So I am just going to move right past any analysis from the OSU game on Saturday. Mainly because we got curb stomped by the Bucknuts, I hope the terribleness was a result of being tired from the night before, but OSU seemed to have the game plan perfect against us the 3rd time around. It resulted in a better team playing one of their most complete games of the season, it just was not fun to watch especially on national TV. After the game I realized how hard it is to win the BTT. Even if you get a first round bye, you have to play 3 games in 3 days against some of the best teams in the nation. The first one will usually be against a desperate team that has to win the tourney to make the Big Dance, then you get 2 likely top 12 teams back to back. And unlike the Maui tournament early this season, these games are against fellow B1G teams that play B1G style basketball: physical. So now as Michigan fans we have to hope that we can continue our streak of not losing 2 games in a row.
Onto the NCAA tournament preview. The complete domination at the hands of Matta’s Meatheads likely dropped Michigan from the 3 line to a 4 seed. At first this was disappointing, but after looking at our matchup I will not trade it with Georgetown. The preview for the Ohio game is coming, but this is more for just a bracket overview.
Kentucky is the overall favorite to roll through the bracket and cut down the nets. As much as I hate this idea, there is no team nearly as good as the Wildcats. Syracuse will be without Fab Melo for the entire tournament, which makes them a candidate to get upset by Kansas St in the 2nd round. UNC had been playing well until Henson got hurt, and nobody knows really how serious it is or if he will come back at 100%. Michigan St is a very solid team that I think could roll into New Orleans, but they are matched up against the toughest 8 seed in the entire bracket. I think I would rather play Temple than Memphis at this point in the season. I don’t think this is a year where all 1 seeds make the Final Four, but I could be wrong again.
I was surprised to see Detroit get a 15 seed, I was thinking more of a 13 or 14. They might be the most talented 15 seed ever in the NCAA tournament. They also have 1 more McDonald’s All-Americans on the roster than Kansas does. It would be awesome to see a local team, led by a local player I watched since his junior year in high school have a good appearance in the NCAA tournament. They got a tough draw with Kansas though, their height will be too much for the guard oriented Titans. I actually think Michigan would struggle a bit with Detroit this season because they are extremely athletic and seem to play better depending on the competition and brightness of the lights. I am not picking this upset, but I will be rooting hard for it to happen.
Some of the upsets that I think are more likely:
1. LBSU over New Mexico, it doesn’t seem fair that this is another 5-12 matchup of 2 mid major teams, both are good enough to make a Sweet 16 run. I have watched LBSU a few times this season and have been very impressed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see The Beach keep dancing.
2. Cal over Temple, another 5-12 matchup. Mainly because I think everyone is overlooking Cal and I just don’t think Temple is all that consistent. Doesn’t mean Temple cant win and then come back and beat Michigan by 20, but just my opinion of them.
3. Montana over Wisconsin. In this 4-13 matchup, it will depend on what Badger team shows up. If it is the one that dominated IU in the BTT then Wisconsin could make an Elite 8 run, if it is the one that showed up against MSU the next afternoon then they could have an early exit.
4. Belmont over Georgetown. GU has lost to a double digit seed the past 3 seasons in the NCAA tournament. I think this streak has a good chance of continuing with the high scoring Belmont. I think the tempo might cause the Hoyas some problems, since they struggle to score at times.
5. In the South regional, there are a few different games that could happen, but none that I expect. VCU is playing their best basketball of the season, but get matched up against the best mid-major this year in Wichita St. The Rams can pull off the upset with some good 3 point shooting, but the Shockers should have too much down low presence to allow this. IU might struggle without Verdell Jones, but I think Zeller and Watford are just too good. Xavier could upset Notre Dame (since Mike Brey is one of the top under-performing coaches in the NCAA tourney), but a 10 over a 7 isnt really an upset right?
I don’t really know of any “locks” to make a Final Four because anything can happen in the NCAA tournament, but I do have some bold predictions with teams that will not make the Final Four:
1. Syracuse, without Fab Melo and their already lack of defensive rebounding, is primed to lose early. Either to KSU or Vandy.
2. Florida St, in the same bracket, everyone is so high on the Seminoles right now, but I just don’t like them. I have no reason for my prediction of them losing before the last 4, except that I would be surprised if they put 4 solid games together to make a run.
3. Missouri, now this is one that I wouldn’t mind being wrong about, but I really don’t like their matchup against MSU. They might be the only 1 seed in the tourney that I wouldn’t pick Mizzou to beat. They will have a very tough time locking up the paint against the Spartans. Of course, if MSU loses early, I will be rooting for the Tigers to advance.. they also become the heavy favorites.
4. Georgetown, now this isn’t really a crazy prediction since they are the 3 seed, but I just don’t think the Hoyas are that good. They struggle to score, and if an athletic team can get Sims into foul trouble they really struggle to score and defend the paint. I could see them losing in the first weekend.
5. Finally, Duke. For all of the talent that Coach K has had over the years, this year is not one of them. They have big bodies that just fill up space. They are completely guard oriented, and if they shoot 9-30 from 3 in a game they could go down early. If a team can limit Austin River’s driving abilities, this team doesn’t know where to go to generate points. Xavier has a senior guard that could potentially lock Rivers down a bit, but if Duke advances to the 2nd weekend I cant see them beating Baylor and then either IU, WSU, or Kentucky in one weekend.
These are just some of my thoughts as I look at my bracket, what about you?
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