The Wolverines successfully got dominated last week and have very little, outside of pride, to play for in these last 4 weeks. Nebraska comes to Ann Arbor as the only team in the Legends Division that can challenge MSU, but even that is an extremely low possibility. I guess both teams are hoping to finish relatively strong to secure a New Year’s Day bowl.
Nebraska Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The Huskers are led by one of the most productive backs in the country. Ameer Abdullah is 6th in the nation in rush yards, and he has a great yards per carry average. However, Taylor Martinez has been confirmed out for tomorrow and Nebraska’s offensive line is extremely beat up. The Wolverines should be able to key on Abdullah all game and load the box with 8 guys much of the afternoon. It will be interesting to see if Quinton Washington plays most of the snaps, or if the Wolverines decide to use a Nickel package much of the afternoon. Look for Desmond Morgan and James Ross to reclaim the lead for most tackles. Abdullah has been the focal point of every defensive plan since Martinez has been injured, yet somehow he manages to find yards and crack 100. Michigan brings the best run defense that Nebraska has seen this year, but I think Abdullah will still find some yards. It will be important that the Wolverines do not give up back breaking scrambles to either backup quarterback. Advantage Michigan
Nebraska Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
The Huskers started the season with the best receiving unit in the conference, but they roll into week 11 battered and broken like every other unit donning the red and white. Speedster Kenny Bell is unlikely to play tomorrow, and big-bodied Quincy Enunwa sat out plays last week against Northwestern. If neither play Michigan could use an all freshmen secondary and still have the advantage. Both backup quarterbacks are a major step back from Martinez, and can be turnover prone. If Bell and Enunwa are able to play, the suspect quarterback play will be able to be bailed out on some errant throws. It will be interesting to see if Michigan mans up each cornerback for the game, because none of the freshman corners will be able to physically compete with the stronger Enunwa. He seems like the perfect matchup for Taylor. On the other hand, Bell is the downfield threat for the Huskers which seems like a good choice for Countess. Nebraska does not throw to tight ends very often, so the third cornerback might not be called on much. Since both starting guards are out for tomorrow, and the remaining three guys have been injured at some point this season Nebraska’s pass protection has found their worst case scenario. Frank Clark had one of his best games against Michigan State, and seems to be coming along very nicely. I expect him to have back to back impact games, but this time come away with at least one sack. The new guards will likely struggle with Washington and Black, which should give both ends single coverage. It will be interesting to see which defensive lineman draws the double team, because all four need to be able to beat the single block in front of them in this game. I expect at least one interception by the Wolverine defense, and multiple sacks. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan Rush Offense vs Nebraska Rush Defense
Well the Husker defense is one of the worst in the conference. On top of that they have experienced some injuries in the front seven. They should get a chance to get healthy against the Wolverine ineptitude. Nebraska has two big bodies up the middle that the interior offensive line will again struggle with. Both defensive ends are better pass rushers than run stoppers, so Michigan will need to attack the edges. This can be done with the zone read and inverted veer runs. If Devin was completely healthy and confident, this would be a game he could get to the second level at will. The problem is he probably still has nightmares of linebackers running unblocked and using his ribs like a trampoline. I expect him to be more hesitant and protective in the running game, which will leave Fitz to pick up yards. Toussaint has been left on his own most run attempts, and struggles to get to the line of scrimmage. While most teams rush for 150+ yards on Nebraska, Michigan should worry about just running forward this week. Advantage Nebraska.
Michigan Pass Offense vs Nebraska Pass Defense
For how bad the Husker defense has been this season, they do a reasonably good job of getting to the quarterback. The added pressure has resulted in a lot of bad throws and interceptions for the defense. Nebraska is in the top half of the B1G is passing yards allowed per game. Where they really excel is in third down conversion rate. Usually third downs are predictable passing plays, and the Huskers bring 1-3 extra rushers. This is particularly worrisome for Michigan because they seem to like going backwards on first and second downs, and then force Devin to make a play on third and long. If the Wolverines can give Gardner any time and space to gain confidence and step into his throws he will pick apart the Husker defense. I doubt this Michigan offensive line could stop the Care Bears from getting into the backfield. If the Wolverines can avoid third downs they can put up a lot of points, but if they are put in predictable downs it could spell another frustrating game. The Huskers do have two very good cornerbacks, but if routes have time to develop not many could stay with both Gallon and Funchess for 60 minutes. There will be opportunities in the passing game, both quick reads and down field. Advantage Push.
This preview is really frustrating because Nebraska is an average football team that has been devastated by injuries. The shell of the team that will take the field tomorrow is a borderline joke. Most years I would expect Michigan to dominate in all phases of this game and discard the Huskers like any of the conference bottom dwellers. The problem is that this Wolverine team has been the punch line of their own jokes for 2 months now. This game will end up being a glorified pillow fight with the winner having an advantage for a January 1st bowl (somehow). Nebraska’s defense is bad, but their only strength will be able to exploit Michigan’s sieve of an offensive line. The Huskers might be able to exploit that mismatch enough to stay in the game. If the Wolverines could execute a good game plan, this result would be lopsided by halftime. Instead, Michigan will likely start slow and let Nebraska hang around. I fully expect the Wolverines to win this game, and even with all of the problems I think it will be a double digit win. However, after what I saw last week with 2 weeks to prepare I just do not feel right picking Michigan to win any game for the rest of the year.
Nebraska 21 Michigan 6.5 (3.5 for home field advantage)
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