It seemed like Michigan took the bye week and improved as a team. The Wolverines made a few changes on offense, and seemed to use the Minnesota defense as a full contact practice. I know the Gophers aren’t the best team in the conference, but I still think it is impressive when you can use a conference game to work on a new offensive strategy. Last week might not have been the prettiest win that fans were looking for, but it was still another W. This week Michigan faces a wounded animal that might be backed into a corner. The Nittany Lions are coming off of their first loss ever to Indiana, a game that they were dominated, and return home to a season defining game. This will be the biggest game in Beaver Stadium this year, and a win against the Wolverines could hold off a sanction-led downward spiral.
Penn State Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The Nittany Lions run a pro-style offense similar to the New England Patriots. They like to use 3 receivers and a split out tight end, and a lot of times will use the short passing game as a running attack. However, they do have a lead running back, Zach Zwinak, who is more of a fullback type like Mark Weisman. Even though the PSU offensive line can struggle in run blocking, Zwinak is big enough to fall forward. He will never be mistaken for DeAnthony Thomas. Michigan’s defense is disciplined and strong enough to stop this style of running back. The only reason to be cautious here is that the Penn State passing spread is similar to Notre Dame’s, and their running backs were able to be effective yet underused against the Wolverines. Advantage Michigan.
Penn State Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
Adam Hackenberg is already one of the best pocket passing quarterbacks in the conference. Yes, he is a true freshman, and is still very mistake prone, but he can really throw the ball. It also helps that he has one of the best receivers in the country on the other end. This is similar to Chad Henne’s freshman year when he had Braylon Edwards on the outside. Whenever Hackenberg is pressured he will force throws to Allen Robinson. Robinson is so good that he comes down with some of these haphazard throws. The key for a defense is to be able to make plays on the ones that he isn’t able to snag. The offensive line has been prone to giving up sacks, so expect Greg Mattison to dial up more pressure than he did last week. I doubt Michigan will sit back in the soft zone all game like against Notre Dame, especially if Jake Ryan plays a few snaps. It seems like Allen Robinson is a lock to get 150 yards, but the goal should be to keep him under 200 and potentially force some turnovers when Hackenberg throws an ill-advised pass his direction. I am very interested to see Blake Countess match up against Robinson. Advantage Penn State.
Michigan Rush Offense vs Penn State Rush Defense
Michigan rolled out a new offensive line formation against Minnesota where Taylor Lewan becomes the best blocking tight end that college football has ever seen. This formation was effective against the under-sized Gopher front 7. Al Borges will look to deploy this unbalanced line against an even more undersized unit. It is unlikely that this strategy will work against future opponents, but they can cross the bridge in a few weeks. I think Derrick Green and Fitz Toussaint will get a lot of opportunities to run early in this game. Michigan will look for the run to open up passing lanes for their shiny toy that is prone to self-inflicted injury. I doubt this game will be one where the Wolverines have impressive yards per carry, but they will likely run the ball over 30 times with running backs alone. If Penn State sells out to stop this rushing attack, look for Devin to be unleashed on the ground more than last week as well. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan Pass Offense vs Penn State Pass Defense
This area is still an unknown. If Devin Gardner returns to Notre Dame form this game could be over by halftime. The problem is that he has struggled on the road in his short career, and looks to be rebuilding a visibly shaken confidence. Penn State isn’t a huge blitzing team, but look for the Nittany Lions to dial up pressure from different levels to try to force Gardner into quick decisions where his mechanics break down. If the new offensive line can hold up against this pressure, Devin should have no problems dissecting a Penn State secondary that is in shambles. Jeremy Gallon and Devin Funchess are the two best receivers that the Nittany Lions have faced this season. This section would be a lot easier knowing how many turnovers Michigan will finish with. Just based on the throwing talent of Gardner and the receiving talent of Gallon, Funchess, Dileo, Chesson, and company this is a huge advantage in Michigan’s favor. However, the offensive line struggled in some pass protection formations against Minnesota, and Gardner has shown that he can turn the ball over in more creative ways than his predecessor. Advantage Michigan (crossing my fingers)
Vegas has this line at 2.5 points in Michigan’s favor. They must know something that I don’t because that seems like an easy bet for the Wolverines. If Michigan is -1 or better in the turnover department this game shouldn’t be within single digits. At this point in the season my expectations have lessened since the Notre Dame outcome, but I still think this team has potential to compete for a Legends Division title. If Gardner can build from his first zero turnover performance last week, Michigan will win this game. I am just going to choose to believe that he cannot perform anywhere close to as poorly as he did against UConn. He is just too talented to continue turning the ball over with that much regularity. Michigan 31 Penn State 20.
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