Week 9: Nebraska Preview

A week after the Michigan football team finally beat Michigan State, they have to travel to Lincoln, Nebraska for what seems like the Legend’s Division title.  If Michigan loses this game, they no longer will be in control of their own destiny for the 2012 season.  The Wolverines could all but wrap up the division title this week (barring any major let downs).  The problem is that the Huskers are a completely different team at home, and this game is at night.  If that doesn't scare you at first, just try to remember how this Michigan team played the last time they were on the road at night?  Can you picture it, or is it blocked from your memory?  Lets just say it was not pretty, and so this football team still has a lot to prove.  Actually, a Michigan win on Saturday night might give the Big Ten its first "marquee" win of the season.

Nebraska Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense

By now you know that I really enjoy watching this Wolverine defense play, and they seem to continue to improve each week.  They will get their toughest test of the season since Alabama, and since the Tide built a 21 point lead in the first quarter they basically settled in and just ran the ball down our throats.  This weekend might be the most dynamic offense we will have played.  Nebraska has a stable of capable running backs (any of their top three I would enjoy seeing in a winged helmet).  Rex Burkhead has been battling a sprained knee for most of the season and might not be 100% Saturday night, but the corn fed Huskers have play makers to replace him.  Burkhead is the prototypical B1G running back, he is big but still fast enough, hands out punishment instead of takes it, has been durable in his career, and does not fumble the ball. He is the ground and pound aspect of the offense, and is able to run between the tackles better than backup Abdullah.  Remember Alabama running between the tackles, oh please make it stop. Abdullah is more of a scat back and likes to bounce runs to the outside.  He increases the team speed while he is on the field and makes a nasty combination with dual threat QB Martinez.  Nebraska is one of the best running offenses in the nation.  Yes, you can argue that they have not faced a defense like Michigan's.  Wisconsin line backers are as good as Michigan's, but the defensive line was a mess in their matchup with Nebraska.  Ohio State has a talented defensive line, but their line backers are still learning the defensive scheme.  While that is all true, Nebraska will still get yards.  The Husker offensive line is not nearly as good as Alabama, but with the spread style offense it doesn't have to be.  Michigan will have to play fundamentally sound football, and stay in their gaps to limit the long runs.  Even if they do this as well as they have been in the last 4 games, Nebraska will still likely average 4-5 ypc.  That is not going to force many 3 and outs. Advantage Nebraska.

Nebraska Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense

Taylor Martinez is leading the B1G in passing efficiency.  Yes he improved his technique some in the offseason, but not that much.  He still shot puts the ball places, but so far defenses have not been able to capitalize on that.  The Huskers also have the best receiving corps in the conference, so no defensive secondary can keep up with them. Folks, the difference in passer efficiency between Nebraska and number 2 Ohio State is the same gap between the Buckeyes and number 11 Michigan State.  Even with the bad mechanics, this dude is having an unbelievable year.  Nebraska is still a run first spread offense, and they will run twice for every throw, but they have been effective in both aspects.  The Michigan secondary has not been testing much this season.  They keep doing extremely well in passing plays in front of them, but no team outside of Alabama has been a threat to stretch the field.  The Spartans tried a couple of times last week, and the receivers had some separation but Maxwell was not able to hit them. Nebraska will take some shots and will test our cornerbacks.  The Michigan secondary has been very good at stepping up against the run, but they have been confident to do that with little worry of getting beat downfield.  They will not be able to be as aggressive in the run defense this week.  Michigan is still struggling at generating a consistent pass rush, so if Martinez is able to sit in the pocket he will be able to find one of his talented receivers or tight end for big chunks of yards.  Mattison has been offsetting this the past few weeks with a heavy blitz package, but Martinez is such a threat to run when he sees a gap that I don't think the Wolverines will be able to come after him as much as they would like.  The blitzes will need to be well masked, and there will be more reliance on the cornerbacks in coverage.  Advantage Nebraska, if Jake Ryan and Craig Roh can get pressure, the advantage decreases significantly.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Nebraska Rush Defense

The Husker defense is nowhere near the skill level of Michigan State's. The Michigan offensive line continues to get better, and they should have a big week in Lincoln.  The Husker front seven has a few play makers, but their team speed will be out matched.  Again, it will be important to get a running back going to take some focus off of Denard.  Fitz looked better at times last week, and it would be nice to see him break out tomorrow night.  It will be interesting to see if Al Borges trusts Denard with more of the play book this week, because last year Michigan had a great offensive game plan and Denard looked unstoppable.  Even if we are stuck with the ultra-conservative running offense we have seen the past 3 weeks, Denard will likely break at least one big run.  Nebraska's only chance at stopping him last year was LaVonte David, but their linebacker speed is just not enough to lock down number 16 all night.  I still will like to see Gallon and Fitz get more involved in the running attack.  I think Michigan will end with a 7+ ypc night. Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Nebraska Pass Defense

This is the big mystery here.  The game plan for Notre Dame was just wrong, Borges opened up more of his own play book and it just doesnt work for Denard.  The problem is now it seems that the coaching staff does not trust the senior quarterback at all and are playing each possession as just dont turn the ball over.  Denard has been a lot better at ball security the last 3 weeks, but I dont know if the coaches are ready to take the training wheels back off.  The problem is that Denard can be an effective passer, but the plays Borges wants to run are just too complex.  Give Denard a 1 or 2 option quick throw, and if its not there insist that he pulls the ball down and takes off. Welcome to Nebraska/ Ohio State 2011 (2 of Denard's best games as a quarterback and not just a runner). The Husker secondary also has not been testing this season, although they are very talented.  Denard might have plenty of time to make his reads, but he will have to be very accurate because the receivers will not have much separation all night.  If Michigan can run some easy throwing plays early to get Denard to settle down in the hostile environment it could be a long night for the Nebraska defense. I just don't think it will start that way.  Borges will have to realize that he cannot beat every team left on the schedule by lining up and running the same 3-4 plays and expect to get 300 yards on the ground and win the game. Denard needs to throw the ball.  It will keep the safeties out of the box and give Gallon or Fitz a better chance of actually getting consistent yards. I would like to see Funchess in more of a pass catching role, because Nebraska does not have an athlete to cover him.  The problem with Devin though is he is a 6'5" 225 lb freshman, and he blocks like one.  Michigan State completely manhandled him all game last weekend, and Funchess was not able to be a factor in the passing game.  I am not sure who to give the advantage to in this section because it really depends on the game plan and execution.  Denard could have a 15-20 250 yard game against this defense, but he could also have a 9-24 with 3 interceptions.  Until Borges and Denard prove they can get consistent yards in the air, I will give this advantage a push.

Michigan has been better at ball control recently, and will need that to continue on the road tomorrow night.  They cannot lose the turnover battle and expect to win.  Nebraska on the other hand finds the adventure in turnovers and likes to do it at least twice a game.  It will be important for our defense to be able to recover the 1-2 guaranteed footballs that hit the turf.  Martinez also has a knack for throwing pick sixes.  This will be a big factor to watch during this game.  If either team can get to a +2 margin, it will take quite the effort for them to lose.  Prediction time, I do think Michigan gets a +2 turnover margin on the road.  Nebraska has not been held to less than 29 points yet this year, but I think that streak will end this week.  Taylor Martinez and the offense will get their yards, but turnovers and their defense's lack of ability to stop the Michigan offense will end up being the deciding factor.  Michigan 31 Nebraska 27.

