when starting quarterback James Franklin plays.  This week is more of a big game preview than an upset alert. The Aggie defense still cannot stop any offense with a pulse, which puts all the pressure on Manziel’s talent.  While I don’t like the kid, I cannot argue that he is one of the best college football players that I have ever seen.  However, the Missouri defensive ends are on a different level than most teams in the country.  I don’t expect the Texas A&M offensive line can hold up all game, and the Tiger pressure will force at least one interception.  Look for Franklin to hook up with the giant receivers Washington and Green-Beckham, and for Henry Josey to have a big game on the ground.  Missouri should go from worst to first in the SEC, and get a chance to play Alabama next week in Atlanta.

#22 UCLA @ #23 USC
This game is very evenly matched and the rankings prove that out.  Whichever team wins will most likely not be considered an upset. Even though Arizona State has clinched the Pac 12 South, both southern California teams have had impressive years. Considering where USC started, it is impressive that the Trojans are competing for a respectable bowl.  USC should have Marqise Lee back this week, which will test the young UCLA secondary.  While the up tempo attack from UCLA and Brett Hundley will test the lack of depth on the Trojan defense, I don’t think the Bruins will be able to outscore USC.

Arizona @ #12 Arizona State
The Wildcats are coming off one of the most impressive wins of the season last week, and are looking to continue to momentum going.  While this game is a rivalry game, Arizona State already has the Pac 12 South wrapped up. The Arizona defense has been playing better lately, but was also helped out by the bad weather last weekend against Oregon. Look for Sun Devil quarterback Kelly to have another huge game through the air, but Ka’Deem Carey is one of the best running backs in the country and will be able to control the clock long enough to keep Arizona State’s point total under 35 which should give the Wildcats a chance to pull out the big upset and give Coach Rodriguez a 2-0 record against the in-state rivals.

B1G Week 13 Recap

The B1G Championship Game was finalized this week, cementing what everyone knew for the past month.  Other than that it was a pretty standard day around the conference: losing teams mostly looking terrible and winning teams only slightly better.

Good surprise:
It is almost the end of November already, so this embarrassment of a season can finally be taken out back and put out of its misery.

Bad surprise:
I know Illinois is bad, but how do you let Purdue stay within 4 points in a football game. Purdue wouldn’t be bowl eligible in the MAC, and Illinois struggled with the Boilers on both sides of the ball. But I guess congrats to Illinois for recording their first win in two of the worst B1G years in history.

Nebraska might be the most bipolar team in the conference, and while road woes have been publicly covered with Michigan the Huskers might fall in the same boat. Their last three weeks have seen Big Red look absolutely terrible in Ann Arbor and Happy Valley, but then outplayed Michigan State at home in between.  What does that mean when they head to Florida on January 1^st?

Week 13 conference rankings:
1. Ohio State (no change)
2. Michigan State (up 1)
3. Wisconsin (down 1)
4. Minnesota (no change)
5. Nebraska (no change)
6. Iowa (no change)
7. Michigan (no change)
8. Indiana (no change)
9. Penn State (no change)
10. Northwestern (no change)
11. Illinois (no change)
12. Purdue (no change)

Week 13: Iowa Recap

It is Thanksgiving week, and I am extremely thankful that there is only two more football games to preview and recap. 

If you watched the game, you know how frustrating it was.

If you didnt watch the game I am so envious of you.

Week 13: Iowa Preview

The Michigan Wolverines managed to score more points than their opponent last week, and will try to continue this thing called winning.  Quick view: it doesn’t look likely.

Iowa Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The Hawkeyes have been decimated by ACL injuries to running backs in previous years, but Iowa has a trio of healthy backs still.  While they will not do anything creative in any aspect, the offensive line is always disciplined and able to execute the game plan, and the running backs are able to run through holes for a decent average.  This year Iowa is averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and averaging nearly 200 yards a game. This slots them near the middle of college football. The trio of backs include lineman-sized Mark Weisman, homerun threat Damon Bullock, and emerging sophomore Jordan Canzeri.  Look for the Hawkeyes to deploy all three tomorrow, with Weisman likely getting most of the carries due to the inclement weather. As brutal as the Michigan offense has been this year, it has overshadowed the impressive improvement from the defense. The Wolverine rush defense is one of the best in the country surrendering only 3.2 yards per carry.  The defensive line has had back to back best games of the season, but will be looking at a stiffer test tomorrow. I expect Michigan to be able to play their base defense more, which will keep Washington on the field for the majority of snaps. Even though Iowa will try to run the ball 30+ times, I don’t think they will have much success and will need to use the passing game to find seams with the running backs. Advantage Michigan.

Iowa Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
The Hawkeye passing attack is far from elite, but it has been consistent.  Jake Rudock is completing 60% of his passes, but for only 14 touchdowns. The main targets are Michigan native Kevonte Martin-Manley and super-giant TE C.J. Fiedorowicz.  Michigan has the athletes in the secondary to take away the wide receivers, but the Hawkeyes have found a lot of success against the Wolverines in past years by using tight ends in deep seam routes. If Michigan can continue to get an organic pass rush with four, or call effective blitzes, Rudock is prone to making a few mistakes.  The problem is the Iowa offensive line has only given up 9 sacks this year (basically a game for Devin Gardner).  If the Wolverine defensive line is able to collapse the pocket, the entire Iowa offensive attack will be shut down.  I don’t think the pass rush will be as consistent as last week. Coach Mattison seemed more willing to send extra blitzers last week, but will he do the same tomorrow? His confidence in his defense has not been higher, so I think he gambles more than early in the season to try to frustrate Rudock.  It also helps that Iowa is unlikely to beat you over the top for big plays that don’t include the tight ends. This will be an interesting game to see how much playing time Joe Bolden gets because he has consistently been the worst linebacker in coverage all season, and Iowa will try to exploit him when he is on the field. Even though Michigan would be able to lock down the potential Iowa pass catchers for the standard 3-4 seconds, Rudock will likely have much more time in the pocket.  Look for coverage to break down a few times for critical medium passing plays, especially over the middle. Advantage Iowa.  

