Michigan basketball takes the court again tonight in their first true road test of the season against an improving 5-1 Virginia. We will get to see how this team looks after 3 games in 3 days in Hawaii, and if they are fully rested now. Also, it will be a good road test for this young team. We will need to win games like this to avoid being on the bubble at the end of the season.
While Virginia is 5-1 so far this season, they have not played a team as talented as Michigan yet. Their lone loss came to an average at best TCU team. Tonight's game will be Virginia's toughest non-conference test, and will be a major inidicator if they get into the NCAA tournament come March.
The Cavaliers are led by 6'9" power forward Mike Scott, he is averaging about 15 points and 10 rebounds a game. He will be a very tough matchup for our frontcourt players, and I expect all 3 regulars in our rotation to have some foul problems while trying to guard Scott. They have a 6'6" sophomore guard in Joe Harris who is a very streaker shooter. When he is making shots, this team can be very tough to defend and stop. Their point guard is 5'11" Jontel Evans. He is not a top tier point guard like Michigan saw in Austin Rivers or Joe Jackson, but he is a more than capable distributor who can get to double digits in points on occassion. Also, Virginia is more concerned about not giving up fast break points, that we should control defensive rebounds. Virginia will almost never crash the hoop to get an offensive board. Look for someone to have close to 10 rebounds by the end of the game. Honestly, Virginia is not extremely overwhelming offensively like teams we have already played this year, but where they win games is on the defensive end of the court.
The Cavalier coach, Tony Bennett, is still relatively new to Charlotte after turning around Washington St. Most people compare his styles to our very own John Beilein. While Virginia will not run a 1-3-1 zone tonight, they will always run a man-zone defense. It might be one of the most complicated and difficult defenses in the nation to gameplan against. Virginia's defense is rated number 9 in the nation currently, and they have held 2 opponents already below 40 points. They will play aggressive man defense on the ball, and the other 4 players will sag 2-5 steps away from their guy. This allows them to pack in the middle of the key, which will limit the amount of backscreens and dribble penetration Michigan will be allowed to do. The big men will front our frontcourt to deny any low post passes, and they will almost never allow someone to get around them on the baseline. It will be a very tough test for us to get to 65-70 points. It will be important to take care of the ball and value every possession. Also, early 3 point shots might appear open for our shooters, but the defender will quickly close the gap. Virginia wants us to launch some quick threes against them, but we cannot fall into this trap. We need to try to run our offense, try to attack with back cuts/ screens to open up good 3 point looks.
Key matchup: There are really two big matchups in tonight's game. The first is Jordam Morgan vs Mike Scott. Morgan had a great Mauii tournament, and he needs to continue that success tonight. Mostly on the defensive end of the floor. If Virginia struggles to get Scott going offensively it could be a long game for the Cavaliers. He is their first and second option. It will be important for Smot and Morgan to stay out of foul trouble and stay on the floor. They need to limit stupid/lazy fouls (Smot), and continually work to keep Scott out of the paint. If our frontcourt continues to struggle with fouls, this game will be a lot closer than it really should be. Also, Morgan needs to make Scott play defense, which will hopefully wear him down so he either commits some bad fouls, affects his offense, or even if he has to sit on the bench. The other key matchup for Big Blue to walk away with the win will be Hardaway vs Harris. Harris is a shooter, and we cannot let him get into a rhythm. Hardaway will have to limit his open looks, while also being more aggressive in the first half offensively. Look for Hardaway to score close to 20 again, but if he gives up 13-18 points to Harris it will not be a success for Tim.
Prediction: Virginia will play us more like a B1G team than anyone has this year, this will be a good road test for this Michigan team. While this win is not as necessary as if they went 1-2 in Hawaii, it is one that will look good at the end of the year and could mean us getting a 5 seed instead of a 6. The key number tonight is 70. If we score 70 we should win the game. If we somehow give up 70 to a below average offense, it will be a long night and we most likely will not come home 6-1. I think our team is playing very well together right now, and they seem focused on something more than just getting into the tourney. I expect us to come out with high intensity and to eventually win this game tonight. 68-59 Michigan.
Go Blue!
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