Michigan High School Basketball Playoff Overview

The Mr. Basketball finalists have been announced, and for the first time in its 35 year history only 3 players will be on the ballot. But to be honest, I think it would be a stretch to try to put another senior on a similar level with these guys.


The overwhelming favorite is Deyonta Davis, not only for his play on the court but because of his state and national exposure. Davis is West Michigan's first McDonald's All-American since 1988, and locked down the paint for the 2013-2014 nationally ranked, undefeated Muskegon Big Reds. He is a known name among BCAM members and will likely be the runaway winner giving Muskegon back-to-back Mr. Basketball winners like Detroit Pershing in 2009-2010. Deyonta is a lanky 6'10" center that controls games more on the defensive end of the floor, and does most of his damage on offense from put-backs. His stat line is: 19 points, 17 rebounds, and 7 blocks. Davis will be heading to Michigan State next year.


Next on the voting ballots will likely be Eric Davis from Saginaw Arthur Hill. As a side note, this is the player that Michigan could have really used next year. As John Beilein and the Wolverine coaching staff were going after more high profile national players Davis was able to develop a better relationship with the Texas coaching staff and escape the state of Michigan. Luckily for coach Beilein, Davis will not be haunting him for 2+ years in the B1G. Eric Davis is an elite scorer. At only 6'3" he will likely need to develop more into a point guard, but being able to get your own shot and put the ball in the basket cannot be overlooked. Davis' averages 26 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals for the Lumberjacks. And in case you were hesitant of him being a high volume scorer like James Young, Davis shoots 59% from the floor. It will be sad to see two of the better players around the Big 12 next year from Michigan.


Trevor Manuel brings up the last vote-getter on the ballot simply because he is not as well known. Manuel started his high school career at Lansing Sexton, but then transferred to basketball factory Oak Hill. Then he decided to transfer back to Lansing Everett for his senior season where he averages 24 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 blocks. Manuel is a 6'9" wing that has to play out of position for Everett. A few seasons in a college strength program at Oregon could vault Manuel into a fringe NBA level player simply because a 6'9" skilled small forward does not come around all that often.


The landscape of high school basketball around Michigan has changed drastically this year. Class C & D will be crowning new champions as Detroit Consortium and Southfield Christian moved up in class. Also, the best players for each transferred (2016 top recruit Josh Jackson is now in California and the problematic 2015 point guard Bakari Evelyn spurred a chance at the elusive 4-peat for a chance to play for Kurt Keener in Arizona). While Class A & B will be looking for repeat champions from favorites Muskegon and Milan. As we move on from the disappointing fact that Michigan continues to lose some of its top talent to national basketball powerhouses, this year's state tournament is shaping up to be the most exciting in years.


As I scanned the brackets I realized that this is the first year in my memory that the top two challengers in each class fall on opposite sides of the tournament. This means that potentially (though unlikely) every game of the state finals on March 28th could match up the best two teams in each class. Are you excited now?


I know I can't wait to see how these 3 weeks play out.


Class A preview
Class B preview
Class C preview
Class D Preview

Class A Preview

Instead of making a really detailed preview of each class I am going to highlight my top two choices in each bracket, and highlight their path to the Breslin Center.

Favorite: Muskegon
The Big Reds lost the 2014 Mr. Basketball, but still have an experienced roster featuring the likely 2015 Mr. Basketball and McDonald’s All-American Deyonta Davis. Muskegon has again played an extremely tough schedule, and dropped one game by a single point back in December. Even though the Big Reds are the favorite again they have an extremely difficult side of the bracket which could include the other two Mr. Basketball finalists (Eric Davis and Trevor Manuel).   

Where they could stumble:
Muskegon’s only loss came at the hands of undefeated East Kentwood which could be awaiting in the Regional Finals. The Big Reds would also have to get by undefeated Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central in the Regional Semifinal. The best basketball in this tournament could happen on March 16^th at West Ottawa. If Muskegon is able to escape those two tests, they would likely face Lansing Everett in the quarterfinals, and then Saginaw Arthur Hill in the semifinals. My guess is that Arthur Hill would give them the stiffest test as Muskegon beat them earlier this season by just 2 points.    