Michigan Rush Offense vs Iowa Rush Defense
Even though the Wolverines remembered to run forward last week in Evanston, Iowa presents a much tougher test. The Hawkeyes are in a top ten rushing defense (strength of schedule caveats apply). That won’t matter in this one as any combination of Toussaint, Green, or Smith will likely be held to under 3 yards per carry. On a side note, senior Fitz is supposed to be back from injury this week, but at what point does the coaching staff let the young pups get crucial playing time.  They are bigger than Toussaint, and find a way to at least fall forward. They could be the difference between 40 rushing yards and 50. Advantage Iowa.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Iowa Pass Defense
Since the Wolverines will likely be running into a brick wall that hits you back, any offensive consistency will again fall on the shoulders of Devin Gardner. Iowa does not have a great secondary, but that hasn’t stopped Gardner from playing 500 with the defense or being too hesitant that results in him on his back.  The Hawkeyes defense strategy is straight out of 1980, and probably hasn’t changed once since then. They are content to sit back in a Cover 2, and they do not blitz often (if at all).  Michigan has to be able to protect Gardner in this one.  Iowa will use the early season Michigan bend-don’t-break strategy that will force Gardner to connect on short passing routes down the field. It has been over 2 months since the Wolverines were able to do this consistently.  On top of that, if Gardner is running for his life from the front 4 it is going to be a really long day in Iowa City.  Michigan has better playmakers than Iowa can defend with, but will the protection and throws be good enough to take advantage. Against Michigan State, Nebraska, and Northwestern the Wolverines weren’t able to. I would like to think the Michigan offense took a step forward in overtime last Saturday, but I wont believe it until I see it. Advantage Push.

I think Iowa is a better football team than Northwestern, and more consistent than Nebraska. On top of that Michigan hasn’t won in the land of corn since the days of Mike Hart.  If you want more to be concerned about, the Wolverines struggle on the road under Brady Hoke.  This game 2 years ago was when fans began to question Coach Borges offensive plans.  Again, on paper Michigan is the better team. Offensively they haven’t played up to that potential since Indiana, and it seems doubtful they will again this season.  With the temperatures in the teens, and the wind chill low enough to even freeze the fleshy Iowa-ins I don’t see how the Wolverines can score over 20 points (which shouldn’t be a problem with the talent on that side of the ball).  Iowa 13 Michigan 3.

Week 13 Upset Alert

This week features a mixed bag of games. Many of the top teams are playing horrible teams as their final nonconference game, but many mid-ranked teams will be challenged this week.

#12 Texas A&M @ #22 LSU
The Aggies still have Johnny Manziel for a few more games, but he does not play defense.  Even though LSU has 3 losses I think they are one of the best teams in the country. Zach Mettenberger has really emerged as one of the best quarterbacks of the SEC, and the young defense continues to improve. A&M will still be able to score points on the Tigers, but they haven’t been able to stop anybody this season.  LSU will be able to control the game on the ground, and use the home field advantage to knock off the Aggies.

#8 Missouri @ #24 Ole Miss
I put Missouri on my upset alert each week for a while in October because I thought their record was inflated by playing an easy schedule. But they continued to impress me, even with being upset by South Carolina. Ole Miss was everyone’s dark horse pick in the preseason, and have quietly worked their way back into the top 25. The Tiger defense will cause a lot of problems for Bo Wallace, but if he can get the ball to the outside to Moncrief or Treadwell the Rebels could score some points in this game. I think the Missouri defensive ends will have a big game, and the Tiger offense does just enough on offense to hold off Ole Miss on the road.

#4 Baylor @ #10 Oklahoma State
This year would be a great one to start the 4 team playoff because I think Baylor could compete with Florida State, if not Alabama. The Bears have an electric offense that uses the entire field to attack the defense. On top of having good playmakers in the skill positions, they also play at one of the fastest tempos in the country.  The Cowboys started as the Big 12 favorites, but haven’t lived up to the lofty expectations even though they find themselves in the top 10 again.  I don’t think Ok State has the offensive firepower needed to hang with the Bears. Look for Petty and the Baylor offense to continue their scoring rampage.

Puerto Rico Tip Off Preview

Michigan again finds itself in an early season tournament that will test the team’s inexperience, but should help accelerate the growth of this young team.  Two years ago nobody really knew what to expect from the Wolverines when they headed to Maui. It was another young team that relied on underclassmen at two of the guard positions.  Michigan began the tournament against athletically-elite Memphis, moved on to battle a veteran Duke, and finished against talented but divided UCLA.  In any year that is a tough 3 day stretch, but on November 23^rd, 2011 the Michigan Wolverines became a B1G contender.  The young maize and blue team managed to go 2-1, and Trey Burke’s legend was born.  Fast forward a year, and the cagers headed to Madison Square Garden for the Preseason NIT.  Even though the Wolverines were even more inexperienced that the year prior the expectations were drastically different. Michigan was the big fish in an underwhelming tournament lineup, but it didn’t matter because the team was already in midseason form.  Trey Burke began garnering NPOY acclaim, and the freshmen were added to the rotation seamlessly. Now as the Wolverines head to the Puerto Rico Tip-Off the mindset is very similar to 2011. While the overall talent is higher on this team than the one that exceeded expectations in Maui, the expectations could be solidified from this early tournament.

The 2013 Puerto Rico Tip-Off boasts one of the strongest fields of any pre-March Madness tournament.  It brings together a handful of different styles, talents, and intriguing matchups. Lets try to navigate through the 8 team pool to see Michigan’s chances.

The Field with KenPom ratings

Charlotte (#148)

Kansas State (#63)

Northeastern (#164)

Georgetown (#25)

Long Beach State (#202)

Michigan (#18)

Florida State (#65)

VCU (#7)

Michigan’s Potential Opponents

LBSU is the lowest ranked team in the tournament, but The Beach has had a lot of recent basketball success. The 49ers are just 1-3 on the season, but they have played a very difficult schedule so far. Usually LBSU has a very good, up-tempo offense and they are able to outscore most of their opponents. So far this year the offense has been the weak link, and the defense has not shown any improvement. This should be a good game to get the Wolverines back on track.  Look for Derrick Walton to see more minutes, and continue to learn from his mistakes.  Mitch McGary will also be eased into the lineup again, and will probably play 15-20 minutes depending on the score.  It will be very important for both Caris LeVert and Glenn Robinson III to bounce back from subpar games at Iowa State.

If the Wolverines are able to advance past Long Beach State, they will likely face a rematch of last year’s Round of 32 game in the NCAA Tournament: VCU.  The Rams will have revenge on their minds, and will be chomping at the bit to unleash their havoc defense on a freshman point guard. Trey Burke showed glimpses of greatness in Maui his freshman year, especially against the press happy Memphis Tigers. Derrick Walton doing it against one of the best defenses in the country would be even more impressive. Of course the load will not fall solely on number 10’s shoulders, he will have help from Spike Albrecht, Nik Stauskas, LeVert, and even GRIII if needed. Walton has struggled at times with playing too fast or taking a quick shot which will play right into the hands of VCU. This is one area where Coach Beilein is just a cut above the rest: he will leave Derrick in there to learn with the understanding that the end goal can only be realized in March and April and not in November. Of course if Derrick is completely overmatched and unable to initiate the offense, the coaching staff will make the appropriate adjustments, but the new freshman point guard will be given plenty of opportunities to learn and grow as a college player. Michigan broke the press last year easily, and on top of that VCU went cold from the floor for much of the game. The result was the Wolverines winning in resounding fashion. While VCU is quicker than any team in the country, they lack size on the interior.  If Michigan can beat the press, look for Mitch McGary to have the offense ran through him more than last weekend. The Rams could not stop Mitch last season, so look for the maize and blue to test if VCU has made any adjustments.

