The preview that I have been most excited to write up this week is finally here! The Lions are in the playoffs for the first time in what seems like forever. Even though they have a very tough matchup tomorrow night, it is still exciting to be playing this 17th game.
The main question for tomorrow night is will Drew Brees throw for 1,000 yards, or will our secondary show up a little more than last week? Let’s face it, if the Lions are going to win tomorrow night the score will not be 6-3. Drew Brees will put up yards and throw touchdowns. The question here is how many? I read somewhere that the Lions will win if they can hold Brees to 300 passing yards. 300 seems like a lot, but in reality Matt Flynn passed the 300 yard mark on their first drive in the 2nd half. I personally feel like it is impossible to keep Drew Brees to only 300 yards. I won’t mind if he throws for 900 yards tomorrow night. The most important stat of his is the touchdowns. We cannot give up more than 3 passing touchdowns tomorrow night, and the Lions need to find some way to get Cool Brees-y to throw an interception.
I am not sure if the Lions can contain Brees at all, but I do know that if the front 4 do not get pressure on the QB tomorrow night it will be a very long game. It is supposed to be the strength of our defense, but so far this year has been a disappointment compared to what the 6-10 team from last year accomplished. The problem with trying to game plan for the Saints, is the game will be winnable if the front 4 can get to Brees. They don’t need 10 sacks or anything like that, but Brees has to be hit or at least pressured. If the lineman cannot achieve this, then the Lions will have to force the issue with some linebacker or corner blitzes. This is why the Saints are so good. When a defense brings extra people in on a blitz, Brees throws it exactly where the blitz comes from. If we send an extra LB, look for Brees to pick us apart with Jimmy Graham (only one of the best TE’s in the NFL) or one from their stable of RB’s. if a corner blitz is drawn up, look for a quick slant to the same side of the field. Suh was suspended for the first time these two teams played earlier this year, and even if he was playing he has not lived up to his own expectations. For some reason I think the Dline will have a very big game tomorrow night. Whether Suh finally steps up and gets a sack or two, or forces a TO, or it comes from one of the other guys. The interior of the Saints line is pretty questionable, so Suh, Williams or Fairley should have a huge game.
The scariest part of the Saints attack is actually not Drew Brees throwing the ball. It is how effective they can be in the running game. The Lions are pretty bad at stopping the run so far this season, and the Saints are the number 6 rushing team in the NFL. If the Saints run wild tomorrow night, Drew Brees will have a hay day with the play action pass. If they get to 130 rushing yards for the game, the Lions will likely get beat by 2+ TDs, unless the Lions find a way to get a lot of turnovers. It will be important to win the 1st and 2nd down battles, and force the Saints into 3rd and long. Then the Lions can bring an extra blitzer from somewhere and hopefully get the punting unit on the field.
Delmas is finally playing tomorrow night which has potential to be very important. The defense has definitely missed him late in the year. He is one of the leaders on this side of the ball, and is also the best tackler in the secondary. I think Delmas will make at least one big play to impact the outcome of the game.
Offensively, the Lions should look good. The game is inside a dome, where every offense looks better and faster. I expect Stafford to have another big game, and continue his NFL best 4 game streak. The Lions will need to find some success in the “running” game tomorrow. Whether that means Kevin Smith steps up, or if screen passes and sweeps get some yards. Since the focus of every defense is Calvin Johnson, I think the surrounding cast will have a big game. If Stafford has time in the pocket, he should be able to find the open receiver. The issue here though will be how well can the Oline hold up against New Orleans many different blitzes, and can the Lions limit drive killing penalties (holding and personal fouls). The first time in the SuperDome, the Lions had 11 penalties for 107 yards. They will need cut both of those numbers in half at least to be able to stay in this game.
I actually think this playoff game will be one of the more exciting of the weekend. It will be the first time that two 5,000+ yard passers play against each other in the playoffs. The whole nation is not giving the Lions much of a chance, but I think there is some incredible fight in these guys. It will likely come down to the turnover and penalty battle. If the Lions are penalized a lot tomorrow, they will need to be at least +2 in the turnover battle. Protecting the ball will be huge for Stafford and the offense, because their chance of winning with each turnover the Saints force drastically reduces. Look for the Calvin to Stafford hook up to have one big play touchdown in the game, but the Brees to Graham connection will be almost impossible for the Lions to stop. I don’t know what it is right now, but I just have a feeling the Lions win this game tomorrow night 35-31 on a late TD drive by Stafford.
Geux Lions!!!
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