B1G Week 9 Preview

It is a big week in the B1G.  We should be able to find out the best teams in each division at this point in the season, and the bowl invites will start to work themselves out.  The power rankings should get a decent shake up next week.

Iowa (4-3, 2-1) @ Northwestern (6-2, 2-2) Saturday 12:00pm
The outcome of this game will go a long ways in determining bowl picks at the end of the season.  The winner of this game could sneak into a January 1st bowl, or even 2nd place in the Legends Division.  Mark Weisman should be healthier for the Hawkeyes this week, which will be a big challenge for the Wildcats to defend.  On the other side of the ball though, Venric Mark has been great all season and should continue this weekend.  I think this game comes down to the quarterbacks, and even with Northwestern's multiple quarterbacks they have performed better than James Vandenberg.  I think the Wildcats win a close game at home for homecoming.

Indiana (2-5, 0-3) @ Illinois (2-5, 0-3) Saturday 12:00pm
Could it really happen that one of these teams gets their first conference win before Purdue? It is definitely a possibility.  Illinois is just terrible this season, and even though these teams are ranked 11 and 12 respectively in my power rankings, there is a huge gap between them.  Even though the Hoosiers are on the road, I think they outscore the Illini and Indiana gets there first conference win for Coach Wilson.

Purdue (3-4, 0-3) @ Minnesota (4-3, 0-3) Saturday 3:30pm
This game could eliminate the loser from bowl contention, which is astounding since Purdue was "supposed" to be in Indy this season.  I dont know if Purdue has any fight left in them after blowing the game in Columbus last weekend. On paper this game should not be close, but the Boilers are just really struggling right now.  I think they are able to force at least one interception from the Gopher freshman quarterback, but I dont trust Caleb TerBush as far as I could throw him.  It has potential to be a very ugly game, but I think Minnesota pulls out the game with a late field goal. 

Michigan State (4-4, 1-3) @ Wisconsin (6-2, 3-1) Saturday 3:30pm
The Badgers have not seen a defense like the Spartans, but Michigan State would struggle to score in walk throughs right now. I just don't know if Andrew Maxwell can lead the offense into enough points to win this game.  They have not allowed over 20 points in any loss this season, yet their season is all but over.  I think Le'Veon Bell will bounce back a bit this game and get over 100 again.  The Spartan defense will slow the Badger running attack, but I think Stave is able to hit a receiver or tight end for one big play off of play action.  I dont think Wisconsin gets to 20 points, but finds a way to win the game and the Spartans are in jeopardy of making a bowl game.

Ohio State (8-0, 4-0) @ Penn State (5-2, 3-0) Saturday 5:30pm
In my game of the week, Happy Valley should be rocking for their biggest home game of the season.  The winner will take the title of best team in the Leaders Division.  Ohio State has been flirting with their first loss of the season for most of the year, and I think this is the week it happens.  I would like them to stay undefeated until Michigan heads down there, but a Buckeye loss is not the end of the world. Penn State has a very good defense, and the only good defense they have seen held them to 17 points.  I think Mauti and company will slow down the Buckeye offense enough to give McGloin and company a chance in this game.  I dont trust Ohio State's defense, and Penn State is playing its best football of the season right now.  I think they make enough plays to beat the Buckeyes by less than a touchdown.  If Braxton Miller is fully healthy, then it could be a different story, but I think he has his worst game of the season. 

Week 9 Upset Alert

My upset picks have taken a down turn the past few weeks, so I am going to try to redeem myself this week.  I have learned my lesson with Oregon State, while I still think they are over-rated I will leave them off my upset watch this week with the hope that maybe they will lose this time around. 

Florida @ Georgia Saturday 3:30pm
Florida is somehow ranked number 2 in the BCS right now, which makes me really upset.  Obviously the computers or voters have not been actually watching football, but just looking at the scores.  At this point, in my mind, Oregon is clearly the 2nd best team in the country right now, but they are only number 4 in the standings.  I know this is not how the rankings will stay, but a playoff cannot come soon enough. Georgia is loaded with talent. They crashed and burned in their first marquee game of the year at South Carolina, but this is a rivalry game.  I think the Bulldogs had a little bit of a look ahead last weekend against Kentucky, and a line of 7 points in the Gators favor seems really high.  I think Georgia comes into the biggest cocktail party and really pushes Florida.  I think the talented defense will finally step up, and Florida heads back to the swamp out of BCS title contention. 

Ohio State @ Penn State Saturday 5:30pm
Like I mentioned in the B1G Week 8 recap, I think the Buckeyes are primed for a loss in the near future.  I dont know if the team is losing focus because they cannot win a B1G title this year, or they are getting overly confident, but they have flirted with the L quite a few times this season.  Saturday evening will be Ohio State's first major road test. Yes, they played in East Lansing, but Spartan Stadium is not Beaver Stadium.  It will be interesting to see if Braxton Miller is really 100% after going down last week.  I think the Ohio State offense will struggle with communication enough that it forces a few extra penalties or maybe even a turnover.  This game is the biggest of the Nittany Lion season, and I think they play up for it and take over as the Leaders Division's best team.

It is a short list this weekend, but a few more games to look out for will be to see how USC fares heading to Tucson where Rich Rod's team is a completely different beast at home.  The defense of the Trojans will be tested, it should be an exciting game though. I am going to be rooting hard for the Sooners this weekend when they host Notre Dame.  I think Oklahoma is the better team, but a 5th ranked team vs number 8 at home doesnt seem like an upset to me.  The last game to look out for will be Michigan State traveling to Wisconsin.  This has become quite the rivalry the past few years, and both teams are trending in opposite directions.  It will be interesting to see how the Spartans respond after a tough loss to big brother last week, if they show the heart that Spartan fans think they have this is going to be another fun game.  Wisconsin has not seen a defense like this, and I dont think they will be able to run wild against the green and white.  Will Joel Stave be able to make enough throws to pull out the win at home?

B1G Week 8 Recap

We are almost half way through the B1G conference season, and the Leader’s Division looks all but wrapped up at this point.  The clear best two teams are ineligible for the post season, which leaves Wisconsin with a large advantage in going back to Indianapolis or the second straight year.  The Badgers are the only team in this division (outside of Penn State and Ohio State) that have a conference win.  The Legends Division could be closer to decided after this weekend when then top contenders meet up in Lincoln.

The Good:

I am just going to go with the entire Penn State team for this first bullet.  They went into Kinnick Stadium and put down one of the most defining beat downs of the season for the B1G.  They had not won there since 1999, but in Bill O’Brien’s first season they built up a 38-0 lead before allowing two late touchdowns.  The Nittany Lions were firing on all cylinders, both offensively and defensively.  This weekend’s showdown in the ineligi-bowl should be fun. 

Taylor Martinez continued as the B1G’s most efficient passer.  Yes, that is correct.  The B1G is struggling to produce real threats in the passing game, but he has come a long ways from last season.  Even in good years, Martinez would be near the top with a 67% completion rate.  He shredded the Northwestern defense with 342 passing yards, 65 rushing yards, and 4 touchdowns.  It looks like Braxton Miller has some competition for B1G offensive player of the year.

Wisconsin’s running attack continues to put up big numbers.  It is still a little unknown if this is due to their offensive line improvement combined with Montee Ball and company hitting the holes with less hesitation, or the horrible B1G rushing defenses.  It will be fun to see them up against Michigan State’s defense this weekend. 

The Bad:

For the first time I will put Ohio State’s offense.  They were all but shut down against Purdue for most of the game.  The same Purdue that has given up over 300 rushing yards in their first two conference games.  Miller and Hyde combined for just 135 yards before Braxton got thrown to the ground like a rag doll.  The Buckeye team seems to be skating by in a lot of games this season, and looks primed for a loss to refocus them. 

