The Michigan basketball team will be looking for its first true road win of the season. Winning games on the road in conference play is always tough, especially for a young team that has lost its first two games away from home. Kind of crazy that they are 14-3 on the season, and they only have played 2 true road games. Yes they played in Maui and got 2 wins there. Yes they played in Auburn Hills at the Palace, but it was not Oakland’s home floor. Iowa is a very scrappy team that has pulled off a few good games in the conference already. They only lost to Purdue by 3 at home, then went on the road and won two surprising games. They beat Wisconsin in the Kohl Center and then followed it up at Minnesota, both are two of the toughest arenas in the league. Recently they have hit a rough patch, losing to OSU and MSU by a combined 73 points!
This is a team Michigan should not struggle with too badly, but either was Northwestern. Iowa is one of the 3 worst teams in the B1G this year, so tomorrow is as close to a must-win game as there can be in mid-January. Iowa runs a very perimeter heavy offense. There 3 leading scorers are guards. They do have a very good sophomore post player in Basabe, but he is having a down year so far. The Hawkeyes get most of their production from 4 of their starters (average about 45 points from the 4). Iowa’s style of play would be very tough to stop once they get more athletic. They would like to play at a high tempo, force turnovers and get transition buckets. This style backfires miserably when you aren’t very talented. That is pretty much what has happened the past two games. Ohio St and MSU have a lot of big bodies to throw into the game, but michigan’s depth down low is very slim right now with Horford still out. They were able to control the rebounding game. Iowa is not a great shooting team, so they rely on 3 guys crashing the offensive glass on most shots. When you put a body on them, their offensive ability is greatly reduced.
Defensively like I said above, they would like to run a high pressure defense to force turnovers and create easy opportunities for their offense. They will switch between a matchup zone and man to man. They will even occasionally throw in a corner trap scheme. Since they are lacking in the overall athletic department, they will be found out of position a lot trying to get some steals. The only problem here is that they are too slow to recover in time, and they allow easy shots too many times. Michigan needs to attack them from the inside out. Even though we have little depth down low, Morgan and Smot are better than whoever Iowa can put on the floor. In the last two close games (IU and NW) michigan found themselves in some big holes at times during the game (18 points at IU and 10 at home vs NW). the only reason the Wolverines were able to chip into the lead and eventually tie the game up is from attacking the hoop by using all of their offensive pieces. Specifically when Morgan is not involved in the offense at all (setting a screen, posting up, rebounding) our offense tends to stall out. He doesn’t need to shoot every possession, but he needs to be involved. When he is not, he tends to lose his focus and begins to drop easy passes or miss open shots. Michigan needs to come out and get Jordan involved immediately. The long shot will be there all day vs the Hawkeyes, but even when they are open Michigan seems to not put the ball through the hoop.
Look for Beilein to stress working the ball inside, either off the dribble from Burke, back cuts by Tim and Novak, or by the screen and roll to set up Morgan on the block against a guard. When our players are able to knock down a few easier shots early, the 3 pointer will start falling later. I would be surprised if Coach B allows Michigan to jack up over 25 threes again, honestly this team should not put up 20 in a game.. they are just too good to do that to themselves. Unless they have an IU-type game (18-24 against PSU). I will go with my prediction from the last game, I expect one of our post players to break through with another big game. they both need the confidence going into the game vs Sparty. Like usual Hardaway will get an uneventful 20-25, Burke will likely put up a ton of shots and get to 17.
If Michigan comes out flat and allows Iowa to get into a shooting rhythm, look for this game to be high scoring and a lot closer than needed. I have a hard time thinking that the coaching staff and seniors will allow that to happen for two games in a row. They need this win badly to stay in the conference race. I think we break out offensively tomorrow in Iowa City, Michigan 78 Iowa 65. If Michigan can put both facets of the game together, they can continue Iowa’s streak of losing by 29+ points. I think Michigan will play a little weak on the defensive end, at least to start the game, therefore the closer than should be final.
Go Blue!
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