The Sunday game will likely be against Kansas State or Georgetown. The Wildcats are in their second year under Bruce Pearl, and were also an opponent in the Preseason NIT last year. They are still built around strong defense with a below average offense. They are giving up just over 60 points so far this season, but in turn are not even averaging 70 points themselves. They are led by impressive freshman Marcus Foster, who is scoring almost 17 points per game. However, outside of him scoring has been hard to come by.  Kansas State is also a young team, with 3 first or second year players in the top 5 of minutes played.  Like last year, this squad is looking like one that should improve throughout the season, but is beatable in November.

Georgetown on the other hand is a veteran team looking to replace a lottery pick in Otto Porter. The Hoyas have only played two games, but against two above average opponents (Oregon and Wright State). Georgetown likes to play at a slow pace and run an offshoot of the Princeton offense. It forces teams to play defense for 35 seconds, which can be challenging for young teams (see Michigan against Wisconsin last season).  While Coach Thompson III’s team might not be as talented as the Wolverines they will be very disciplined.  They are led by senior guard Markell Starks (19.5 ppg) and UCLA big man transfer Joshua Smith (15.5 ppg).  The Hoyas would like to keep the game around 60 possessions, where Michigan would like to bump that number up to 70+.

Even if Michigan isn’t the favorite to win the Puerto Rico Tip Off, it will be a great learning opportunity for the team.  After losing to Iowa State last weekend, going 2-1 would be a minimum expectation for this weekend.  Anything less than that could affect seeding come March. It will be exciting to see the character of this team start to take shape, and after the 3 games in 4 days more realistic expectations can be set for the 2013-2014 Michigan Basketball team. 

B1G Week 13 Preview

Michigan State @ Northwestern 12:00pm
The Spartans surprised me last week when they struggled against woeful Nebraska.  I don’t think this week will be as close. The Wildcats are coming off of another heartbreaking loss, and even though they might be the best 0-6 B1G team ever, they do not match well against Michigan State. Northwestern runs a running spread, but it is not as effective as Nebraska’s.  Look for the Spartans to get back on track, and keep the Wildcats under 100 yards rushing. This puts a lot of pressure on Siemian’s and Colter’s arm.  They do not have the playmakers on the edge to attach the Michigan State defense. Look for the Spartans to grind out yards on the ground, and for Cook to have an effective day with play action. 

Illinois @ Purdue 12:00pm
Will anyone even watch this game? I would need a lot of payment to sit through all 60 minutes.  In a battle for B1G embarrassment, this game could actually be close. Is this the week that the Illini get their first conference win in two years? Purdue has been playing better the past two weeks, but I don’t think they will be able to score as much as Illinois.

Wisconsin @ Minnesota 3:30pm
The Gophers have been the surprise team in the conference this season.  However, their record is a bit deceiving as their two toughest B1G games are still on the schedule. Wisconsin is still looking for style points from the pollsters.  Minnesota has really improved this season, and developed an identity as a program (more than Michigan can say at this point). The Badgers are playing their best football of the season right now. Even though this game will be in TCF Bank Stadium, I think Wisconsin will wear down Minnesota on the ground which will soften up the secondary for some long play action passes. Both teams have 2 losses, but the Badgers are the far superior squad. Look for both Gordon and White to have another big week.

Indiana @ Ohio State 3:30pm
A week after surviving against the 2^nd half Illinois comeback, Ohio State gets another non-bowl eligible team.  Indiana has a potent offense, but was completely shut down last week in Madison.  The Buckeyes defense was exposed against Illinois.  I expect Coach Wilson to have a good offensive game plan in this one, and for the Hoosiers to score more than 3 points.  However, the Indiana defense still is the worst in the conference and Ohio State will rack up points in a hurry.  Also, Urban is not scared of running up scores, so look for the Buckeyes to try to top 60 in this one.

Nebraska @ Penn State 3:30pm
If this game was played 20 years ago, it would be the talk of the country. However both teams are just not very good this year. The Nittany Lions are fading down the stretch as the defense gets more tired and banged up.  The Huskers are still playing for a January 1^st day, where they will enjoy getting mauled by another SEC team.  The Hackenberg – Robinson connection should be strong in this game, but Ameer Abdullah will be the difference maker. Look for him to go over 150 yards, and Nebraska to outscore Penn State.

B1G Week 12 Recap

The conference had another embarrassing week, this time with Ohio State even getting into the action.  What was once thought to be a brutal November for the Legends Division has all but been decided.

Good surprise:
Wisconsin has realized that it needs style points to be considered for a BCS at large berth, and they got some on Saturday.  I expected the Badgers to hang 50 on the Hoosiers, but I didn’t expect Indiana to be held to 3 points. Even though the 51 points was the least Wisconsin has scored in the past 3 meetings, this was the most impressive win.  It looks like both sides are clicking at the right time for the Badgers. Now they just need some help from teams in front of them. 

Bad surprise:
Ohio State’s defense surrendered 35 points to an Illinois team that hasn’t won a conference game in 2 years. It’s not just that the Illini scored a lot of points, it was how they scored them.  The Buckeyes gave up 4 solid drives, and 420 yards.  Illinois found weaknesses in the Ohio State defense, and were actually able to exploit them.  What would a good offense that has a month to prepare be able to do against the Buckeyes, say in a bowl game?

Penn State defense has littered the bad surprise section for much of the season, but they reached a new low on Saturday.  The Nittany Lions gave up 21 points to Purdue, one of the worst teams in the nation. I know Penn State has some depth issues, specifically in the defensive secondary, but giving up 21 points to the worst offense in the conference is just embarrassing.

I expected the Nebraska offense to be stymied by Michigan State, but I didn’t expect them to have 5 unforced turnovers. After watching the Huskers play Michigan, I lost any respect I had for that team.  I thought they were bad, but like Michigan, had an inflated record because of the absolute joke of a conference. I would have taken MSU if the line was 14 (I would have lost). I never imagined the Huskers to be able to move the ball against the Spartans, and that they would shoot themselves in the foot on 5 separate occasions. So maybe the offensive game plan and some execution should fall under the ‘good surprise’ section, but the 5 ridiculous turnovers overshadows anything good Nebraska was able to do.  

