Michigan Basketball Exhibition Game Notes

Michigan basketball will open their season tomorrow night after 2 exhibition games and weeks of practice. The Wolverines should again be in the B1G title discussion, and provide its fans with another memorable ride.  After watching 80 minutes of glorified scrimmages, I was able to glean a few bits of useful knowledge about the 2013-14 basketball team.

Let’s start with the encouraging aspects.  This Wolverine team has the ability to be a much better defensive unit.  It is still unclear how the new rule changes will affect B1G basketball, but I am confident that Michigan will adjust rather seamlessly.  The maize and blue had one of the lowest foul rates in America last season, which should carry over into this year. The Wolverines welcome two stellar defensive freshmen to the fold, and the source of many breakdowns last year (Stauskas and GRIII) are a year older. Michigan could pull out a lineup of LeVert – Stauskas – Irvin – Robinson III – McGary. Super athletic 2’s will be able to attack Nik, but the extreme length on the court will be able to stymie any dribble penetration. I would expect this lineup to get more use in the B1G, especially against teams that want to slow down the pace against Michigan.  I’m looking at you Ohio State and Wisconsin.

This team can shoot.  Yes, replacing Trey and Tim is going to be a challenge, and yes this team will have its fair share of growing pains. However, one thing that Coach Beilein has said is the three point line is the great equalizer, and this team can shoot. Everyone knows about Stauskas’ spot up ability, but then add in a more confident LeVert, GRIII, Albrecht, and two elite freshmen shooters Walton and Irvin. This team can pencil in 30 points from behind the equality line.

The natural thought process to stop Michigan shooters then will be to close out the 3 point line hard. The problem here is that the Wolverines are just as comfortable attacking the hoop. LeVert and GRIII will get more points from the paint and free throw line than from deep. Nik has bulked up, which has already improved his ability to absorb contact. Then throw in freshman manchild Irvin to the mix, and the Wolverines are going to challenge opponent’s interior defense.

The 2013-14 Wolverines best ability might be their passing game. When Mitch is slotted as the center, Michigan will have 5 guys who are comfortable setting up teammates. Derrick Walton is a pass first point guard, who already excels in setting up wings in the fast break. Nik and Caris are already better than Tim Hardaway in the pick and roll game.  According to the coaching staff, Glenn led the team in assists during practice. Top this group off with Mitch McGary who can cripple teams at the high post and is the best outlet passer in college basketball since Kevin Love. This is going to result in a lot of open looks and easy baskets. The Wolverines should push 20 team assists most nights.

Of course, I need to temper my excitement with a few questions that this squad needs to answer over the course of the season.  The most glaring is Mitch McGary.  When will he come back? How effective will he be? How long will it take for him to get back into game shape? Will the back issue limit him all season? The coaching staff and Mitch have been very optimistic regarding the injury, even if it has left the rest of us in the dark.  Coach Beilein told Sports Illustrated that they have a timeline for his return, and Mitch is right on pace. This makes me believe that when the Vanilla Gorilla is cleared to play, the back is not expected to be a lingering issue.  Everyone wants him full go in time for the Puerto Rico tournament or at least when the team travels to Duke, but championships are not won in November and December. Since this injury will likely keep big number 4 off the floor for some time, don’t expect Michigan to duplicate the 16-0 start from last season. 

The 2 bigs lineup that has started both exhibition games do not work.  It is not that the Wolverines are just less effective in this set, this lineup doesn’t work, period. Jordan Morgan can defend some 4’s, but not many and his offensive inability limits Michigan’s rhythm and efficiency.  Both Horford and Morgan are pigeon-holed centers, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing it just means that they cannot be interchanged like the wings.  The 2 bigs lineup needs to be shelved until McGary comes back because he is the only player on the roster that can excel at either post position.  Horford saw the majority of the minutes in both exhibition games, but I expect Morgan to be in the starting lineup tonight.

It is going to be quite a year for the basketball season. Competing for the B1G regular season title and making the second weekend of the tournament are realistic expectations for this team with or without Mitch McGary.  Once, or if, the big guy comes back and is in game shape the Wolverines should pass the Spartans as the conference’s Final Four favorite.