Ohio week is upon us, and I know you have been missing some
of the crap talking about the Bucknuts or Suckeyes. Columbus is located in the
center of the underwear state, which is convenient because that is where the
skid marks are found. I could keep going
with the insults, but I have some pre-game analysis that needs to be done
before I head home for the holidays. If
you need some more you can look back at my post from last year that details
some of the things that I like more than Buckeyes.
Brady Hoke is making his first trip to enemy territory as
the Michigan head coach, and I can only imagine how much joy a win this weekend
would bring him and this team. Ohio is
ranked number 4 in the AP poll right now, and still has an outside shot at
being the AP number 1 by mid-January.
Yes, Saturday will be their last game, but they could be the only
unbeaten team by season’s end. This
weekend will also mark Urban Whiner’s first game in the rivalry, and we know
how much fun it is to beat him. This
matchup marks one team that has played a very soft schedule and won each game
they should have (no matter how ugly) against the other that has played one of
the toughest schedules which has resulted in a worse record than the play on
the field would indicate. Michigan could
finish as the best 5 loss team ever in college football (with losses to 3 teams
in the top 5, and the other two to top 10 teams), while Ohio could be one of
the worst undefeated teams in recent memory.
The Game and the Big Ten desperately need a hard fought, well played,
football game on Saturday to bring this rivalry back to national prominence
again.
Ohio Rush Offense vs
Michigan Rush Defense
The Buckeyes are one of the conference’s best running teams
with Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde.
Miller will likely be a Heisman finalist, invited to New York next
month, and Hyde is a type of player that I would guess the fans down south
really appreciate. They have already
installed Meyer’s running spread offensive system that uses a lot of zone read
plays. This also means that Miller will
have 15+ designated runs on the afternoon as well. Hyde is a bruising type of running back, the
kind that the Michigan defense has not had success slowing down so far this
season. He likely will not attack the
edge too much, which will leave their focus on Miller. At this point in Braxton’s career, he is a
running back who can throw. While he
might not be as quick as Denard, he is close to as fast. If the Michigan defense allows him to break
the pocket on a scramble or designed run plays, they might be chasing him for a
while. As a freshman, Miller had a great
performance in The Game, the Wolverines used Desmond Morgan to spy on him all
game and it did not work. Mattison will
likely have to implement a different scheme to slow down this weapon. Hopefully Morgan is back on Saturday because
Michigan will lean heavily on him and Jake Ryan to contain number 5. I don’t think this game will be as much of a
shootout as last year, but the Wolverine defense will likely struggle to keep
Ohio under 170 yards on the ground. Advantage
Ohio.
Ohio Pass Offense vs
Michigan Pass Defense
The passing attack in Columbus is still a work in
progress. Miller’s fundamentals seem to
fall apart when he is pressured which results in a lot of errant throws. Like every year, however, Ohio has a lot of
talent, and their receivers have improved throughout the season. Devin Smith is a deep threat that will be a
tough matchup for Floyd or Taylor. Stonebrunner
has been converted to a receiver this year, and is sure-handed and big
bodied. Braxton seems to have a very
good connection to Smith, and will likely try a few deep balls to him during
the game. If Michigan can get some
pressure in the face of Miller, the Wolverines will likely come away with a
turnover or two and more than a few punts.
The problem with this strategy, though, is Michigan has struggled to get
pressure on any quarterback this season without dialing up blitzes. The Wolverines cannot just sit back and let
Miller gash them for chunks of yards, they will need to apply some
pressure. Mattison is not a coach who
likes to just sit back and watch the spread and shred. I think a few blitzes will get through, but
not enough to completely stifle the Buckeye passing attack (like last week). Advantage Ohio.
Michigan Rush Offense
vs Ohio Defense
The Michigan rushing attack has been struggling this season,
and just when it seemed to be improving Toussaint get seriously injured and
will miss the rest of the season. The Wolverines
will likely mix and match at running back with Denard, Rawls, Smith, and even
possibly Hayes. Add that to the fact that Devin can scramble for 7+ yards a
clip and Michigan should be able to keep the Ohio defense guessing. The offensive line has been a big
disappointment this year in the run blocking category, and that is likely to
change when going up against Hankins, Simon, and company. At this point, a successful day will be how
effective is the running attack. We know
it is very unlikely to rush for 200+ yards on Saturday, but if it allows Borges
to dial up some play action passes it is a successful day. I like using Denard to offset Rawls, and
there are quite a few wrinkles that can be introduced with both Denard and
Devin in the back field. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan Pass Offense
vs Ohio Pass Defense
The Michigan passing attack has taken a huge step forward
the past 3 weeks with Devin under center.
Yes, the defenses were not the best, but anytime you throw for almost
900 yards in 3 games you have to give some credit to the guy doing the
throwing. It just looks like Gardner is very comfortable under center in this
offense, and Borges is confident with number 12 taking the snaps. The offensive plan seems to be closer to what
he was brought here to run. The receivers
are also stepping up big the past few weeks, Roundtree has had his best month
since 2010. Ohio’s big problem in the
non-conference was their lack of pass rush, but now that has turned into quite
the strength. John Simon leads the
league in sacks this season. He is just
a good football player. I have a strange
feeling that Borges will implement some Denard throws this week, either when he
is lined up at quarterback running the zone read or at running back. I got the impression that the coaching staff
unleashed number 16 in the backfield to give Meyer something more to think
about, but there was no threat of Denard passing. I would actually be surprised if he wasn’t asked
to at least attempt a pass or two on Saturday.
There is some big play potential there.
The Buckeye secondary can create turnovers, but in terms of yardage and
completion percentage this unit is one of the worst in the Big Ten. I expect Michigan to have another good game
through the air, but with at least interception. If the interception is in a critical time,
then Michigan might be in trouble, if it only happens as a hail mary at the end
of the first half I will take it. Advantage Michigan.
I am very excited for this football game. I think the Buckeyes are a more complete team
at this point in the season, and them playing at home is a big advantage. We don’t know what to expect from Devin yet
though, if he continues on the path he has been on the past 3 games he will put
himself into Michigan lore by Saturday evening.
I want to hope that the past weeks were more because Gardner is a very
good quarterback, but am worried that it had more to do with the defenses. I don’t think either defense is good enough
to shut down the other, but I expect there to be a few more punts than last
year. The big matchup will be how does Michigan
defend Braxton Miller, because if he has a game like he did last week I have no
doubts that Michigan will win this game.
I just don’t think the Wolverine defense can do that on a consistent
basis. I am also excited to see how Ohio
tries to defend Michigan’s different offensive looks. This game will likely come down to the
turnover margin and the running game.
Ohio will likely finish with more rush yards, but will Michigan be able
to move the ball effectively on the ground.
I think the combination of Denard and Devin is better than Miller, and
while both make mistakes Braxton’s will be more costly. Michigan 27 Ohio 24.
No comments:
Post a Comment