Week 12 conference rankings:
1. Ohio State (no change)
2. Wisconsin (no change)
3. Michigan State (no change)
4. Minnesota (no change)
5. Nebraska (no change)
6. Iowa (no change)
7. Michigan (no change)
8. Indiana (up 1)
9. Penn State (down 1)
10. Northwestern (no change)
11. Illinois (no change)
12. Purdue (no change)

Week 12: Northwestern Recap

It is the first week that I have at least some desire to recap this past weekend’s game.  Michigan traveled to Evanston to take on a Northwestern team that had lost 5 straight games. It was a difficult game to predict. On paper, Michigan would be double digit point favorites. However, after watching the two prior weeks, Michigan would be an underdog. The result was a combination of both.

The Wolverines started the game with the ball and effectively drove the ball down the field. The play calling was more creative than recent weeks as Michigan was able to showcase their athletes. Jeremy Gallon, Devin Funchess, Devin Gardner, Derrick Green, and DeVeon Smith all touched the ball. First downs were picked up with ease, and very quickly the Wolverines had a first and goal. Then the once unstoppable red zone team fell back into predictable habits. Michigan was held to a field goal, and then went into a shell until the end of regulation.  It is amazing that this team can show flashes of creativity and execution, and just as quickly be stuck in quicksand of their own doing. I do think Al Borges is a smart guy that can be creative at times, but he has shown an unwillingness to adjust in game and struggles to put his players in the best position to succeed. The Wolverines have the talent to show flashes of brilliance, but these flashes have been so few and far between that Michigan is unlikely to win either of their remaining games. On a positive note, the running back position received a jump start with Green, Smith, and Hayes.  Even though Toussaint was injured, it was clear that he cannot pass block.  At this point in the season, when the Wolverines have very little to play for, it is important to get the youngsters some playing time. Derrick Green is running with more power, and continues to show impressive footwork. DeVeon Smith has never struggled running hard, but his field vision has improved.  Justice Hayes came in for passing situations and showed a large improvement over the past 2 weeks. It will be interesting to see how much Fitz plays the rest of the season.

On the other side of the ball, the maize and blue defense continues to outplay the individual talent.  The offensive ineptitude has overshadowed how much the defense has improved throughout the season.  I considered this unit to be good but nowhere near elite, but after their performance these last three weeks I now think they are the second best unit in the conference.  No they don’t have elite playmakers, but they are a very good B1G defense. The Wolverines shut down the Wildcat attack on Saturday, and defended the option better than the week prior. Coach Mattison appears to trust his secondary more each week, which has allowed him to bring different blitzes. Michigan blitzed the most it has all season, and the pressure affected many throws. Northwestern didn’t score a touchdown until overtime, and the Wolverines didn’t force a turnover in regulation.  That qualifies as a dominant performance.

Top Performers:
James Ross
Cam Gordon
Frank Clark
Thomas Gordon
Derrick Green

Areas of Concern:
Offensive Line
Offensive play calling

Michigan stopped the 2 game losing streak with a very ugly win.  At this point it is clear this Wolverine team just isn’t as good as I once expected, so any win should be enjoyed. The remaining two weeks of the season will provide stiffer tests than Northwestern (and probably Nebraska). While the defense will continue to improve, and could even keep Michigan in both games, it is doubtful that the offense will be able to attack the opponent’s weaknesses.

Week 12: Northwestern Preview

These previews have become steadily more arduous to complete, and the team hasn’t been fun to watch for 2 months now. Yet, for some unknown reason here I am previewing one of the biggest pillow fights of conference play and planning my day around comfort food after another frustrating game.

Northwestern Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
Venric Mark is out for the year. If you remember last year’s game, Mark was the lead back in gashing the Michigan defense.  The Wildcats become less terrifying without him in the backfield. They still do have Treyvon Green who will allow Northwestern to keep the option running attack with Kain Coulter at quarterback.  The Wildcats will also deploy B1G-sized back Mike Trumpy for a change of pace. Michigan has been very good against the run this season, but have struggled under Coach Hoke in defending the option. Most of Nebraska’s limited success came from option pitches getting Abdullah to the edge.  It will be interesting to see if Wilson and Gordon reclaim their starting safety roles, because strong run support from the secondary will be needed.  Avery and Furman will get burned all game long. I think Michigan is able to hold Northwestern under their normal output, but Green or Coulter will still roll for at least one long run.  Advantage: Push

Northwestern Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
The Wildcats are not a passing team, and when they try it usually isn’t very successful. However, backup quarterback Trevor Siemian destroyed Michigan last year in Ann Arbor. Coulter is an extremely accurate passer, but the game plan consists of mainly screens and quick routes.  Teams have been successful at nickel and diming down the field against the Wolverine defense, but then have struggled in the red zone. Blake Countess should be back tomorrow, which will give Michigan the ability to play more press coverage.  Look for the Wolverine secondary to have a big game. I expect at least one interception, and possibly a 2^nd forced turnover out of this unit. Advantage: Michigan.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Northwestern Rush Defense
Northwestern’s rush defense is not much better than Nebraska’s, but falls right in the middle of the B1G. This is horrible news for Michigan because right now they have the disadvantage against the line of scrimmage, let alone an actual defense. I don’t expect much of the game plan to change for the Wolverines, so look for Fitz Toussaint and Derrick Green to run 8-12 times into stacked boxes.  If Devin is still able to move at all after being hit more than a punching bag the past two weeks, there should be chances for him to attack the Northwestern defense on the ground.  Even if Devin is able to find some room to run, it won’t make up for the monstrosity that is the Michigan rushing attack. Advantage: Northwestern

Michigan Pass Offense vs Northwestern Pass Defense
I should just copy parts of the last section.  Michigan has shown an inability to adjust on the fly to teams destroying their game plan. There is no doubt that Northwestern has watched film from the past two games, and there is no doubt that they will try blitzing linebackers more than they have all season. Even though the Wildcats drop back into a soft zone for the majority of the snaps, expect them to have success while bringing pressure. It will be important to see if the Wolverine’s passing routes have changed at all, or if Funchess and Gallon are just running slow developing deep routes all game. I expect the latter. This means Devin will have another dirt caked jersey, and spend most of his time looking up towards the heavens praying for the end of the football season.  Only 3 more games after tomorrow number 98, try to stay in one piece. Advantage: Northwestern

Like last week I will give the same disclaimer: Northwestern is not a good football team. They currently have not won a B1G game, and are somehow favorites against Michigan tomorrow. If Michigan has adjusted any part of their offensive game plan, the Wolverines should be able to score the needed 1 more point than the Wildcats. At this point, I have no doubts that Coach Borges and company have not.  It will be so much fun to watch this team run head first into brick walls in a rain storm.  Hurray for basketball. Northwestern 15 Michigan 8

B1G Week 12 Preview

Another week in the B1G is upon us, and that means 5 more games to sit back and laugh at how bad this conference is. 

