Ohio preview!

The showdown is finally here.  College GameDay is arriving on the campus of Michigan and the team’s basketball program will be the focus of the nation for the full day and will conclude with the national game tomorrow night at 9 pm.  It is the first time the GameDay crew has been in Ann Arbor for basketball, so it will be exciting that the Maize Rage will be in the spotlight.  I was at the MSU game back in January, so I cannot wait to hear how loud the Crisler Center will be tomorrow night.

The first time these two teams met the theme of the Ohio win was the rebounding advantage the Bucknuts had against us.  They accumulated 14 offensive rebounds (8 from Smith Jr).  This has to be the key for Coach B to focus on all week.  If Michigan can at least keep Ohio off of the offensive glass, they will have a great chance to pull off this upset.  OSU had 16 second chance points and shot 17 more free throws than Big Blue.  It will be important to keep the 2^nd chance points under 10, and the free throw difference under 5 attempts. 

In my opinion, Smot will need to play some important minutes alongside of Morgan tomorrow night.  I am not saying that he should start and has to play 30+ minutes, but there will be a critical stretch of 8 minutes at some point during the game that both guys will need to be on the floor to stretch the defense so OSU will not be able to compact into the paint to take away Burke’s driving chances. Also, this taller lineup gives Michigan a better chance to control more defensive rebounds.  The problem has been though one of them is almost guaranteed to get into foul trouble which severely reduces Michigan’s depth. 

Offensively, Michigan will need to get Hardaway going early to keep his head in the game.  We will need him to help as much as possible on the defensive glass. Also if Ohio is focused on Burke’s dribble drive like most teams have been, Hardaway will be our number 1 option to attack the middle and draw fouls on Sullinger.  If Sullinger gets to observe most of the game from the bench, it will be a big relief defensively for Michigan.  Somebody will need to make some 3 pointers tomorrow night so the defense cannot suck into the middle and cut off any dribble drives from Burke.  This person will likely have to be Stu or Tim.  Since Novak will have to guard Thomas, the size differential will limit Novak’s looks.  Then if Smot and Vogrich can come off of the bench to knock down 3-4 shots between them, Michigan could be very efficient on offense.  It will be very important though that Hardaway comes to play and continues to attack the hoop.  He has to get over 15 points for Michigan to be in the game at the end.  If his production is reduced to under 10 points, too many points will need to be found from the supporting cast to make this upset unrealistic. 

Defensively, look for Michigan to go to zone often if Morgan gets into foul trouble again.  They will let Jordan battle Sullinger down low until the refs give him the star treatment and call cheap fouls.  If the refs let physical play go like they did last weekend in Columbus with MSU played OSU, it gives Michigan a big advantage.  Michigan will have to rebound well.  They cannot let Smith Jr have the game of his life again.  Like usual Michigan will prioritize stopping fast break chances from Ohio, and will not really try to get many offensive rebounds, but Hardaway is going to have to step up with 5-8 rebounds in this game and Stu cannot let Smith get to the hoop without being touched.  The rebounding game is going to be a major battle, and one that Michigan will likely continue to struggle in.  if this is case they will have to continue to force turnovers.  Ohio cannot finish with more offensive rebounds than turnovers.  If this happens again, it will be a long game for the Michigan faithful. 

I think the past 2 wins have given this team some much needed confidence heading into the home stretch of the schedule.  At this point a 12 win conference season is very attainable, which is very impressive for a team that goes 7 deep.  A win tomorrow night gives Michigan the inside track to a top 2 finish in the conference in the year before any expectations will be forced on the basketball team.  Keep up the incredible work Coach B. 

Prediction:  The crowd is incredible and is the loudest that Crisler has ever seen, this home court advantage keeps Michigan in the game for the majority of the game.  In the end though Ohio is just too strong down low and comes out with a 66-64 win (I really hope I am wrong).

Go Blue!