My how far Coach Beilein has brought this program in just a
few short years. The football team only
has one loss and still controls their destiny for a Rose Bowl appearance, but
in my book today officially marks the start of the basketball season. The cagers open their season with an
exhibition game against Concordia tonight.
This season has the most hype and expectations since the Fab Five’s sophomore
season, but with this coaching staff at the helm I can guarantee that it will
be another fun ride.
Last year in my basketball preview I wrote: “So far this
season one thing is very clear to me, this is the deepest team that Coach
Beilein has had in Ann Arbor (possibly ever) and this is the most athletic team
that I can truly remember donning the maize and blue.” This statement makes
sense when referring to the national runner-up.
But it is also a statement that can be made for Team 97. Yes, Michigan
lost 5 seniors and two first round draft picks including the National Player of
the Year. Most programs would need at least one year to reload and recover from
that loss of experience and talent, but the Michigan program this year is not
one of them. 3 top ranked freshmen enter
the fold along with the 6 returning old men sophomores and the upperclassmen front
court.
Let’s preview each position group (bigs, wings, and point
guards). The Wolverines do not lose a
scholarship player from the front court, and return pre-season All American
Mitch McGary, All-B1G defensive center Jordan Morgan, bulked up Jon Horford,
under-the-radar Max Biefeldt, and add in prototypical stretch 4 Mark Donnal. Just
a few short years ago most people thought Coach Beilein could not recruit big
men that would allow Michigan to compete for B1G championships, and now they
have 5 that will push for minutes. Of
course the headliner is McGary, who blew up last year in the NCAA tournament
run and turned down a likely top 10 draft pick to play for Team one last year
and compete for championships with teammates and friends. When healthy, big
number 4 is the most versatile big man in the conference. He can dominate in
any phase of the game (scoring for the low or high post, being the roll man in
Beilein’s complex pick and roll offense, rebounding, passing, defending). The problem is his chronic back issue flared
up in August which has kept McGary from practicing since. He and the coaches seem in high spirits about
this season even with their caution, but any 6’10” guy with a chronic back problem
is cause for concern. It is likely that
McGary will be kept out of most non-conference games, but should be ready for
the B1G season. This will be bad news
for the Iowa State, Puerto Rico Tournament, Arizona, and Duke games, but this
team wants to be full strength in March and April, not November and December. Jordan
Morgan is back for his 5th year and is fully recovered from his
gruesome high ankle sprain last year. He has slimmed down to 240 pounds which
should help his already above average quickness and athleticism. Morgan is a
known asset. He is a defensive stopper
and good rebounder for his size with limited shooting range and average hands. While he will never be a 10 ppg player, his athleticism
will be a key aspect of Coach Beilein’s motion offense. Jon Horford has bulked
up to 250 pounds, and brings a little different skillset than Jordan
Morgan. Horford is the best shot blocker
on the team, and has extended his shooting range to 15 feet. While he is bigger than Morgan, it does not
translate in his defensive tendencies. He relies on his shot blocking abilities
too much, instead of technique and position like Jordan. This translates into
an astronomical foul rate. If Horford can lower this he will be very tough to
keep off the floor. Biefeldt is likely the lone man out. He is a power forward,
but at only 6’7” struggles defensively against bigger B1G opponents. He has
built himself into more of a stretch four, with a knack for offensive
rebounding, but the depth on this team will keep Max off the floor. That leaves the forgotten incoming freshman
Mark Donnal. Most assume he will redshirt
this season, but I think he will play a role for this team. Donnal is a perfect
stretch four forward for Coach Beilein’s system. With range out to the three
point line and McGary’s injury, Donnal should jump Biefeldt on the depth chart
and push for time. While LeVert forced
his way onto the floor because of his defensive abilities last season, Donnal
should bring a very different wrinkle to the offensive side that should give
him 4-6 minutes a game.
With a healthy McGary the frontcourt depth is very good, but the
bodies at the wing are just absurd. Michigan
returns future lottery pick Glen Robinson III, the best shooter in the country Nik
Stauskas, the most improved player on the team Caris LeVert, and bring in
Indiana Mr. Basketball Zak Irvin. Each
of these players are 6’6”+ and around 200 pounds, and will allow Coach Beilein
to use his inner mad scientist more. GRIII added 15 pounds of muscle and
increased his already impressive vertical.
He was one of the most efficient players on the country last season, but
struggled to manufacture his own offense. He was unstoppable in the open court,
but when most B1G teams bog down the tempo he became hesitant or invisible. Fast forward to this season, and GRIII is the team’s
assist leader in practice. Not only has he become unguardable with the ball in
his hands, but he is creating offense for teammates. His body type is exactly
what the NBA is looking for in a wing, and if he can assert himself more on the
offensive end he could be in contention for NPOY. Nik Stauskas also bulked up
in the offseason which will allow him to be more durable over the course of the
long college season. Expect his non-conference success to carry into the B1G
season this year. Nik was already very good in the pick and roll offense
because of the numerous ways he could make a defense pay, but with the added weight
he will be able to finish at the rim more consistently which just makes him
even more difficult to guard. Caris LeVert continues to grow, and is now up 3
inches and 40 pounds since he arrived on campus last summer. He is unanimously the
most improved player on the team. His defensive abilities are well known, but
he has added to his offensive arsenal. Apparently he is the player that is the
toughest to stay in front of during one on one drills. Coach Beilein will be
trying many different lineups to make sure Caris can see the floor much more
than last season. Incoming phenom Zak Irvin has a similar offensive skillset as
a freshman Tim Hardaway. He is a knockout jump shooter with athleticism to
attack the rim, but is still uncertain of his abilities. However, on top of being
a catch and shoot guy, Irvin has been heralded as a lock down defensive
stopper. If this can translate to the college game, Irvin will take the bulk of
Tim Hardaway’s minutes.
Last but not least, the position group that is tasked to replace Trey
Burke. The Wolverines return Ann Arbor’s most eligible bachelor Spike Albrecht
and star incoming freshman Derrick Walton. Spike is an extension of the
coaching staff on the floor. He values the basketball, and does a great job of
setting up teammates while having the ability to knock down the open shot when
presented. If you remember the 2008-2009 team with David Merritt and C.J. Lee
running the point, Albrecht brings a similar skillset. However, he struggles to
create offense for himself. Michigan can put enough scoring threats around him
that the offense will not be at a stalemate, but if the high ceiling is to be
tapped into Derrick Walton will need to assume the point guard role by the postseason. I was able to watch both Trey Burke and
Walton in high school, and at graduation Walton was closer to becoming a
college ready point guard than Burke. Of course you cannot account for Trey’s
work ethic or untouchable confidence. The point guard in waiting is a great
facilitator, decent defender, and can take over the game offensively if needed.
I doubt we will see his killer instinct as much as Burke’s because it is not needed
on this team. On top of these two point
guard options, Coach Beilein has been talking about a lineup where Stauskas or
LeVert can act as the lead guard to initiate the offense. The Wolverines could
field a lineup of 4 6’6”+ players along with a big. Could you imagine a zone defense with that
length? It is a Syracuse-like roster
that has more versatility.
Overall this team has a chance to be even better than last
year’s. The nonconference schedule is extremely difficult, and the Wolverines
likely will not be undefeated heading into the conference season. The B1G will again be one of the nation’s
best conferences, but it shouldn’t be as loaded as last season. Assuming Mitch’s
injury heals, and he can play at or near 100% by the conference season, I think
a realistic expectation is to win the B1G and secure another favored seed
(1-4). There are some questions that
will need to be answered along the way, but I think we can sit back and just
enjoy the ride this coaching staff will take us on.
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