As the trade deadline approaches, it is almost guaranteed that Dombrowski will make a move to, in theory, improve the 2012 Detroit Tigers. The problem this could bring is that it would likely come at the expense of our already depleted farm system. People disagree about how to build a baseball franchise. One theory is to go through a rough patch with the major league team, and in the mean time accumulate draft picks and prospects. This is the method used by the more frugal spending teams (Kansas City). The problem that many teams have with this method is they are not able to keep their young talent when they demand an 8 figure paycheck, and the teams that can afford to spend that kind of money do not want to waste 2-5 rough years with their MLB team. This brings me to the 2nd theory, buy anyone you want in free agency and get carpel tunnel from writing all of those zeros. This is usually the fans dream scenario, until the team stops winning and then shit hits the fan (welcome to the Tigers 2008 and 2012 seasons). There are issues with both methods, so the ideal situation lies somewhere in between. The Rangers, Giants, Cardinals, and the Braves have done this very well over the past 5-10 years. More teams are trying to replicate this method than the Yankees buffet style, all you can spend, roster. The Tigers fall just beside the Yankees with their spending habits. It keeps the fans happy in the off-season but creates a lot of frustration during the 162 schedule.
So this season as Detroit tries to improve the 25 man roster with some mid-season moves, the farm system will likely be full of 27 year old journeymen. Let’s start by looking at the possible trade assets Dombrowski currently has to throw at other GMs. The golden egg is Nick Castellanos. He is shooting up through the minors right now and quite the hitter. Every GM in the league will ask if he is available, and the question will be what is his price. Next the Tigers have a stable of pitchers they can add to a marquee deal: Jacob Turner, Andrew Oliver, Casey Crosby, Drew Smyly, and even Rick Porcello. Then they have a list of mediocre borderline major league type guys: Ryan Raburn, Delmon Young, Brennan Boesch, Jhonny Peralta, Don Kelly, Andy Dirks, and Danny Worth.
Now the next step is for the team officials to decide what is the weakest link of the baseball team. Overall, the 2nd base position has been a black hole. That is likely the top priority. An average corner outfielder with a decent OBP would be welcomed to slide into the 5 hole (and this would be my first choice). Then the Tigers could also solidify the starting pitching staff with, ideally, a left-handed pitcher.
Here is the fun part, what is available? For 2nd basemen there are levels of talent, super-star, franchise-type players at this position are all locked up for the next 5 years and are not on the market. That takes us to a young unknown Jose Altuve from the Astros, Jed Lowrie also from the Astros, Darwin Barney from the Cubbies, or Marco Scutaro from the Rockies. Altuve likely has the highest trade value, but has the highest ceiling. He has speed and would be a great 2 hitter behind AJ. He could even be the lead-off guy, but Leyland likes AJ there (and why move someone who is so hot). Lowrie would add an average bat to the lineup, but the intriguing thing with him is he would dramatically improve the defense at short stop, and we could move Peralta to 2nd base. Lowrie could potentially hit in the 2 hole, but likely would be a bottom half guy. Barney’s trade value is also high right now. He would be an improvement defensively, and he is a low power .270-.280 average guy. He would be a good fit in the 2 hole, or down in the order as well. Depending on what the Cubs and Astros ask for, one of these guys could help improve the infield defense for our many ground ball pitchers. It would be great to move Peralta away from the shortstop position, but then he might get that pouty attitude he had in his last season with the Indians if he doesn’t like playing there and he becomes utterly useless. It would be great to improve the infield defense, but I would not be willing to give up a lot of players for any of these 2nd basemen, especially when Raburn will likely hit at least .250 in the 2nd half with some power.
I personally think the Tigers are in desperate need of a 5 hitter that can get on base around a .330-.350 clip. It would reduce a lot of pressure on Miguel and Prince and add it to the opposing pitchers and managers. I think this can be addressed with a corner outfielder, and when VMart comes back from injury they can slide down to the 6th hitter easily enough. The marquee name in this area is Justin Upton. His career OBP is .357 and he hits for power. The problem here is that Castellanos will likely have to be involved in this trade for it to even be considered along with 2-3 more players. Losing our prized prospect will plummet Detroit’s farm system to the bottom of the big leagues and give them little to no trade assets moving forward. On the other hand, Castellanos is still an unknown. Most people believe he is going to be in the MLB sooner rather than later, but his stock has never been higher than it is now after he won the MVP of the futures game. The other outfield options are: Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Quentin, Shane Victorino, and Jeff Franceur. Upton is by far the best player in this bunch, on top of that, Upton is not 25 yet. If he wants to play in Detroit, is it worth selling the farm for? I would be willing to give up Castellanos, Young, Worth/Raburn, and Crosby/Oliver for Upton, but is that offer even going to make the Arizona GM think twice? Soriano is past his prime, can barely field his position and brings a huge contract with him. Shane Victorino isn’t really what Detroit is looking for in terms of an offensive threat, and Franceur isn’t much of an upgrade at the plate from Boesch. That leaves Quentin. I would be interested in making this move if the price was right. I would only give up 2 players at the most (one of the young pitchers and a Raburn/Worth type).
Starting pitching has a few names on the trading block, but the asking price seems too high for the returned value. The Phillies are shopping Cole Hamels. Dempster and Garza from the Cubs are available, and Greinke from the Brewers are the well known names. The A’s are usually looking to dump a pitcher or two, and the Astros have Wandy Rodriguez. Most of these pitchers would improve Detroits starting 5, but the problem is that none of these guys will come at anything resembling a value. The Phillies are looking for 3-5 prospects for Hamels, a 2 month rent-a-player. The Cubs want to dump Soriano’s contract into a trade for one of their pitchers, and the Brewers want 1-2 prospects and an semi-impact player right now for Greinke. Detroit should not trade Castellanos for any of these pitchers. It seems likely that Detroit will roll with the 5 starters they currently have, and if they can make it into the playoffs they will move to a 4 man rotation with Smyly out of the pen.
One thing that is for sure is that this month is going to be exciting to see which players are traded and who Detroit adds to the roster. Dombrowski will do something, but depending on how untouchable Castellanos is will determine the overall added value. I do not think the Tigers will find another Doug Fister or Delmon Young this year.
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