Thursday, November 7, 2013

Week 11 Upset Alert


Last week ended the streak of many ranked teams being upset, but still left Texas Tech on the losing end for the second straight week.  This week has 3 marquee games that I will dive into first and also many games where ranked teams could be challenged.

#10 Oklahoma vs #6 Baylor
As I have mentioned before, I don’t think Oklahoma is that good.  I have put them in my upset post twice, and have been rewarded once.  The Sooners just appear to be an average team that does nothing on an elite level.  Baylor on the other hand might have a better offense than Oregon.  They play at one of the fastest tempos in the game and are led by future NFL-ers at all skill positions.  The Sooners are lucky to be ranked number 10, but I don’t think that sticks after tonight. The Bearcats will likely run Oklahoma out of Floyd Casey Stadium.  Look for Seastrunk to get over 1,000 yards for the season, and Petty to connect with Goodley for at least one score.

#3 Oregon vs #5 Stanford
The Ducks head to Stanford for the most anticipated Pac12 game of the season.  This game would have a lot more national interest if the Cardinal managed to escape Utah. Even so, the matchup is only the 2nd of the season between two top 5 teams.  While Stanford might be the true number 5 team in the country, I think there is a Grand Canyon size gap after the top 3 teams in the nation.  DeAnthony Thomas has said that the Ducks should be able to score 40 points on the Cardinal to keep their at least 35 point streak alive.  After watching Oregon some this year, I am forced to agree with him.  Stanford is good, but they are not the elite team we have seen in the past few years. The defense is still tops in the Pac 12, but it is beatable.  Oregon will use the full width of the field to exploit their speed advantage. Look for Mariota to throw his name back on top of the Heisman race. The Ducks should be able to pull away in the second half with a comfortable win on the road, which should push them back to number 2 in the BCS.

#13 LSU vs #1 Alabama
This game is again one of the most anticipated SEC matchups of the season.  Even though both teams have replaced a lot from their overwhelmingly talented rosters, LSU and Alabama are two of the best teams in the country.  The Tide is using their usual path to success, an overlooked offense and stifling aggressive defense. However, LSU’s defense is not full of players that will be drafted next year and they are led by Zach Mettenberger at quarterback.  While Alabama showed its youth against Texas A&M, the mistakes will be fixed Saturday night. The Tiger offense will not be able to score 40+ points on the road against the Tide.  On the other side, look for TJ Yeldon to have a big game against the LSU front seven and for AJ McCarron to lead his team to another legacy defining win.

#9 Aubrun vs Tennessee
The Volunteers play the number 9 ranked team in the country for the second straight week, and I am going to keep them in the upset alert. Auburn is completely one dimensional at this point in the season with their running spread attack, yet nobody has been able to stop it.  Tennessee has the personal to force the Tigers into more passing downs than their past opponents. Auburn will still score their points behind Marshall and Mason, but the Vols should be able to keep them under 30.  This will give Worley and company a small chance to pull off their 2nd top 10 upset of the season.

Virginia Tech vs #11 Miami
Even though the polls had the Canes ranked in the top 10 last week, they had no chance to knock off the superior Noles. This week they return home for another familiar rival. Virginia Tech is coming off of a two embarrassing losses to Boston College and Duke. Logan Thomas makes more mistakes than some first year starters, and most of them are unforced errors. My opinion of Miami still hasn’t changed, they are an average team (like Oklahoma) that doesn’t do anything on an elite level.  Yet, due to the very down college football season have found themselves around the top 10.  The Hokies could have already packed up the season, but I think Coach Beamer’s team has one surprise left up their sleeve. Look for Thomas to play up to the competition, and keep this game closer than expected.

Houston vs #21 UCF
The Golden Knights are one of the Cinderella stories this season, and along with Northern Illinois are in perfect position to be a BCS bowl option.  They really jumped on the radar after traveling to Happy Valley to beat Penn State in what was considered an upset at the time, and then they burst into BCS contention after beating Louisville. Houston has continued their high powered passing attack even after Coach Sumlin moved on.  They are led by freshman quarterback O’Korn who is completing 65% of his passes. Both teams are able to put points up on the board, but the Golden Knights also have a stiff defense.  If they are able to rattle the freshman signal caller, UCF could pull away and control the clock on the ground.  I think O’Korn will make plays to keep the Cougars in the game for at least 3 quarters. If you want to see Northern Illinois get mauled like goat from Jurassic Park in another BCS bowl, then root for Houston to pull the upset.  

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