This review will have to be quick since the game is almost here, so lets jump in.
Michigan State started out the year with two of the toughest games any team has played in quite a while. They played hard, but in the end they lost to better teams. Then their 15 game winning streak just ended at Northwestern where they gave up 85 points to an average offense.
Michigan State has been the most efficient offense in the B1G, which is a great improvement from last year when they finished 11 (when we still had 11 teams). Derrick Nix has found his role on this basketball team, and has become one of the most dominant players off of anyone’s bench. He will come in and play extremely hard for 3-4 game minutes, usually collects a few rebounds and scores 4-6 points, then takes a seat to rest up for the next spurt. There are not many people who can defend him well, and that will continue tonight. Michigan will need to double down on him to make him dribble. This is his main offensive weakness. He takes too long to make decisions, and then when he is forced to put the ball on the floor it generally results in the turnover. Morgan has to stay on the floor because he is only one that has any chance of bodying Nix up. If Jordan can keep him off the blocks, it will be a successful night. Appling and Green are also scoring the ball better than they did a year ago. Green is playing like he is the main competition for Jared Sullinger for B1G player of the year. Other than these 3 guys, MSU has a bunch of role players. Many are very athletic or young and will develop into more, but right now if another player gets 10+ points they are having a great night and Sparty will likely win the ball game. Michigan has to defend the 3 point line tonight from Trice, Appling, Thornton, and Wood. If they cannot do that, MSU might have a shooting night like IU had against us. MSU is a very solid rebounding team, like usual, so the winner of tonight’s game will likely be the winner of the glass as well. This falls upon Morgan to use strength when grabbing the ball, Smot to get in good position against either the freshman Dawson or the veteran (and MSU rebounding leader) Green. The guards will have to play a big role in rebounding tonight as well. If Hardaway and Novak can be aggressive and not lose containment, Michigan has a shot to win the rebounding battle.
Defensively Michigan State has just flat out been struggling this season. Their highly regarded freshman, Dawson, looks out of place and useless on the defensive end for most of the B1G season. Offensively he is one of the most talented freshman in the nation, but he is such a defensive liability that his minutes have been cut drastically. Shurna beat Dawson on back cuts time and time again. Depending on who he has to defend, Michigan will have to exploit that mismatch tonight. Hopefully Izzo tries to put him on Hardaway, but likely it will be Smot. Green is a very physical defender, and if he is left for Hardaway it could take him out of his game and force him to shoot perimeter shots (not like THJ needs any encouragement in that area). Hardaway will need to continue to be aggressive and go towards the hoop on offensive possessions. His shooting struggles have morphed into more than just a slump. Appling is usually on the opponent’s best offensive player, but I think Izzo will keep him on Burke tonight. Izzo will stress to his team that they cannot let Burke beat the Spartans. He will want Appling to take him away as much as possible. Burke will need to control the ball and the tempo in this game. He cannot let Appling control this game. Burke will need to focus on distributing the ball tonight, and hopefully his teammates can step up and shoot better than 25% for the game. if shots aren’t falling for the supporting cast, it will be a long night for Michigan because Burke cannot beat MSU by himself.
Michigan should be able to exploit MSU on back cuts, but look for MSU to switch into a seldom used zone since Michigan looked so bad against it at Iowa. I want to think the Wolverines get out of their slump tonight and score the ball more efficiently, but they have struggled so much against other B1G defenses so far that I don’t think that is a reasonable expectation. I hate to do this, but even though this is a very must win situation for Michigan, I think MSU will come out with the win because they will be able to score more effectively than Michigan in the end of the game. MSU 68 Michigan 65. I hope I am wrong.
Go Blue
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