Top Challenger: Detroit Western International
Finally we get to a PSL team. You cannot have a Class A preview without including at least one, and this year is a good one. Western International went through their grueling schedule undefeated which included the PSL slate along with Arthur Hill and Romulus. The Cowboys arguably have the deepest roster in the state, and are led by two Mt. Clemens transfers and University of Detroit recruits (Josh McFolley and Gerald Blackshear).  Their athleticism will overwhelm most opponents.

Where they could stumble:
A potential rematch looms against Romulus in the quarterfinals. The Eagles have improved dramatically throughout the season and could push Western. The semifinal matchup could feature Cassius Winston and U-D Jesuit.    

Player to Watch:
While I really want to highlight top Wolverine target Winston again here I will go with a lesser known senior heading to Kent State. Jaylin Walker, Romulus, has always been a great athlete but things have started to click in his senior season. Like usual, the schedule was chalked full of the state’s best teams. This year Romulus even traveled to Indianapolis to play against an elite recruit and one of Indiana’s best squads. All Walker did was score 44 to upset Indianapolis Central. He is one of a very few players that can almost single-handedly lead a team to a Class A finals berth.  

Class B Preview

Instead of making a really detailed preview of each class I am going to highlight my top two choices in each bracket, and highlight their path to the Breslin Center.

Favorite: Milan
The Big Reds return 4 starters from the state championship team from last year, including two Division 1 players (Latin Davis and Nick Perkins). Even though Milan has lost two games this season, both have been to talented Class A squads. They are definitely on the tougher side of the bracket, but have enough fire power that they should be playing on March 28 for a chance to repeat.  

Where they could stumble:
There are two very tough regionals on Milan’s half of the bracket. One will funnel into the Big Red’s quarterfinal, and the other will be in semis. The quarterfinal could potentially be a rematch of last season’s state final game (Benton Harbor) or any of 3 other talented teams (Otsego, Harper Creek, Dowagiac). If Milan is able to get through the Marshall quarterfinal they will likely meet the winner of Wayland and Wyoming Godwin Heights. My guess is that their toughest game will be in the semifinals.   

Top Challenger: New Haven
The Rockets boast the tallest roster in the state which has led them to an undefeated (though relatively untested) record. New Haven has been led by protecting the rim and blocking 10+ shots per game. Since their schedule was not extremely difficult, it will be interesting to see how they respond to playing top level guards.  

Where they could stumble:
As I mentioned earlier, tough guard play will be a drastic style difference from the Rockets scheme, and their first major test falls right into this definition. New Haven will likely play Yale in the Regional Semifinal (which is also played at Yale). The Bulldogs are led by 6’1” shooter Josh McClelland, 6’0” Cody Kegley, and 6’4” Austin Genther.   

Player to Watch:
Latin Davis, Milan, had his coming out party last year on the biggest stage. He played his best game of the season to clinch a state championship for the Big Reds. While he hasn’t been able to duplicate that performance every night this season (which cannot be expected since last March was something special) he is the most polished guard in the state this season and has multiple ways to beat the opposition.

Class C Preview

Instead of making a really detailed preview of each class I am going to highlight my top two choices in each bracket, and highlight their path to the Breslin Center.

Favorite: Flint Beecher
BucTown is at it again. A year after they had to adjust without Mr. Basketball, Monte Morris, Beecher is undefeated and the overwhelming favorites in Class C.  This year they are without a highly recruited player, but they are still winning with aggressive lock down defense and getting out on the fast break after forcing turnovers. Most Class C teams aren’t used to this lateral quickness and relentless effort the Bucs play with on defense.