Northwestern blew another double digit 4^th quarter lead.  If they only played 3 quarters, the Wildcats would be undefeated still and looking like a real threat to make it to Indianapolis after beating 2 of the top 5 teams.  Instead, they are all but out of the Legend’s Division race with Iowa and Michigan still left on the schedule.

The Ugly:

I am going to have to go with Iowa with the award this week.  They are coming off what seemed like a huge conference road win in East Lansing, and were looking like a real threat in the B1G.  They returned home to face Penn State and forgot to show up for the game.  They were manhandled in every facet of the game.  With games against Northwestern, Nebraska, and Michigan left, the Hawkeyes might struggle to make a bowl game.

I would say that my conference rankings are as follows:

1.       Michigan (no change)

2.       Ohio State (down 1)

2.    Penn State (up 1)

4.    Wisconsin (no change)

5.    Nebraska (up 1)

6.    Northwestern (down 1)

7.    Michigan State (up 1)

8.    Purdue (up 1)

9.    Iowa (down 2)

10.  Minnesota (no change)

11.  Indiana (no change)

12.  Illinois (no change)

Week 8: Michigan State Recap

It has been another busy week of work, so I apologize for delaying the usual college football articles.  I will try to get up to date this afternoon as I have a long break between training sessions. If you didn't realize this yet, the Michigan Wolverines ended their 4 game losing streak to the in-state rivals last Saturday and moved into the leading contender in the Legend's Division.  While the game was not pretty for really any of the 60 minutes, Big Blue emerged as the winner and the celebration ensued.

I was able to predict Michigan State's final score, but I was a little off on Michigan's effectiveness on offense.  They did score 4 times, just not 3 TDs and 1 FG.  While in the game I had a horrible feeling that Michigan State was going to find a way to steal the game and continue Mark Dantonio's success in the rivalry.  After watching the replay, it really seemed like Michigan outplayed the Spartans all game, but they were unable to put them away.  It reminded me of a Lloyd Carr coached game.  For the 4th game in a row I came away very impressed with the defensive effort put forth by the guys in the winged helmets. It is incredible what this coaching staff is doing with the talent they have on the field.  It looks like after the Alabama debacle, they will still finish with one of the top defenses in the conference.  Do you realize that Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, and possibly Nebraska, Penn State, Illinois have more "talent" on the defensive side of the ball this year, yet Michigan is out performing most of them.  I feel like a broken record at this point, but the defensive line continues to impress me every week.  Yes, the Spartan offensive line was disheveled with injuries, and Michigan took advantage.  They look like a completely different unit that played in Dallas against Alabama.  But look at the remaining schedule, there is not an offensive line left that even loosely resembles the Crimson Tide's.  Wisconsin's group seems to keep improving, but are still falling short of preseason expectations.  We would only meet them in Indianapolis with a B1G Title on the line.  The only other worrying matchup would be the January 1st bowl that the Wolverines are slated to be invited to (whether it is the Rose Bowl against USC or Capital One Bowl against LSU).  Mattison has begun slanting the defensive line to help them move to a point instead of just stand up and lose leverage, like in Alabama.  In addition to that, the line backers are also slanting, but in the opposite direction of the defensive line.  This has basically doubled up the improvement we have seen on the field. By moving the line backers across the grain, it prevents them from getting and offensive lineman size them up and eliminate them from a play.  It also really helps with the decision problems Morgan and Demens were showing early in the season.  You could make a very legitimate argument that this group is the best in the B1G, and Kenny Demens and Jake Ryan should be getting all conference hype.  The linebackers have been a big reason why this year's defense has been almost as dominant on short yardage situations.  On a 2nd and 6 when MSU was driving, Desmond Morgan was getting blocked but still managed to tackle the 247 pound Le'Veon Bell with a full head of steam, with just one arm.  He stopped him dead in his tracks, that is some serious strength. The players that went above and beyond on Saturday were Craig Roh, all 3 linebackers, and Jordan Kovacs.  I haven't talked about the secondary yet today, but I will mention that JT Floyd struggled in the first quarter to cover Aaron Burbridge and it was clear Michigan State wanted to attack his side of the field. Somehow he turned things around to make the Spartans avoid him for most of the remaining 3 quarters.  He has really improved in stepping up to help with the run game, and has very good technique in coverage. He still struggles with top end speed, but I will take that over struggling with technique and speed like he did in 2010.  This defense seems to really trust each other and each player goes out and does his job and relies on teammates to do theirs. They are playing as a unit, and this is really fun to watch! Just think about what this defense will look like when they get an elite pass rushing defensive lineman... I just got a little giddy.

Ok, this post has already gotten a little long, but I want to mention the offense a little bit.  The play calling was very interesting for the second straight game against Michigan State. Al Borges continues to play the season close to the vest after the Notre Dame debacle.  Michigan State keyed on Denard running the ball all game and basically limited him to very little positive yards outside of the one long run.  The Spartans were not worried about Fitz running at all, and trusted their cornerbacks to play single coverage.  I would have liked to see Gallon get the ball a little more, whether in bubble screens or jet sweeps.  Maybe Michigan State's defense was too fast to make those effective.  I also would have liked to see Funchess get involved with the offense a little more.  With the aggressive, blitzing, scheme of the Spartans the middle of the field was open again.  It is looking for likely that Borges just doesnt trust Denard to throw short routes over the middle of the field which could be a result of him being relatively short.  The same statement about the defensive line applies for the offense as well.  Michigan will not face a defense even close to Michigan State's until the bowl game.  After the personal foul after the first play of the game on Lewan, he really held his own against Gholston for the 2nd year in a row.  It is looking more likely that this will be big number 77's last season in Ann Arbor.

Michigan now leads in the Legend's Division, and has a chance to really put their foot in the door of the championship game with a win in Lincoln this weekend.  It looks like a two team race between Nebraska and the Wolverines.  Iowa still only has 1 loss as well, but they still have to play Northwestern, Michigan, and Nebraska.  If Michigan can win the remaining games on their schedule, there will be no doubt that they deserve a spot in the Rose Bowl.  The Wolverines are even in a place if they win the rest of their games in the regular season and happen to lose in Indianapolis, they could continue the B1G's streak of getting two teams in the BCS.  Lets just focus on this next week as it will be the toughest game of the year with regards to the goal of the season of winning the B1G.

2012 World Series Preview: Tigers vs Giants

The 2012 World Series starts tonight as the Detroit Tigers look for their first championship in 28 years.  In other words, their first in my lifetime.  If you aren’t excited already, you have 5 hours to get pumped.  If you can’t get excited for this you are either a Michigan State fan or are in a coma. But I am trying to refrain from all of the local (and national) media hype already crowning a Tigers victory in 5 games or less.  I know it is a different year, with two different teams, but this is reminding me of 2006.  So instead of predicting the outcome, I want to point out some key matchups in this series and be thankful that I get to watch at least 4 more Detroit Tigers games this season. 

