B1G Basketball Preview

In lieu of the B1G basketball media day taking place today in Chicago I figured it was the perfect time for my prediction post. According to anything you read, the B1G awards and preseason standings look to be unanimous.  Hopefully mine will break the trend a bit. 

Preseason Standings:

1.       Michigan

2.       Michigan State

3.       Ohio State

4.       Wisconsin

5.       Iowa

6.       Indiana

7.       Illinois

8.       Minnesota

9.       Purdue

10.   Penn State

11.   Northwestern

12.   Nebraska

All-B1G First Team

Guard: Tim Frazier, Penn State

Guard: Gary Harris, Michigan State

Forward: Glenn Robinson III, Michigan

Forward: Mitch McGary, Michigan

Forward: Adreian Payne, Michigan State

B1G POY

Glenn Robinson III, Michigan

B1G Defensive POY

Shannon Scott, Ohio State

B1G Freshman of the Year

Derrick Walton, Michigan

I know everyone has Michigan State in the top 5 and a lock to win the conference, but the Wolverines are clearly the deepest and most athletic team in the B1G (maybe in the nation).  The Spartans are more known at this point, and we have a pretty good guess of what they can be.  Harris and Payne are two of the best players in America, but they are surrounded by a lot of guys that are more ‘team’ guys. Appling has proven over the past 2 seasons that he just isn’t a natural point guard, and no matter how good he is looking in the preseason I just don’t see a light bulb clicking before his senior campaign.  The other contributors are sophomores Matt Costello, Denzel Valentine, Branden Dawson, and Travis Trice. The sophomore’s ceilings appear to be solid B1G starter level, while Dawson is a proven athletic freak without any refined offensive skills, and Trice is a very good backup point guard that, at times, can initiate the offense better than Appling.  They Spartans will likely have very little contributions from freshmen or redshirt freshman.  The lineup just listed has the makings of an extremely good team. They will be consistent, play physical B1G basketball, struggle with turnovers at times, and play very tough defense.  However, if a team is in the top 5 I expect them to Final Four contenders, and I just cannot see that from this Spartan team.  College basketball is guard oriented right now, and teams without an elite point guard do not make deep tournament runs.  Bringing this back in respect to the B1G, I expect this conference to again be one of the deepest leagues in America, and the top team should be a Final Four contender. Right now the only team that I think that about is the Michigan Wolverines. Yes, they have a lot more question marks than Michigan State, and have to replace a lot more production. However, I believe this coaching staff is the best in the country at allowing players to develop yet still fit into the Beilein offensive scheme.  If Mitch McGary is healthy, which is a very big if, this team looks close to unstoppable. The starting lineup will have McGary and GRIII, both of which are filling up preseason all-conference ballots, All-American lists, and potentially lottery draft picks.  Sophomores Stauskas and LeVert return with added muscle and both have NBA potential.  The front court is rounded out by All-B1G defensive center, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford both of which would start on most B1G teams. Finally, Michigan welcomes another stellar recruiting class in: Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton will push for starters minutes this season while stretch 4, Mark Donnal could provide an offensive wrinkle off the bench.  That is a scary roster. With Mitch being limited during nonconference play the Wolverine’s record might be underwhelming after their extremely difficult schedule, but they should be ready to go by B1G play and will be an extremely tough team to reckon with.