Purdue preview

For Michigan to continue their current winning streak, finish an undefeated home schedule, and beat Purdue on senior night the Wolverines will have to key on two players: Lewis Jackson and Robbie Hummel.  Jackson is the catalyst that gets teammates good shots, and Hummel is the biggest threat to single handedly win a game for Purdue.

The first time these two teams met, Trey Burke struggled a lot with the speedy Jackson.  He was unable to keep him in front of him consistently, and Jackson’s quickness halted a lot of dribble drives.  For Michigan to control the tempo, they will need to find a way to control Jackson.  It will be interesting to see Michigan’s game plan with Hummel.  Will they try to switch on every ball screen like they did Tuesday night against Northwestern, or will they let Novak man up with the 5^th year senior.  I think Michigan will try a combination of both, possibly along with some 2-3 zone in there.  Hummel will get his 15-20 points on most nights, the key here though is to keep him under 20.  He cannot explode and keep an undermanned Purdue team in the game.  Purdue has been lacking much of an inside presence all season, so Hummel will look to do some work on the blocks while Novak is matched up with him.  Purdue also has Ryne Smith, their lone sniper from distance.  He missed some open looks in the first game, but this should not be counted on.  Hardaway and Stu will have to close out quickly when he gets the ball.  Force him to drive inside as much as possible.  You don’t want any part of this dude when he gets into a rhythm.  He is as lethal as anyone from our team, but he does so by running off of screens not just set jumpers. 

Offensively, Michigan should look to attack with Morgan as much as possible.  Purdue is limited in big man depth.  Hummel will need to guard Morgan during stretches of the game, and these times are essential for getting Morgan involved.  Making Hummel play defense will tire him out, and possible get him into foul trouble.  If that happens, Michigan should be able to expand their lead.  Burke will have to play within himself tomorrow night and not force too many drives against the quicker defender.  Since Jackson is so small, he has no chance of slowing down the pick and roll offense by switching onto the post player.  Michigan will have to use this against the Boilers.  Hummel will not be able to hedge out as far, knowing that Jackson is fun sized. Again, this is a game where Hardaway will have the athletic advantage.  Will he play within himself like last weekend, or will he fall back into being a highly inefficient scorer?  Purdue is consistently one of the best defensive teams in the league, but lately they have given up over 75 points to MSU and OSU.  Michigan will be able to score the ball tomorrow with some good ball movement, and not relying on the 3 point shot like on Tuesday.  Purdue will likely settle back into a 2-3 zone of its own during stretches of the game, and tempt Michigan to launch early threes.

Michigan is more talented of a team, they are playing with some confidence after 4 straight conference wins, and they are still playing for a B1G regular season title.  The wolverines have more to play for tomorrow, but Robbie Hummel knows how to win ball games.  I have a feeling this game will be closer than it needs to be during most of the game, but I think Big Blue has enough leadership and athletes to make enough plays to pull the game out.  Plus, the seniors are going to want to go out on a high note.  Michigan 71 Purdue 63

Go Blue!

A peek at the B1G standings

I wanted to take another look at the current B1G standings and look forward to the B1G tournament and possible matchups.  Iowa had the biggest week of anyone so far, and if they wouldn’t have blown so many early non-conference games in December this team would likely be on the good side of the bubble.  They knocked off Wisconsin for the second time this season behind the hot shooting of Gatens, and they smoked Indiana over the weekend.  They currently sit at 7-8 in the conference, and would likely need to win out and then a game or two in the tourney to make the selection committee interested in the Hawkeyes. 

The current standings:

MSU                                      12-3

OSU/ Michigan                  11-4

Wisconsin                            9-6

Indiana/ Purdue               8-7

Iowa                                      7-8

NW                                        6-9

Minnesota/ Illinois          5-10

Nebraska/ PSU                 4-11

Michigan State controls its own fate on the road to a regular season championship.  But, they still have 2 tough games left on the schedule.  After they dispose of Nebraska, they have to go on the road to Indiana, and then finish at home against the Bucknuts.  They could easily go 1-2 in this stretch and take themselves out of the title tie.  If they lose next week to Indiana, the pressure builds exponentially for the season finale.  As much as I would like to see State lose those last 2 games, I can’t really see them losing any.  They are on another nice winning streak right now, and are playing some of the best basketball in the nation.  OSU has the talent to beat them, but they have building a new tattoo parlor with all of their bricks in the last few games. IU is very tough at home, but it depends on which IU team shows up for the game.  A win vs MSU will help their seeding for the tourney, but I see Tom Izzo taking care of his little buddy Tom Crean again. 

We all know about Michigan’s schedule, it is the easiest of anyone in the top 3.  They have senior night against Purdue tomorrow night, and then finish the season with 2 road games against Illinois and Penn St.  Purdue is a different team away from Mackey Arena, but they are no slouch.  They would like another quality win to end the season to solidify their tournament hopes.  More of the preview later.  Michigan has not won at Illinois since 1997.  Even though they are in a free fall right now, and Bruce Weber looks about as lame duck as they get, winning in Assembly Hall is always tough.  The Penn St finale is one of those must win games.  Michigan will need to win out to keep pace with the two big dogs in the conference.

Ohio State hosts Wisconsin, goes to Northwestern and Michigan St to end the season.  This might be the toughest remaining 3 games of anyone in the conference.  Wisconsin seemed to sleep walk through most of the Iowa game, and when they did start playing Gatens wouldn’t miss a shot.  It will be interesting to see which Wisconsin team shows up in C-bus this weekend.  They are capable of pulling off the upset, but it is unlikely.  Northwestern needs to win out to even have a hope for their first NCAA tourney bid.  They will play tough at home, but Northwestern just does not have the big bodies to corral Sullinger.  At Michigan St will be a great way to complete the conference season.  OSU will be looking for revenge after getting physically dominated on their home floor, but Michigan St still has not lost at home.  I think Draymond Green will make it very difficult for OSU to win this game and spoil his day. 

Wisconsin should be able to finish off the year 2-1, since they go to OSU then are at home against Minnesota and Illinois.  This will likely put them in 4^th place by themselves.  IU has to go to Minnesota who is still fighting for a tournament bid, and needs some quality wins. Then they are home against MSU and Purdue.  They are capable of losing all 3 of these games, but will likely lose at least 1.  It will be a battle with Purdue for that 5^th seed.  I think IU will finish 1-2, and 9-9 in the conference.  Purdue has two very tough road games at Michigan and IU, so the Hoosier battle to end the season will likely decide the 5^th place seed.  I would rather play Wisconsin in the 2^nd round than OSU/MSU/ U-M.  Iowa could even win out this season with games at Illinois, Nebraska, and home against NW.  They have a decent shot at pulling up with a 5^th place tie in the conference.  I am not sure who would own the tie breaker at that point.