Before getting the brooms back out or blindly expecting the Tigers to win, you need to know your enemy.  The San Francisco Giants are built the same way as they were in 2010, when as big underdogs they knocked off the Texas Rangers in the Fall Classic.  This baseball team is built around starting pitching, good defense, and clutch hitting.  Over the past 5 years, the Giants have consistently been in the bottom half of runs scored, but they find ways to win.  The 7 game NLCS affected their starting rotation, which should help the Tigers. However, they are still primed to have Matt Cain pitch in Game 3 and Game 7 if needed.  Jim Leyland does not believe in throwing your ace on short rest (Game 1, 4 and 7), so us Tiger fans should hope the series does not last the full distance.  San Francisco does have 2 big question marks in the starting rotation, Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito.  The Freak has struggled all season, but has been dominant out of the bullpen this postseason.  They might be forced to start him in Game 4.  Barry Zito, the 80 million dollar man, was not even included on the Giants post season roster in 2010, but now the team has won his last 13 starts.  It is the best we have seen Zito look since he left Oakland.  He gets the nod tonight in Game 1 against JV, which might sound like a huge mismatch, but the Tigers have really struggled against crafty left handed pitchers this season.  It will be important to get to Zito quickly so he doesn’t fall into a rhythm at home. 

Offensively, the Giants have 2 well known names and a bunch of role players.  The problem is these role players are scorching hot at the plate right now.  People know about Buster Posey, the likely NL MVP, and Pablo Sandoval.  But Marco Scutaro just set an NLCS record for 14 hits in one series and won the MVP.  Hunter Pence has been picking up clutch hits with runners on base all October.  Angel Pagan has hit 2 lead off homeruns. Even their pitchers are picking up hits.  It is not often when a team loses a potential MVP candidate (Melky Cabrera), and somehow gets better offensively and pulls away in their division.  The Yankees have more stars in their lineup, but the Giants are firing on all cylinders.  If the Tiger starting pitchers post a sub 1 ERA and WHIP again, it will be one of the best post seasons of all time.  I don’t expect it to happen.

San Francisco is 6-0 in elimination games this post season.  They only have 7 total wins.  At this point, fans on each side can make the argument that either team is one of destiny.  Both are playing their best baseball of the season, so it only seems right that they meet for the trophy.  The Tigers will have to shake off the rust quickly tonight, and that includes Verlander.  All I know is who cares about work, because this is going to be fun to watch.

Some key factors to look out for in this series:

Defensively, the Tigers have tightened up so far in the playoffs, but this was the first thing to go in 2006 with the 7 day layoff. It will be important for the Tigers to not give the Giants extra outs, because this time of year they always seem to come back and hurt you.

It is unlikely for Detroit’s starting pitchers to continue on their path of domination, so it will be important to limit the walks issued.  San Francisco batters are susceptible to the strike out, so the strike out kings need to keep pumping in strikes.

San Francisco will not allow Miguel and Prince to beat them in a 7 game series, so who will step up this time around. In the ALDS it was Don Kelly, Avisail Garcia, and Omar Infante.  In the ALCS, it was Jhonny Peralta, Delmon Young, and Andy Dirks.  The Tigers big 2 are better than the Giants big 2, but Detroit will be in good shape if their supporting cast also outshines San Francisco’s.

Go Tigers!

Week 8: Michigan State Preview

In case you haven’t heard, Michigan plays their 2^nd of 3 major rivals this weekend in Michigan State.  This was the preseason B1G game of the year, it was supposed to decide the best team in the conference and which team would be representing the Legend’s Division in Indianapolis.  I guess this is why they actually play the games on the field.  Sparty’s only chance at back-to-back conference championship games is to win out, meanwhile Michigan firmly sits on top of the Legend’s Division.  This really reminds me of some early 2000 matchups where Michigan State’s season seems to be hanging by a thread heading into Michigan week.  A loss could cause them to lose all fight and finish with 6+ losses, or a win could keep their fading hopes alive. You already know which side I am on.

Michigan State Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense

The Spartans main offensive threat is with running back Le’Veon Bell.  He is averaging nearly 5 yards per carry this season, even though the offensive line in front of him has been decimated with injuries.  This guy is a 245+ pound battering ram that somehow has enough athleticism to make cornerbacks miss in the open field.  Just in case you don’t understand how big this running back is, he would be Michigan’s heaviest linebacker.  Even with the front 5 struggling for the green and white, the key for Michigan to continue holding opponents under 15 points will be to force Michigan State into predictable passing situations.  This means stopping the run on 1^st and 2^nd downs. The defensive line is going to have to use their improvement and new found confidence to get some push through the blockers in front of them.  The linebackers will only be able to hit Bell and drop him at the point of contact is if they have free lanes of attack.  I actually think the defensive line will win the battle up front tomorrow, but Bell can be too good sometimes.  He will likely make enough guys miss around the line of scrimmage to keep his YPC average around 4.  If he gets up to 6 yards or above, it will be a very long game for Michigan.  Advantage Michigan State, it is not too often where you give the edge to the offense when you expect the defensive line to control the line of scrimmage. That is how good Bell can be.

Michigan State Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense

This is the biggest question mark of the game for me.  Andrew Maxwell seems to be improving little by little each week as a quarterback, but the MSU Offensive Coordinator keeps calling horrible plays that limit any production from the Spartan unit.  Aaron Burbridge has stepped in as a true freshman to be one of the conference’s best receivers.  He will be the first down field threat we have faced since Alabama.  Also, Andrew Maxwell will be the best pocket passer this defense has faced since AJ McCarron in game 1.  Yes, the Michigan secondary has absolutely dominated quarterbacks that cannot throw downfield, but this weekend is a different animal.  Even if MSU is not able to complete any deep balls, they will at least try a few times.  This will be more than Illinois or Purdue combined.  Another x factor heading into tomorrow’s game is will Dion Sims be able to play with his high ankle sprain.  He looks doubtful right now, but I have to believe he will try to gut it out to start, but will he be effective?  Even with the offensive line struggling so much for Michigan State, Michigan has not proven it can get a consistent pass rush without blitzing 2+ guys. If the ends (Roh, Beyer, or any of their backups) can beat the tackles in front of them and force Maxwell out of the pocket, it could be a good game for the Michigan pass defense.  The weather looks to be another factor in this game too. On paper this looks like one of the big advantages for Michigan, but I am still not completely sold that it will play out like that.  I do think MSU will get a couple big passing plays, possibly on a 3^rd and long, but in general I think Maxwell will have an average day.  They should still struggle to move the ball with any consistency.  Advantage Michigan slightly.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Michigan State Rush Defense

 The Spartans have outrushed the Wolverines in each of these last 4 victories, and a big part of that is the MSU defense seems to be built perfectly to stop a half spread offense like Michigan.  Big Blue struggles to line up and run the ball from under center, and they have been unable to take advantage of the Spartans extremely aggressive defensive ends. This year Michigan State is without Jerel Worthy, who has been the Michigan killer the past 2 seasons.  While their defensive line is still one of the best in the conference, it has lost a lot of its push capabilities. If Michigan can have success running up the middle for more than 4 ypc, the Wolverines should have no problem scoring 20+ points. That is a big ask for this offensive line.  It will be very important to mix in some play action passes or screens to offset the blitzing linebackers.  Last year Michigan coaches could not adjust and the offense played out the definition of insanity (keep doing the same thing with the expectation of getting a different outcome). The Michigan running backs have been quiet this season, but Denard is showing why he is the best player in college football when he has an opening while running. I think the play calling will be better prepared for the Spartan defense, which will allow Denard to get outside more than in years past.  But, don’t expect Michigan to rush for 300+ yards again this week.  Advantage Push.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Michigan State Pass Defense

The Michigan State cornerbacks were hyped up almost as much as William Gholston was in the preseason.  Johnny Adams was even a late first round draft pick projection.  So far this unit has been disappointing for Mark Dantonio.  The Narduzzi defensive mind-set puts the cornerbacks on an island for the majority of every game, but so far this season the pass rush has not be as effective as they would like and receivers are finding separation down field. The key in this battle will be how will the interior offensive line and extra blocking running back be able to control Michigan State’s a gap blitzes that killed Michigan the past 2 seasons.  If Denard is getting pressured all day and looks rushed, he will likely have at least 1 terrible turnover and possibly 1-2 more reasonable ones. However, if number 16 has time to look down the field, I have confidence that the receivers and or tight ends will be able to make plays on some throws.  Al Borges will need to call some short passes to get Denard into a little rhythm passing the ball, and not expect him to run play action passes out of the I formation with only 2 routes (cough Notre Dame cough).  If the pass rush does not get Denard consistently, Michigan could continue their better than average offensive production. If Denard is running for his life throwing into triple coverage, it might be a long afternoon.  Advantage Michigan State slightly (based on the Denard factor still).

