Week 7: Illinois preview

Welcome, folks, to the Illinois preview.  Tomorrow's game will mark the half way point for the Wolverine season.  This team is looking like they are following a similar path as in 2011, the defense is starting to really come together and Al Borges is still trying to put a spread wizard into a west coast passer's role.  So far this season, Illinois has really struggled.  They are 2-4, but their closest lose has been 17 points. Before any games kicked off, the Illini were expected to have one of the better defenses in the conference with many NFL-caliber players returning.  At this point they would struggle to hold up against a slight breeze.  This week's game could get out of hand quickly, but Michigan will have to fight off the urge to look ahead to Michigan State next week.

Illinois Run Offense vs Michigan Run Defense
Well, the Wolverine font 7 seem to be coming together very well.  The defensive line is improving each week, which is allowing the linebackers to flow to the ball.  The Illini rushing attack is focused around QB Scheelhasse.  He is pretty elusive in the backfield and can create positive yards out of nothing.  If he can get a few nice runs, it will pull some focus away from RB Young.  Even if this does happen, however, Michigan should be able to control the line of scrimmage against this team.  The offensive line has struggled to open up any running lanes.  James Ross and Joe Bolden could see some significant playing time in this game.  I like the linebacking unit as a whole to have a big game.  Advantage Michigan

Illinois Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
As good as Scheelhasse is with his legs, he does not impress many with his arm.  Combine that with the Illini's lack of play makers at receiver, and this could make for a long day for Illinois.  Like I mentioned early, the Michigan defensive line should be able to control the line of scrimmage which could allow for open blitzing lanes for Jake Ryan. Illinois might try to stretch the field a little more than Purdue did last week, so it should give the secondary a little more of a challenge from a coverage perspective.  I think Michigan will record at least one interception, and Raymon Taylor continues to improve.  Hopefully this week will be a good tune up for what the Spartans will throw at them.  Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Run Offense vs Illinois Run Defense
I expect Michigan's game plan to be very similar to what we saw last week in West Lafayette.  The offensive line will be showcased in this game.  I like the way the left side of the line is getting push right now, and the Illini defensive front does not offer as big of a challenge as Purdue did.  I think all 5 guys have one of their best games in run blocking this season. It will be interesting to see how the carries are split up.  Will Denard run 15+ times and leave Fitz with only 10-15 carries?  Fitz needs to show some improvement with his field vision this week, and hopefully it results in a big day for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if he doubled his total rush yards tomorrow.  But, if he struggles again, how long will Hoke stay with him instead of Thomas Rawls.  Either way, I think Michigan cracks the 200 yard rushing mark again which will control the tempo and time of possession because like Coach Hoke said, "I really like our defense when our offense is on the field." Advantage Michigan

Michigan Pass Offense vs Illinois Pass Defense
I doubt Denard will attempt many more passes than he did last week (16).  The game might be closer than we would like, if he is forced to throw more.  I think Michigan will run some simple routes to get the ball to Gardner and Funchess, but will likely not show many new routes this week. If Denard does throw more passes, the Illini defense will be reliant around if CB Hawthorne can play.  He took a horrible looking shot last week and was knocked out with a concussion.  He is Illinois' best cornerback.  He would definitely slow Gardner down some. If he is not able to play, well it would be a long day for an over-matched secondary.  Advantage Michigan.

After looking at 4 of the main categories of this football game, it seems pretty easy that I am picking Michigan to win tomorrow.  The weather is supposed to be cold and rainy, so it will be interesting to see how it affects play calling and ball security.  It will be important for the Wolverines to continue to focus of not turning the ball over.  If they can finish the game with an even turnover margin or better, the Wolverines should have no problems getting their 4th win of the season.  I like Michigan, 38-16.