It seems likely that the top 3 seeds will be (in some order) MSU, Michigan, and OSU.  Then the 4^th place race comes down to Wisconsin, IU, and Purdue, and to a lesser extent Iowa.  Northwestern will likely be the 8^th seed playing Minnesota or Illinois in the first round.  I think they will get the chance to play MSU in the second, as the 1 seed.  Michigan has a good chance at revenge against Iowa in the second round if they can get past Illinois.  Then OSU will likely get to face Purdue again in the second round. 

A lot can happen in the last 2 weeks of the regular season and B1G tourney, but all I can say is that I cannot wait for the events to unfold!  J

Spring Training... baseball how I missed you!

Pitchers and catchers have reported to camp, which means the wait for Opening Day 2012 is getting smaller.  This year the Tigers come in as the Vegas favorites to win a World Series. 

From the reports that I have heard, Rick Porcello has looked great in this offseason and may be able to show some improvement this year.  Apparently last season he was injured in the off season and was not able to work on his endurance and conditioning as much as he would have liked.  This year there is no such problem.  While he does not have the electric stuff that Verlander has, 15-17 wins from Rick would be pretty special.   His ERA will likely stay around the same this year since the Tigers will enter opening day as the worst fielding team in the league.  Being a ground ball, sinker ball, pitcher Rick might need to develop another secondary pitch to record more strike outs this season.  It would be a good improvement if Rick could consistently pitch deep into games this season. 

Some advanced metrics predicted that Verlander would go 17-12 this year with a 3.01 ERA.  While he did set the bar extremely high after last season, I just cant see that big of a step back this season.  With the impressive offense the Tigers will put to the plate this season, a 3.01 ERA should not result in 12 losses.  I would be really surprised if JV was worse than 17-8 with a 3.00 ERA. 

Most people are predicting the biggest step back in the rotation to come from Doug Fister this season.  He is unlikely to continue his hot streak while in Detroit.  Last season he ended the year with an 8-1 record and a 1.75 ERA while sporting the old English D.  He is also a sinker ball pitcher that will make our suspect infield work for outs, but he was able to record more strike outs that Porcello could last season.  I think Fister is one of those under the radar pitchers that nobody is talking about this off season.  Detroit won the AL Central easily last season, and a big reason was because of Doug’s second half.  what would it look like this year when we get him for all 30+ starts. I think Fister will likely get to 15 wins this season.

I don’t know what to think about Max Scherzer, but he has the pitching ability to become a very good 3^rd starter.  I think it will be important for him to improve his endurance to get his inning totals up this season.  Our bullpen is very good at the back end, but the middle relief is still a question mark coming into this new year.  Any extra out we can record from the starters will be very important.  Max will likely be a roller coaster again this year.  He will undoubtedly have the one game where he looks unhittable and has about 10 strike outs and gives up 1 run, but these starts need to begin to outweigh the ones where he drops a stink pickle on the mound and gets pulled after 3 innings or so.  I can’t see his ERA being much less than 4.00 this season, and actually that would be a pretty good improvement for him.  If he can reduce the amount of walks he gives up, I think that will have a direct correlation to his ERA.  Another 15 win season would be a very good season this year, but I can only see him getting 12-15 this year. 

The 5^th starter is again a big question this year.  At this point it seems like a sure thing that Detroit is going to move forward with one of their prospects, at least to begin the season.  Depending on what happens in spring training, the race seems down to three guys, Justin Turner, Andy Oliver, and Drew Smyly.  I think Smyly will likely get the first crack at holding down the roster spot because he is a more polished pitcher at this point and is a lefty, something the Tigers have not had for a while. Justin Turner is the better prospect with a higher ceiling right now, but he has not developed his secondary pitches enough yet.  I definitely think Turner will get more starts this season though, and might even be the 5^th starter by the end of the year.  I like the idea of trying out young talent.  I know Brad Penny did ok in this spot last year, but he was the definition of average.  At least by letting these young guys get a crack, fans will be more intrigued to see these guys than the Bartender.  If the Tigers get 10 wins out of this pitchers spot, they will likely have a similar record to last season. 

Regardless of what happens, spring training is here.  Opening day less than 2 months away.  Memorial Day at Fenway Park only 3 months away.  Baseball is back!!!! Eat em up Tigers!

What is wrong with the NBA?

Listening to the radio the other day, a question was brought up about how to improve the NBA.  Personally, I think the NBA is worst of the 4 major professional sports leagues, and offers very little excitement or reason for me personally watching.  Yes, the players are extremely athletic, and they make incredible plays look incredibly easy.  But it does not offer the entertainment that other sports can.  There are no hated rivalries (Bird vs Magic), there are no coaching masterminds (Belichek, LaRussa, Babcock), there really is no sport.  The competition is pathetic, and each game seems more like an exhibition than the last.

 The thing that probably most upsets me is how much EACH player whines to the refs about someone looking at them wrong… oops, should be a foul.  I mean, come on, the NBA refs have taken away half of the rules already and yet the players still find a need to complain?  Watch a B1G college basketball game, and then really see if you have reason to complain.  A few weeks ago during the MSU vs OSU game, Tom Izzo’s strategy on Sullinger was to get into his head at all costs.  He threw big guy after big guy at him, and as he went up for every shot, the MSU player would hit his left arm.  It technically doesn’t affect the shot, but since the refs called it 1 time the entire game, it made Sullinger try to play against the refs instead of MSU.  This sort of thing happens in each B1G game, refs let physical play go.  The refs in the NBA let players get away with a 3.5 steps without calling travels, if you get fouled at the three point line take 2 more steps then shoot the ball and somehow it is continuation and a 2 shot foul (WHAAAAAAAAT?!?!?!), every single point guard carries the ball constantly, and if you are lucky enough to be one of the NBA’s players of the week… you have the refs in your back pocket.  Enjoy getting every call and being able to shoot 10-15 free throws in each game. 