It will be interesting to see if Michigan’s game plan changes much from the last two games.  Even against a “better” defense in Notre Dame, Michigan ran the ball down their throat for most of the game and got into trouble when they put the ball into the air. If Denard can keep his passing attempts to 16-20, Michigan will be controlling the line of scrimmage and the ground game.  If he is forced to throw the ball more, this game could be a tossup. I do think the Spartan defense is slightly better than Michigan’s, but Michigan’s offense has a bigger edge over Michigan State’s.  The game will come down to turnovers, and if Denard can keep the slate clean for the third straight week Michigan will win this game.  Denard had owned Notre Dame in his career up until this season, but has been owned by Michigan State.  Can he turn the tables on this rivalry this season?  I sure hope so.  I like the way Michigan is playing football right now, and I just think the home field advantage and more dynamic offense will end up edging Michigan State.  Michigan wins 24-13.

B1G Week 8 Preview

This is the first week of conference play where most of the "contenders" play each other.  The division races will be a lot clearer after Saturday.  Last week of picks were my worst of the season.  In the 2 games that I did pick correctly, I missed badly on the details of the game (NW wins in a shootout, and OSU wins by 30+).  Lets see if I can get this train back on track.  For the record, I am still doing better than ESPN B1G Bloggers.

Purdue (3-3) @ Ohio State (7-0) Saturday 12:00pm
Well I went with Purdue in a close win over Wisconsin and got burned, so I am done with the struggling Boilers for the time being.  Ohio State has its flaws, but they aren't big enough to allow most conference teams to capitalize on them.  Purdue cannot stop the run lately, and this looks like the 3rd week in a row where they will surrender at least 250 yards on the ground.  Miller and Hyde will each have big games.  On the defensive side of the ball, Purdue really lacks play-makers so Ohio should be in attack mode all game. This one will get out of hand, Ohio State big.

Minnesota (4-2) @ Wisconsin (5-2) Saturday 12:00pm
Both teams have 2 losses, but both are trending in opposite directions at the moment.  Minnesota has lost two games in a row, and Wisconsin has bounced back very well from the painful loss at Nebraska with 2 big wins.  The Golden Gophers struggle at stopping the run, and the Badgers will exploit that all day long.  The Wisconsin offensive line continues to improve each week, and they are in the driver's seat of making it to back to back championship games. Wisconsin should wear down Minnesota, and win big.

Nebraska (4-2) @ Northwestern (6-1) Saturday 3:30pm
This is my game of the week in the conference.  Both teams really need a win to keep their conference title hopes alive. Nebraska was stunned last year at home against the Wildcats, so payback should be on the mind of the returning players.  The Husker offense is very talented.  The Wildcats will struggle to slow down Nebraska's running attack.  While Northwestern has a decent offense of its own, I just cannot see them matching Big Red point for point.  As much as I would like to see Northwestern win this game, I think Nebraska ends up running away with it.

Penn State (4-2) @ Iowa (4-2) Saturday 8:00pm
Both teams are 2-0 in conference play, but only one is post seasone eligible.  So, this game is more important for Iowa to stay in front of the Legend's Division.  The Nittany Lions were the conference's hottest team 2 weeks ago, but after a bye week and 2 blow out wins for Michigan, they have given up that title.  It will be interestinng to see how Matt McGloin and company come off the break.  Penn State has not won in Iowa City since 1999.  Even though Iowa is coming off of their best win of the season, I still do not think they are very good.  I think Matt Mauti and company shut down the Hawkeye running attack, and so far James Vandenberg has not shown he can win a game with his arm.  Penn State breaks the losing streak at Iowa and the Hawkeyes are on the outside on the Legend's Divison race.

Week 8 Upset Alert

I was not as successful with my upset picks last week, so I am looking to rebound in week 8.  As I look at the slate of games this week, I am finding it difficult to find multiple choices for this entry.

LSU @ Texas A&M Saturday 12:00pm
LSU is coming off of a big win against South Carolina where they played their best game of the season.  If the Tigers can continue that play on the road this week, LSU should have little trouble against the Aggies. The problem is that I don't think this team can play back to back high level games, and their offense seems to really struggle on the road.  I am really excited to see A&M freshman quarterback Manziel against the stout defensive line from LSU.  The SEC opener of A&M vs Florida is shaping up to be one of the best games in the entire conference this season.  TAMU has one of the best offenses in the conference, and the best rushing attack in the country, LSU prides itself on stopping the run.  Something will have to break in this game.

Virginia Tech @ Clemson Saturday 12:00pm
Virginia Tech looked dead last week as they started down 20-0 against Duke in the first quarter.  They roared back quickly to win 41-20.  I think that win gave this Hokie team some confidence heading into the showdown at Clemson.  On paper, this game doesnt look like it will be close, but the problem is that I have so little respect for the ACC that I think any team can beat another any week.  Also, I don't like much about Clemson, so go Hokies.

Kansas State @ West Virginia Saturday 7:00pm
The Mountaineers are coming off a complete beat down last week against Texas Tech.  I have to believe that they will have to bounce back this weekend.  West Virginia kept flirting with close games the prior two weeks, and Tech was able to just knock them out at home.  I think Geno Smith and company are refocused and will look like one of the best teams in the Big12 again this weekend.  As much as I like Kansas State most years, I just really think they are over-rated in the top 5, and I am still a little upset that they were ranked higher at the end of 2011 than Michigan was.  I know the Wildcat defense is one of the best in the no defense league, but I think Geno will be better at home and lead his team to a marquee victory.

Reach pick: Florida State @ Miami Saturday 8:00pm
I will use my logic from above, that I don't respect anyone in the ACC and really don't like Florida State.  So, as bad as Miami looked against Notre Dame, I think they can bounce back and make this game a little more respectable against their rival.  Now, this is a long reach, because the Seminoles could just as easily win by 45+ points.

B1G Week 7 Recap

The B1G standings are becoming more clear as we ventured through another week of conference play.  The thing that might be the most clear at this time is that the B1G is still really bad.  Likely the best thing that happened on Saturday was Michigan’s dominating performance, but I already covered that so I will try to find some other encouraging outcomes from last week.

The Good:

Montee Ball is gaining confidence each week, and last week he busted out for 247 yards and broke the B1G record for career touchdowns.  It is looking like Purdue is just not very good, but going for almost 250 yards is impressive against anyone.  It will be interesting to see if he can turn things around to get back into the player of the year conversation.

Northwestern got a big road conference win against Minnesota.  It doesn’t look like either team is great, but Northwestern is still in the division race after 3 weeks.  This week will be a big test for the Wildcats against Nebraska. This falling under the good section is a pretty decent reach, so you can understand how little B1G teams accomplished last week.