Where they could stumble:
There will be a very tough Regional Semifinal at Adrian Madison likely between Lumen Christi and Hillsdale that could be a tough out for Beecher in the semifinals, but I am going out on a limb to say that Southfield Christian could put a scare into Beecher in the Regional Finals. I know SC lost its best player, and are adjusting to the increased competition in Class C, but they are honestly the only team in this entire bracket that has the experience against Beecher-level athleticism.  Marlo Brown has grown into a very good high school basketball player and could really cause matchup nightmares for Beecher.  

Top Challenger: Beaverton
Beaverton is a little unknown right now, but they have a pretty good resume considering their location. The Beavers have 2 20+ point wins against perennial Class D power Sacred Heart Academy and 2 close wins against Clare. Another thing going for Beaverton is that their path is relatively safe until the semifinal round.

Where they could stumble:
The toughest test the Beavers will have to go through to play on March 28 will be in the semis. The winner of the Beal City regional (Shelby, Laingsburg, and Heights Academy) will challenge Beaverton in the Breslin Center.  

Player to Watch:
Shawn Pardee, Millington, has had to carry the load at times this season when Austin LeVan was out with injury. The 5’11” point guard has been scoring at an elite level this season (27 ppg) and could help Millington scare Beecher in District Finals.

Class D Preview

Instead of making a really detailed preview of each class I am going to highlight my top two choices in each bracket, and highlight their path to the Breslin Center.




Favorite: Cedarville Trojans
It seems like Cedarville teams have been dominant for the past decade in Class D. They can always score a ton of points in the standard UP way, and usually have one main guy capable of hanging 30 on almost anyone. This year's squad is no different. The Trojans have scored over 70 points in every game, and Joey Duncan has been on a mission for his senior campaign. However, this year the UP is oozing with talented Class D teams that will push Cedarville before they even can think of crossing the bridge.


Where they could stumble:
Considering that 10 of the 13 top teams in the AP poll are on the Trojan's half of the bracket nothing is guaranteed, but it does help that 5 of these teams will be in the same Negaunee regional. The winner of the potential Regional Semifinal between Powers North Central and Munising (Munising's only loss is at North Central by 2) will meet Cedarville in the quarterfinals.




Top Challenger: Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes
OLL is looking to be the 8th straight private school to win the Class D crown. The Lakers are led by two wing athletes: 6'3" senior Nick Robak and 6'4" junior Andrew Kline. A matchup with any of the UP powers would be fun to watch, as both teams would like to extend pressure for the full court and outshoot each other from behind the 3 point line.


Where they could stumble:
Allen Park Inter-City Baptist will be a stiff regional finals test for OLL. ICB might have been the 2nd best Class D team in the state for the past 3 seasons, but just couldn't find a way past the loaded Southfield Christian teams. While the reigning Class D POY (Evan Kraatz) has graduated, it is his younger brothers turn at the helm. As usual they have played a much tougher schedule than OLL up to this point with losses to Southfield Christian and Allen Park.




Player to Watch:
Brandon Childress, Baldwin, is the best player in Class D and is headed to Central Michigan in the fall. If he gets hot for a couple of weeks, don't be surprised to see Baldwin in the semi-finals.

Takeways from the Legends Classic

Michigan fell just short of another preseason tournament trophy for the second straight year. John Beilein has built this program to a point where there are no ‘moral victories’ anymore, and it is just another realization about how far it has come (and how vast of a difference there is between Michigan football and basketball right now). However for some reason I am struggling to temper my excitement about Team 99 after the young Wolverine’s let a win slip away.

Maybe it was the way this game eerily resembled the 2013 matchup with Charlotte, with the major difference being that Villanova will be at or around a top 10 team all season. Maybe it is the pride I feel from this team, mainly filled with new faces, getting punched in the mouth and responding with a fierce and explosive comeback when Dan Dakich exclaimed that Michigan had quit. Maybe it is the overwhelming trust that I have in this coaching staff to continue to develop this basketball team to reach their potential. Maybe it is just because today is the last work day of a short holiday week, my house regained power before temperatures reached the 40s, I am excited to stuff my face for the next 4 days, and I have had a lot of coffee today (thanks to the late game last night... I echo Coach B’s anger about it). Whatever the reason, I am extremely hopeful and excited about yet another Michigan basketball team.