Purdue @ Penn State 12:00pm
As bad as Penn State is this year, the Boilermakers are infinitely worse. Although Purdue was able to score 14 points against Iowa last week, they still have the worst offense in the conference. To complete the ineptitude, the Boilermaker defense is also among the worst in the B1G.  Look for Hackenberg to hook up with Allen Robinson over and over, and for the Belton/Zwinak combination to go over 180 yards. Penn State will roll in this one.

Indiana @ Wisconsin 12:00pm
The Hoosiers still have a potent offense, but Wisconsin has one of the better defenses they will face this season.  If you recall, Indiana managed to score 28 on Michigan State last month. The Badger defense is not as dominant as the Spartans, but they have the benefit of playing at home. On the other side of the ball, Indiana has one of the worst defenses in the nation and the Wisconsin running attack will have a field day.  Look for both Gordon and White to go over 100 yards, and the Badgers will likely top 50 points.  

Ohio State @ Illinois 12:00pm
And the Buckeye schedule gauntlet continues. Illinois hasn’t won a conference game in 2 years, and that will not continue tomorrow. Also, Urban Meyer has started to campaign for votes to move up in the BCS standings so look for him to keep the throttle open for all 60 minutes. This one will get ugly in a hurry.

Michigan State @ Nebraska 3:30pm
Even though this game is for the Legends Division crown I do not find it all that intriguing. Nebraska is not a good football team, period. Michigan State has had 2 weeks to prepare for the Huskers, and I expect them to do more with that time than either of Michigan’s off weeks. Nebraska struggled to score 17 points against a Michigan defense that played many freshmen and backups.  I would be shocked if they can score more than 10 points against the Spartans. On the other side, don’t be fooled by the Huskers ‘dominant’ defensive performance against Michigan. Their defense is still bad. Look for Michigan State to run for over 200 yards, and for Connor Cook to make some nice deep throws. Some reason the line here is only 6, and I would take that bet all day. Look for the Spartans to roll, and for this one to get ugly in the 4^th quarter.

Week 12 Upset Alert

After the impressive slate of games last week, college football slides back into a down week of scheduling. However, there are still multiple intriguing games where upsets could be lurking.

Washington @ #13 UCLA
After a string of tough losses, the Huskies seem to be the forgotten team in the Pac12.  On the flip side, the 2 loss UCLA team is still hoping for an outside shot at a BCS bowl.  This could be a roller coaster type game from two dynamic quarterbacks that are turnover prone. The Bruins have more to play for and are at home in this one, but Washington is a very good team with the pieces to win on the road. Look for Sankey to have a good day on the ground, which will shorten the game in the Huskies favor.  However, I think Price will make more mistakes than Hundley on the road which should allow the home team to escape with a close win.

#12 Oklahoma State @ #24 Texas
This is a very intriguing game. The Longhorns are still undefeated in Big 12 play, but Ok State is the overwhelming league favorite. Texas’ defense looked to be one of the worst in the country after two straight non-conference losses, but since then the unit has been upgraded to just bad. The Cowboys offense has not been as high powered as most expected before the season, but it still has enough weapons to rack up a lot of points on Texas. Since this game is played in Austin, I expect the Longhorns to keep the game close all the way through, but it will take multiple turnovers for Oklahoma State to not be able to outscore Texas.

#25 Georgia @ #7 Auburn
Yes, I continue to have Auburn on upset alert. Yes, I have seen what they have done each week when I have put them on upset alert. And yes, I am finally starting to buy into the Tigers. Before the season I thought that Georgia would be the only team able to compete with Alabama, and potentially keep them out of the National Championship Game. Then the injury bug hit, and hit hard. The Bulldogs still haven’t recovered fully.  They still have Aaron Murray, which keeps the upset hope alive.  I am not sold on Auburn’s defense, and a team that doesn’t turn the ball over should be able to score points. Tennessee was moving the ball well, but then coughed the ball up too many times (and couldn’t tackle on special teams). The young Bulldog defense will be tested in this game, as the Tigers will look to continue their dominating run offense. I have bought into the Auburn offense, and think both Marshall and Mason have big games Saturday afternoon.  However the defense leaves little to be desired, but I don’t think Murray has enough weapons around him to continue to score with Auburn.  The Tigers will likely pull away late in the 3^rd quarter, and win a high scoring game.

#4 Stanford @ USC
This game might seem like a long shot after Stanford imposed its will on Oregon for 45 minutes, and then let off the gas for one of college football’s most impressive wins of the season.  The Cardinal already fell in one trap game this year, so it is highly doubtful they stumble again.  USC has been playing much better since Lane Kiffin was fired, and still could win the Pac 12 South.  Stanford looks like the dominant team most expected in the preseason, and I don’t think they will lose again this year.  USC hangs with the Cardinal behind a big half from Silas Redd and Marqueise Lee, but Stanford’s ground and pound offense just wears down the Trojans depth-affected defense.

B1G Week 11 Recap

It is getting painfully obvious that we will be forced into a Michigan State vs Ohio State matchup for the B1G title. It is nearly equivalent to choosing between a Miguel Cabrera line drive in the groinal region or straight to the nose. Either choice is going hurt, and could leave lasting damage.

Good surprise:
I think the only thing that was a surprise was Oregon losing which gives Ohio State a little more hope to find their way into the BCS Championship Game. Yay for the conference getting embarrassed nationally, again.

Bad surprise:
Nebraska has one of the worst defenses in the entire country, yet their coordinator did his job and watched the Michigan State game film.  The Cornhuskers tried to replicate the Spartan game plan, and for some unknown reason the entire Michigan football team and staff let them.  Michigan State gave the country a blue print how to completely halt the Wolverine offense, and Nebraska accepted their offer. It is completely astonishing and embarrassing that Michigan still does not have any counters to 3 linebackers blitzing over 50% of plays. Even though the Wolverines weren’t really playing for much before the game, this was still one of the most frustrating outcomes. Luckily for the fans, we get to watch the giant pillow fight vs Northwestern this weekend. First team to crack positive rushing yards wins.

Outside of that, nothing around the conference surprised me.  The average teams have successfully separated themselves from the abysmal, and there are few upsets.

Week 11 conference rankings:
1. Ohio State (no change)
2. Wisconsin (no change)
3. Michigan State (no change)
4. Minnesota (up 4)
5. Nebraska (no change)
6. Iowa (up 1)
7. Michigan (down 3)
8. Penn State (down 2)
9. Indiana (no change)
10. Northwestern (no change)
11. Illinois (no change)
12. Purdue (no change)

Week 11: Nebraska Recap

 

Yup, this is as close as I can get to explaining whatever that was last Saturday.

