Week 4: Notre Dame preview

This week Michigan faces its second game this season where they are the underdogs.  They are one of the only top 25 teams that can make that claim at this point in the year.  The Wolverines head to South Bend to take on the stinkin leprechauns of Notre Dame.  The Irish are fresh off their complete dominance over Michigan State, on the road, and now have the nation’s interest yet again.  In just a 3 weeks time the golden domers have gone from unranked to national title contenders (in some people’s mind).  Just like Alabama’s strengths aligned with our weaknesses, so did Notre Dame’s against the Spartans. While I do think the Irish are a more complete team at this time, I do not think they will have as much success against Michigan as they did last week in East Lansing.

Notre Dame run offense against Michigan run defense

This appears to be the Wolverines biggest weakness of Team 133.  They did a better job against UMass last weekend, but it was UMass.  This will be one of the most important battles in this game.  Nobody is giving Michigan much of a chance to slow down the Irish’s deep rushing attack of Wood, Riddick, Gholson, etc, but nobody really knows how good this defensive line is yet.  Alabama makes every defensive line look like stuffed animals, and Air Force makes every team look like a deforestation project.  There are still a lot of question marks in this area with the Michigan defense, but this game tomorrow should help answer some of these.  I think the front 4 look less inept in this game, but still get pushed back a few times to spring the Notre Dame backs for big gains.  Advantage Notre Dame.

Notre Dame pass offense vs Michigan pass defense

Gholson impressed some doubters last weekend when he completed some throws against a very good defense. He looks like a college senior when he throws on a roll out.  I will expect Brian Kelly to run more plays this week to get Gholson on the move and out of the pocket. While in the pocket, however, Gholson’s passing is a different story.  He over threw receivers time and again, and looks constantly rushed back there even when Michigan State did not bring a blitz.  The matchup to watch here is how effective Frank Clark and Jake Ryan can be in keeping Gholson in the pocket and also just getting pressure on the quarterback.  Notre Dame is also breaking in a stable of new receivers, and they do not have the down field threat they have had in past seasons.  Gholson’s number one option will be giant tight end Tyler Eiffert.  He will likely be double covered for some of the game.  Michigan State blanketed him last week and Gholson could not complete one pass to him.  I doubt Notre Dame will make as many attempts down field as last week because the intermediate passing attack could be very effective against our line backers and 2^nd cornerback.  If Mattison’s designed blitzes can actually force some bad decisions from Gholson, Michigan could control this game.  I don’t think the pressure will be consistent enough, and the play action passing will be effective at certain times so the Irish will move the ball down the field. Advantage Notre Dame.

Michigan run offense vs Notre Dame run defense

The strength of the Notre Dame defense is right up the middle.  Their front seven will be one of the best we face all season.  The Michigan guards have really struggled so far this year with run blocking.  Fitz was able to get positive yards last week, but mostly when he ran off Lewan.  I doubt many yards will be gained from Michigan running backs between the tackles this week.  Notre Dame interior linebacker Te’o is the best in the nation, so even if the guards can get some push up front, big number 5 will be waiting.  The x factor here is Denard’s legs.  He has dominated the Irish the past two seasons, and will likely be needed to do it again tomorrow night.  Denard will need to continue to improve as a scrambling quarterback and not just a running QB.  If he can tuck the ball and run instead of forcing a couple of throws, the offense will likely eclipse 150 yards on the ground.  Advantage Notre Dame, if only counting running backs.  Advantage Michigan with Denard added.

Michigan pass offense vs Notre Dame pass defense

This might be the most lopsided matchup of the game.  Notre Dame has lost two preseason starters in the secondary, and now they lost a third for the season.  They are going to start 2 former receivers who are in their first season of playing defense.  Denard has shown improvements in the passing game so far this year, and this should continue tomorrow.  Of course, the Irish pass rush can greatly even this difference. I don’t see Notre Dame being overly aggressive, since they need to worry about Denard running.  The Michigan offensive line has been very good in pass coverage so far this year, and I think that continues this weekend.  Hopefully Denard can limit his bonehead throws.  If Denard does not have any turnovers I find it very hard to think Michigan won’t win this game.  Advantage Michigan.

Special Teams

Michigan’s special teams have been very good so far this season outside of punt coverage.  Hagerup has 11 punts on the year and 5 of them have gone for over 50 yards.  It looks like he is finally back to being a consistent punter.  It looks like both teams are happy to kick the ball out of the end zone for touchbacks.  It looks like both groups are close to even, the problem though is the Wolverine’s punt coverage has been so bad that Notre Dame has the athletes to get a big return.  Overall I would give neither team the advantage here.

I was not overly impressed with Notre Dame last weekend against Michigan State, it was a pretty tough game to watch.  I do think they were able to exploit Michigan State’s weaknesses on both sides of the ball which makes it easier to win the game.  In this game I expect both teams to be able to attack weaknesses, and I would be shocked if less than 40 points combined were scored.  I think Michigan has enough weapons on offense to stretch the field to give Denard and company some running lanes.  The question here is, which mistake-prone quarterback cracks first? I like Denard to continue his lore against the Irish tomorrow night with a mature but moderate performance.  Michigan 27 Notre Dame 24.