If you take a look at the other professional sports transitions from college, minors, etc.  Each sport gets harder for the athletes.  College football cannot compare to the physicality of NFL, each tackle is like a car crash.  The players are bigger, faster, and stronger.  An “open” receiver in the NFL would be considered blanketed in college.  MLB seems to continue to make the strike zone smaller, outfields bigger… oh yea and they use wooden bats people.  Yet, the NBA thinks adding a couple feet to the 3 point line is a good substitute.  I get so sick of these privileged athletes complaining more to the refs than just trying to play basketball, that the NBA is unwatchable.  How about you enjoy playing a game that you are getting paid well for (and if you weren’t playing the majority of these guys don’t have an education or a back up plan), shut up, and just compete against your opponent and not the refs.  Some games it almost feels like it’s the two teams against the refs, this is the main competition.  I don’t want to waste 3 hours of my night to watch this crap.  If I want to see someone complain to the refs I will watch an  MSU game. 

Probably the biggest crapshoot in the NBA is the draft.  If you are an NFL team , regardless of your drafting position you are likely to get at least 2 eventual starters in each draft (whether its your first 2 round picks or a diamond in the rough).  In the NBA, some teams in the top 10 get a player that will barely ever see the floor (Darko, Hasheem Thabeet, Kwame Brown, etc).  Of the 60 draft picks each year, only about 20 of them pan out as a legit NBA player.  This is ridiculous.  Something is wrong with the system.  When bad teams are supposed to get the best player, yet they have a 1/3 chance of getting someone to contribute.  I personally think that the NBA should do away with the mandatory 1 year college rule (either change it to 2 years like NFL or just take it away).  If a player doesn’t want to go to college, they should be able to enter the NBA draft and get paid a similar amount to a European player (40-50k).  They should be entered into a sort of minor league system, whether that’s the D-league or something new.  Then if you choose to go to college, then I think it should be mandatory to stay at least 2 years.  After either 2 years in the D-league or 2 years in college, then another NBA draft will happen.  This will give the teams the ability to look at all of these European unknowns play against like competition and see if they are really any good.  I think this will at least give each NBA team a legit shot at getting an instant player in the first round of each draft.  Right now so many teams are bad (Pistons and Cavs for example), but they are also so young.  The entire NBA franchise will have to grow along with these inexperienced project players (Monroe and Knight).  Since they have invested so much money into these guys, they have to see the floor even if it doesn’t give the team the best chance of winning each night.  So the current system in the NBA is really unable to improve teams through the draft like every other league can.  Bad teams will continue to be bad until one of their draft picks is 2-3 years in the league… or they pick up a key free agent.  Look at the Pistons run of 6 straight Eastern Conference Finals.  Who was drafted by the team, and who was picked up through trades or free agency?  Prince was drafted.  Billups, Wallace, Wallace, Hamilton all picked up the latter.  The only team right now in the entire NBA that has built a franchise based from the draft is the OKC Thunder, because they had 3 top 10 picks in 2 years. Along with 2 more high draft picks in the surrounding years. This makes up the core of their team Also they got lucky that Portland passed on Durant and took Oden first.  There is a lot wrong with the NBA, and I doubt it will ever get corrected.  Right now it seems like a bad organization from the top down, and sometimes with badly run companies it is best to just let nature take its course and the company to go out of business.

1 down....3 more to go!

Every championship team needs to pull out an ugly win or two throughout the season, and last night was another one of those games for Michigan.  After the first 10 minutes of play, last night’s game is one where 90% of people would have restarted it on their PS3.  In just under 6 minutes Morgan and Smot had accumulated 2 fouls each and were exiled to the bench for the rest of the half.  Novak had also picked up a cheap foul, and the refs seemed like they were supposed to be at a Big East game rather than at a real basketball game. Hardaway is even more of a head case than I could have imagined by missing free throw after free throw, then trying to get back into the game by forcing up bad shot after bad shot. Novak had his worst 2 halves of basketball this year, and then McLimans continued his streak of rebound-less basketball (which is up to 38 minutes now).  But this was real life, and the reset button was not allowed.  I thought if Michigan could keep the game within 5 at the half they would come out and win the game pretty easily.  The final score looks like an easier win than what happened in the 2^nd. 

Michigan was ahead 11-3 before Morgan got his second foul of the half, and in the last 14+ minutes we were outscored 28 to 13.  The offense had absolutely no rhythm, since Tim was a hazard to himself and the team with how much he was trying to think out there, Vogrich and Stu just wanted to stand in a spot and become jump shooters, Mclimans… enough said, Novak couldn’t find free tattoos if he was in Columbus (or an angry leprechaun if he was in East Lansing… that’s a Tom Izzo joke people).  This left Burke by himself to break down the 1-3-1 zone, which he looked more like a freshman than he has most of the season.  Northwestern has the worst interior defense in the conference, yet the ball barely went inside of the 3 point line.  Michigan shot 38 threes (Guiness book of world records?) and only 18 twos for the entire game.  they almost shot 1 three per minute.  What a joke.  On the defensive end, Michigan switched on every screen which confused Northwestern for much of the game.  Shurna ended up with 5 2^nd chance points at the end of the 1^st half to get to 10 points overall.  He ended up with 14, 6 below his average.  Northwestern is also one of the worst overall rebounding teams in the nation, especially on the offensive end.  Yet, at halftime they had come away with 8 offensive boards.  Does McLimans just run from the ball, how can a 6’11” guy not be able to get 1.  I honestly don’t know how this is even possible.  The Wolverines went to the break down 31 to 24 even though they couldn’t play any worse.

I would guess most fans were pretty positive at the beginning of the 2^nd half since Morgan and Smot were able to come back on the floor and McLimans had his seat back.  Michigan immediately went to work and began whiddling down the deficit.  They got back into the game within the first 3 minutes of the half with some good defense that resulted in some open shots for the offense.  More importantly they did not give up 2^nd chance points.  Then over the next 10 minutes the game was just pretty ugly.  I got the impression Beilein (or Novak) lit them up a little at half time, so they came out with urgency.  Since Northwestern did not look even close to as good last night as they did in AA, overcoming 7 points was not that difficult.  Once Michigan got within a possession, the game became a stalemate.  We continued to jack up 3 after 3, and Northwestern kept being offensively inept.  Then after 2 straight turnovers with around 5 minutes to play and a garbage 5-0 run by the purple people eaters, Michigan looked like they were put out of their misery.  Beilein called a timeout, and maybe they remembered playing for a B1G championship.  They came out with more fire and actually attacked the 1-3-1 zone.  They got into the lane, and caused all 5 defenders to crash the paint.  This resulted in WIDE OPEN shooters (even more than they were for the rest of the game).  Within 2 possessions, big Blue was back in the lead.  From there it seemed likely to win the game in regulation, but Michgan could not finish the Wildcats off. NW even had the ball during a tied game with 1 minute left (where they got 2 shots off and missed both badly).  With 24 seconds left, it seemed probable that someone for Michigan would hit the game winner, but nope they wanted to play 5 more minutes.