The Bad:

Ohio State’s defense.  The “best team” in the conference surrendered 49 points against Indiana.  I know the Hoosier offense has improved a lot in year 2 of Kevin Wilson, but a top 10 team should not give up 50 points to any unranked team.  They couldn’t tackle, they couldn’t get pressure on the quarterback, and they really seemed to miss their best linebacker Sabino.  They will need to turn things around before playing Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan.

Purdue will fall under the bad section this week.  Before conference play, many “experts” picked Purdue to make the B1G Championship Game this year, but so far they have lost 2 games by a combined score of 82-27.  This is not the team that will be playing in Indianapolis, unless Hope turns things around to save his job.

The Ugly:

The Michigan State offense only scoring 13 points in a double overtime game against the Iowa Hawkeyes.  This is the same team that gave up 32 points to a terrible Central Michigan team.  I know Iowa has improved since that loss, but they do not look like a team that should be competing for a B1G title. The Spartans were likely looking ahead to this week against Michigan.  They are going to need their passing game to step up in a big way if they are going to score points in Ann Arbor.

I would say that my conference rankings are as follows:

1.        Ohio State (no change)

1.        Michigan (up 1)

3.    Penn State (no change)

4.    Wisconsin (up 4)

5.    Northwestern (down 1)

6.    Nebraska (down 1)

7.    Iowa (no change)

8.    Michigan State (down 2)

9.    Purdue (no change)

10.  Minnesota (no change)

11.  Indiana (no change)

        12.   Illinois (no change

Week 7: Illinois Recap

My blogging schedule has been all messed up this week due to a busy few days of work, but as the week draws to an end I will try to catch up on my normal articles.  The Michigan football team played their most complete game of the season last Saturday, which might result in many fans being over-confident for the upcoming matchup with Michigan State.  The Wolverines won their 4^th game of the season based on some stout short yardage defense and a couple of innovative offensive play calls.

Anytime that your team gets a shutout, the first positive has to be the defense.  I know Illinois is easily the worst conference team this year, but Michigan continued to improve on this side of the ball.  The defensive line continues to grow into a strength, which makes the linebackers look like the best unit in the B1G.  Illinois lost their starting quarterback early in the game, and they don’t really have any real downfield threats at receiver.  So, the Michigan secondary was not tested much, if at all, in this game.  Jake Ryan continues to grow into one of the best Michigan linebackers that I can remember watching.  Craig Roh has also become one of my favorite players just because of how much he has given to this program.  The guy is a 4 year starter, but at 3 different positions. Yes, he was one of the biggest recruits that Rich Rod got on the defensive side of the ball, and he might not have lived up to all of the expectations in regards to stats.  This guy has done anything that the coaching staff has requested, and has been a plus defender all 4 years.  The goal in the Rich Rod era was to have Roh play around 255 pounds, and not he is playing over 280 and is still making plays.  Hats off to him, and on senior day please give him the recognition he deserves.

I really liked some of the offensive play calling against Illinois.  Even though it was raining most of the game, Al Borges still decided to throw the ball more than I expected early on. Many different screen passes were called, with one going to Gallon for a long touchdown.  Michigan was just better than the opponent across the ball from them on Saturday. The most important part though was Denard did not turn the ball over for the 2^nd straight game. If he can keep the streak going this weekend, Michigan becomes much harder to beat.

Overall, Michigan beat Illinois like they should have (especially after Scheelhasse was injured), and there is not much we learned about the team this week.  The offense does seem to be gaining some confidence and momentum in B1G play.  The defense has been the most impressive.  They are following in the footsteps of the 2011 team, and are just becoming extremely fun to root for. Michigan will have its 3^rd difficult game of the season this Saturday.  Michigan State has been the most disappointing team in the conference so far this year, but they have been known to play their best game against Michigan.  Also, Denard has really struggled against aggressive, talented, defenses in his career, and the Spartans seem to have a very good game plan against him.  It should be a fun game to watch, and a very disappointing afternoon if Big Blue finds a way to lose.

Week 7: Illinois preview

Welcome, folks, to the Illinois preview.  Tomorrow's game will mark the half way point for the Wolverine season.  This team is looking like they are following a similar path as in 2011, the defense is starting to really come together and Al Borges is still trying to put a spread wizard into a west coast passer's role.  So far this season, Illinois has really struggled.  They are 2-4, but their closest lose has been 17 points. Before any games kicked off, the Illini were expected to have one of the better defenses in the conference with many NFL-caliber players returning.  At this point they would struggle to hold up against a slight breeze.  This week's game could get out of hand quickly, but Michigan will have to fight off the urge to look ahead to Michigan State next week.

Illinois Run Offense vs Michigan Run Defense
Well, the Wolverine font 7 seem to be coming together very well.  The defensive line is improving each week, which is allowing the linebackers to flow to the ball.  The Illini rushing attack is focused around QB Scheelhasse.  He is pretty elusive in the backfield and can create positive yards out of nothing.  If he can get a few nice runs, it will pull some focus away from RB Young.  Even if this does happen, however, Michigan should be able to control the line of scrimmage against this team.  The offensive line has struggled to open up any running lanes.  James Ross and Joe Bolden could see some significant playing time in this game.  I like the linebacking unit as a whole to have a big game.  Advantage Michigan

Illinois Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
As good as Scheelhasse is with his legs, he does not impress many with his arm.  Combine that with the Illini's lack of play makers at receiver, and this could make for a long day for Illinois.  Like I mentioned early, the Michigan defensive line should be able to control the line of scrimmage which could allow for open blitzing lanes for Jake Ryan. Illinois might try to stretch the field a little more than Purdue did last week, so it should give the secondary a little more of a challenge from a coverage perspective.  I think Michigan will record at least one interception, and Raymon Taylor continues to improve.  Hopefully this week will be a good tune up for what the Spartans will throw at them.  Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Run Offense vs Illinois Run Defense
I expect Michigan's game plan to be very similar to what we saw last week in West Lafayette.  The offensive line will be showcased in this game.  I like the way the left side of the line is getting push right now, and the Illini defensive front does not offer as big of a challenge as Purdue did.  I think all 5 guys have one of their best games in run blocking this season. It will be interesting to see how the carries are split up.  Will Denard run 15+ times and leave Fitz with only 10-15 carries?  Fitz needs to show some improvement with his field vision this week, and hopefully it results in a big day for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if he doubled his total rush yards tomorrow.  But, if he struggles again, how long will Hoke stay with him instead of Thomas Rawls.  Either way, I think Michigan cracks the 200 yard rushing mark again which will control the tempo and time of possession because like Coach Hoke said, "I really like our defense when our offense is on the field." Advantage Michigan

Michigan Pass Offense vs Illinois Pass Defense
I doubt Denard will attempt many more passes than he did last week (16).  The game might be closer than we would like, if he is forced to throw more.  I think Michigan will run some simple routes to get the ball to Gardner and Funchess, but will likely not show many new routes this week. If Denard does throw more passes, the Illini defense will be reliant around if CB Hawthorne can play.  He took a horrible looking shot last week and was knocked out with a concussion.  He is Illinois' best cornerback.  He would definitely slow Gardner down some. If he is not able to play, well it would be a long day for an over-matched secondary.  Advantage Michigan.

