Monday, November 28, 2011

BCS = slight panic attack

Many of you received texts from me in panic mode about a potential two loss Michigan team not getting a chance to play in a BCS game because of some crazy rules and rankings.  I was also shocked that we dropped to number 16 in the polls.

As I looked at last weeks rankings more, I realized that us dropping to 16 was to be expected... since people enjoyed the Wisconsin beat down of then 19 ranked Penn St. That win gives them more of a boost than our win vs Ohio.  Actually I think the Penn St game was looked at by the BCS as their best win of the year.

It still sucks going into this last weekend needing teams in front of us to lose for us to have a chance at the top 14. If we do not make the top 14, the choices for BCS games gets pretty thin.  Assuming every higher rated team wins this next week (except Sparty because I cannot imagine a world where Sparty green fills half of the Rose Bowl) and we are still number 15.  This leaves Bama, Stanford, Boise St and Kansas St as realistic at large possibilities.  If we are number 15, a 3 loss Oklahoma and MSU would still be ahead of us... and who would want them in a marquee game?  Bama is a lock for the championship game, Stanford should be going to the Fiesta, and the last open slot in the Sugar bowl is left for either Boise or Kansas St... whew they are real attractive for ratings.  A Houston v Boise BCS game. While appealing to some, winning this game does not prove anything about that team.  People want/ need to see a non-AQ team play against a big named school. That leaves Kansas St with their nursing home resident head coach. Honestly, I think most people would rather see Boise play Houston than Kansas St. 

After calming down some, and looking at the numbers and likely scenarios.  LSU should roll over Georgia  to win the SEC.  Oregon might score 100 vs a terrible UCLA team in the Pac12 final.  Ok St should beat Oklahoma, and with them having this past weekend off.  This game will be their first since their only loss of the year, and they will need this win to be the most impressive win of their season.  If able, look for Ok St to keep passing even late in th game to make the final as lopsided as possible.  It is their only hope of making the championship game. VaTech plays a completely different Clemson team than the one they lost to earlier in the season.  I would be surprised if it is even close the second time around.  Houston plays Souther Miss, and they should hold serve for a 13-0 season.  Boise plays UNLV which shouldnt even be close.  Kansas St plays Iowa St who just got smoked by Oklahoma.  This game could be interesting, and if Kansas St loses, it guarantees us a BCS game... but at this point it looks unlikely.  Then there is the B1G final.  I predicted Wisconsin to rip apart Sparty the first time they played, and it was going well for the first few drives,then Bielema tried to outcoach himself again (he might be the worst big game coach... just look at how they played against TCU). I dont see it happening again. Wisconsin is the better team period. If they both play their best game, MSU shouldnt be within 14 points of the Badgers. I think Bielema will want revenge, and he still wants Monte Ball to catch Barry's old touchdown record of 39.  Look for the Badgers to run up the score this time around and win by 20+. If this does happen, then a blowout loss for either of the B1G teams should be enough to drop them below our Fighting Hoke's.

The BCS game predictions look the same as last weekend, with us playing Houston January 3rd in the Sugar Bowl.  Oregon v Wisconsin in the greatest bowl ever.  Bama v LSU 2.0.  Ok. St v Stanford in the guacamole bowl.  and the battle of the worst conferences Va Tech v WVU in the Orange.  If these are the matchups 4 of the bowls look to be really exciting, with 1 unwatchable game.  Which should be good for the fans if they do pair up the ACC vs the Big LEast, instead of them playing 2 teams that win by 100 points combined. Should be exciting!

1 comment:

  1. I'm not sold that we have a legit chance to make a BCS game. I wish we had just beaten IOWA and we wouldn't be having this conversation. Although, I do agree with Hoke that we deserve it.

    I really want to see OkSt play LSU in the Championship game but the only chance of that is if VaTech loses to Clemson, and that may move Clemson too close for comfort, so I will deal with "Bama v LSU 2.0".

    Also since the computers love the Big12 I'll be rooting for them to lose the most. I will be pulling most for a ISU to win at all costs, OkSt to blow out Ok, and Texas barely win in the ugliest fashion possible.

    I don't feel as strongly about WIS. I think MSU will pull it out, which is better for us anyway. I will be watching the game but not rooting for either team. This season, for no good reason, has began to build a huge wedge between me and other B1G teams.

    I'm also excited for this weekends games! It'll feel a lot like fantasy football with me rooting for teams for my own gain!

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