Overtime came and was over in the first 2 minutes.  After an empty possession for each team to begin the extra frame, Michigan made 3 triples in a row.  The best one being the first, where Novak missed another open look but hustled to get the rebound as it went out of bounds.  He threw it off Hearn’s face and recovered the reflection in bounds.  This led to a pass to the top of the key for Burke to knock down the shot.  Northwestern scored 18 points in the 2^nd half, and Michigan scored 18 points in the 5 minute OT.  Novak was the best player on the floor during this extra time, doing everything possible to make this had a chance of a banner year.  He pulled down a defensive rebound between two Wildcats, made all of his free throws, had the offensive rebound and assist, and even hit the 2^nd of 3 long range shots.

For a team that was fighting for its NCAA tourney life, NW looked more like a purple stuffed kitty cat than a team deserving of playing on the big stage.  When Morgan and Smot were on the floor, Michigan outscored the Wildcats 53-27. Northwestern (which has one of the most efficient offenses in the nation) was limited to 27 points in 40 possessions.  A win is a win, but what would have happened if the refs would have realized they are officiating a big boy basketball game? 

Regardless, one more game down and 3 more to go.  That is 4 conference wins in a row (2 on the road).  Saturday will be one of the most emotional environments in Crisler as it is senior day for Michigan.  The Michigan faithful will get a chance to pay their respects to Stu, Zack, and Corey.  Even though Stu and Zack are limited athletically, it has been absolutely amazing watching them develop into legitimate college players. They have been the key players in turing around Michigan and creating a winning environment.  They are the leaders on and off the floor, and they will be missed an incredible amount as this program moves forward.  I actually think they deserve their jerseys hung in the banners or something in the new Crisler named after them.  When these two undersized, under-athletic Hoosiers came to Ann Arbor, most people thought this is all that Beilein can recruit?  Sure he can coach in the Big East, but what about here in the best conference?  4 years later these two guys have been key factors in Michigan being in the NCAA tourney 3 times. Nobody could have predicted that, and that is what makes this team so much fun to root for.

Go Blue!

Northwestern preview!

Tonight will likely be Michigan’s toughest remaining game of the regular season.  There are lots of factors that show that this game is perfect timing for a trap game.  Northwestern is still on the bubble for their first ever NCAA tournament berth and a win against a top 15 team will almost guarantee them a slot in the bracket.  Michigan is coming off of one of their most emotional wins of the season, a game where they played near the best team basketball possible.  The Wolverines are being considered a 3 seed, and have an outside chance at a regular season B1G title for the first time in 26 years. This road game falls right after OSU and right before Purdue on senior day, which is going to be very emotional for the players and fans (having to say goodbye to Novak and Douglass).  Northwestern plays very tough at home, and have already beaten MSU there pretty easily even.  Also, Michigan has struggled on the road this season, and it is very difficult to win road games in the nation’s toughest conference.

Northwestern has their own version of Miami’s Big 3, John Shurna just became Northwestern’s all time leading scorer and Crawford is an athletic wing player that has been more efficicent on the offensive end than Buford from OSU.  The Chris Bosh player in this triangle is freshman point guard Dave Sobolewski.  He is scrappy and attacks the hoop as much as Trey Burke does.  His main purpose is not to look for his own shot, but to find his sniper teammates on the perimeter.  One thing that has changed since the early January game in AA is that the Wildcat’s starting center is sidelined with an ankle injury.  This will force Shurna to play the center, causing a huge mismatch for both teams offensively.  Will Morgan try to guard the 6’9” perimeter player, will Novak start on him and then get help with a double team on the block, or will Smot be called on to play 25+ minutes tonight to try to slow down Shurna?  I don’t think Smot can take playing time away from Morgan at this point of the season, so the defensive responsibility will likely fall onto Novak or Morgan, but likely a combination of both.  Novak will be able to keep up with Shurna better as he runs off of screens, but the 6’9” star will be able to shoot over Zack on the low post.  I can see Michigan starting out in man to man with Morgan on Shurna with Novak switching onto him around the perimeter.  Douglass will be called on to lock down Crawford like he did to Burford on Saturday night, and Burke will be required to focus a lot more effort on the defensive end of the floor cutting off the dribble drives and keeping Sobo-cop out of the paint.  Northwestern is one of the worst rebounding teams in the conference and nation, so Michigan has to have the edge in this category tonight especially on the offensive glass.  This was the main reason why Michigan won the first matchup, the shots were not falling (7-30 from 3), but Big Blue had as many offensive rebounds as NW had total boards. Northwestern’s style of play is a poor mans version of Michigan.  They want to exploit the back door cut to get some easy layups, and if this is not there then they will run high screen after high screen for Sobocop and Crawford to either go to the hoop and finish or kick out for an open 3 point attempt (NW shoots the most 3s in the conference).  Tonight will all start with Burke and Douglass, if they can keep their defensive responsibilities in front of them Michigan will not need to step up to cut off the drives which will leave open shooters at the 3 point line.  If NW’s guards are locked down, Shurna can score 40 points and NW will still not win this game. 

Defensively, NW likes to run a 1-3-1 offense, and with their normal starting center out Michigan will need to utilize Morgan more tonight than in any other game this season.  The Wildcats have nobody that can match the physicality of JMo, and Burke will have to find him on the blocks.  Look for Morgan to record his second straight double double tonight.  In the matchup of the freshman point guards, Burke should be able to break down Sobocop off the dribble tonight more than he did against the best on ball defender in the conference (Craft).  Which we all saw Burke get to the rim pretty easily at times even on Saturday.  These drives will be important for Burke to limit his turnovers, he has a tendency to take one or two dribbles too many and then have to force an extremely tough shot or pass.  Luckily this season he has made a high number of these tough shots, but lately has thrown quite a few balls away.  As he beats his defender, look for Shurna to rotate over to stop the drive, which will leave Morgan with great position on the block with a guard to try to stop him from a dunk.  Michigan cannot settle on the easy 3 tonight.  They have to have some confidence in their inside game after going just 3-13 against OSU and still winning.  They cannot shoot 7-30 again tonight.  The only way they get that many attempts up is if they are shooting near 50%, otherwise they have to attack the paint with Burke, Hardaway and Morgan.  Again Northwestern is a terrible rebounding team, so look for Novak to spark some energy by getting a few hard fought Orebounds, and Morgan to fight for good position against the beanpole.  These 2^nd chance opportunities will be huge for Michigan to pull this game out. 

