OSU preview

As I watch MSU dominate Wisconsin yet again this season, I will give a quick update as we take on the Bucknuts for the 3rd time. 

OSU hasnt changed much since the last time we met in Ann Arbor, the main difference is we are playing on a neutral court.  This will be the rubber match for the season series, and it will also be the 3rd year in a row that we play in the BTT.  Michigan has hung tough the last two post season meetings even though they have been outmatched in both. 

OSU has 4 guys that got B1G recognition, Sullinger (1st team), Buford (2nd team), Thomas (2nd team), and Craft (the most ridiculous B1G defensive player of the year).  At least the pumpkin head coach didnt win COY. 

Offensively, OSU has one goal, get Sullinger the ball early and often and let him decide what to do.  In some instanes he forces way too many shots (MSU first game, and the first half of their 2nd meeting), but in others when his teammates are making shots, he feels very confident passing out of the double team to find open corner 3s.  Craft usually doesnt contribute much in terms of points but he facilitates the offense.  Buford has been as streaky as Hardaway lately, but when he is scoring he can take over the game. Sullinger is usually a high volume scorer that will inevitably take multiple bad shots.  Thomas is extremely athletic, and was the other reason they hung in the game in Ann Arbor. He also is a very streaky scorer and we will find out early if it is an on or off day.  Lenzelle Smith has entered the starting lineup, he dominated the Wolverines the first matchup. He is a great offensive rebound and finisher, but also a very streaky shooter. With the soft rims at Indy so far, it would be a good guess that at least 2 out of these 3 guys will have a good shooting night.  The key here is what it is in every other Michigan game, they can play the best defense possible for 35 seconds, but if they force teams into bad shots they have to be able to control the defensive glass.

Defensively OSU sticks to the man to man, they very rarely drop into a zone. They funnel everything into Sullinger where he defends the hoop.  Craft has been awful at stopping Burke in the first two matchups this season, so hopefully Burke takes it to the defensive player of the year again.  Buford will try to slow down Hardaway, but in reality Hardaway will only slow down himself.  If he is shooting the ball confidently, nobody on this team can stop him.  Smith will be matched up with Douglass.  He loses his assigment quite a bit which will allow Stu with some open looks from deep. Stu will have to have a good shooting night for Michigan to win.  Thomas will likely be assigned to Novak. This is one of these matchups where if Novak can keep the point differential to 10 points in favor of Thomas, Michigan will be in a good position to win. 

Michigan will use the pick and roll to get Burke attacking Sullinger.  Depending on the refs, this could get the cry baby in foul trouble or just make it very difficult for Trey.  Hopefully the rims continue to be forgiving in these games so Michigan can shoot close to 40% from behind the long line, and the Wolverines will have to knock down their opportunities from the foul line. Offensive rebounds will come at a premium, so any that Michigan can steal will need to be converted into points.

The bottom line is that OSU is more talented than Michigan, period.  The Wolverines will have to play a better game than yesterday to pull off their 2nd win against this legitimate top 10 team.  They will have to win the turnover battle, stay out of foul trouble, and limit offensive rebounds. A win today should secure Michigan as one of the top 3 seeds in the tournament.  I think the extra 5 minutes of game play yesterday will come back to hurt us as a primary jump shooting team, and OSU played very confidently against Purdue yesterday.  I think Michigan will hang close early, but will likely fade and allow OSU to go on a big run at some point.  I dont know if we will have enough energy to overcome it. Prediction: OSU 70 Michigan 61

Let's hope I am wrong and we win by 20. Go Blue!