After the past 5 games, I assume most Michigan fans feel like Cody Zeller above (punched below the belt by Derrick Nix). Heading into the showdown with Indiana on February 2nd most people thought the Wolverines were the best team in the nation, but in just a few weeks most people now think Michigan will struggle to get to the Sweet 16. Why the sudden loss of confidence?
The primary answer is easy, the Wolverines could only manage 1 win in their toughest 4 game stretch of the season, and that one victory was at home. Then, in their latest outing, the worst team in the B1G hung around all game on Michigan's home floor. Two of the losses in this stretch were very emotionally charged. It looked like the Wolverines finally eked out a win in the Kohl Center when Wisconsin hit a 40 foot running jump shot as the game expired, and the maize and blue eventually fell in overtime. Then Michigan traveled to East Lansing where they were embarassed by our biggest basketball rival. The regular season conference title now is likely out of reach, but even the small hope to be co-champions again can only happen if Michigan wins their last 5 games which includes games against Michigan State and Indiana.
I personally think this team is somewhere between the high expectations on February 2nd and the pessimistic early NCAA tourney exit. I do not believe that this Michigan team is a legitimate national championship contender at this point, but I do think an Elite Eight or Final Four run is not unlikely. Still, if Michigan gets healthy and plays up to their capability they are one of the most talented teams in the country, but recently we have also seen how the grind of the nation's toughest conference can wear a team down.
I am very interested to see how Michigan responds this Sunday against surging Illinois. The young Wolverines will have had a much needed week off, Jordan Morgan should be close to 100% healthy, and the coaching staff should have been able to focus on some defensive fundamentals that were lacking the past 2 games. The Wolverines could come out a little rusty like they did after their last week off, but I expect the overall game to be much improved. My expectations will continue to slide if the effort looks more like the Penn State game instead of any other conference home game thus far.
There are still three milestones left in the season: March 10th (end of the regular season), March 17th (end of B1G tourney), April 8th (end of NCAA tournament). With Indiana's win at Michigan State on Tuesday, I think the regular season title is now out of reach, but it will be important for the Wolverines to get a favorable seed to at least get to the semi-final. Personally, I would like to see Michigan keep their first day bye and stay out of the 4 vs 5 game. Depending on how the regular season finishes up, the conference champion should be slotted as the top number 1 seed, which should leave the other 2 top flight teams a chance to steal the final top seed with a B1G tournament championship. Finally, a lot of the success in the NCAA tournament will depend on the seeding and matchups. Michigan should play their first two games close to home, which at the very least, should propel them to the second weekend. Also, like I mentioned earlier, the Wolverines talent level is on par with any top 5 team, so making a run of 6 straight wins at the end of March is still not out of the realm of possibilities.
After these disappointing 2 weeks, what are your new expectations for this basketball team?
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