Prediction:  I actually think Michigan will start out very flat and seem uninterested in this game.  It will actually be very impressive if they don’t. I think they will play good enough defense in the beginning to keep in the game, but I just think the offensive efficiency will be terrible until at least the first tv timeout.  If the Wolverines can recover in time, they should be able to win this game just by outrebounding and being more athletic overall.  But they should have beat Iowa.  Anything can happen on the road, especially against a team fighting for their NCAA tourney life.  I think NW will play a very tough game and keep the game close the entire way.  Look for Novak and Stu to have some game changing plays to seal the win down the stretch.  I could very easily see the Wildcats pull this game out, but right now Michigan is being led by 2 very experienced seniors who taste a B1G conference championship.  I have to believe they will continue to find a way to give us a shot going into the last weekend of the season.  Michigan 68 NW 61.

Go Blue!

2/18/12 The Greatest Sports Day for a Michigan Fan?

Saturday might have been the best sports day in Michigan history.  The softball team kept rolling down south with 2 more victories, the baseball team kicked off its season with a win, the hockey team won on senior night to move up to number 2 in the nation.  That is a pretty standard Saturday in February right there, but it is not what put 2/18/12 over the top.  College GameDay was in town for the first time to take in Crisler Center and a basketball game.  1,500 fans were rocking from 10-12 am while the game was still 9 hours away.  The many 2013 football recruits in town for unofficial visits made their way into Crisler to take in the events and throughout the day 6 top notch recruits committed to the Maize and Blue.  Then fans flooded the arena for the game against Ohio.  It was the loudest basketball game I have ever been to.  It seemed like the entire stadium was into every moment.  Brady Hoke was honored at halftime as the National Coach of the Year, and even Coach Hoke was fired up while watching the basketball team take on that 4 letter team down south.  Oh yea… and the basketball team played its best game that I remember since the December 2008 game vs Duke (Stu and Zack’s freshman year). 

I will start with the recruiting for a bit.  Never before has any team gotten so many recruits in a day that isn’t National Signing Day. And Michigan added 2 more top players yesterday bringing the total to 8.  The 2012 recruiting class was a consensus top 10 class this last year with 3 top 100 players, the 2013 class already has 5 with 2 more likely to move up in the rankings.  It is likely that 3-4 of these guys will get the elusive 5 star ranking.  We currently have one of the best QBs, TEs, 4 of the best OL’s, Safety, and then 3 players with a ton of potential that are just raw talents right now.  Out of the 11 total commits currently, all but 1 is a 4 star, and that is a TE from Detroit to keep the recruiting lines open for future prospects.  It is also expected that 1-2 players will commit within this week. 

Back to basketball… it was one of those games that just felt like the players made up their mind they weren’t going to lose and then did whatever was needed to make that happen.  It was one of the best defensive efforts against OSU this year (top 12 offense in the nation).  Every player besides Thomas had lower than average points.  Burford was locked down by Stu for the entire night and was limited to 6 points (he is likely to become one of OSU’s top scorers EVER).  Morgan battled Sullinger down low all night long.  He stayed out of foul trouble, and if it wasn’t for 2 terribly cheap calls in a row to begin the 2^nd half, he would have ended the game with 0 fouls.  Morgan recorded his first double double in a Michigan uniform.  Sullinger was held to 14 points in the game, which is pretty impressive considering OSU runs their offense through their big man when they need points.  In the 2^nd half, there was a stretch of 9 straight possessions that OSU passed the ball into him.  Michigan still got outrebounded for the game, and gave up too many offensive rebounds again, but they countered that with creating turnovers.  Michigan drew 5 charges and forced 15 turnovers for the game, and outscored OSU 8-0 in transition points.

Hardaway continued to break out of his slump by scoring 13 points on 5 shots.  He didn’t take a single bad shot during the game and contributed in all areas of the game.  Michigan continued its balanced scoring efforts with 17 from Burke, 13 from Hardaway, 11 from Morgan, 7 from Stu, and 6 from Novak.  Burke continued to impress on national tv, and now is considered the best freshman PG in the nation.  The players just wouldn’t let Michigan lose.  In the last few possessions Stu, Zack, and Trey all made near impossible shots with the shot clock winding down to keep the lead at 5 points.  Morgan battled for an offensive rebound to set up one of these shots, and Tim closed out on Thomas to alter a 3 point attempt which resulted in one of his only misses of the 2^nd half.  It was an incredible team effort.  It was the kind of effort needed to win NCAAA tourney games.  And regardless of the bracket matchups, if this team plays like that it will be unbelievably fun to watch them play together. 

It truly is great to be a Michigan Wolverine!

Ohio preview!

The showdown is finally here.  College GameDay is arriving on the campus of Michigan and the team’s basketball program will be the focus of the nation for the full day and will conclude with the national game tomorrow night at 9 pm.  It is the first time the GameDay crew has been in Ann Arbor for basketball, so it will be exciting that the Maize Rage will be in the spotlight.  I was at the MSU game back in January, so I cannot wait to hear how loud the Crisler Center will be tomorrow night.

The first time these two teams met the theme of the Ohio win was the rebounding advantage the Bucknuts had against us.  They accumulated 14 offensive rebounds (8 from Smith Jr).  This has to be the key for Coach B to focus on all week.  If Michigan can at least keep Ohio off of the offensive glass, they will have a great chance to pull off this upset.  OSU had 16 second chance points and shot 17 more free throws than Big Blue.  It will be important to keep the 2^nd chance points under 10, and the free throw difference under 5 attempts. 

In my opinion, Smot will need to play some important minutes alongside of Morgan tomorrow night.  I am not saying that he should start and has to play 30+ minutes, but there will be a critical stretch of 8 minutes at some point during the game that both guys will need to be on the floor to stretch the defense so OSU will not be able to compact into the paint to take away Burke’s driving chances. Also, this taller lineup gives Michigan a better chance to control more defensive rebounds.  The problem has been though one of them is almost guaranteed to get into foul trouble which severely reduces Michigan’s depth. 