 

Week 11: Nebraska Preview

The Wolverines successfully got dominated last week and have very little, outside of pride, to play for in these last 4 weeks. Nebraska comes to Ann Arbor as the only team in the Legends Division that can challenge MSU, but even that is an extremely low possibility.  I guess both teams are hoping to finish relatively strong to secure a New Year’s Day bowl.  

Nebraska Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The Huskers are led by one of the most productive backs in the country.  Ameer Abdullah is 6^th in the nation in rush yards, and he has a great yards per carry average. However, Taylor Martinez has been confirmed out for tomorrow and Nebraska’s offensive line is extremely beat up.  The Wolverines should be able to key on Abdullah all game and load the box with 8 guys much of the afternoon.  It will be interesting to see if Quinton Washington plays most of the snaps, or if the Wolverines decide to use a Nickel package much of the afternoon.  Look for Desmond Morgan and James Ross to reclaim the lead for most tackles.  Abdullah has been the focal point of every defensive plan since Martinez has been injured, yet somehow he manages to find yards and crack 100.  Michigan brings the best run defense that Nebraska has seen this year, but I think Abdullah will still find some yards. It will be important that the Wolverines do not give up back breaking scrambles to either backup quarterback. Advantage Michigan 

Nebraska Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
The Huskers started the season with the best receiving unit in the conference, but they roll into week 11 battered and broken like every other unit donning the red and white. Speedster Kenny Bell is unlikely to play tomorrow, and big-bodied Quincy Enunwa sat out plays last week against Northwestern.  If neither play Michigan could use an all freshmen secondary and still have the advantage. Both backup quarterbacks are a major step back from Martinez, and can be turnover prone. If Bell and Enunwa are able to play, the suspect quarterback play will be able to be bailed out on some errant throws. It will be interesting to see if Michigan mans up each cornerback for the game, because none of the freshman corners will be able to physically compete with the stronger Enunwa. He seems like the perfect matchup for Taylor. On the other hand, Bell is the downfield threat for the Huskers which seems like a good choice for Countess. Nebraska does not throw to tight ends very often, so the third cornerback might not be called on much.  Since both starting guards are out for tomorrow, and the remaining three guys have been injured at some point this season Nebraska’s pass protection has found their worst case scenario.  Frank Clark had one of his best games against Michigan State, and seems to be coming along very nicely. I expect him to have back to back impact games, but this time come away with at least one sack.  The new guards will likely struggle with Washington and Black, which should give both ends single coverage.  It will be interesting to see which defensive lineman draws the double team, because all four need to be able to beat the single block in front of them in this game. I expect at least one interception by the Wolverine defense, and multiple sacks. Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Nebraska Rush Defense
Well the Husker defense is one of the worst in the conference. On top of that they have experienced some injuries in the front seven.  They should get a chance to get healthy against the Wolverine ineptitude. Nebraska has two big bodies up the middle that the interior offensive line will again struggle with. Both defensive ends are better pass rushers than run stoppers, so Michigan will need to attack the edges. This can be done with the zone read and inverted veer runs.  If Devin was completely healthy and confident, this would be a game he could get to the second level at will. The problem is he probably still has nightmares of linebackers running unblocked and using his ribs like a trampoline. I expect him to be more hesitant and protective in the running game, which will leave Fitz to pick up yards. Toussaint has been left on his own most run attempts, and struggles to get to the line of scrimmage. While most teams rush for 150+ yards on Nebraska, Michigan should worry about just running forward this week. Advantage Nebraska.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Nebraska Pass Defense
For how bad the Husker defense has been this season, they do a reasonably good job of getting to the quarterback.  The added pressure has resulted in a lot of bad throws and interceptions for the defense. Nebraska is in the top half of the B1G is passing yards allowed per game. Where they really excel is in third down conversion rate.  Usually third downs are predictable passing plays, and the Huskers bring 1-3 extra rushers. This is particularly worrisome for Michigan because they seem to like going backwards on first and second downs, and then force Devin to make a play on third and long.  If the Wolverines can give Gardner any time and space to gain confidence and step into his throws he will pick apart the Husker defense.  I doubt this Michigan offensive line could stop the Care Bears from getting into the backfield. If the Wolverines can avoid third downs they can put up a lot of points, but if they are put in predictable downs it could spell another frustrating game. The Huskers do have two very good cornerbacks, but if routes have time to develop not many could stay with both Gallon and Funchess for 60 minutes. There will be opportunities in the passing game, both quick reads and down field. Advantage Push.

This preview is really frustrating because Nebraska is an average football team that has been devastated by injuries. The shell of the team that will take the field tomorrow is a borderline joke. Most years I would expect Michigan to dominate in all phases of this game and discard the Huskers like any of the conference bottom dwellers. The problem is that this Wolverine team has been the punch line of their own jokes for 2 months now.  This game will end up being a glorified pillow fight with the winner having an advantage for a January 1^st bowl (somehow).  Nebraska’s defense is bad, but their only strength will be able to exploit Michigan’s sieve of an offensive line. The Huskers might be able to exploit that mismatch enough to stay in the game.  If the Wolverines could execute a good game plan, this result would be lopsided by halftime.  Instead, Michigan will likely start slow and let Nebraska hang around. I fully expect the Wolverines to win this game, and even with all of the problems I think it will be a double digit win. However, after what I saw last week with 2 weeks to prepare I just do not feel right picking Michigan to win any game for the rest of the year.
Nebraska 21 Michigan 6.5 (3.5 for home field advantage)

B1G Week 11 Preview

For the 3 of you that still manage to sit through B1G games every week I give you my Week 11 conference preview.

Penn State @ Minnesota 12:00pm

The Nittany Lions are coming off of a home game where they should have lost to Illinois. The depth issues at Penn State are not going away, and will continue to get worse the rest of the season.  Minnesota is looking to win 4 straight conference games for the first time in my lifetime. Both teams are extremely flawed, which is par for the course in this conference. Penn State will look to Bill Belton to take away some pressure from Hackenberg, but I think the Gophers will do a good job of containing the running game. This will leave Hageman against the undersized and under talented Nittany Lion offensive line.  Hackenberg should be pressured most of the day, but has a very good bailout option in Allen Robinson.  Even though the entire TCF Bank Stadium knows where the pass is going, there hasn’t been a team this season that can completely shut it down.  On the other side, Philip Nelson continues to gain confidence at quarterback and Minnesota is showing signs of life. Running back Cobb has been one of the B1G’s best stories this season, and he will look to continue his 100 yard games.  Penn State should be able to move the ball in big chunks, but will likely struggle with consistency.  This should allow Minnesota to control the clock on the ground with both Nelson and Cobb.  Look for Nelson to hook up with Engel for a score, and the running attack to just be too much for the Nittany Lions to win on the road.

