Thankfully the season goes on and we get to watch at least 11 more Michigan football games. I can all but guarantee that not a single one of them will look like what we had to witness last Saturday. Michigan opens the Big House for the first time during the 2012 season. Even with the chance of a cool rain, I would guess that the 112,000+ crowd will be electric in welcoming the gridiron warriors home. This week the Wolverines take on Air Force. I think it is a cool honor to host a military service school, and I hope the fans show the same respect during the game. Yes, I want Michigan to win by a landslide, but we need to remember that the kids on the other side of the field are serving our country.
Air Force Run Offense vs Michigan Run Defense
Well last week the Michigan defense looked terrible. On most plays it was difficult to see which position group was the worst offenders. The defensive line gone pushed back to the 2nd or 3rd level repeatedly, and the LB crew was constantly in the wrong position. Yes, Alabama has the best offensive line that college football has seen in some time, but there was also but very bad technique from the boys in blue. I am hoping that we will get a better understanding of what we have on defense in our next few game, but Air Force runs an option attack which most teams struggle defending. While it will be good practice for our front seven, most fans will probably be disappointed with the amount of rush yards the Falcons finish with. Even though the Air Force front line is completely undersized and overmatched on paper, they execute their plays to perfection. The zone blocking (and cut blocks) scheme gets enough push that the QB is able to pick which "option" to choose for the run. One major key to stopping this type of an offense is to have a dominant nose tackle, or a solid group of DT's. The interior of the defensive line might have been the worst position group after Alabama. Was it that they were going against the best lineman in the country all game? Possibly. It also could be that our DT's are going to be a weak spot all season, and freshman Ondre Pipkens could emerge as a starter by midseason. Even though our defensive front outweighs the Falcon offensive line, I still think Air Force will surpass 250 yards on the ground. If last week was more a result from bad defense, this number could swell to 350+ yards. Advantage Air Force.
Air Force Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
As I just explained Air Force runs a rush first offense. The Falcons will hand the ball off around 75% of the time. They have no reason to pass the ball if the defense is giving up 4+ yards per carry. If the Michigan front seven can manage to force some 3rd and long type situations, the secondary might see some playaction throws, but for the most part the defensive backfield will be in full run support mode most afternoon. This could be good for Courteney Avery to get used to the starting cornerback role, or it could mean they fall asleep and give up a big play or two. Even with Blake Countess out for this game, the Michigan back 4 have a large advantage in athleticism and technique. If Air Force needs to pass the ball more than 12 times it is a very good day for Big Blue. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan Run Offense vs Air Force Run Defense
Now we get to the fun part. After watching 60 minutes of Michigan struggling to get back to the line of scrimmage, the Wolverines should have no problem moving the ball and scoring points through the air or on the ground. Michigan welcomes star running back Fitz Toussiant back to the lineup where he offers a more dynamic option for the offense to turn to. I think the running game will have a big day tomorrow. Look for Fitz to eclipse 100 yards and Denard to likely be close. It could be one of those games to get Rawls some more snaps just for experience. The Michigan offensive line should look a lot better against an undersized defensive line, and Lewan and Schofield should look like the Alabama line last weekend. Worry if the Wolverines are not over 200 yards on the ground. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan Pass Offense vs Air Force Pass Defense
Denard had a rough game last weekend, but when looking at a lot of the offensive plays again he actually performed a lot better than he did last year against MSU or VT. He was a lot more accurate with most of his throws and was the victim of some really good cornerback play. I think the Michigan receivers will be able to get more separation from the Air Force secondary, and Denard should have a field day in the passing game. I dont know how much Hoke and company will open up the playbook since running the ball should work just fine to move the sticks, but Denard can help the fans forget last weekend even if he just throws the ball as good as last week. Folks, his technique has improved a lot and he could be a threat in the passing game this season if our receivers can continue to improve. One area that Denard always has struggled in is scrambling when a passing play just isnt there. It would be very encouraging to see him tuck the ball once or twice tomorrow and make a positive play out of noting. Yes, he could throw the ball up to Devin and 30% of the time he comes down with it, or he can just take off and get 4-5 yards at minimum. If he turns into a scrambling QB, this offense's ceiling shoots up. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan Special Teams vs Air Force Special Teams
I was very impressed with this area last weekend from Michigan, and I have to be honest I do not know much about the Falcon's kicking game. I would venture a guess, though, and say if Michigan repeats its performance it will have the advantage in most games this year. It will be interesting to see Hagerup does with some wet and windy conditions. I also think that Dennis Norfleet will break at least one return past the 50. People this kid is a true freshman, so we get to see 4 more years of a good return game. Advantage Michigan.
The spread for this game is 21 points which seems high to me. I don't think Air Force will be held under 10 points in this game, and our defense will likely look pretty bad from the stats. I do think that the defensive line and linebackers are not as bad as they looked in Dallas, and they bounce back a little tomorrow. Air Force will still manage to score points, but they have nobody to slow down Michigan's offense. It will be interesting to see how much Hoke wants to run up the score, because the Wolverines shouldnt need to punt more than twice. I think a lot of egos are hurt and the coaches will use the next two weeks to get some confidence back to the team, so Michigan scores and scores often in a 45-21 win.
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