Offensively, Michigan will need to get Hardaway going early to keep his head in the game.  We will need him to help as much as possible on the defensive glass. Also if Ohio is focused on Burke’s dribble drive like most teams have been, Hardaway will be our number 1 option to attack the middle and draw fouls on Sullinger.  If Sullinger gets to observe most of the game from the bench, it will be a big relief defensively for Michigan.  Somebody will need to make some 3 pointers tomorrow night so the defense cannot suck into the middle and cut off any dribble drives from Burke.  This person will likely have to be Stu or Tim.  Since Novak will have to guard Thomas, the size differential will limit Novak’s looks.  Then if Smot and Vogrich can come off of the bench to knock down 3-4 shots between them, Michigan could be very efficient on offense.  It will be very important though that Hardaway comes to play and continues to attack the hoop.  He has to get over 15 points for Michigan to be in the game at the end.  If his production is reduced to under 10 points, too many points will need to be found from the supporting cast to make this upset unrealistic. 

Defensively, look for Michigan to go to zone often if Morgan gets into foul trouble again.  They will let Jordan battle Sullinger down low until the refs give him the star treatment and call cheap fouls.  If the refs let physical play go like they did last weekend in Columbus with MSU played OSU, it gives Michigan a big advantage.  Michigan will have to rebound well.  They cannot let Smith Jr have the game of his life again.  Like usual Michigan will prioritize stopping fast break chances from Ohio, and will not really try to get many offensive rebounds, but Hardaway is going to have to step up with 5-8 rebounds in this game and Stu cannot let Smith get to the hoop without being touched.  The rebounding game is going to be a major battle, and one that Michigan will likely continue to struggle in.  if this is case they will have to continue to force turnovers.  Ohio cannot finish with more offensive rebounds than turnovers.  If this happens again, it will be a long game for the Michigan faithful. 

I think the past 2 wins have given this team some much needed confidence heading into the home stretch of the schedule.  At this point a 12 win conference season is very attainable, which is very impressive for a team that goes 7 deep.  A win tomorrow night gives Michigan the inside track to a top 2 finish in the conference in the year before any expectations will be forced on the basketball team.  Keep up the incredible work Coach B. 

Prediction:  The crowd is incredible and is the loudest that Crisler has ever seen, this home court advantage keeps Michigan in the game for the majority of the game.  In the end though Ohio is just too strong down low and comes out with a 66-64 win (I really hope I am wrong).

Go Blue!

HockeyTown in February (instead of April)

Congrats to the Red Wings who just won their 21 straight home game, which is an NHL record.  During this winning streak they have outscored their opponents 80-21.  Somehow they are just 15-15-1 on the road so far this season though. 

I was lucky enough to get a chance to watch most of the game last Sunday night against the Flyers for the 20^th straight win.  The game was amazing, it was hockey how the NHL wants it to be played.  It was fast with some big hits and 7 total goals scored.  It kept me interested from start to finish, and made me realize just how much I actually like watching the Wings play. 

If you know me, you know that I love basketball.  I know a lot about the sport, love playing it, and like watching high school and college games regardless if there is a team I care about playing.  But I honestly think that if the NHL was marketed as much as the NBA it would become more profitable than the No Basketball Association.  I almost have to be tied to a chair and held as a prisoner to suffer through an entire NBA game.  I don’t really like any aspect of it.  There is very little offensive strategy besides the isolation play, I don’t think there is any defensive strategies so it shapes up with a glorified pickup game with cheerleaders and announcers.  I like analyzing the different offensive sets in college, I like thinking how I would attack the Syracuse 2-3 zone if I was a coach, I love the emotion of players like Zack Novak, I love the tradition, and I love the passion of the fans.  NBA has none of the above.  For many basketball related reasons, but also cultural, I think if ESPN renewed their contract with the NHL and spent as much time and money promoting it and showing it during SportsCenter, the sport would completely surpass the NBA in ratings and profits. 

What I saw on Sunday was a game far more exciting than any NBA game that I have seen since the Pistons beat the Lakers in 2004.  It was a mere regular season game.  The fans are more passionate, the incredible stars are more team oriented, and 1 star will never be able to dominate a  game like is possible in the NBA.  I will admit I don’t know a lot of the strategy of hockey, but I can tell you that Pavel Datysuk is as fun to watch as Miguel Cabrera bat or Calvin catch a TD pass.  I can tell you that you don’t see players with his abilities every day, and that he is an amazing hockey player. 

Congrats to the Red Wings for showing Detroit, again, that they are the best franchise in all of professional sports for the at least the last 15 years, and for letting fans realize how special this team is and how lucky we are to have them in our city.  Hopefully the fans begin to care about the Wings before the Conference Championship round in the playoffs.

Nebraska & Illinois recaps

A lot has happened since my last Michigan’s basketball recap…  the team won 2 more games and looked pretty good in doing so.  Currently they moved up to a 3 seed in most people’s brackets and could be an outside shot at a 2 with a win against OSU tomorrow and a strong finish.  For thinking Michigan would finish with 10 or 11 wins in the conference, a 3 seed would be pretty incredible. 

After the terrible game against MSU a few weeks ago Michigan bounced back with 2 of their best halves of the season.  In the 2^nd half of the Nebraska game they shot 72% from the field (including missing their last 3 shots during garbage time), and then came back and shot 13-23 in the first half of the Illinois game on Sunday. 

One thing in common with both of these halves was that Tim Hardaway broke out of his shell and played like the team’s best player should.  In the 2^nd half against NEB, THJ shot 3-5, had 3 assists, 2 rebounds and drew a charge.  Probably the most important thing though is the Wolverines came out from the locker room and immediately ran 4 plays to the super sophomore.  You could tell that he felt more involved in the game, and it showed more on both sides of the floor.  He crashed the boards on the defensive end with more effort, ran the break and looked to setup his teammates, and attacked the rim to get some easy shots and see the ball go through the hoop.  Against Illinois, Tim scored 10 points in the first half and barely missed a shot.  When he gets involved in the game early, his total game is elevated to an All-B1G performer.  It seems like he is going to break out of his slump by doing more of the little things on the court and letting the shots and the game come to him.

