A peek at the B1G standings

I wanted to take another look at the current B1G standings and look forward to the B1G tournament and possible matchups.  Iowa had the biggest week of anyone so far, and if they wouldn’t have blown so many early non-conference games in December this team would likely be on the good side of the bubble.  They knocked off Wisconsin for the second time this season behind the hot shooting of Gatens, and they smoked Indiana over the weekend.  They currently sit at 7-8 in the conference, and would likely need to win out and then a game or two in the tourney to make the selection committee interested in the Hawkeyes. 

The current standings:

MSU                                      12-3

OSU/ Michigan                  11-4

Wisconsin                            9-6

Indiana/ Purdue               8-7

Iowa                                      7-8

NW                                        6-9

Minnesota/ Illinois          5-10

Nebraska/ PSU                 4-11

Michigan State controls its own fate on the road to a regular season championship.  But, they still have 2 tough games left on the schedule.  After they dispose of Nebraska, they have to go on the road to Indiana, and then finish at home against the Bucknuts.  They could easily go 1-2 in this stretch and take themselves out of the title tie.  If they lose next week to Indiana, the pressure builds exponentially for the season finale.  As much as I would like to see State lose those last 2 games, I can’t really see them losing any.  They are on another nice winning streak right now, and are playing some of the best basketball in the nation.  OSU has the talent to beat them, but they have building a new tattoo parlor with all of their bricks in the last few games. IU is very tough at home, but it depends on which IU team shows up for the game.  A win vs MSU will help their seeding for the tourney, but I see Tom Izzo taking care of his little buddy Tom Crean again. 

We all know about Michigan’s schedule, it is the easiest of anyone in the top 3.  They have senior night against Purdue tomorrow night, and then finish the season with 2 road games against Illinois and Penn St.  Purdue is a different team away from Mackey Arena, but they are no slouch.  They would like another quality win to end the season to solidify their tournament hopes.  More of the preview later.  Michigan has not won at Illinois since 1997.  Even though they are in a free fall right now, and Bruce Weber looks about as lame duck as they get, winning in Assembly Hall is always tough.  The Penn St finale is one of those must win games.  Michigan will need to win out to keep pace with the two big dogs in the conference.

Ohio State hosts Wisconsin, goes to Northwestern and Michigan St to end the season.  This might be the toughest remaining 3 games of anyone in the conference.  Wisconsin seemed to sleep walk through most of the Iowa game, and when they did start playing Gatens wouldn’t miss a shot.  It will be interesting to see which Wisconsin team shows up in C-bus this weekend.  They are capable of pulling off the upset, but it is unlikely.  Northwestern needs to win out to even have a hope for their first NCAA tourney bid.  They will play tough at home, but Northwestern just does not have the big bodies to corral Sullinger.  At Michigan St will be a great way to complete the conference season.  OSU will be looking for revenge after getting physically dominated on their home floor, but Michigan St still has not lost at home.  I think Draymond Green will make it very difficult for OSU to win this game and spoil his day. 

Wisconsin should be able to finish off the year 2-1, since they go to OSU then are at home against Minnesota and Illinois.  This will likely put them in 4^th place by themselves.  IU has to go to Minnesota who is still fighting for a tournament bid, and needs some quality wins. Then they are home against MSU and Purdue.  They are capable of losing all 3 of these games, but will likely lose at least 1.  It will be a battle with Purdue for that 5^th seed.  I think IU will finish 1-2, and 9-9 in the conference.  Purdue has two very tough road games at Michigan and IU, so the Hoosier battle to end the season will likely decide the 5^th place seed.  I would rather play Wisconsin in the 2^nd round than OSU/MSU/ U-M.  Iowa could even win out this season with games at Illinois, Nebraska, and home against NW.  They have a decent shot at pulling up with a 5^th place tie in the conference.  I am not sure who would own the tie breaker at that point.

It seems likely that the top 3 seeds will be (in some order) MSU, Michigan, and OSU.  Then the 4^th place race comes down to Wisconsin, IU, and Purdue, and to a lesser extent Iowa.  Northwestern will likely be the 8^th seed playing Minnesota or Illinois in the first round.  I think they will get the chance to play MSU in the second, as the 1 seed.  Michigan has a good chance at revenge against Iowa in the second round if they can get past Illinois.  Then OSU will likely get to face Purdue again in the second round. 

A lot can happen in the last 2 weeks of the regular season and B1G tourney, but all I can say is that I cannot wait for the events to unfold!  J