1.Ricky Doyle has moved to the forefront of the center rotation

After watching practice earlier this month I thought Ricky Doyle would be the starting center by the B1G season, but after the two games in New York big number 32 needs to be in the starting rotation by Saturday. He is starting to feel comfortable on the offensive end by using his huge body to screen, collect critical offensive rebounds, and even throw in a few slip screens for good measure. On defense he is starting to understand positioning better, and is far and away the best hedger on the team right now. Doyle is the prototypical center in Beilein’s pick and roll heavy offensive scheme.

2. I think the Points per Possession (PPP) difference will be on par with last season

Last year the Wolverines bested their 2013 record setting offense by scoring 124.1 points per 100 possessions or 1.24ppp. However the defense regressed to 1.02ppp. While it is a tall task for this year’s Michigan team to even come close to last year’s offensive production I think the .22ppp difference will still be there. So far this year, Team 99’s defense has actually been a strength. The offense has yet to find a consistent rhythm, but is still averaging 1.09ppp, while the defense is yielding only .925ppp (numbers have been updated after 2 very solid high major opponents). The 2014-2015 number would be lower too if Michigan was limiting offensive rebounds better. Their ‘first shot’ defense has been superb thus far, and I expect the defensive rebounding to improve.

3. Backcourt is top 5 in the country

Dick Vitale released his top 6 backcourts in America, but somehow missed Michigan. As I watch college basketball from around the country I am hard pressed to find 3 better backcourts than the one Michigan currently boasts (let alone 6). Derrick Walton, Caris LeVert, and Zak Irvin are all future NBA players. Couple that with a veteran back-up point guard in Spike. The Wolverines could be the class of the country with their 1-3 positions. Try to find a back court that you trust more in regards to scoring, leading, setting up teammates, defense, and rebounding… It’s ok, I will wait…

4. Derrick Walton is the best all-around PG in the B1G

To go along with the above statement, I believe Derrick Walton is the best overall point guard in the B1G (and it is not really all that close). I thought he would be by the end of the year, but I am confident in saying that today. Not only does Walton run the offense smoothly and confidently, he is able to flip a switch into aggressive scorer mode. Derrick also plays good defense, usually on one of the opponent’s better players, and he is the best at high pointing a rebound on the team right now. The added strength and increased jumping ability has really shown in the rebounding department, as well as finishing through contact.

5. Kam Chatman showing signs of confidence and understanding

I am not saying that Chatman is the best freshmen in the conference, or even on the team, but he did show some glimpses of what his role can be on this team. His on ball defense has been better than expected, he transitions from pulling down a rebound to leading the fast break with no hesitation, and his court vision is a major plus. I know he is still struggling with his jump shot, but I was really impressed that even through this shooting slump Kam called for the ball on 4 different occasions (that I saw) in 4 different positions (transition, post, left corner, right corner) and didn’t hesitate to shoot 2 corner jump shots in the 2^nd half against Villanova. His shot can only improve under this coaching staff, and if he can improve even to GRIII levels this offense will be even more terrifying.

6. Rotation is solidifying

A big discussion in the preseason was what the rotation would look like. Coach Beilein kept insisting that none of the freshmen would redshirt this season, however he usually likes to run a very short bench. We are starting to get a better picture of how minutes will be distributed. Derrick, Spike, Caris, Zak, Kam, Mark, and Ricky are mainstays. The last 1-2 spots will fight over 5-10 minutes a game and be dependent on the situation.  Max, DJ, and Aubrey are the main candidates for this playing time.

