Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Indiana

IU has been one of the biggest surprises so far in this young season. They are currently 11-0 with a win over then number 1 Kentucky.  Outside of this game they have not played a really difficult schedule, but still being 11-0 for the first time since 1975-76 season is impressive.  They will have a good test in the B1G opener when they have to play at MSU. 

Indiana is trying to get back to its rich traditions in college basketball.  They have had close to a decade of disappointing seasons, and are looking to finally get back to the NCAA tourney this year.  I think they can do it. 

IU is a young team led by freshman Cody Zeller (his brother is a star for UNC).  He is a 6'11" bean pole that has yet to grow into his frame, but is still leading the team in scoring and rebounding.  He is very athletic and has a high basketball IQ.  It will be fun to see him during conference play against Sullinger, Morgan, Payne, Leonard, etc.  He has surprisingly good hands and a decent 10-15 foot jumper.  They have their own version of Jordan Morgan (Christian Watford) except his range extends past dunks to the 3 point line.  He is the player that hit the buzzer beating shot against Kentucky. He is a big body that requires a body on him at all times.  Zeller most benefits from Watfords presence on the floor, since most centers will have to cover Watford leaving the smaller power forward for Zeller. Their point guard is a hometown kid from Bloomington.  He is a sharp shooter when he is able to get his shot off, but is relatively easy to cover.  The problem is that you will forget about him with the other playmakers on the floor.  This is when he is able to impact a game offensively.  IU's second scoring option is sophomore 6'5" guard Victor Oladipo.  He is very athletic and tough to stop.  IU is one of the national leaders in assists per game, so they are likely to be balanced in scoring.  When somebody gets to 20 in their lineup, something went wrong for the other team.  For being so young, and not far removed from B1G basemen dweller, they are very balanced and do not just rely on a one and done freshman. 

Defensively IU will play a man to man.  They are very susceptible to the back cut since they are so young.  IU is not spectalur on the defensive end, but they are a very good rebounding team.  So a team will likely get open shots vs the Hoosiers, but if they are not knocking these shots down IU will not give up many 2nd chance points. Their bench is still limited for another year (top 3 recruiting class next year), so a complicated motion offense like Michigan will likely stretch this IU team. 

How do they match up against us?  This seems to be the same formula for all of my reviews, but again we will struggle defending the post against IU.  Smot, Morgan, and Horford will likely all be in foul trouble in these games.  Michigan has a huge advantage at the point guard position, so if Burke can apply a lot of pressure on defense, it can limit the low post opportunities. Michigan will need to rebound well, since IU likes to shoot the 3.  They are not as good of a shooting team as us, but can still get hot. These long shots will give long rebounds, so Hardaway and Burke will have to be active on the glass. Offensively, Michigan should be able to score close to 70 against Indiana. Zeller will struggle defending the pick and roll, especially if they choose to hedge after screens.  Look for Burke to have 2 high scoring games against the Hoosiers.  Hardaway and Oladipo will likely cancel each other out.  I think Michigan should win at home, and the road test will be interesting.  IU is a tough place to play, and we have to go their January 5th, right after IU plays MSU and Ohio and will likely be 0-2 in the conference.  A young team could respond poorly or be angry and play some of their best basketball.

Prediction: IU has a favorable schedule down the stretch like Michigan did last year, they could get hot and finish with 10 wins in the conference. I dont know if they have the leadership like we did last year, so starting 0-3 in the conference could be a death wish and IU could implode moving forward only winning 6-7 games.

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