Week 1: Central Michigan Preview

The Michigan football team returns to the field tomorrow afternoon looking to improve upon last year’s disappointing season.  The Wolverines are flying a little under the radar in the preseason, but there are a lot of reasons to think it could be a special year. Michigan opens the march to Pasadena with Central Michigan.

CMU Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
Central’s best unit will be their running attack this season. The Chips return Zurlon Tipton who neared 1,500 yards in 2012.  Tipton will be hands down the best running back in the MAC this season and will probably be drafted in the middle rounds next spring.  The one thing working against Central will be trying to replace 4 offensive linemen, including the number 1 draft pick.  While Coach Enos has been cranking out good lineman from Central during his time in Mount Pleasant, it will take the Chips a few games to get acclimated up front.  I will be looking to see how well Michigan’s front four hold blocks to give all three linebackers free lanes to make tackles.  It will also be interesting to see how much Frank Clark has improved his run stopping.  If you remember, Clark only played in assumed passing downs for most of 2012 because of his inability to hold contain on the outside.  Look for Central to run at the edges to test Clark, any SDE and especially Cam Gordon.  I think the Maize and Blue are just too talented in the front seven to be burned all game by Tipton. Advantage Michigan.

CMU Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
Central Michigan is breaking in a new quarterback against a blitz happy defensive coordinator.  Kody Kater will be the starting signal caller for the Chips, and he will be looking for their best receiver from 2012, Titus Davis.  CMU does not have a big receiver that the small Michigan corners will likely struggle against.  I will be looking to see how the front four can get pressure on Kater, and how often Mattison will need to dial up a blitz.  I think the Wolverine defensive line will have a big day, accumulate 3+ sacks, and pressure Kater into at least one interception.  Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Rush Offense vs CMU Rush Defense
This will probably be the most anticipated matchup of the day.  Central is not a good defensive team, but Michigan is breaking in 3 new interior lineman.  Glasgow, Miller, and Kalis cannot be any worse than the inside 3 from 2012.  I expect to see the CMU defensive line on skates all afternoon.  I will be looking for how well and often Kalis pulls to the left side so Michigan can involve the nation’s best OL in the rushing attack.  On top of the offensive line questions, Michigan will be looking to sure up the running back depth chart.  As it stands now, Fitz is the hands down starter, but tomorrow will be a good battle for primary backup.  Drake Johnson won the spot in fall camp, but look for De’Veon Smith and Derrick Green both to get their fair share of attempts tomorrow. I think Smith will take over the backup job sooner rather than later. Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Pass Offense vs CMU Pass Defense
All Michigan fans have heard this offseason is about Devin Gardner’s potential.  He impressed at every stop in the last 8 months, and has been talked about as a dark horse candidate for the Heisman.  Tomorrow we will get to see how true all of this talk was.  Even though Amara Darboh will be out for the season, Michigan has a few quality options still.  Jeremy Gallon has a crazy connection with Devin, which should propel him to one of the better receivers in the conference.  Opposite of him, Gardner will look for Jehu Chesson as the primary deep threat, Drew Dileo out of the slot, and Devin Funchess over the middle.  While this group is far from the best receiving corps to wear the winged helmet, it is a more than capable group especially if Devin performs as expected. I will be looking for Jeremy and Funchess to have a big game tomorrow.  Advantage Michigan.

This game is much more of the usual opener for the Wolverines than last year against Alabama.  I expect Devin and Fitz to get some good work in throughout the first half, and then hand the reins to Shane Morris and the freshman running backs.  Central could turn out to be one of the better MAC teams by the end of the year, but Michigan is just too talented and should be on a mission to put distance from the disappointing 2012 campaign.  Michigan rolls 48-16.

Week 1 Upset Alert

Since the first football game gets kicked off in 3 hours, it is time for my weekly upset alert.  Usually the first week consists of a lot of big schools smashing the skull of some glorified middle school team, so choosing a few top 25 schools that should be on the lookout could be difficult.

Like last year’s opening week, I am going to put South Carolina on upset watch.  I think the Gamecocks are one of the best teams in the country, but will likely be overlooked again in the SEC.  North Carolina usually has a few NFL players on their roster each year, so it is possible that the Tar Heels can keep the score close for a little while.  Eventually, South Carolina should be able to pull away for a comfortable victory. 