Smot finally scored double digits again (for the first time this year), and when he can step out and knock down a long jumper it really stretches a defense to allow Novak and Morgan to crash the offensive glass more.  Lets hope he can keep up the confidence long enough to help Michigan to its first Sweet Sixteen under Coach B.  Matt Vogrich finally proved that he is one of the best shooters on the team and conference.  I watched him and Tim warm up before the Illinois game, and just from what I counted they were a combined 21-23 from 3.  Vogrich hit 3 three pointers in a row against Nebraska in the 2^nd half to really put the game away, and then knocked down a clutch 3 in the Illinois game.  Now if he can consistently play tough defense, he can be a great replacement for Stu next year. 

Michigan had to use a lot of zone against the always lengthy Illinois team.  They have really improved their zone play since the beginning of the year. I like how Coach B has moved away from the 1-3-1 to the 2-3 because of this team’s strengths.  Next season with McGary into the lineup the 1-3-1 could be the one of the scariest matchups in the nation (6’6” THJ at the point, 6’10” athletic McGary in the middle, speedy Burke on the bottom, athletic 6’7” Robinson on a wing, and lengthy Vogrich/ Smot/ or Biefeldt on the other wing) I will break down that great image more later… I am convinced that the more I watch Michigan play this year that their defense is one of the top in the conference and nation.  They have improved their reaction time to the post double team, force a lot of pressure on the ball and end up forcing a lot of bad first shots.  Their problem right now is that they are a terrible rebounding team since they cannot play Smot and Morgan at the same time.  If they were even just an average rebounding team, they would be rivaling Wisconsin and OSU as some of the best defenses per possession in the nation. 

Go Blue, Beat Ohio!

Super Bowl thoughts and a Super Dream

The Super Bowl has come and gone and somehow the Giants beat the Patriots again for the title.  The Boston media is calling out Tom Brady, and some are even asking for Ryan Mallet to begin starting football games for their team.  The nation is again in love with Peyton’s younger (and less talented) brother.  And somehow Tom Coughlin avoids getting fired for another year. 

I will admit it, I was rooting for the Pats.  I like watching Tom Brady do his thing, and on the other side I just really don’t like the Giants.  I am not sure how people can be calling for Tom’s head after that game.  He was not on the defense that couldn’t just get one more stop, or recover one of the Giants three fumbles.  He did not drop one of the 4 dropped passed from Pats receivers on the game. He did make a bad decision that resulted in the safety (on the Pats very first offensive play) and threw the one interception that really played like a good punt from Zoltan.  To say that Brady was the cause of this loss is just ignorant.  Yes, he did get outplayed by Eli (again), but nobody would have been talking about that right now if the 20 yard pass to Welker was caught.  Welker has some of the best hands in the league, and to blame the loss on just him is also very ignorant.  But he will make that catch 9 times out of 10, and if we are in one of those situations, the Patriots have a new set of downs inside the 25 yard line.  They are able to play their normal aggressive style, and would have likely scored at least a field goal.  At that point though, running time off of the clock would have been more important.  It would have left Eli under 2 minutes to pull off that last drive instead of 4. But the pass fell to the ground and the Pats fell to the Giants, yet again.  The Pats have an incredible 5 losses vs the NFC since Super Bowl 42, and 4 of them are against the Giants. I think the main reason why the game left a bad taste in my mouth though is… our very own Detroit Lions are not that far away talent wise as the Giants.

When was the last time you could honestly say that?  Not in my life time I don’t think.  Think about it though, the Giants have their franchise QB in Eli.  He has been criticized over and over, but somehow has 2 rings. Yes, he plays like a completely different QB in the post season, but I think Matt Stafford is just as good as Eli.  Regular season for sure, and we only have a 1 game sample for Stafford in the playoffs and he really didn’t play too bad.  The Giants have an average offensive line that cant seem to run block well, does that sound familiar?  Yes, the Giants have 2 very good running backs, better than the Lions group, but if the line does not create running lanes it doesn’t matter how good the backs are.  The Lions actually finished higher than the Giants in rush offense this season (every team in the NFL finished higher than the Giants).  New York has a pretty good set of receivers (Nicks, Cruz, and Manningham), but the Lions have a very good group of their own.  The Lions have the best receiver in the league, no team can really shut down Calvin.  And when a team tries too hard it leaves the other guys (Burleson and Young wide open).  The Lions have better tight ends than the Super Bowl champs, which create even more of mismatches in coverage.  So offensively I actually like the Lions better right now.

Defensively, the Giants strength has been their pass rush for years.  They are dominant up front and rarely need to blitz an extra guy which allows them to match up well with most teams.  Sound familiar?  The Lion’s strength on defense is supposed to be their defensive line.  They are loaded with talent that just underperformed for the 2011 season. The Giants front 4 has gotten more recognition and awards, but the Lions are right there in terms of talent.  The Giants have a very underwhelming linebacking crew.  If the Lions can hold onto Stephen Tulloch this offseason and draft a future replacement, this group becomes better than average and should rack up tons of tackles with our defensive line. The Giants do not have one of the top secondaries in the league, but they are better than what the Lions currently can put on the field.  I don’t expect a dramatic improvement in this area in just this offseason, but I think a key free agent and a draft pick could really make a lot of difference in this area. 

It is not crazy, the Lions are very talented team.  All it takes is for the team to get hot at the right time (like the Giants and Packers did the past 2 years) to make a Super Bowl run in the very near future.  Even though I can prove that with stats and projecting talent for next year, it seems like a dream that the Lions are closer to a Super Bowl title than going 0-16.

MSU Recap

Sorry this is an old post, but I have wanted to recap the MSU game since Sunday and haven’t gotten around to it until now.

The game in East Lansing can pretty much be summed up as we got beat by a better team.  Since Horford is going to be out for the season, Michigan has very little depth on the front line.  This lack of bodies forces Beilein to play Smot as Morgan’s backup.  It is too risky to play them both at the same time since they struggle with fouls.  When Novak is moved down to the 4, lengthy teams like MSU and OSU will just dominate the offensive glass.  It might create mismatches on the offensive end for Michigan, but when the players don’t make the open shots in front of them the mismatch is offset.

