For Michigan to continue their current winning streak, finish an undefeated home schedule, and beat Purdue on senior night the Wolverines will have to key on two players: Lewis Jackson and Robbie Hummel. Jackson is the catalyst that gets teammates good shots, and Hummel is the biggest threat to single handedly win a game for Purdue.
The first time these two teams met, Trey Burke struggled a lot with the speedy Jackson. He was unable to keep him in front of him consistently, and Jackson’s quickness halted a lot of dribble drives. For Michigan to control the tempo, they will need to find a way to control Jackson. It will be interesting to see Michigan’s game plan with Hummel. Will they try to switch on every ball screen like they did Tuesday night against Northwestern, or will they let Novak man up with the 5th year senior. I think Michigan will try a combination of both, possibly along with some 2-3 zone in there. Hummel will get his 15-20 points on most nights, the key here though is to keep him under 20. He cannot explode and keep an undermanned Purdue team in the game. Purdue has been lacking much of an inside presence all season, so Hummel will look to do some work on the blocks while Novak is matched up with him. Purdue also has Ryne Smith, their lone sniper from distance. He missed some open looks in the first game, but this should not be counted on. Hardaway and Stu will have to close out quickly when he gets the ball. Force him to drive inside as much as possible. You don’t want any part of this dude when he gets into a rhythm. He is as lethal as anyone from our team, but he does so by running off of screens not just set jumpers.
Offensively, Michigan should look to attack with Morgan as much as possible. Purdue is limited in big man depth. Hummel will need to guard Morgan during stretches of the game, and these times are essential for getting Morgan involved. Making Hummel play defense will tire him out, and possible get him into foul trouble. If that happens, Michigan should be able to expand their lead. Burke will have to play within himself tomorrow night and not force too many drives against the quicker defender. Since Jackson is so small, he has no chance of slowing down the pick and roll offense by switching onto the post player. Michigan will have to use this against the Boilers. Hummel will not be able to hedge out as far, knowing that Jackson is fun sized. Again, this is a game where Hardaway will have the athletic advantage. Will he play within himself like last weekend, or will he fall back into being a highly inefficient scorer? Purdue is consistently one of the best defensive teams in the league, but lately they have given up over 75 points to MSU and OSU. Michigan will be able to score the ball tomorrow with some good ball movement, and not relying on the 3 point shot like on Tuesday. Purdue will likely settle back into a 2-3 zone of its own during stretches of the game, and tempt Michigan to launch early threes.
Michigan is more talented of a team, they are playing with some confidence after 4 straight conference wins, and they are still playing for a B1G regular season title. The wolverines have more to play for tomorrow, but Robbie Hummel knows how to win ball games. I have a feeling this game will be closer than it needs to be during most of the game, but I think Big Blue has enough leadership and athletes to make enough plays to pull the game out. Plus, the seniors are going to want to go out on a high note. Michigan 71 Purdue 63
Go Blue!
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