7. Caris will be in discussion for B1G POY

Frank Kaminskey and Wisconsin have been unanimous choices to win POY and the conference, but Caris LeVert will have a say in that outcome. There have been times this year that he has been able to take a game over by scoring, but I have been even more impressed by his impact when not scoring. LeVert’s added strength has made him a plus defender and more willing rebounder. He is starting to look more comfortable initiating the offense and running pick and roll sets. He is also a very capable passer. When he is able to initiate a play, it leaves two of the best spot up shooters free (Walton and Irvin).  Caris is going to flirt with a triple double, especially during the nonconference season. Coach Beilein calls it pace. Both Trey and Nik had it, Caris is next in line.

8. Upper classmen in John Beilein’s system are a beautiful sight

Villanova’s biggest strength is their experience. Their starting five is all upperclassmen. Each player is so familiar with Coach Wright’s system that they don’t have to waste time thinking while trying to play, the schemes are just so engrained that is has become second nature. Now, just look at Michigan. Two of the most reliable players on the roster are Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht, both upperclassmen.

Spike isn’t trusted with so much playing time because his athleticism forces him onto the floor. It is because he knows his role perfectly. He executes the complex offense, doesn’t turn the ball over, and doesn’t get rattled in any circumstance since he has seen every situation before.  It is really fun being able to see this coaching staff develop players into early-entry NBA draft picks, but it is intriguing to consider the NCAA installing the 3 year rule like football.

9. Big Three = Big Time NBA players

I know I have discussed Derrick in more detail already, and mentioned that Michigan’s backcourt are NBA players. However, I just wanted to give specific examples, just from last night, at why I believe all three can be first round draft picks.

Caris had back-to-back possessions where Michigan ran a straight NBA style isolation, and he converted over good defensive positioning both times. The first was an unorthodox twisting fade away from the right baseline, and the second was a shot fake and spin for an open short look. At the time I noted that the offensive set seemed different for Michigan, and then realized that it was very unusual. Sure, Stauskas had plenty of plays called for him, but each one involved a screen. This is partially due to the fact that Nik is one of the best pick and roll players I have ever seen, but also due to his lack of true first step separation ability. The coaching staff trusts Caris to flat out beat whoever is in front of him one-on-one. When he converts like last night, how can you blame them?

Derrick also had two possessions where NBA scouts would have to take notice. The first was when he called for a screen, went the opposite way, and then pulled up for a contested, unbalanced elbow jumper. He was confident in this shot because he knew the defender was not going to stop as quickly as him, nor could he elevate with Derrick. The second was without the use of any screen. It was just a matter of Derrick dribbling and shooting where he wanted. He drove to the right baseline, then used a behind the back/ step back move to create space to knock down a 16 footer. Because he dictated where the defender went (not vice-versa) he was able to have the upper hand on two well defended possessions.

Finally, Zak also had two opportunities during the huge second half run. The first was immediately after Michigan came out of their 3^rd timeout in 18 seconds. They looked lost, and could have been on the verge of packing it in. Coach Beilein drew up a play for Zak (even though he was shooting poorly up to that point). He took the inbounds pass and drove his defender to a spot he felt comfortable (free throw line) and just elevated over him to snap a 10+ minute scoring drought. That is a lot of trust from the coaches to call his number at time in the game. The second came when Zak used a high ball screen and drove all the way to the hoop with his left and finished over the late rotating help defense. For being just a jump shooter last year, there was no hesitation in this drive and a quick understanding that the defense was out of position. If he can do this regularly 20 points per game might not be out of reach.

10. Team 99’s ceiling is extremely high

All of this to say that I am very excited about Team 99. I think Villanova is a very experienced and skilled basketball team that plays in a weak conference. This means they should be in or around the top 10 all season and be in the running for another top 3 seed. On a day that the Wolverines went 10+ minutes with scoring they had this victory in their grasp, but couldn’t finish. I also think that Michigan’s ceiling is much higher than Villanova. How much better can such an experienced team really get? Team 99 is already a solid tournament team, but just think of all of the ifs that can make them even better.

I know this is a really long post about a lot of positive points from a team that just lost, and I know there are countless areas that need to improve. However, New York provided a learning experience that the coaching staff will undoubtedly use to make a good team get better. It is going to be another fun ride this year!