After looking at 4 of the main categories of this football game, it seems pretty easy that I am picking Michigan to win tomorrow.  The weather is supposed to be cold and rainy, so it will be interesting to see how it affects play calling and ball security.  It will be important for the Wolverines to continue to focus of not turning the ball over.  If they can finish the game with an even turnover margin or better, the Wolverines should have no problems getting their 4th win of the season.  I like Michigan, 38-16.

ALDS Recap: Tigers win series 3-2

It has been a while since I have blogged about the Tigers, but today just feels right with Detroit advancing to the ALCS for the second year in a row.  I am glad that the work week has been slow because it allowed me to stay up until the wee hours of the morning watching some really good baseball. 

I have been saying all season that even though the regular season record was disappointing for this year's Tiger team, if they could just get into the playoffs they would be a very tough out.  Oakland found that out the hard way, which is a little disappointing because the Athletics had an unbelievable season.  If Detroit failed to make the playoffs, Oakland would have been my rooting interest. 

I want to take a look at the series as a whole and try to think of what we can expect moving forward against either the Evil Empire or the new kids on the block.  The strength of the Oakland baseball team was their starting pitching, and I would definitely say the young guns lived up to that billing over this last week.  The problem for them was, Detroit's was just better.  People, do you understand just how good the starters were in these 5 games?  For a roster built on scoring 6 runs a game, it turned out to be better at giving up 2 or less a game.  The 4 pitchers combined to pitch 34.2 innings and gave up just 6 runs, 5 of them earned. That is a 1.30 ERA, for an entire playoff series!  Of course Justin Verlander is the leader of this group, but I was impressed with the 3 other guys as well.  We really didn't know what to expect from any of them, and I would say that 6 runs in 5 starts is pretty dang good. 

The offense definitely struggled against the A's.  It could be a testament to how good their starting pitchers are, but I think some of the blame falls on the 9 guys in with the old English D on their helmets.  The approaches to many at bats were subpar, and I would like to see better in the games to come.  Miggy and Biggy combined to go 9-41 (.220) with 1 home run and 3 RBI.  Just looking at those numbers, it seems like a miracle that the Tigers are even moving on.  These guys have carried the offense all season, they have to step up in the next series.  It seemed there were multiple times that the Tigers were on the doorstep of breaking the game open, and knocking out the A's pitcher early.  However, they failed to convert with RISP and took some bad cuts to end potential rallies. 

The bullpen looks extremely shaky still, but this was to be expected.  It is probably the biggest weakness of this team.  The relievers pitched an even 10 innings against Oakland, but allowed 5 runs to score.  I honestly do not feel safe with any of them coming into the game at this point.  Benoit is not locating well at all, Valverde is barely breaking 90 mph and forgot about his split-finger, Coke is allowing right handed hitters to hit .390 against him, and Alburquerque is walking almost 1 per inning.  I am just going to expect each starter to go 8 or 9, that seems realistic.

I could dive into the defense not tripping over itself, or Leyland's in-game decisions, but I want to vent about something that bothered me even more than the over-baked spud closer blowing game 4.  Was anyone else annoyed with the announcers after game 3?  It would have been sooner for me, but luckily MLB showed game 2 on MLB Network only so I had to listen to Dan & Jim.  It could have been that getting 4 or 5 hours a sleep the two nights before played a factor, but last night I wanted to drop kick my tv to put me out of my misery (and if you know me, you know that I happen to like my tv).  However, I came up with a better plan (thanks to the engineer in me), I turned the clowns on mute and listened to Dan & Jim with the 5 second radio delay and watched what happened on tv.  It was amazing how much it calmed me down.  Yes, we all know how great of a story Oakland was this year, but I don't need to hear about it between every pitch.  Yes, the umpire called some pitches strikes that were out of the zone, but the zone was consistent for both teams in ALL 5 games. Also, since when is it considered "chasing a fast ball" when it halves the plate and crosses at your belt?  If anything, that was a location mistake by JV last night.  I get annoyed very quickly with baseball announcers, mainly because they have so much time to fill during a 3.5 hour baseball game in a playoff series with the same 2 teams every night.  But, this does not give them an excuse to be completely mis-informed about my Detroit Tigers.  They are getting paid for talking, shouldn't they at least be expected to talk about facts?  All I can say is I hope we get assigned the A-team of announcers for the ALDS, or else Dan & Jim are going to be getting another listener very soon.

Looking ahead, the Tigers will either play tomorrow in New York or home against Baltimore.  I have to admit that getting home field advantage shapes up perfectly for Detroit's rotation.  Games 1 and 2 at home with Fister and likely Scherzer taking the mound, and then follow it up with JV in game 3 on the road.  That looks pretty intimidating for opposing lineups.  However, if we get to play the Yankees for the third playoffs in a row, we would have Justin still pitching game 3 when we come home to Detroit.  Does anyone else feel pretty confident with Verlander at Comerica?  Leyland really went with the matchups against Oakland (Berry and Avila out against lefties), but I would at least like to see Avila in the lineup more.  Yes, Laird hit better against lefties this year, but Avila is our franchise catcher and I want to see him behind the plate every game.  Other than this, I doubt the lineups will change much from what we saw this last week.  All I know is that I am going to enjoy the remaining October baseball that the Tigers get to play in 2012.  Let's go Tigers, and eat 'em up!

B1G Week 7 Preview

Overall, week 7 looks to be a pretty dull week in the B1G schedule.  The top 2 teams in the conference rankings play the worst two teams, and the 3rd best team has a bye week.  However, this week will have a major influence on the Leader's Division B1G Championship Game representative.  Last week my picks to win the games went very well, but the details of how each team won were a little off.  Lets see if I can do better this week.

Iowa (3-2) @ Michigan State (4-2) Saturday 12:00pm
As bad as Iowa played in the non-conference season, the Hawkeyes impressed me in their B1G opener against Minnesota.  Yes, I know the Gophers aren't very good, but Iowa took care of business and didn't let the over-matched team hang around very long.  This game should help sort out the contenders in the Legend's Division.  The loser here is all but eliminated from the title game. I can guarantee that this game will look more like "Big Ten football" than the Nebraska vs Ohio game last Saturday.  Both teams live and die with their giant running backs.  I will venture to say that whichever guy ends up with the better yards per carry will end up on the winning side of this game.  I am interested in seeing how Michigan State defends Iowa, because everyone knows their game plan.  If Weisman is continually getting into the 2nd level of the defense, it could be a long game for Sparty. Also, if either team builds an early lead, it will be very difficult for the other to come back with their suspect passing attacks.  As bad as Michigan State looked last week, I think they win a close low scoring game with a late score.

Northwestern (5-1) @ Minnesota (4-1) Saturday 12:00pm
This game is another key game for the Legend's Division standings.  I think most people assume Northwestern is the better team here, but the loser of this one will likely stay in the cellar of the division.  I am interested to see how Minnesota bounces back from getting dump trucked in their opener in Iowa City.  Quarterback Gray should be back for this game, which will put a lot of pressure on the Wildcat defense.  The same defense that gave up 22 points at Penn State last week.  The Gophers really struggled to defend the run against Iowa, and unfortunately for them, the run game is Northwestern's strength.  I think this one will be another close game, but in the end Northwestern's offense outscores Minnesota.