My other potential upset to watch out for this week is when Boise State travels to Washington.  Coach Sarkesian is still recruiting well for the Huskies, and it is only a matter of time before the playmakers show up on the field.  Boise is the Gonzaga of college football, so most of the time I think they are ranked because some mid-major needs to be and why not the one we have all heard of.  Since the Huskies are at home for this game I actually expect them to win and ‘pull off the upset’.  

B1G Week 1 Preview

The college football season starts tonight, and there are two B1G games to keep an eye on.  Like last year, I will go through each conference game and give a little preview.  The Michigan preview will be a separate post, most likely on the day before the game.

Indiana State @ Indiana 7:00 8/29: The road begins for Indiana’s journey to bowl eligibility.  Coach Wilson has mentioned that all 3 quarterbacks will see time against the Sycamores.  I just think the Hoosiers will have too much firepower for ISU to keep up. 

UNLV @ Minnesota 7:00 8/29: UNLV will again be one of the worst teams in the MWC, and Minnesota gets this rematch at home.  I think Hageman has a huge game on the defensive line.  The thing to watch will be how the Gopher offense performs, it is a mostly unknown unit at this point and it could be looking to make a big statement tonight.  

Western Michigan @ Michigan State 8:00 8/30: Western Michigan is breaking in a new head coach and they have lost their All-MAC receiver due to injury.  As much as I would like the Broncos to give the Spartans a game, this one has blowout written all over it.  Maxwell will have all day to find receivers, and the defense should be able to single cover all game which will allow many blitzes.  

Buffalo @ Ohio State 12:00 8/31: Does this game really need a preview?  It will be surprising if Urb keeps it within 50. He has been known to keep starters in way past most would expect, so how many yards can Miller accumulate?

UMass @ Wisconsin 12:00 8/31: Wisconsin is also breaking in a new coach and likely a new quarterback, but they return a stable of running backs and road grinders.  It will be interesting to see if Coach Anderson is determined to change the offensive philosophy in year one or is comfortable letting the Wisconsin Way continue.

Southern Illinois @ Illinois 12:00 8/31: Illinois is going to be bad this season, and Southern Illinois is one of the best FCS teams.  The Illini might be in trouble.   

Purdue @ Cincinnati 3:30 8/31: This is an intriguing game because it is one of 3 where a B1G team is playing a power 6 opponent. Purdue will be breaking in a new coach and quarterback, and the Boilers look to be really down on talent this season.  Cincinnati also experienced a coaching change from last year. This game could be pretty entertaining.  If Purdue can pull a win out, they should be a bowl team come November.

Syracuse @ Penn State 3:30 8/31: In the 2^nd matchup of 2 power 6 teams, both teams have a lot of question marks.  Syracuse lost its star quarterback and coach, and Penn State lost a lot of senior leadership and talent.  It seems like the Nittany Lions are being overrated in the preseason based on how much they exceeded expectations last year.  I just have a hard time seeing PSU being able to repeat their success in year two of sanctions.  The scholarship limitations will start to show on the field and breaking in a freshman quarterback is always an adventure. However, I do think the Nittany Lions have enough talent returning to grind out a close game against the Orange.

Northern Illinois @ Iowa 3:30 8/31: Iowa looks to be one of the worst teams in the conference again this season, and Northern Illinois is coming off of a BCS appearance.  I know the Wildcats are not going to be as good as last year, but the Hawkeyes could make a statement if they can walk away with a W.

Wyoming @ Nebraska 8:00 8/31: Bo Pelini is another coach in the Urban Meyer mindset, so the question here is not will Nebraksa win but by how much.  Martinez could have a 400 yard day running and passing.  

Northwestern @ California 10:30 8/31: Just glancing at this matchup it seems that California would be the favorite with the home game and night game, but Cal is another rebuilding team and Northwestern has Rose Bowl hopes.  I think Colter and Mark give the Bearcats all they can handle, and the Wildcats should pull away in this one.  It will be interesting to see if Kyle Prater is involved with the offense at all, because he has the ability to be one of the best B1G receivers if he can figure out the offense.  

B1G Predictions (Awards)

This is my preseason All-B1G offensive and defensive teams. Last year I said that I was hoping to get 5 selections right, and I think I just scraped by, maybe this year I could push it to double digits. 

