Pitchers and catchers have reported to camp, which means the wait for Opening Day 2012 is getting smaller. This year the Tigers come in as the Vegas favorites to win a World Series.
From the reports that I have heard, Rick Porcello has looked great in this offseason and may be able to show some improvement this year. Apparently last season he was injured in the off season and was not able to work on his endurance and conditioning as much as he would have liked. This year there is no such problem. While he does not have the electric stuff that Verlander has, 15-17 wins from Rick would be pretty special. His ERA will likely stay around the same this year since the Tigers will enter opening day as the worst fielding team in the league. Being a ground ball, sinker ball, pitcher Rick might need to develop another secondary pitch to record more strike outs this season. It would be a good improvement if Rick could consistently pitch deep into games this season.
Some advanced metrics predicted that Verlander would go 17-12 this year with a 3.01 ERA. While he did set the bar extremely high after last season, I just cant see that big of a step back this season. With the impressive offense the Tigers will put to the plate this season, a 3.01 ERA should not result in 12 losses. I would be really surprised if JV was worse than 17-8 with a 3.00 ERA.
Most people are predicting the biggest step back in the rotation to come from Doug Fister this season. He is unlikely to continue his hot streak while in Detroit. Last season he ended the year with an 8-1 record and a 1.75 ERA while sporting the old English D. He is also a sinker ball pitcher that will make our suspect infield work for outs, but he was able to record more strike outs that Porcello could last season. I think Fister is one of those under the radar pitchers that nobody is talking about this off season. Detroit won the AL Central easily last season, and a big reason was because of Doug’s second half. what would it look like this year when we get him for all 30+ starts. I think Fister will likely get to 15 wins this season.
I don’t know what to think about Max Scherzer, but he has the pitching ability to become a very good 3rd starter. I think it will be important for him to improve his endurance to get his inning totals up this season. Our bullpen is very good at the back end, but the middle relief is still a question mark coming into this new year. Any extra out we can record from the starters will be very important. Max will likely be a roller coaster again this year. He will undoubtedly have the one game where he looks unhittable and has about 10 strike outs and gives up 1 run, but these starts need to begin to outweigh the ones where he drops a stink pickle on the mound and gets pulled after 3 innings or so. I can’t see his ERA being much less than 4.00 this season, and actually that would be a pretty good improvement for him. If he can reduce the amount of walks he gives up, I think that will have a direct correlation to his ERA. Another 15 win season would be a very good season this year, but I can only see him getting 12-15 this year.
The 5th starter is again a big question this year. At this point it seems like a sure thing that Detroit is going to move forward with one of their prospects, at least to begin the season. Depending on what happens in spring training, the race seems down to three guys, Justin Turner, Andy Oliver, and Drew Smyly. I think Smyly will likely get the first crack at holding down the roster spot because he is a more polished pitcher at this point and is a lefty, something the Tigers have not had for a while. Justin Turner is the better prospect with a higher ceiling right now, but he has not developed his secondary pitches enough yet. I definitely think Turner will get more starts this season though, and might even be the 5th starter by the end of the year. I like the idea of trying out young talent. I know Brad Penny did ok in this spot last year, but he was the definition of average. At least by letting these young guys get a crack, fans will be more intrigued to see these guys than the Bartender. If the Tigers get 10 wins out of this pitchers spot, they will likely have a similar record to last season.
Regardless of what happens, spring training is here. Opening day less than 2 months away. Memorial Day at Fenway Park only 3 months away. Baseball is back!!!! Eat em up Tigers!
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