Iowa @ Purdue 12:00pm

The Boilermakers are just looking to score any points in this one. They are a 4^th quarter Hail Mary away from being shut out in 3 straight games. Purdue is looking like one of the worst B1G teams ever. While Iowa is far from great, they should roll into Ross Ade Stadium and continue Purdue’s embarrassment. I don’t think the Boilermakers will be shut out in this one, but I would be surprised if they scored twice.

Illinois @ Indiana 3:30pm

Let the battle to 100 begin.  Illinois and Indiana have the worst two defenses in the conference, and it isn’t even close. The Hoosiers have been able to put up points on every team they have faced this season, and they have yet to face a defense like the Illini.  Expect Indiana to top 50 points.  This puts a lot of pressure on Nathan Scheelhasse, and the Illinois offense. The orange and blue should be able to hang with Indiana for a while, but will likely have a few costly turnovers that lets Indiana win by multiple scores.

BYU @ Wisconsin 3:30pm

We get into November football and the marquee game of the week is a nonconference game. At least the basketball season starts tonight. BYU will provide a very stiff test for the Badgers who have this one final quality opponent to impress BCS voters. Both teams are better than their record, and both coaching staffs have a lot of experience with each other. Wisconsin is a little beat up which should allow the Cougars to hang around.  It looks unlikely that Abbrederis or Borland play in this one.  If that is the case, Stave will need to find another go to receiver which doesn’t happen overnight.  BYU is led by do-everything quarterback Taysom Hill, and look to control the clock with 2 100 ypg rushers. The loss of Borland will hurt Wisconsin’s defense, and will make it harder for them to get off the field on 3^rd and shorts.  However, Wisconsin has two potent rushers of their own and BYU has not seem running backs with this combination of speed and size. I think the Badgers will find a way to scrape out a win at home, but will be disappointed that their hopes of a BCS at-large are most likely gone without an impressive dominating win. Their rooting interest then will be anyway Ohio State can get into the top 2, and the Rose Bowl will want a B1G-Pac 12 matchup in this anniversary year.

Michigan Basketball Exhibition Game Notes

Michigan basketball will open their season tomorrow night after 2 exhibition games and weeks of practice. The Wolverines should again be in the B1G title discussion, and provide its fans with another memorable ride.  After watching 80 minutes of glorified scrimmages, I was able to glean a few bits of useful knowledge about the 2013-14 basketball team.

Let’s start with the encouraging aspects.  This Wolverine team has the ability to be a much better defensive unit.  It is still unclear how the new rule changes will affect B1G basketball, but I am confident that Michigan will adjust rather seamlessly.  The maize and blue had one of the lowest foul rates in America last season, which should carry over into this year. The Wolverines welcome two stellar defensive freshmen to the fold, and the source of many breakdowns last year (Stauskas and GRIII) are a year older. Michigan could pull out a lineup of LeVert – Stauskas – Irvin – Robinson III – McGary. Super athletic 2’s will be able to attack Nik, but the extreme length on the court will be able to stymie any dribble penetration. I would expect this lineup to get more use in the B1G, especially against teams that want to slow down the pace against Michigan.  I’m looking at you Ohio State and Wisconsin.

This team can shoot.  Yes, replacing Trey and Tim is going to be a challenge, and yes this team will have its fair share of growing pains. However, one thing that Coach Beilein has said is the three point line is the great equalizer, and this team can shoot. Everyone knows about Stauskas’ spot up ability, but then add in a more confident LeVert, GRIII, Albrecht, and two elite freshmen shooters Walton and Irvin. This team can pencil in 30 points from behind the equality line.

The natural thought process to stop Michigan shooters then will be to close out the 3 point line hard. The problem here is that the Wolverines are just as comfortable attacking the hoop. LeVert and GRIII will get more points from the paint and free throw line than from deep. Nik has bulked up, which has already improved his ability to absorb contact. Then throw in freshman manchild Irvin to the mix, and the Wolverines are going to challenge opponent’s interior defense.

The 2013-14 Wolverines best ability might be their passing game. When Mitch is slotted as the center, Michigan will have 5 guys who are comfortable setting up teammates. Derrick Walton is a pass first point guard, who already excels in setting up wings in the fast break. Nik and Caris are already better than Tim Hardaway in the pick and roll game.  According to the coaching staff, Glenn led the team in assists during practice. Top this group off with Mitch McGary who can cripple teams at the high post and is the best outlet passer in college basketball since Kevin Love. This is going to result in a lot of open looks and easy baskets. The Wolverines should push 20 team assists most nights.

Of course, I need to temper my excitement with a few questions that this squad needs to answer over the course of the season.  The most glaring is Mitch McGary.  When will he come back? How effective will he be? How long will it take for him to get back into game shape? Will the back issue limit him all season? The coaching staff and Mitch have been very optimistic regarding the injury, even if it has left the rest of us in the dark.  Coach Beilein told Sports Illustrated that they have a timeline for his return, and Mitch is right on pace. This makes me believe that when the Vanilla Gorilla is cleared to play, the back is not expected to be a lingering issue.  Everyone wants him full go in time for the Puerto Rico tournament or at least when the team travels to Duke, but championships are not won in November and December. Since this injury will likely keep big number 4 off the floor for some time, don’t expect Michigan to duplicate the 16-0 start from last season. 

The 2 bigs lineup that has started both exhibition games do not work.  It is not that the Wolverines are just less effective in this set, this lineup doesn’t work, period. Jordan Morgan can defend some 4’s, but not many and his offensive inability limits Michigan’s rhythm and efficiency.  Both Horford and Morgan are pigeon-holed centers, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing it just means that they cannot be interchanged like the wings.  The 2 bigs lineup needs to be shelved until McGary comes back because he is the only player on the roster that can excel at either post position.  Horford saw the majority of the minutes in both exhibition games, but I expect Morgan to be in the starting lineup tonight.

It is going to be quite a year for the basketball season. Competing for the B1G regular season title and making the second weekend of the tournament are realistic expectations for this team with or without Mitch McGary.  Once, or if, the big guy comes back and is in game shape the Wolverines should pass the Spartans as the conference’s Final Four favorite.

Week 11 Upset Alert

Last week ended the streak of many ranked teams being upset, but still left Texas Tech on the losing end for the second straight week.  This week has 3 marquee games that I will dive into first and also many games where ranked teams could be challenged.

#10 Oklahoma vs #6 Baylor
As I have mentioned before, I don’t think Oklahoma is that good.  I have put them in my upset post twice, and have been rewarded once.  The Sooners just appear to be an average team that does nothing on an elite level.  Baylor on the other hand might have a better offense than Oregon.  They play at one of the fastest tempos in the game and are led by future NFL-ers at all skill positions.  The Sooners are lucky to be ranked number 10, but I don’t think that sticks after tonight. The Bearcats will likely run Oklahoma out of Floyd Casey Stadium.  Look for Seastrunk to get over 1,000 yards for the season, and Petty to connect with Goodley for at least one score.