Offense
QB: Braxton Miller, Ohio State (Taylor Martinez, Devin Gardner, and Kain Colter are special mention)
RB: Venric Mark, Northwestern
RB: James White, Wisconsin (Melvin Gordon and Ameer Abdullah are special mention)
WR: Jeremy Gallon, Michigan
WR: Allen Robinson, Penn State (Kenny Bell, Jared Abbrederis, and Corey Brown are special mention)
TE: Devin Funchess, Michigan (C.J. Fiedorowicz is special mention)
T: Taylor Lewan, Michigan
T: Jack Mewhort, Ohio State (Michael Schofield is special mention)
G: Spencer Long, Nebraska
G: John Urschel, Penn State (Kyle Kalis is special mention)
C: Brandon Vitabile, Northwestern

Defense
DE: Deion Barnes, Penn State
DE: Tyler Scott, Northwestern (Noah Spence, Marcus Rush, and Frank Clark are special mention)
DT: Ra’Shede Hageman, Minnesota
DT: Quinton Washington, Michigan (Aldophus Washington are special mention)
LB: Ryan Shazier, Ohio State
LB: Max Bullough, Michigan State
LB: Chris Borland, Wisconsin (James Ross III, Jake Ryan, and Jonathan Brown are special mention)
CB: Bradley Roby, Ohio State
CB: Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State (Ricardo Allen and Blake Countess are special mention)
S: Ibraheim Campbell, Northwestern
S: Isaiah Lewis, MSU (Thomas Gordon is special mention)

Special Teams
PK: Brendan Gibbons, Michigan (Jeff Budzien is special mention)
P: Mike Sadler, Michigan State
Ret: Venric Mark, Northwestern (Dennis Norfleet and Jared Abbrederis are special mention)

Offensive POY
As much as it pains me to choose Braxton Miller for this award, I just don’t know which player will be able to take the honor away from him.  Miller is looking to become the first back to back Offensive POY ever in the B1G.  Last year was his first in Urban Meyer’s offense, and I think that was just the beginning of what Braxton can do.  Meyer has said that last year was mostly a pro-style offense, and this year the training wheels are coming off.  While I think Devin Gardner has the most NFL-QB potential in the conference, he doesn’t have the surrounding cast that can compare to Miller’s.  Look for Braxton Miller to put up 2,800 yards passing while completing 60% as well as 1,100 yards on the ground. 

2. Taylor Martinez
3. Devin Gardner
4. Venric Mark
5. James White

Defensive POY
I have seen a lot of analysts go with Ryan Shazier for this award, but I can’t pick Buckeyes to sweep the POY awards.  While Shazier might be the most athletic linebacker in the conference, I think he is going to struggle at times when he doesn’t have Hankins and Simon in front of him this season.  I will instead choose the best player from the best defense: Max Bullough.  So a Michigan fan is choosing a Buckeye and a Spartan for POY honors. I just really like the way Bullough plays the middle linebacker spot. When he hits somebody they fall backwards.  It also helps that the Michigan State defense funnels everything to the MIKE LB position. 

2. Bradley Roby
3. Darqueze Dennard
4. Ryan Shazier
5. James Ross

B1G Predictions (Legends)

1.       Michigan

Last year picking the Wolverines on top of the Legends Division was definitely an optimistic, homer, choice.  This year when I look at this stacked group Michigan is the most complete team listed, and like two years ago, the schedule is again in their favor.  While the Wolverines do not have the best offense or defense of this bunch, I predict both units to be in the top third of the conference.  Their best defender, Jake Ryan, is slated to come back in October before the schedule gets tough in November, and Devin Gardner just scratched the surface of his potential last season.  The race for the Legends Division crown is going to be a fun one to keep an eye on.  

2.       Michigan State

Ordering the next three teams is close to impossible.  Each of Michigan State, Northwestern, and Nebraska have above average aspects to pair with bottom dwelling groups.  I chose the Spartans to finish 2^nd in the division because they boast the conference’s best defense, and on paper it really isn’t close.  The B1G has quite a few teams with above average offenses, but Michigan State has the only truly elite defense.  While the Spartans struggled mightily on offense last year, I really don’t think it can get that much worse.  Also to help matters they will benefit from not having to play themselves, so scoring 21 points should not be too tall of a task against most of the league.  

