The answer is a very strong YES, but its my blog and I can do what I want...
While signing day hasn't come yet, and players are still deciding whether to stay in school or go pro, I figured I would take a look at the 2012 Michigan football schedule and see how it shapes up. I have seen a lot of other comments and articles about this very thing. One place picked us 12-1 and in the national championship game against LSU. I have heard Todd McShay say that we will be lucky to win 8 games. I have read an article that Michigan will have the biggest drop off to next year of any B1G and BCS team. I have also heard that Michigan will be the favorite to win the B1G next season. So what do I think?
I am glad you asked.... I am gonna go through next season game by game and make some predictions/ hopes.
As everyone knows, we open the season in Dallas vs Alabama. I have a feeling that Bama will find a way to beat LSU in the National Championship game, so therefore we will get to play the defending national champions. The Tide have a lot of great juniors and seniors on the team, and only on has decided on his future (future top 10 pick OL returning for senior year). I expect Trent Richardson to leave school, since he will be one of the top RB draft picks. I also expect at least 2 of their 3 LBs to enter he draft. Their TE and best WR are seniors. They also have a few upper classmen in their secondary. So, this boils down to the best defense is losing a lot of talent. That is a good thing for us, but they are football factory right now and will likely replace them with other future first round draft picks. If Denard doesn't improve over the off-season in the Borges offense, there really is no chance of a Michigan win. We return a lot on both sides of the ball, but breaking in a new DL against Bama's amazing OL will be rough. If Richardson doesn't enter the draft, this game could be loooong as well. As of right now, I think I have to put this game in the loss column. If we are going to be a top 15 team again, this game will be a lot closer than expected.
Next up is Air Force, David Brandon is pretty crazy making this schedule. Not only did the B1G screw us over by putting Nebraska and Ohio at home the same year ND is, now we actually play real teams in the non conference. Air Force will be really tough, and their might be a let down from the opener. Michigan should still win this game.
UMass: I don't know why we thought we needed to reschedule these guys after barely beating them in 2010, but oh well. I dont expect this one to be as close the 2nd time around.
@ ND: Who knows how good ND will be. Their QB's keep transfering, they lose their best WR, and their coach is a moron. But they have a very good recruiting class coming in like usual, and next year should be the first year that Kelly gets to use a dual threat QB like he wants. Playing at ND will be a very tough game, especially since Kelly wants his first win vs Michigan. This one is a push right now.
@ Purdue: They improved throughout the season this year, but I mean come on... its Purdue. We better win.
ILL: New coach, new system, lots of players leaving for the draft. ILL should barely be a bowl team again. Win
MSU: It is looking like the B1G championship will be decided in this game next year. Jerell Worthy has decided to go to the NFL draft, but that still leaves 8 returning starters on a scary good defense. Dantonio somehow has our number, and he knows how to defend Denard. Not only does he know how to, he has the talent to actually make it happen. There are rumors that their DC Pat Narduzzi took the same job at Texas A&M, so it will be interesting to see how that defense performs under a new coach. The Spartan offense will be completely different next year, and most likely they will not be able to throw the ball nearly as well as this year. They will be relying on all new receivers, a new QB, and 1 new lineman. There is also talk of Edwin Baker leaving early. This coud be a defense-fest between two highly ranked teams come end of October. I dont know why, but I have a feeling that Hoke gets his first win against State next year somehow. On paper, this matchup does not look good for us, but a lot can happen between now and then. And I just cant see 5 years in a row. Win
@Nebraska: This will be a very tough game as well. It will be our first trip to Lincoln, a place the Huskers always play well at. They are losing a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but return most offensive starters. I think this will be a very good game. But Nebraska will have revenge on their minds this time around. If we are a top 15 team again, we will find a way to win this game. As of now, I am not convinced, so push.
@ Minnesota... Win. The only competition here should be can we out score 2011 58 points.
Northwestern: NW without Persa equals a wildcat without claws. Win
Iowa: This was the most disappointing loss for us last year, since the Hawkeyes really weren't that good. They lose a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, and I am not sure they can replace it next year. It might be a down year for Iowa again. Win
@ Ohio: Since they are banned from all post-season play, this will be their Super Bowl next season. Can Hoke start a win streak of his own against the Bucknuts? It will be a very tough game. I expect Braxton Miller to push Denard for offensive player of the year. At this point I cant even imagine what beating these clowns twice in a row would feel like, since I still feel in a dream after this year's win. So I will just go with a loss.
The way I will do the push is between those 2 games, Michigan will split next year. So that leaves us with a 9-3 regular season, but only 1 loss in our own division. Since I think MSU will end up with 2 losses as well, likely both in the conference, it will come down to a tie breaker which I think we will own. This will put us into the B1G championship game against who knows. Since Ohio is inelgible, PSU should be in shambles, Wisconsin losing their offensive genius and their QB/ RB combo. I think Wisconsin will find a way to back into the game (like UCLA did this year) with a 8-4 or so record. If we make the B1G championship I think we can win it. So I think it is very possible to finish with a 10-3 record, and with that the 43rd B1G title and another Rose Bowl bid. MSU will likely be in our spot next year, and could be available for their first BCS game as an at large team.
A lot will happen between now and Labor Day,but I expect Michigan to play hard in every game and continue to improve throughout the year again. I think there is a very small chance of going undefeated next year with the extremely tough schedule we have to play, but also I think there is almost no chance that we will regress so much in record that we do not make a bowl game. As of today, I think a real January 1st bowl game should be expected (Outback, Capital One, or Rose), and with Ohio ineligble, one of these bowls will be possible with 4 losses or fewer.
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