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| John B after a bad call... |
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| Tommy after a good call... |
Tonight will go a long way in deciding which of these teams are going to compete with Indiana for the regular season conference title. While it is not a must-win game for the Wolverines, another top 10 road win would be a great bounce back to their lackluster performance in Madison over the weekend. The Spartans are looking to keep serve on their home court and prove to the country that they are still the team of note in the mitten state.
Just like the Indiana game, this contest has many exciting match up possibilities. Both teams will try to force their game on the other. In Michgan's case, they need to be looking to exploit the athletic mismatch of Payne guarding GR3. Robinson is the superior athlete, but has been silenced so far this season in most raucous road atmospheres. If the Wolverines are able to get out in transition and find a streaking GR3 for easy buckets, it could force Tom Izzo to abort the 2 big man rotation to match Michigan's smaller, athletic lineup. On the other end, since Michigan will likely be without Jordan Morgan again, the Spartans will try to attack the post against the inexperienced Wolverines. Derrick Nix will put a lot of pressure on Mitch McGary to play defense with his feet and not his body or hands, and Adreian Payne will be a problem to keep off of the offensive glass. Without Michigan's best post defender, John Beilein will likely shy away from playing 2 post players at one time because of the foul concerns. This is going to put a lot of pressure on the Robinson to play with better energy. Also, with this game being played in East Lansing, it is likely that Mitch McGary will start the game with 2 fouls. While the absence of Jordan Morgan was felt some against Wisconsin, the style of play from Michigan State will likely make that an overwhelming weakness.
But, all hope is not yet lost. Since, Trice is likely out with a concussion, the Spartans will be forced to play a 6 man rotation for the majority of the game because Izzo does not trust his bench outside of Denzel Valentine. It will be important for the Michigan guards to attack the hoop and not settle for contested jump shots. Keith Appling and Valentine are very susceptible to picking up fouls because of not moving their feet on defense. Depending on how the refs call the game, Trey Burke should be able to use that to his advantage. If either point guard gets into foul trouble, the Spartans will be forced to go deeper into their bench where there is little to be desired. Michigan State has struggled to defend the pick and roll at times this season, which is good news for the Wolverines. This has a lot to do with Derrick Nix having the defensive range of a fire hydrant. Burke should be able to get into the lane more tonight, which will likely force Dawson to suck into the middle. It will be crucial for Hardaway and Stauskas to take some scoring pressure off from Burke.
I don't think this game will have the feel it has the past two seasons, since both teams are more capable of playing at a quicker pace. We could actually see the winner score 70 points. I have discussed Michigan's defensive deficiencies many times, and Tom Izzo is one of the best at exploiting mismatches, so it seems very unlikely for Michigan to hold the Spartans under 65 points. For the Wolverines to stick around in this game, and ultimately win, 2 of the 3 freshman playing major minutes will need to score at least their season average. Also, on the defensive end, it will be important to for McGary to stay out of foul trouble. If the refs are calling a tight game, then at some point Vanilla Thunder will just need to be unleashed and allowed to foul out. He will need to be able to get into the rhythm of the game. So far this season Michigan has bounced back with 2 huge wins after losses, and a third tonight would put them back in control of their own B1G destiny.
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