Tonight’s game will be a very good indicator of how much we can expect in conference play from our Wolverines. Indiana is ranked one spot ahead of us (#12), but is coming off beating the number 2 team in the country at home over the weekend. IU also beat Kentucky, at home, earlier this season when they were ranked number 1. Tonight will be our first road game in B1G play, and also really our 1st road game since the Virginia debacle. Will that game prove to be from a Maui hangover, or was it an indicator that this team will not handle road tests well?
Assembly Hall might be the loudest and toughest places to play in the B1G. Even as IU has been down the past few years, Michigan has struggled mightily in the Hoosier arena. Last year they looked terrible and got pummeled, and 3 years ago they were losing by 20 only to come back and win in OT. This being one of Michigan’s nightmares is an understatement. Yet, I am still encouraged for tonight’s game.
Indiana might be unbeatable so far at home this season, but they looked pretty average at the Breslin Center for their conference opener. The game was full of streaks, and Zeller looked completely overmatched by the physical play of the Spartans. This leads me to think that IU is a good team, but number 12 in the nation might be a bit of a stretch.
Can Michigan play physical enough to neutralize Zeller? I doubt that they will be as effective as MSU was, but I think Morgan can push him around some. The refs will definitely play a crucial role tonight though, because if they let the game get a little physical it has to favor Michigan. If the refs call every touch foul, then Zeller will be primed to have a huge game tonight. How will Michigan stop Christian Watford, Indiana seems to go as he does. When he scores 18+ they are a completely different team. Will we put Smot on Zeller and Morgan on Watford. I think we will need to switch at times tonight because Zeller’s offensive abilities are refined very well for a freshman which will likely result in foul trouble for Smot.
Michigan has a huge advantage at the point guard position. Trey Burke is a lot better of a basketball player than Jordan Hulls. Yes, Hulls can shoot the ball extremely well, but other than that he does not provide much offensive threat. It will be important for Burke to exploit this mismatch like he did against Minnesota. If Burke can be +12 points over Hulls Michigan has a good chance of being in the game at the end.
Hardaway will be covered by a very athletic Oladipo, but Hardaway’s offensive abilities are too good to be shut down to 7 points again. I think Hardaway will come out aggressively tonight and look for scoring opportunities early. Novak will likely struggle defensively, but he is very smart and crafty on offense and will likely be able to score 8 or so.
Michigan will struggle down low tonight, I don’t think we have enough depth or athleticism to keep Watford and Zeller out of double digits. What is more important in this game is just keeping Morgan and Smot on the floor, because they give us the best chance to score the ball. It will be an in-game victory if we can keep their combined points below 40.
One of Michigan’s big advantages tonight will be the tempo battle. IU would like this game to be in the 70s, but Michigan cannot get rattled and start running with the Hoosiers. When they can slow the game down a bit, it forces IU to play half court defense where they really struggled against MSU. Also, IU’s offense is more transitioned based, and they can struggle at times in the half court set. Especially when Watford or Zeller are not on the floor. If we can minimize the transition opportunities, we have a better chance of pulling off this mini-upset.
I think Michigan will come out tonight and show that they are a legitimate top 5 B1G team, but the only problem is that so is Indiana. I think Michigan’s defense will be able to hold IU under 70, but I am not sure if we will get enough scoring from our role players to get the win. IU 68- Michigan 63.
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