Wisconsin (4-2) @ Purdue (3-2) Saturday 12:00pm
I have selected this game as the marquee contest of the week.  Not because either team is neccesarily that good, but because the winner has the inside track at reach Indianapolis.  The Boilers had what they called their most important home game since 2007 last week against Michigan.  The fans didn't show up, and the Wolverines man-handled Purdue.  It will be interesting to see how they bounce back in this game.  I think the Purdue defensive line will do a better job at defending the run this weekend.  I doubt Wisconsin will get to 200 yards on the ground, let alone 300.  If the Boiler linebackers can step up and make some tackles, Purdue could win this one by double digits.  I doubt they can make enough consistent plays to control the game.  Purdue's secondary was not tested much last weekend, but Wisconsin will need to put the ball in the air more than Michigan did.  I predict Allen or Johnson to record another interception, but also for Abbrederis to break a big pass play open.  Wisconsin does have a very solid defense, and their pass rush continues to improve.  If they can get some pressure on TerBush, the Badgers will be very successful.  I don't think either offense is really great, so I think Purdue will pull out a very close, much needed, win at home with more key defensive plays than Wisconsin.

Ohio State (6-0) @ Indiana (2-3) Saturday 8:00pm
Ohio State showed over the past two weeks that they are the class of the B1G.  They have a very good shot at being undefeated when Michigan comes to town in late November.  The Hoosiers might have played their best half of football last week against Michigan State, too bad football games have 2nd halves.  Indiana is no match for the Buckeyes in this game, and their stadium offers very little home field advantage to make up that difference.  It will be interesting to see how the Buckeye defense performs without their most experienced linebacker playing.  Urban Meyer doesn't care about other team's feelings, so there is no reason to think that Braxton Miller will have less than 300 total yards in this one and the Buckeyes win by at least 30.

Week 7 Upset Alert

The week following the first Monster Week of the 2012 season seems to lack any big time upset candidates.  Even without many of the top rated teams getting pushed this Saturday, I can guarantee that it will be another great day of watching college football.

Fresno State @ Boise State Saturday 3:30pm
This pick is for a few reasons.  The first is because I think Boise State is over-rated, even at number 24. I have watched a parts of a couple different games, and it is clear the Broncos lost most of their experienced talent from last year's team.  They lack the play makers on both sides of the ball, but will likely make it through the season with only 1 loss.  The second reason is because I am really sick of Michigan State fans claiming their schedule has been the toughest in the nation because they are the only team to play 3 ranked opponents so far.  Never mind that Michigan has played two top 7 teams (Notre Dame eve has an outside shot at getting to the BCS Championship game against Alabama), and also the Spartans have played all three of these teams at home, whereas Michigan will play a total of ZERO ranked teams at home this season. So, normally I root for the Peterson led smurf-turfers, but I can't this year.  Go Dogs.

Oregon State @ BYU Saturday 3:30pm
Well, like Desmond Howard, I am not buying into the Beavers just yet.  I don't think they are very good.  I know all of this hype will go away soon enough, when OSU gets to take on the Ducks.  Their big time quarterback Mannion, who Wisconsin all but shut down, is out after knee surgery earlier this week.  I know BYU does not have one of their best teams this season, but I think the Cougars can push Oregon State at home and make this game closer than most expect.

Tennessee @ Mississippi State Saturday 9:00pm
The Bulldogs might be the most overlooked team in the SEC this season, which is hard to do when ESPN likes using their College Football segments to solely talk about the conference.  On paper, the Vols have their work cut out for them this week.  I just have a feeling that Tyler Bray is able to get some confidence to start the game and keep the score close for most of this game.

The standard pick this week are Stanford over Notre Dame, Washington at home to push USC, and Vanderbilt to give Florida problems in Nashville as the Gators are likely looking to next week's showdown with South Carolina.  I would love to see all of these teams lose this week, but I still don't know how good Stanford is especially on the road.  USC will likely continue on a Rose Bowl mission and not lose focus for the rest of the season.  Finally, the Commodores are just not very good and even if Florida starts slow, they are good enough to steam roll Vanderbilt.

B1G Week 6 Recap

Week 2 of the conference schedule had a few more close games, and we are starting to learn more about most teams.  There a fewer surprises at this point of the season, and more realistic expectations.  There are only 2 remaining teams with unbeaten conference records in each division, and only 2 total that are eligible for the post season. 

The Good:

Urban Meyer has come into Columbus and installed his unique offense very quickly.  Any transition is made easier when you have the talent that Meyer started with, but the Buckeyes are no longer a vanilla Tressel led team.  Braxton Miller will likely be the conferences lone Heisman threat for the next 3 seasons.  He has fit perfectly into this new offensive system.  He racked up another big night with 300+ total yards against the paper thin Nebraska defense.  If Carlos Hyde finds the end zone 4 times, you know something has gone very wrong for your defense.

Aaron Burbridge finally seeing the field.  Everyone from the area heard his name a lot last year when he was still a high school senior.  Michigan picked up 2 of his teammates, but could not sway the talented receiver from the green and white.  Well Dantonio realized what the nation did in week 1, that the receivers at Michigan State are absolutely horrible.  If WAR was a football stat, theirs might be negative. I am not sure why it has taken so long to get Burbridge off the bench, but now that he is don’t expect him to see it the rest of the season.  He led the Spartans in catches and yards, and Maxwell finally saw what a receiver getting separation looks like.  He instantly makes Michigan State much more difficult to defend.

Matt McGloin continues to impress under the new O’Brien regime at Penn State.  He is making a case for all conference honors at quarterback.  If you watched football the past two seasons, you will realize how shocking that would be.  McGloin has gone from useless walk-on to a polished quarterback who would likely be starting on at least 8 of the conference teams right now.  It will be exciting to see how long he can keep this up.

The Bad:

Northwestern’s 4^th quarter defense.  An average Penn State offense scored 22 points in the final frame Saturday to come from behind and knock the Wildcats from the ranks of unbeatens.  Penn State ran the ball effectively, threw the ball with ease, and also broke a lot of tackles in their last few drives.  Northwestern will need a bounce back performance this week at Minnesota.

The vaunted Nebraska defense was abused in The Shoe on national tv Saturday night.  They are still struggling to stop the run, and have complete breakdowns when facing a mobile quarterback.  Every position group in the Cornhusker defense was over matched against Ohio State.  If they don’t find a way to turn things around, Bo Pelini might be looking for another job sooner than we thought.

Michigan State’s first half against Indiana.  I am not sure if Sparty was overlooking the Hoosiers and came out flat, or if Indiana had a good game plan.  The Spartan offense looked inept against one of the worst defenses in the entire conference.  That was to be expected for one half, as it takes some time for the offensive line to wear down an opponent and get Le’Veon Bell free.  What was more concerning was the defensive play from what most people thought was one of the best units in the nation.  Indiana had 250+ yards through the air, and Michigan State produced no pass rush to slow it down.  If the Spartans really do have the best defense in the B1G, look for them not to have any lapses like this past Saturday.  Since they were able to come back and win in the 2^nd half, it kept them from the ugly category.

The Ugly:

I have to go with Illinois for this week.  They are just plain bad in Champagne this year.  In the first 6  games this season, the Illini have 4 17+ point losses. Their 31-14 loss to the Badgers was their closest of the season.  I thought there was enough talent left from Ron Zook to carry this team to a bowl game, but at this point in the season it doesn’t look like Illinois will win another game.  I just hope Michigan comes out strong this week and puts them away quickly.

I would say that my conference rankings are as follows:

1.       Ohio State (no change)

2.       Michigan (up 2)

3.       Penn State (up 3)

4.       Northwestern (down 1)

5.       Nebraska (down 3)

6.       Michigan State (up 1)

7.       Iowa (up 1)

8.       Wisconsin (up 1)

9.       Purdue (down 4)

10.   Minnesota (no change)

11.   Indiana (no change)

12.   Illinois (no change)