Michigan Basketball Open Practice Thoughts

 

Another football season is almost over, and with it another blog absence. Last year I forced myself to get through most of the atrocious season, and this year I stopped caring before the leaves changed. However, as the football team blindly stumbles to a finish it brings the start of the basketball season.  Coach Beilein held an open practice for Team 99, and I was lucky enough to attend. Even though many writers have posted their opinions of the 60 minute practice, I wanted to throw out some of my impressions.

 

First thing that I noticed was just how much I enjoyed sitting with a friend listening to John Beilein coach the game that I love. This was not just a shoot around or midnight madness type event. The B1G’s best coach used the hour to actually coach and try to make his team better. From running ‘warm-up’ drills that had most of the team reaching for towels to sending a few players up the stairs for playing ‘pretty’ basketball.

The practice started with a series of drills and then ended with a few minutes of light scrimmaging.  While there may be questions about the team’s physicality or defense, there is absolutely no question about their athleticism. It seems like Michigan is preparing to run a 9 man rotation with Biefeldt and likely MAAR inserted in times of foul trouble or injury, with 10 of those 11 players being extremely athletic. Right now it appears to be Coach Beilein’s most athletic roster since coming to Ann Arbor. Athleticism doesn’t equal wins (just ask Kentucky), but this program has been rebuilt.

Some quick individual notes:

Aubrey Dawkins will play valuable minutes for this year’s team.  I really don’t understand how his major offer was Dayton until Michigan came calling late in the recruiting period. He jumps out of the gym, runs well, has a very repeatable/smooth release that is unblockable thanks to his jumping ability, seemingly has a high IQ being the son of a coach, and has a very solid 6’6” frame.  He is light years ahead of where Caris LeVert was at this point of their freshman seasons. Of course I need to note that Dawkins took a prep year, while Caris is extremely young for his age so NBA scouts would look at both of them as ‘sophomores’. I am going to go out on a limb and say, with this coaching staff, Dawkins has the ability to develop into an all-conference type performer that will get a shot in the NBA. Not bad for another late recruiting find.

A lot of players worked extremely hard this summer with Strength Coach John Sanderson. Derrick Walton, Zak Irvin, Spike Albrecht, Caris LeVert, DJ Wilson, and Ricky Doyle all have different bodies than they did in April.  Most notably Derrick, Zak, and Spike put on a lot of muscle which should help them withstand the physicality of the B1G schedule.

Kam Chatman looks very comfortable with the ball in his hands. This should add another dimension to Michigan’s fast break game as the Wolverines will likely have 4 players on the floor that can handle the ball and push the tempo. Having this versatility should create a lot of open transition threes (remember most of Irvin’s shot attempts?). Of course he is still a freshman and will likely be looking to add 15 pounds of muscle next summer, but he will be your starter at the 4 spot from day 1.

The Center position still looks up for grabs. Mark Donnal got the run with the first team last night but is still struggling with his confidence, especially when catching the ball in the post. Ricky Doyle seemed to be dealing with some sort of minor injury, and was only able to participate in roughly half of the practice. However, when healthy Doyle offers a much bigger body which will really help in the pick and roll game, but will likely be limited by conditioning (think freshman McGary). DJ Wilson also got some playing time at the 5, and immediately his length impacts the game. He is the lone true rim protector on the team, but his strength will be put to the test against some of the bigger players in the conference. Each player brings a different specialty to the table, and all three will see the floor this season.  All Michigan needs is a passable center that can hold his own on the glass and is not a complete defensive liability, and I think these guys will be able to offer this by the end of the season.  But watch out when these guys feel comfortable in their roles because John Beilein’s last two offenses have been some of the best college basketball has seen the past 20 years, and that is without a center that can stretch the floor.

Coach Beilein ended practice by pointing out this team’s potential, and said ‘watch this team grow.’ I don’t know what Team 99’s ceiling is or how they will finish in the B1G, but I do know  they will continue to improve and it will be another fun ride.