Well last week was brutal. The Michigan Wolverines take the field tomorrow to try to erase the remaining disgusting taste that is in our collective mouths. I am not sure if one good game will be able to do that, but executing in every phase of the game for the first time this season could be great way to start. At this point I will take just comfortably scoring more points than an over matched opponent.
UConn Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
To put it nicely, the Huskies struggle to run the ball. Their main work horse, Lyle McCombs, is averaging around 3.5 yards per carry. On top of that he is getting little to no help from the offensive line that averages just over 300 pounds. The one thing that will help UConn in this game is that their main offensive scheme is to run a passing spread. If this sounds similar to Akron, Notre Dame, or Central Michigan you would be correct. Michigan has struggled against this style for the past 2 games, and might have against the Chips if their starting quarterback and running back werent injured in the first quarter. The Wolverines will likely elect to continue in their nickel package by removing the nose tackle to insert another cornerback, and so far this year the Jibreel Black at DT and gaggle of 3-techs have been blown off the ball time and again during running plays. If Michigan plays Quinton Washington or Ondre Pipkens more than 50% of the snaps, UConn likely will not scratch 3.5 ypc. The problem is that so far Greg Mattison has been unwilling to change his nickel package, and at this point seems unlikely to make the switch now. Even with this, Michigan should still have the advantage here. They have better athletes in the front 7 than UConn has seen so far this season, and they have to be able to stop the rushing attack. Advantage Michigan.
UConn Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
Like I mentioned earlier, UConn prefers to run a passing spread offense out of the shotgun formation. This scheme prefers to use 3-5 receivers and utilize short passing routes in order to get the ball out of the quarterbacks hands quickly to keep him upright and to allow him to make easy decisions and throws. The problem is that the Huskies offensive line is so bad that they are surrendering 5 sacks per game, and they have only played a bad FCS team and low level ACC squad. Michigan hasn't been good at getting to the quarterback, but they have to be better than Towson and Maryland. Hopefully this game will get the Wolverine front four back on track and into the backfield consistently. If not, Coach Mattison has to change the strategy as we move into B1G play. Michigan seems to be on different wave lengths between the front and back 4. As they are trying to generate an organic pass rush, the opposing quarterbacks are using 3 step drops and very quick passes, and the Wolverine secondary has been playing an extremely soft zone to give make the throws even easier. If the coaches are set on not blitzing extra people, they need to play more press coverage. If they are set on dropping back in max coverage, then the soft zone on the outside is more acceptable. Raymon Taylor had a brutal game last week, and got beat over the top multiple times. He needs to step up this week, or be replaced by Courtney Avery. If UConn is going to have any success tomorrow night they will need to do it through the air, but it is hard not to believe that the Michigan defense comes out a little angry this week in an attempt to make a statement. Advantage Push.
Michigan Rush Offense vs UConn Rush Defense
Depending on which analyst you have listened to this week the Michigan run game has been slowed because of bad line play or bad vision from Fitz. I happen to think it is a little bit of both. The Wolverine interior line continues to miss blocking assignments, which have given Fitz little room to run. On the other hand, Fitz doesn't seem to trust his lead blocker yet, and is determined to hit a homerun on each run. This strategy has resulted in multiple negative rushing yards, when if the lead block was followed would have been 2-4 yard gains. Those 'short' but positive runs tend to add up a lot quicker than -2 yard runs. If Toussaint follows the pulling lineman or the fullback he should finally break 100 yards tomorrow night, but if he continues to prefer to run east and west then it could be another frustratingly long night. I happen to think the offensive line will take offense to Coach Hoke calling the position up for grabs, and respond with a dominant performance. Hopefully Fitz responds as well and decides to get up field quicker than in the first 3 games. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan Pass Offense vs UConn Pass Defense
To continue the theme of this preview, the UConn pass defense is also really bad. The best Huskies defender is redshirt junior MIKE Yawin Smallwood. He is a legitimate NFL prospect, and UConn's best pass rusher. Other than him the Huskies struggle to get to the quarterback, which should help Devin Gardner bounce back from a terrible game last week. The defensive line has struggled to generate any pass rush so far, and UConn still has not recorded a sack. Michigan should be able to spread the ball around between Gallon, Chesson, Dileo, Funchess, and Butt. I would imagine the main game plan is to try to get the running game going, so Devin might have his passing attempts limited, but when he does drop back he should have plenty of time to pick apart UConn's defense. I think the tight ends have a big game, and I would like to see Chesson continue to get targetted because he should be open downfield all game. Advantage Michigan.
UConn might be worse than Akron, but in case you forgot last weekend that does not mean Michigan can overlook a bad team, especially on the road. I hope last week was an eye opener for Team 134, and I expect them to have had a very focused, motivated, week of practice. I think the Wolverines bounce back and look more like the team we saw against Notre Dame than against Akron. Look for a big day from the pass rush and the running game, as Michigan gets a comfortable win against UConn 41-10.
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