As the weekend draws closer, we are preparing for the 5th Michigan game of the season. This weekend the Wolverines will take on Purdue at Ross Ade Stadium. In the preseason this was a game that was penciled in as a win for most big blue fans, but now many national “experts” are picking the Boilers. At this point in the season, I am not sure how to predict these Michigan games since on good days they could beat most top 10 teams and on a bad day, well, they could lose to any team in the conference. Everything hinges on Denard Robinson, and so far this year he has disappointed. The coaches continue to so their confidence in the young man, but something needs to change in these last 8 weeks if Michigan wants to compete for a B1G championship.
Purdue Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
Purdue has struggled to run the ball well in their first four games. Akeem Shavers is their leading rusher so far, but he was bottled up against their only real competition in non-conference play. Now that B1G play has started, I think Purdue will be going away from running between the tackles. The running backs that will see the field are under-sized and the offensive line is not good enough to open up consistent holes for Purdue to control the ball on the ground. Instead, the Boilers will use screen passes and the occasional jet sweep or end around to get their quick, shifty players to the edge. This will be the biggest challenge for the Michigan defense in this game. We have seen Frank Clark really struggle at keeping contain on the edge during a running play. I think Purdue will try to attack this side of the field, and Michigan will be dependent on the line backers to play as well as they did against Notre Dame. The defensive line should be able to get some penetration this week, or at least hold their blocks, and this will allow the linebackers free lanes to make tackles. Morgan and Demens look like completely different players when they are not forced to get off of blocks every play. I think Desmond Morgan and Jake Ryan will have another big game in the tackles department. Purdue will likely be able to get a few good runs in the game from missed tackles in space or on the edges, but Michigan should be able to hold the Boilers under 120 rushing yards in this game. Advantage Michigan.
Purdue Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
With Robert Marve still injured, Caleb TerBush will be taking most of the snaps on Saturday. There really isn’t anything impressive about this quarterback, but he can occasionally beat you through the air if he has enough time to throw. If Michigan can contain the rush yards, it should force Purdue into more passing downs. It will be important for the pass rush to actually get to TerBush. The Purdue offensive line is not nearly as good as Alabama’s or the tackles of Notre Dame. I think Greg Mattison will draw up more blitzes in this game and rely on more man-to-man coverage in the secondary. Even though Frank Clark struggles in the running game still, he is one of our best pass rushers. Look for him and Jake Ryan to have a few pressures. You will know Michigan is winning this battle if the other guys on the defensive line pick up a sack or two, since they have really struggled at getting any penetration. The Boiler receivers are decent, but this secondary has faced better already this year. JT Floyd should have a good day in pass coverage, but it will be important for Raymon Taylor to continue to improve on the other side of the field. If Michigan has to sit back in more zone coverage to try and hide the 2nd cornerback, the pass rush will be less effective. Purdue’s tight ends should be containable by Kenny Demens. This battle starts up front, and so far Michigan has struggled to generate a pass rush. I think the week off helped them a lot, and we see this defensive unit continue to come together. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan Rush Offense vs Purdue Rush Defense
Brady Hoke wants to run the ball. The Michigan offensive line has had glimpses of dominating the guys opposite them, but the problem so far is it has not been consistent enough. Denard has been able to find openings in most games, but the running backs have been struggling a lot. Michigan came out and ran the ball down Notre Dame’s throat in the 2nd half of that game so it will be really nice to continue that momentum in West Lafayette this week. The problem is Purdue’s defensive line is one of the best in the conference. Most teams will struggle to run against the Boilers this year. Notre Dame’s defensive scheme was a 3-4 where the nose tackle demands a double team, Michigan was able to get some lineman to the second level which gave them success in the running attack. This week Purdue runs the conventional 4-3 defense which will make it a lot harder for the offensive line to get any blocks on the linebackers. Kawaan Short will likely be an All-American and 1st round draft pick next spring. He is a dominating defensive tackle, and Michigan will be forced to double team him on every play. This will leave single coverage for the remaining 3 lineman, or force Michigan to run different TE sets. The problem here though is sophomore Bruce Gaston can also demand a double team at different times in the game. Michigan will likely not be very successful between the tackles on Saturday, unless it is from a quarterback scramble. The Wolverines have good enough athletes to get to the edges against this defense though. The Purdue linebackers are the definition of average and will not make any spectacular plays on Saturday. If Toussaint or Denard can get past the front 4, there will be yards there for the taking. Advantage Push
Michigan Pass Offense vs Purdue Pass Defense
On paper Michigan has enough playmakers in this area to beat Purdue through the air, the problem, of course, if the mindset of the quarterback. Denard has a habit of throwing at least 1 interception in every game, and at this point I would consider it a success if he only throws one this week. The Purdue pass rush is mostly created by the front four. They haven’t needed to blitz linebackers or safeties much this year. Short and Gaston get to the quarterback more than Michigan’s entire defense so far. Al Borges will likely need to run some plays to roll out the pocket away from the two Purdue monsters. If Denard doesn’t get pressured, then he will have to worry about the best cornerback tandem in the conference. Josh Johnson and Ricardo Allen will both be considered for All-B1G at the end of the season. While both are good, neither come close to Alabama corner Milliner. Like I said earlier, the linebackers are very average, Michigan should be able to find open TEs all day long. This should be Denard’s check down receiver. The problem here is most of the time tight ends will be in the middle of the field, and Denard throwing over the middle is horrifying. As you can see, my excitement about Denard has lessened a lot since August. He is very capable of putting this team on his back for 8 straight games and leading Michigan to the B1G Championship game. The problem is that I would have to see it to believe it right now. I think he accumulates over 200 yards passing in this game, but how many remarkable interceptions will be thrown? Probably too many. Advantage Purdue.
Michigan is the better team, period. The problem is the biggest x factor plays quarterback for big blue. Denard has been saying that he wants to be more of a role player on this team, but I don’t think a running back will be able to get going too much in this game. It will likely fall onto number 16’s shoulders yet again. One thing is certain, Michigan receivers will be seeing single coverage all day long. The third receiver or tight ends should be able to get separation on most routes. We know Denard struggles against pressure, and I think Short and Gaston give enough to force him into a couple terrible throws. Will those throws result in interceptions or just hit the turf? Somehow, I think Denard and company make enough plays in this game to escape with a much needed victory, 31-21.
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