MSU finished with as many offensive rebounds and Michigan had total rebounds.  For most of the season so far Michigan looked like it had improved on its rebounding since last year, but since Douglass was entered into the starting lineup for Smot, rebounding has gone downhill fast.  At this point Michigan just needs bodies.  Just think if Ben Cronin wouldn’t have had crappy knees that caused him to never really see the court.  Having a talented 7 footer right now, even coming off the bench, would be a huge boost to this teams interior abilities. If Horford hadn’t gotten hurt, Smot would likely still be able to play the 4 alongside of Morgan.

Michigan is as talented as almost any other team in the conference when you look at the starting 5 or 6 (even though 2 of them are slumping really badly right now), but then when MSU and OSU are bringing heavily sought after recruits off the bench as their 7-10 players Michigan just cannot match up.  Even with Hardaway missing a solid 10 shots per game, and Smot looking like a deer in headlights, if this team had even just one more solid body to plug up the middle they could be primed to challenge for the B1G championship and make a deep run in the NCAA tournament.  We have to wait at least one more year for that to happen, but it is very disappointing to think that Novak will not be on that team. 

You have to give most of the credit to MSU, because their defensive improvements on Sunday compared to the game in Ann Arbor were drastic.  They defended the high ball screen better than any team had done all year.  They doubled Burke off the hedge and did not allow him to find the open big rolling to the front of the rim.  When Burke did find some space, and was able to drive inside of the 3 point arc, 4 bodies collapsed on him hard causing him to rush a shot, turn the ball over, or try to pass to a wing player.  Most teams will not be able to collapse 4 against Michigan, but the Spartans were athletic enough to close out on the shooters that Burke kicked out to.  It also helps that Michigan missed at least 8 threes that could not have been more open.  In a game that you are outmatched athletically, you have to convert the opportunities that are given.

One thing that I am continually impressed with is how good on a post defender Morgan has become.  He knows his weakness (being 6’8” as a center), so he works harder than anyone on the defensive end to not allow the opponent to catch the ball on the block.  Also, most B1G officials let the bigs play, which is one of my favorite parts of our conference. Once an entry pass is found, Morgan is a little too short to lock down most opposing centers.  But there have been a lot of possessions this season where the opponent barely even looks down low.  This will have to continue when we play Illinois twice down the stretch. 

I keep waiting for Hardaway to bust out of his slump somehow, but right now he is lacking any confidence in his scoring abilities. Last season he did knock down shot after improbable shot, causing expectations to be huge this year. But right now he is not even making his open looks.  The most disappointing thing about Smot and THJ right now is, that after missing a shot it will completely take their head out of the game.  They stop hustling after loose balls, they become even lazier on defense, they don’t crash the boards to get any defensive rebounds.  They are just on the floor taking in the game from the best seats in the house. Beilein had to have seen this terrible effort on Sunday, because last night against Nebraska Tim might have played his best all around game of the season even though he continued to struggle shooting the ball.  The shots will start to fall again for our best scoring threat if he can continue to keep his head in the game.  Confidence will begin to come back with a few good rebounds, a steal here or there, a good defensive set, a hard back cut to get an easy layup, or good court vision to get one of his teammates an easy look. 

Looking at Michigan’s schedule they are in great position to finish with a winning conference record for the first time in many many years.  Not only should they have a winning record, but they should finish at least 11-7 (probably 12-6).  The team is still in place to finish in the top 4 of the conference and get the important first round bye in the B1G tourney.  The way the schedule lines up, it is very likely that if Michigan can take care of business over this last month they will be set for a rematch with Sparty in the 2 vs 3 seed semi final game in the conference tournament.

National Signing Day!

It is sad that a college football fan’s Christmas is a day where 18 year old boys tell the nation where they are going to spend the next 2-5 years of their life.  Now that college football makes about as much money as the NBA, today has become a holiday for some.  I can’t lie, I am definitely excited to see where some of these kids end up.  Brady Hoke salvaged last years recruiting class by keeping most of the players on board and offering a sleeper in Desmond Morgan which saw a lot of minutes in his freshman year.  Not only did our coach of year do his best effort to field a good class with just under a month to trying, he jumped in head first to fill the 2012 recruiting class.

It has been a year now that I have been following this next batch of incoming freshman.  How drastically different the social media makes recruiting.  Just a few years ago I wouldn’t know more than the few top rated commits for Michigan, and then ESPN would show the recruiting class rankings. Now I know which high schools most of these future Wolverines played for, their metrics, and even some stats.  I can picture next year’s depth chart with the freshman class included, and even make predictions of how their freshman years will play out. 

Michigan made a huge splash early in the recruiting process.  They stole the consensus 5 star Kyle Kalis away from Ohio, infiltrated a normal MSU feeder (Farmington Hills Harrison) to pick off 2 of their best players and almost getting a 3^rd if the WR could have met academic requirements, offered scholarships to rising stars (Pipkins started at the bottom of the Scout 250, and now is a 5 star recruit that dominated the Army All-American game), and found players who filled the teams needs.  Maybe most importantly, Brady Hoke has recruited high character players that are proud to be playing for Michigan.  Many of the recruits have said they would not have considered U-M if Rich Rod was still the coach, and many parents have raved about how respectful all of the Michigan coaches have been during the in-home visits.  One of the easiest ways to recruit a high school senior is to mess with his impressions of different schools.  Many coaches will ask  a prospect what other universities they are considering playing for, then the coach will go one by one saying any bad thing they can think of about those schools.

What might be the most incredible part of this year’s recruiting class is that it is a consensus top 5 class, yet it is filled with non-skill position players.  It is easy to get hyped up on the QB who can throw 80 yards from his knees, the WR how has the 45” vertical, the RB who is 205 lbs yet still runs a 4.4 40.  There aren’t as many drills or metrics that can grade how good a lineman or linebacker is.  There is no quarterback in this year’s class, there is a 3 star running back, 2 up and coming receivers who are sleeper recruits, and 1 four star CB who will likely need to redshirt next year.  Probably the skill player that will contribute the most next year is a Cincinnati de-commit, Dennis Norfleet, who is a 5’7” all-purpose back from Detroit.  He will likely start the year on special teams as a kick returner and possibly even the punt returner.

This year’s class seems like just the beginning of some incredible years here in Ann Arbor with the 2013 recruiting class under way and Michigan already signing 2 five star players, with many many more interested.  The 2012 class is necessary to give depth to both lines, and will likely provide multiple first team conference players, and maybe All-Americans or first round draft picks but the 2013 class is shaping up to change the landscape of B1G football to move it back to a decade of the big 2 and little 10 schools.   

Go Blue!