I have talked about our very own basketball team quite a bit already this year, but I thought I would start my B1G preview with the team that I know the best.
Michigan should be heading into conference play with a 10-2 record, which is a good start since their conference schedule will be one of the toughest in the nation. This year they will play 18 B1G games, only playing Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa once. While you can make this argument most years, this is a pretty difficult slate of games since Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota will most likely finish in the bottom third of the league. We get a break with only playing one of the top teams (Wisconsin) once.
Michigan has one of the best starting backcourts in the league, and it will be very exciting watching them go up against Ohio, MSU, and Ill which also have top notch guard play. If Trey Burke can continue to keep his legs fresh, he will likely finish on the All B1G team for point guard, because currently he is outplaying preseason favorite (Aaron Craft from Ohio). Tim Hardaway will continue to be one of the toughest matchups in the nation, when he wants to be aggressive on the offensive end. He also could make a push during league play to make the All B1G team. Zack Novak has been playing the 2 guard for most of the season so far, and has been incredibly efficient on both ends of the floor. He has doubled his 2 point shooting percentage, and perfected a head fake from the 3 point line - pull up jump shot. When he can stay at the 2 guard for most of the game, Michigan will have a lot of success. We will struggle when he is forced to play the power forward position for any length of time.
While our guards are the bulk of our output in assists, scoring, steals, leadership, etc., Michigan will win and lose games in the paint. Jordan Morgan and Evan Smot will need to find ways to stay on the floor for the majority of the game. Especially now with Horford out with a foot injury. The only real backup then is McLimans who can knock down a few shots and then give up a layup per possession on defense. These guys are the defenders of the hoop, and can alter most easy looks. They are the main source of rebounds, and they ignite the fast break game for the offense. When either get into foul trouble it instantly creates a mismatch on the defensive end of the floor. Morgan continues to shoot at an unbelieveable percentage (77%) and has added a consistent mid range jumper to his arsenal. Smot has become more athletic on offense, and scores at an incredible rate when he is on the floor. You saw it in the Oakland game, he scored over 20 because he didnt struggle with fouls. Michigan's season will again exceed expectations if these guys are on the floor.
Our bench is pretty weak. We have a few shooters and that is about it. Carlton has yet to prove anything to Beilein since he barely gets to play. Stu plays a lot of minutes, but struggles at everything... including shooting some games. Eso plays hard, but is just not athletic enough for the B1G. Vogrich is one of our best shooters when he has his confidence. I do like the energy he brings to the floor, and he will need to provide an energy boost in a big game at some point this season. Horford plays like a 5'6" high school sophomore, and can get shut down by his own lack of hands and basketball IQ. If he can find a way to develop into a solid big guy that can provide 10 minutes of consistent play, it would be a huge improvement. McLimans was summed up earlier. Colton has very little offensive ability, but plays hard when given the chance. If Eso or Carlton can provide quality minutes, this team's depth drastically improves. But I dont think it can.
The starting 5 at Michigan are almost a perfect fit for what Beilein wants to do with his program, but he just doesnt have the depth to be a top 5-10 team. They will be a scary out in the NCAA tourney for most teams, but they will also lose 1 or 2 games this year that should be wins.
I think Michigan will finish with a 9-9 conference record (possibly beating Wisconsin or Ohio once, but losing to NW or at Nebraska). This record in the conference should guarantee a NCAA tourney berth.
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