In case you haven’t heard, Michigan plays their 2nd of 3 major rivals this weekend in Michigan State. This was the preseason B1G game of the year, it was supposed to decide the best team in the conference and which team would be representing the Legend’s Division in Indianapolis. I guess this is why they actually play the games on the field. Sparty’s only chance at back-to-back conference championship games is to win out, meanwhile Michigan firmly sits on top of the Legend’s Division. This really reminds me of some early 2000 matchups where Michigan State’s season seems to be hanging by a thread heading into Michigan week. A loss could cause them to lose all fight and finish with 6+ losses, or a win could keep their fading hopes alive. You already know which side I am on.
Michigan State Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The Spartans main offensive threat is with running back Le’Veon Bell. He is averaging nearly 5 yards per carry this season, even though the offensive line in front of him has been decimated with injuries. This guy is a 245+ pound battering ram that somehow has enough athleticism to make cornerbacks miss in the open field. Just in case you don’t understand how big this running back is, he would be Michigan’s heaviest linebacker. Even with the front 5 struggling for the green and white, the key for Michigan to continue holding opponents under 15 points will be to force Michigan State into predictable passing situations. This means stopping the run on 1st and 2nd downs. The defensive line is going to have to use their improvement and new found confidence to get some push through the blockers in front of them. The linebackers will only be able to hit Bell and drop him at the point of contact is if they have free lanes of attack. I actually think the defensive line will win the battle up front tomorrow, but Bell can be too good sometimes. He will likely make enough guys miss around the line of scrimmage to keep his YPC average around 4. If he gets up to 6 yards or above, it will be a very long game for Michigan. Advantage Michigan State, it is not too often where you give the edge to the offense when you expect the defensive line to control the line of scrimmage. That is how good Bell can be.
Michigan State Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
This is the biggest question mark of the game for me. Andrew Maxwell seems to be improving little by little each week as a quarterback, but the MSU Offensive Coordinator keeps calling horrible plays that limit any production from the Spartan unit. Aaron Burbridge has stepped in as a true freshman to be one of the conference’s best receivers. He will be the first down field threat we have faced since Alabama. Also, Andrew Maxwell will be the best pocket passer this defense has faced since AJ McCarron in game 1. Yes, the Michigan secondary has absolutely dominated quarterbacks that cannot throw downfield, but this weekend is a different animal. Even if MSU is not able to complete any deep balls, they will at least try a few times. This will be more than Illinois or Purdue combined. Another x factor heading into tomorrow’s game is will Dion Sims be able to play with his high ankle sprain. He looks doubtful right now, but I have to believe he will try to gut it out to start, but will he be effective? Even with the offensive line struggling so much for Michigan State, Michigan has not proven it can get a consistent pass rush without blitzing 2+ guys. If the ends (Roh, Beyer, or any of their backups) can beat the tackles in front of them and force Maxwell out of the pocket, it could be a good game for the Michigan pass defense. The weather looks to be another factor in this game too. On paper this looks like one of the big advantages for Michigan, but I am still not completely sold that it will play out like that. I do think MSU will get a couple big passing plays, possibly on a 3rd and long, but in general I think Maxwell will have an average day. They should still struggle to move the ball with any consistency. Advantage Michigan slightly.
Michigan Rush Offense vs Michigan State Rush Defense
The Spartans have outrushed the Wolverines in each of these last 4 victories, and a big part of that is the MSU defense seems to be built perfectly to stop a half spread offense like Michigan. Big Blue struggles to line up and run the ball from under center, and they have been unable to take advantage of the Spartans extremely aggressive defensive ends. This year Michigan State is without Jerel Worthy, who has been the Michigan killer the past 2 seasons. While their defensive line is still one of the best in the conference, it has lost a lot of its push capabilities. If Michigan can have success running up the middle for more than 4 ypc, the Wolverines should have no problem scoring 20+ points. That is a big ask for this offensive line. It will be very important to mix in some play action passes or screens to offset the blitzing linebackers. Last year Michigan coaches could not adjust and the offense played out the definition of insanity (keep doing the same thing with the expectation of getting a different outcome). The Michigan running backs have been quiet this season, but Denard is showing why he is the best player in college football when he has an opening while running. I think the play calling will be better prepared for the Spartan defense, which will allow Denard to get outside more than in years past. But, don’t expect Michigan to rush for 300+ yards again this week. Advantage Push.
Michigan Pass Offense vs Michigan State Pass Defense
The Michigan State cornerbacks were hyped up almost as much as William Gholston was in the preseason. Johnny Adams was even a late first round draft pick projection. So far this unit has been disappointing for Mark Dantonio. The Narduzzi defensive mind-set puts the cornerbacks on an island for the majority of every game, but so far this season the pass rush has not be as effective as they would like and receivers are finding separation down field. The key in this battle will be how will the interior offensive line and extra blocking running back be able to control Michigan State’s a gap blitzes that killed Michigan the past 2 seasons. If Denard is getting pressured all day and looks rushed, he will likely have at least 1 terrible turnover and possibly 1-2 more reasonable ones. However, if number 16 has time to look down the field, I have confidence that the receivers and or tight ends will be able to make plays on some throws. Al Borges will need to call some short passes to get Denard into a little rhythm passing the ball, and not expect him to run play action passes out of the I formation with only 2 routes (cough Notre Dame cough). If the pass rush does not get Denard consistently, Michigan could continue their better than average offensive production. If Denard is running for his life throwing into triple coverage, it might be a long afternoon. Advantage Michigan State slightly (based on the Denard factor still).
It will be interesting to see if Michigan’s game plan changes much from the last two games. Even against a “better” defense in Notre Dame, Michigan ran the ball down their throat for most of the game and got into trouble when they put the ball into the air. If Denard can keep his passing attempts to 16-20, Michigan will be controlling the line of scrimmage and the ground game. If he is forced to throw the ball more, this game could be a tossup. I do think the Spartan defense is slightly better than Michigan’s, but Michigan’s offense has a bigger edge over Michigan State’s. The game will come down to turnovers, and if Denard can keep the slate clean for the third straight week Michigan will win this game. Denard had owned Notre Dame in his career up until this season, but has been owned by Michigan State. Can he turn the tables on this rivalry this season? I sure hope so. I like the way Michigan is playing football right now, and I just think the home field advantage and more dynamic offense will end up edging Michigan State. Michigan wins 24-13.
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