Tonight provides the Michigan Basketball team another shot at getting their first road win. They go to Mackey Arena to face Purdue. This is not the same Purdue team that was a Final Four favorite the past few years, but it doesn't mean that they are any easier to beat on their floor.
Offensively, Purdue runs a similar set that we do. They like to run the high ball screen for Jackson to create shots for his teammates. Usually he is not a huge threat to score much himself, but he is the key to setting up his teammates for open looks. It will be very interesting to see how Burke matches up against the 5'8" quick point guard. Burke has done a nice job on the two great point guards he has faced this year already (Taylor and Appling), so I would expect him to perform well again. Purdue does not have a post presence outside of Hummel. Even he uses an outside in approach, and is more like a small forward than a traditional low post guy. The only other guy that can really hurt us tonight is Ryne Smith, one of the best shooters in the entire league. He is a spot shooter that cannot get lost when Jackson drives. He is averaging 6 3 point attempts per game, and is making near 50% of them. He cannot get to double digit points tonight.
Defensively, Purdue is a very good pressure man to man team. Jackson will be one of the quickest players Burke has to play against this year, so protecting the ball will be huge. They will force the Michigan guards away from the basket, hedge out on screens and be very susceptible to the hard center roll to the front of the hoop. Burke has struggled to see the open big off of these pick and roll plays lately, so it will be impotant for him to convert the open looks tonight. Purdue is a very average rebounding team. Since they are so short, Michigan should be able to collect some important offensive boards tonight.
I think Burke will have his biggest struggle tonight against Jackson offensively, so it will be important for him not to force the issue if he is being locked down. Morgan will need to dominate the post tonight, since Purdue lacks skill in the center position. He will need to be ready for the pass when he rolls from the high screen. Novak will likely be matched up with Hummel, so scoring from him will be limited. Someone will have to step up tonight. I naturally look for that to be Hardaway, but I am getting sick of saying the same thing in these previews. Hardaway has to step up and score close to 20 points for Michigan to win. I think Smot can play some critical minutes tonight when Morgan needs some rest. Our bigs will need to combine to outscore Hummel. Even though Hummel went 0-11 against MSU, he always plays well against us. I look for him to recover. Along with Hardaway and Morgan, will Vogrich or Douglass step up and hit some big shots for Michigan? I think we are flat out the better basketball team, but Purdue is a very tough place to play. I think Michigan wins 68 - 62 in a game that shouldnt be within 10 points.
Go Blue
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