Mercifully we have made it to the regular season finale. Unfortunately the Wolverines have to face the toughest opponent on the schedule, and one that is still looking for style points to jump into the top 2 of the BCS standings.
The Buckeyes boast one of the best rushing attacks in the B1G. They are led by senior Carlos Hyde and dual-threat quarterback Braxton Miller. The offensive line is experienced, and has improved throughout the season. Last year Michigan focused on stopping Miller, and they succeeded for the most part. However, Hyde had a huge game and was able to ice the win in the fourth quarter when the Wolverines could not stop him. Again Michigan has a good run defense, but it will be tested time and again on Saturday. It is likely that Coach Mattison wants to use a similar game plan to take away Miller’s home run threat and try to contain Hyde between the tackles. It will be interesting to see if Michigan tries to deploy a linebacker spy for Miller which will effectively remove a player from the box. The Wolverines have improved when defending the option, but look for that improvement to be tested. Ohio State will try to attack the edges against the offense. The scary thing is if it is not working, the offensive line and Hyde are still able to run between the tackles. Look for Frank Clark to continue his redemption tour season, and for him and Cam Gordon/Ryan to shut down the option. Hyde will test the interior defense, which they will likely find success against undersized Jibreel Black. Ohio State will likely still push 170+ rushing yards, but it will be important for the Wolverines to keep the yards per carry under 5. Advantage Ohio State.
Ohio State Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
The Michigan secondary will probably continue their roller coaster season. There have been times when they look like a near shut down unit, but then just as soon as thinking that they can break down and give up a huge play. Hopefully Jarrod Wilson and Thomas Gordon play the whole way, and Courtney Avery only sees spot time at a nickel back. Braxton Miller has never been the most accurate passer, but Ohio State uses the short passing routes and screens to get their quarterback into a comfortable mind set. If Michigan cannot defend the run with the standard 4-3 defense, and need to start cheating a safety into the box look for Miller to look for one of his speedsters down the field. Michigan dialed up the pressure against Northwestern, but then sat back into the bend but don’t break defense against Iowa. Even though the Buckeye offensive line is very good, Coach Mattison has to take chances and send a wide array of blitzes. Miller is very prone to mistakes when under pressure, and it is the only way to slow down the OSU offense. Even if Frank Clark has a good day in the backfield, he will need help. I think a lot of that will come from a combination of Ross, Ryan, and Cam Gordon. Look for the secondary to record at least one interception, but also give up at least one big play over the top likely to Corey Brown. Advantage Ohio State.
Michigan Rush Offense vs Ohio State Rush Defense
In one word: death. The Wolverines were dominant by their standards last week when they rushed for 3 yards per carry. The Buckeye defense is not as stout against the run as Iowa is, so there could be some yards for the taking here. The problem is that the Wolverines might be the worst rushing team in the country. Even with Derrick Green and DeVeon Smith getting a bulk of the carries, their ability to fall forward results in getting back to the line of scrimmage. Ohio State’s defense can be attacked here, but it is very unlikely with Gardner nowhere near 100% and the offensive line blocking less defenders than reach the backfield. Most teams should be able to achieve 4 yards per carry against this Buckeye defense, but I would consider it a win if the Wolverines could replicate last week’s output. Advantage Ohio State.
Michigan Pass Offense vs Ohio State Pass Defense
Iowa didn’t blitz as much as the previous three opponents, and therefore the Wolverine offensive line only gave up one sack. This could be looked at as a major step forward, and while it was nice to see Devin upright for most of the game, the offensive line will need to take another huge step this week. The Buckeyes are the best pass rushing team in the conference. The defensive line replaced a lot from last year, and seemingly have not missed a beat. Many of the stars are Urban’s first recruits, whereas Hoke’s offensive recruits have yet to show their high rankings. I expect the interior of the line to get blown up all day, and Ohio State won’t even have to blitz much. It will be much worse if they send Ryan Shazier as a heat seeking missile. I would be surprised if the Michigan quarterback is sacked less than 5 times. The question will be if/when Devin has time if he can exploit the high risk/ high reward secondary Jeremy Gallon and Devin Funchess could have a lot of receiving yards. However, I don’t expect much success in this area either. If Devin has time, and could get into a rhythm early in the game Michigan could push 250 yards in the air, but this has not happened since Indiana and I doubt it will on Saturday. I just hope the duct tape holding Gardner together doesn’t rip in half, and the Michigan quarterback finds a way to leave in one piece. Advantage Ohio State.
The line is anywhere between 13 and 16 depending on which site you look at, and both numbers are probably still too low. Ohio State and Urban Meyer want to leave a good impression with the BCS voters, and they need quality wins and style points. Don’t expect the Buckeyes to take their foot off the gas until the clock is at zero. Michigan has done a better job at protecting the ball the last few weeks, but if the turnover bug strikes again this game will get out of a hurry fast. The only hope for the Wolverines is if the offensive line has a career day, and Gardner finds his confidence even though he can barely still stand. On top of that, the defense would need to force a few turnovers and give the offense a short field. That is a lot of ifs. Lets just take it as a win if the Big House isn’t a sea of red, but I doubt Michigan wins that battle either. Ohio State 38 Michigan 7.
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