3.       Northwestern

The Wildcats seem to be the 2013 dark horse.  They are starting with more attention than Purdue last year, but most people think they will finish as the 4^th best team in the Legends Division.  While Northwestern might not have the overall talent on offense as other teams (Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc) they run a very difficult system to defend.  Kain Coulter is on the short list for preseason offensive player of the year, and he will be helped by Venric Mark and Kyle Prater.  The defense will again be a struggle for the Wildcats, but they are infusing more talent on this side of the ball through recruiting and I think it starts to shine this season.

4.       Nebraska

Most people are choosing the Cornhuskers to win the Legends Division.  I have a hard time putting them above the first three teams though, unless they make a big leap forward on the defensive side of the ball.  The once-named Black-shirt defense couldn’t stop anybody with a pulse last year, and they lost some of their most talented players. Nebraska could replace these players with immediate contributors, but since the Huskers have joined the B1G their recruiting has taken a major hit.  Taylor Martinez will also push for the offensive player of the year, and should lead one of the most prolific offenses again, but if they can allow Wisconsin to hang 70 on them I just cant put them higher on this list.  Nebraska will have a good early season matchup with UCLA, and if their defense can hold up well then the Huskers could become my favorite to win this division.

5.       Minnesota

The preview of Minnesota is a lot like last year.  The Gophers will be improved again, but they happen to play in the tougher division.  This team is going to be better than their record shows, and could even have a major hand in determining who wins the Legends.  However, I think Minnesota will struggle to be bowl eligible.  

6.       Iowa

The Hawkeyes struggled all of last year, and I just don’t see them being much better this year.  Coach Ferentz’s seat could get a little hotter after this season. Iowa was one of the worst offensive teams in the entire conference last season, and I just don’t see any reason to believe that will change in 2013.  

B1G Predictions (Leaders)

We have made it to the final week of the summer, which on one hand is extremely disappointing knowing the sun will be leaving us shortly, but it also means that the college football season is upon us.  Even though my B1G preseason predictions crashed and burned big time last year, I am going to dust myself off and try again. 

1.       Ohio State

Seemingly the Buckeyes are the obvious choice of the Leader’s Division.  The return a legitimate Heisman candidate, Braxton Miller, a ton of talent and highly touted recruits are replacing the players gone from last year’s undefeated team.  While I think their number 2 overall preseason ranking is quite overrated, this half of the B1G is by far the weaker side. Yes Ohio has many questions on the defensive side of the ball, but it really shouldn’t matter because there is really only one defense on the schedule that has a chance at keeping the offense under 40 points (Michigan).

2.       Wisconsin

The Badgers break in a new coach who brings a new offensive system to Madison, but the meathead left quite a bit of talent in the cupboard for this season.  Wisconsin still has all of the pieces to be a road grinding running team, and will boast 2 of the best backs in the entire conference.  The defense will once again be solid tacklers that lack the top end lateral speed to keep up with the truly elite teams (which the B1G mostly lacks).  Even though Wisconsin’s run at the Rose Bowl should end this season, they should be able to finish with a better overall record than last season.

3.       Indiana

I predicted the Hoosiers to finish last in the Leader’s Division last year which was a mistake.  Even though their quarterbacks were hit with the injury bug, they managed to have the most prolific passing offense in the entire conference.  They return two proven quarterbacks, and are all but guaranteed to hold onto being the best team through the air again.  The problem with Indiana (as with most B1G teams) is they are extremely limited on the other side of the football.  If the Hoosiers are going to make a bowl game this year they will need to score in the 40’s most games, and that is a tall order.

4.       Penn State

To be honest, I am not exactly sure what to expect from Penn State this season.  The seniors rallied together last year to be the B1G’s biggest surprise team, but most of their production, from both sides of the ball, have graduated.  While Bill O’Brien managed to recruit reasonably well for a team under such strict sanctions, the Nittany Lions will be relying on a lot of unproven players.  Of course it will help having the conference’s best receiver, Allen Robinson, to help break in the new quarterback.

5.       Purdue

The Boilermakers were by dark horse candidate last year, and I almost immediately regretted that choice.  The struggled all season long which resulted in another coaching change in West Lafayette. Purdue still has some talent in the secondary, but I doubt it will be enough to push for bowl eligibility.

6.       Illinois

It became clear at an early stage last season that the Illini were the worst team in the conference.  Coach Beckman did little with the talent that the Zooker left him.  This year there is even less talent in Champagne, so there is no reason to believe the results will be any better.  It might be hard for these guys to win a conference game.

