Tonight will likely be Michigan’s toughest remaining game of the regular season. There are lots of factors that show that this game is perfect timing for a trap game. Northwestern is still on the bubble for their first ever NCAA tournament berth and a win against a top 15 team will almost guarantee them a slot in the bracket. Michigan is coming off of one of their most emotional wins of the season, a game where they played near the best team basketball possible. The Wolverines are being considered a 3 seed, and have an outside chance at a regular season B1G title for the first time in 26 years. This road game falls right after OSU and right before Purdue on senior day, which is going to be very emotional for the players and fans (having to say goodbye to Novak and Douglass). Northwestern plays very tough at home, and have already beaten MSU there pretty easily even. Also, Michigan has struggled on the road this season, and it is very difficult to win road games in the nation’s toughest conference.
Northwestern has their own version of Miami’s Big 3, John Shurna just became Northwestern’s all time leading scorer and Crawford is an athletic wing player that has been more efficicent on the offensive end than Buford from OSU. The Chris Bosh player in this triangle is freshman point guard Dave Sobolewski. He is scrappy and attacks the hoop as much as Trey Burke does. His main purpose is not to look for his own shot, but to find his sniper teammates on the perimeter. One thing that has changed since the early January game in AA is that the Wildcat’s starting center is sidelined with an ankle injury. This will force Shurna to play the center, causing a huge mismatch for both teams offensively. Will Morgan try to guard the 6’9” perimeter player, will Novak start on him and then get help with a double team on the block, or will Smot be called on to play 25+ minutes tonight to try to slow down Shurna? I don’t think Smot can take playing time away from Morgan at this point of the season, so the defensive responsibility will likely fall onto Novak or Morgan, but likely a combination of both. Novak will be able to keep up with Shurna better as he runs off of screens, but the 6’9” star will be able to shoot over Zack on the low post. I can see Michigan starting out in man to man with Morgan on Shurna with Novak switching onto him around the perimeter. Douglass will be called on to lock down Crawford like he did to Burford on Saturday night, and Burke will be required to focus a lot more effort on the defensive end of the floor cutting off the dribble drives and keeping Sobo-cop out of the paint. Northwestern is one of the worst rebounding teams in the conference and nation, so Michigan has to have the edge in this category tonight especially on the offensive glass. This was the main reason why Michigan won the first matchup, the shots were not falling (7-30 from 3), but Big Blue had as many offensive rebounds as NW had total boards. Northwestern’s style of play is a poor mans version of Michigan. They want to exploit the back door cut to get some easy layups, and if this is not there then they will run high screen after high screen for Sobocop and Crawford to either go to the hoop and finish or kick out for an open 3 point attempt (NW shoots the most 3s in the conference). Tonight will all start with Burke and Douglass, if they can keep their defensive responsibilities in front of them Michigan will not need to step up to cut off the drives which will leave open shooters at the 3 point line. If NW’s guards are locked down, Shurna can score 40 points and NW will still not win this game.
Defensively, NW likes to run a 1-3-1 offense, and with their normal starting center out Michigan will need to utilize Morgan more tonight than in any other game this season. The Wildcats have nobody that can match the physicality of JMo, and Burke will have to find him on the blocks. Look for Morgan to record his second straight double double tonight. In the matchup of the freshman point guards, Burke should be able to break down Sobocop off the dribble tonight more than he did against the best on ball defender in the conference (Craft). Which we all saw Burke get to the rim pretty easily at times even on Saturday. These drives will be important for Burke to limit his turnovers, he has a tendency to take one or two dribbles too many and then have to force an extremely tough shot or pass. Luckily this season he has made a high number of these tough shots, but lately has thrown quite a few balls away. As he beats his defender, look for Shurna to rotate over to stop the drive, which will leave Morgan with great position on the block with a guard to try to stop him from a dunk. Michigan cannot settle on the easy 3 tonight. They have to have some confidence in their inside game after going just 3-13 against OSU and still winning. They cannot shoot 7-30 again tonight. The only way they get that many attempts up is if they are shooting near 50%, otherwise they have to attack the paint with Burke, Hardaway and Morgan. Again Northwestern is a terrible rebounding team, so look for Novak to spark some energy by getting a few hard fought Orebounds, and Morgan to fight for good position against the beanpole. These 2nd chance opportunities will be huge for Michigan to pull this game out.
Prediction: I actually think Michigan will start out very flat and seem uninterested in this game. It will actually be very impressive if they don’t. I think they will play good enough defense in the beginning to keep in the game, but I just think the offensive efficiency will be terrible until at least the first tv timeout. If the Wolverines can recover in time, they should be able to win this game just by outrebounding and being more athletic overall. But they should have beat Iowa. Anything can happen on the road, especially against a team fighting for their NCAA tourney life. I think NW will play a very tough game and keep the game close the entire way. Look for Novak and Stu to have some game changing plays to seal the win down the stretch. I could very easily see the Wildcats pull this game out, but right now Michigan is being led by 2 very experienced seniors who taste a B1G conference championship. I have to believe they will continue to find a way to give us a shot going into the last weekend of the season. Michigan 68 NW 61.
Go Blue!
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