#3 Oregon vs #5 Stanford
The Ducks head to Stanford for the most anticipated Pac12 game of the season.  This game would have a lot more national interest if the Cardinal managed to escape Utah. Even so, the matchup is only the 2^nd of the season between two top 5 teams.  While Stanford might be the true number 5 team in the country, I think there is a Grand Canyon size gap after the top 3 teams in the nation.  DeAnthony Thomas has said that the Ducks should be able to score 40 points on the Cardinal to keep their at least 35 point streak alive.  After watching Oregon some this year, I am forced to agree with him.  Stanford is good, but they are not the elite team we have seen in the past few years. The defense is still tops in the Pac 12, but it is beatable.  Oregon will use the full width of the field to exploit their speed advantage. Look for Mariota to throw his name back on top of the Heisman race. The Ducks should be able to pull away in the second half with a comfortable win on the road, which should push them back to number 2 in the BCS.

#13 LSU vs #1 Alabama
This game is again one of the most anticipated SEC matchups of the season.  Even though both teams have replaced a lot from their overwhelmingly talented rosters, LSU and Alabama are two of the best teams in the country.  The Tide is using their usual path to success, an overlooked offense and stifling aggressive defense. However, LSU’s defense is not full of players that will be drafted next year and they are led by Zach Mettenberger at quarterback.  While Alabama showed its youth against Texas A&M, the mistakes will be fixed Saturday night. The Tiger offense will not be able to score 40+ points on the road against the Tide.  On the other side, look for TJ Yeldon to have a big game against the LSU front seven and for AJ McCarron to lead his team to another legacy defining win.

#9 Aubrun vs Tennessee
The Volunteers play the number 9 ranked team in the country for the second straight week, and I am going to keep them in the upset alert. Auburn is completely one dimensional at this point in the season with their running spread attack, yet nobody has been able to stop it.  Tennessee has the personal to force the Tigers into more passing downs than their past opponents. Auburn will still score their points behind Marshall and Mason, but the Vols should be able to keep them under 30.  This will give Worley and company a small chance to pull off their 2^nd top 10 upset of the season.

Virginia Tech vs #11 Miami
Even though the polls had the Canes ranked in the top 10 last week, they had no chance to knock off the superior Noles. This week they return home for another familiar rival. Virginia Tech is coming off of a two embarrassing losses to Boston College and Duke. Logan Thomas makes more mistakes than some first year starters, and most of them are unforced errors. My opinion of Miami still hasn’t changed, they are an average team (like Oklahoma) that doesn’t do anything on an elite level.  Yet, due to the very down college football season have found themselves around the top 10.  The Hokies could have already packed up the season, but I think Coach Beamer’s team has one surprise left up their sleeve. Look for Thomas to play up to the competition, and keep this game closer than expected.

Houston vs #21 UCF
The Golden Knights are one of the Cinderella stories this season, and along with Northern Illinois are in perfect position to be a BCS bowl option.  They really jumped on the radar after traveling to Happy Valley to beat Penn State in what was considered an upset at the time, and then they burst into BCS contention after beating Louisville. Houston has continued their high powered passing attack even after Coach Sumlin moved on.  They are led by freshman quarterback O’Korn who is completing 65% of his passes. Both teams are able to put points up on the board, but the Golden Knights also have a stiff defense.  If they are able to rattle the freshman signal caller, UCF could pull away and control the clock on the ground.  I think O’Korn will make plays to keep the Cougars in the game for at least 3 quarters. If you want to see Northern Illinois get mauled like goat from Jurassic Park in another BCS bowl, then root for Houston to pull the upset.  

B1G Week 10 Recap

I started this with the B1G standings, and it is really sad that Michigan remains at number 4 after getting completely and utterly dominated in every phase of the game last weekend. This year the conference is the big 3 and little 9.  I can only cringe when thinking about this bowl season.  It might be worse than last year, which is something I didn’t think I would ever say.

Good surprise:
Minnesota’s offense is better than Indiana’s defense. I didn’t expect that to happen. The Gophers accumulated 573 yards of offense, and looked dominant for the majority of the game.  While the Gophers will likely struggle to move the ball against Wisconsin and Michigan State, they will have a good chance to get to 8 wins this week and be completely overmatched in a New Year’s Day bowl.

While Iowa is far from an elite team, Wisconsin was able to completely stifle the Hawkeye attack without their best defender. A Wisconsin/ Michigan State matchup would be one of the most intriguing games of the season. Too bad we won’t get to see it this year.

Bad surprise:
Yes, the good surprises were non-existent last week. Luckily there were enough terrible performances to make a post. Let’s start with the entire Nebraska/Northwestern game. The Huskers moved the ball at will against the Wildcats, even without Taylor Martinez. However, the backup quarterbacks managed to turn the ball over 4 times.   Nebraska’s defense barely fared better against the depleted Northwestern offense. The game was a complete mess for all 60 minutes, finally ending with a Hail Mary that should have been knocked down by the Wildcats. And that folks is the last team that can really challenge Michigan State for an Indianapolis trip. If I were a Spartan fan I would book my trip now.

Purdue continues their march towards being the worst B1G team EVER. They failed to score for the 2^nd straight game, and haven’t run a single play in the red zone since September. They did however manage to get to 50 before Ohio State. The Buckeyes finished with 56 points, but Purdue moved the ball at will for 116 yards. That deserves a giant drum beat.  I don’t know about you, but I cannot contain my excitement for that Purdue/ Illinois showdown. 

I could throw in the Indiana defense here, but c’mon were you really surprised they gave up 42 points to one of the worst offenses in the country? Yeah, me either. Maybe the bad surprise should be that the offense couldn’t score 50 on the Gophers.

Finally, I will add the entire Penn State/Illinois game. Luckily for us Michigan fans, the Wolverines got curb stomped all afternoon Saturday because if they managed to win, the loss to Penn State would be even more frustrating and embarrassing than it already is. The Nittany Lions managed to escape, at home, against an Illini team that has one of the longest conference losing streaks in the modern era. Penn State is a terrible team that just got out-terribled. Words cannot begin to explain the gut-wrenching awfulness of this conference, when Penn State rounds out the top half. So I decided to make up my own word, but even that puts the B1G in a better light than deserved. Thankfully it is basketball season!

Week 10 conference rankings:
1. Ohio State (no change)
2. Wisconsin (no change)
3. Michigan State (no change)
4. Michigan (no change)
5. Nebraska (up 1)
6. Penn State (down 1)
7. Iowa (up 1)
8. Minnesota (up 1)
9. Indiana (down 2)
10. Northwestern (no change)
11. Illinois (no change)
12. Purdue (no change)