Team 134 Depth Chart Preview

It is almost Labor Day which means I am back blogging for the upcoming football season.  There has been a lot of discussion about Michigan's depth chart so far during training camp, and even though the answers will be revealed in 8 short days I thought I could take my guesses. 

There are some easy choices, and some shots in the dark (especially with Darboh now out for the season with a foot injury).  I will bold the players that I think are locks.  Take a look and tell me what you think.

QB:
Devin Gardner
Shane Morris

RB:
Fitz Toussaint
Derrick Green
Justice Hayes (3rd down back)

FB:
Joe Kerridge
Sione Houma

WR1:
Jeremy Gallon
Joe Reynolds

WR2:
Jehu Chesson
Joe Reynolds
Jeremy Jackson

Slot:
Drew Dileo
Dennis Norfleet

TE1 (Y):
Devin Funchess
A.J. Williams
Jake Butt

TE2 (U):
Jordan Paskorz
Khalid Hill
Wyatt Shallman

LT:
Taylor Lewan
Michael Schofield

LG:
Chris Bryant
Graham Glasgow
Ben Braden

C:
Jack Miller
Graham Glasgow

RG:
Kyle Kalis
Graham Glasgow

RT:
Michael Schofield
Ben Braden

The biggest offensive battles that still need to be determined are WR2 after the Darboh injury, LG and C.  The coaching staff has mentioned that they would not be opposed to using a platoon for the 2nd receiver position.  The LG is a little disconcerning since after spring ball all signs pointed towards Ben Braden staking claim to the guard next to Lewan.  Now insiders are saying that Braden hasnt even been taking snaps at guard during the fall, and Chris Bryant has taken over the lead.  According to Coach Borgess, Bryant was on track to win one of the starting guard spots last year before an injury sidelined him for the year.  The final spot, center, is likely the most important battle still taking place in camp.  We have seen how important a quality center is with the dropoff from David Molk.  If you are an optimist, whoever wins the starting job should be as good, if not better, than last year's.

 DT:
Quinton Washington
Ondre Pipkens

3-Tech:
Jibreel Black
Willie Henry

SDE:
Chris Wormley
Keith Heitzman
Tom Strobel

WDE:
Frank Clark
Mario Ojemudia
Taco Charlton

SAM:
Jake Ryan (in October)
Cam Gordon
Brennan Beyer

MIKE:
Desmond Morgan
Joe Bolden

WILL:
James Ross
Desmond Morgan
Royce Jenkins-Stone

CB1:
Blake Countess
Delonte Hollowell
Jourdan Lewis

CB2:
Raymon Taylor
Courtney Avery
Ross Douglas

NB:
Dymonte Thomas
Blake Countess
Courtney Avery

S1:
Thomas Gordon
Jarrod Wilson
Delano Hill

S2:
Courtney Avery
Jarrod Wilson
Jeremy Clark

K:
Brendan Gibbons
Matt Wile

P:
Matt Wile

KR:
Dennis Norfleet
Jourdan Lewis

PR:
Dennis Norfleet
Drew Dileo

The biggest battles on the defensive side of the ball are at SDE and the 2nd safety position.  The strong side defensive end seems to be a battle between high-floor/low-ceiling Keith Heitzman and high-ceiling/low-floor Chris Wormley.  Since Greg Mattison likes running 8-10 defensive lineman in every game, both of these guys should see plenty of time.  It will be interesting to see if Tom Strobel can break into the 2-deep.  Look for him to get some snaps in the 2nd half of the season opener. The 2nd safety position is the top priority right now for the defensive coaches.  It seemed like Jarrod Wilson was the heir apparent after the Outback Bowl, but while the physical tools are all there, the mental understanding is still limited.  It seems like this side of his game hasn't developed as much as the coaches would like, so they decided to let Courtney Avery take some snaps at safety.  My theory right now is that Michigan will start the season a lot like they did in 2011.  I think the personnel will change depending on running or passing downs.  During running plays I think Wilson will be playing the majority of the snaps along with Thomas at nickelback.  Durring apparent passing plays, Michigan will likely opt to get more cornerback-type players on the field. This could be where Avery slides into the underneath safety, Blake Countess switches to the nickelback, and Delonte Hollowell takes over the outside corner back.  Personally, I think the 2nd safety position is Wilson's to lose, so as he gains more game experience I would hope he takes over the full time job.