NFL Week 2: Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers

I have to be honest, I was not able to watch a single snap of Detroit's opening week win against St. Louis.  I was enjoying my hometown country fair, thats right people.  On a side note, I did correctly pick the Grand Champion Steer... again.  Anyways, I am glad the Lions got the first victory out of the way because this week they head on the road to face everyone's new favorite team.  I did catch some of the SF game in Green Bay, and I came away impressed just like everyone else.  Especially now after the Packers just took a dump on Jay Cutler and the Bears.  These two teams met last year and it was one of the most exciting games of the season.  The Lions were on the wrong side of a 4th down touchdown pass that gave Detroit their first loss of the season, but it was still an entertaining football game.  This year, the game is getting a lot more hype.  The 49ers made the NFC Championship game and were a few plays away from making the Super Bowl in Jim Harbaugh's first season, and we all know about the Lion's impressive year.  Jim Harbaugh has taken over a stout defense that he has infused with his aggressive style and a solid offense that he has turned into one of the deepest and toughest to game plan against.  I would say that is pretty good after 1 season.  This team does look primed to take over Green Bay's roost as the NFC's best team. 

So after that little hype up, do the Lions actually have a chance in this game?  Well with Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson you always have a chance, but this week might be a relatively small chance.  This will be a very important game for Detroit's national image.  Here in Michigan we think Detroit is better than Chicago and one of the top 5 teams in the NFC.  If Detroit can manage to go into Candlestick Park and pull out their 2nd win of the season on Sunday night, Detroit might become one of the favorites in the NFC.  While yes, this is just another regular season game, and Detroit likely needs to get to 10 wins to make the playoffs, this game could do a lot to boost confidence. 

San Francisco run offense vs Detroit run defense
This matchup will be the most important to watch on Sunday night.  This battle will have a big impact on the Lions having a chance to pull out a victory.  Last week the front 7 for Detroit did very well against Jackson and the Rams running attack.  If they can replicate that success, Sunday night will be quite the football game.  However, the 49ers are not the Rams.  They boast one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and a run first coach.  They also have a stable of good running backs, any of which would likely start for Detroit (Gore, Fuller, Jacobs, and LaMicheal James).  Their 4th string running back was who most of Detroit wanted to draft in the 2nd round and with Leshore's suspension would be thrown into the starting role.  He likely will not see a carry on Sunday.  Detroit's solid 8 man defensive line rotation will be strained on Sunday.  I am very excited to see the Lions interior line against the 49er guards and center, if Suh and company can get some pentetration, Detroit has a chance of slowing down the offense.  I would also like to see the defensive ends be more productive than last week against the Rams average line.  Advantage San Francisco.

San Francisco pass offense vs Detroit pass defense
Alex Smith will never be confused for Matthew Stafford, but Jim Harbaugh has turned him into quite the game manager.  Smith is the NFL version of the Alabama quarterback.  He is there to not lose the football game.  If the running game is working well, the 49er passing game will be opened up.  They use mainly play action passing  with Alex Smith, and last week it worked well against Green Bay considering he completed almost 80% of his passes.  San Francisco has added loads of skill players to put around Smith to make him feel more confident in the passing game.  Their current pass catching threats could be the best in the NFL.  See a pattern here, running backs and receivers/tight ends?.  They picked up Manningham and Moss in free agency.  They drafted Illinois star AJ Jenkins in the first round.  They have added these guys to Crabtree and Vernon Davis.  Yikes.  The Detroit pass defense all hinges on the defensive line's ability to get pressure on the quarterback.  The secondary is already depleted with injuries, and the line backers struggle in space to cover athletic tight ends.  If the line cannot force Smith to get rid of the ball quickly, I think Davis will have a monster game against the Lions.  There is just nobody on the roster who can cover him.  With all of the injuries for Detroit, they likely will be in zone coverage most of the night, which is pretty easy to pick apart if you have time to throw the ball.  The only thing that will help Detroit is if they are able to force some turnovers.  The problem is the once turnover-prone Smith has not thrown an interception in 8 straight games.  Also, remember he completed 77% last week agains the Packers who just forced Cutler into 4 interceptions and 7 sacks.  Double yikes.  Advantage San Francisco in a land slide.

Detroit run offense vs San Francisco run defense
Detroit is still missing their top 2 backs this week and will need to rely on Kevin Smith and Keenan Willaims again.  If Smith can stay up right for this game I think he is an above average running back, but the key here is can the Detroit offensive line run block as well as they did last week?  The history says no.  The Lion's offensive line is at their best when they can pass block, so Detroit's running game might look like a lot of screens and draw plays this week.  The 49er front line is very good again, and like I said earlier, Harbaugh plays an aggressive style.  They will bring the line backers or a defensive back on a blitz quite often.  This leaves them vulernable to long pass plays, but they will not have to worry about a homerun threat in the back field with the Lions.  At best the Lions can pick up a few short yardage first downs, but I doubt that the running game will be able to get more than 70 yards on the game.  Advantage San Francisco.

Detroit pass offense vs San Francisco pass defense
This matchup will be very fun to watch.  the 49ers will draw up one blitz after the other to knock Stafford around and get his confidence rattled.  If the offensive line can offer up any sort of resistance, Stafford will be able to find open receivers.  The problem here is the SF line backing unit might be the best in the NFL with Willis and Bowman.  Willis is very good in coverage and in run support.  Detroit will need to use Pettigrew's size advantage in this game, so Stafford is going to have to put the ball in tight windows.  The Packer line struggled with the all out blitz coming up the middle, and Rodgers was not able to get rid of the ball in time a lot last Sunday.  I think San Francisco will limit the blitzes a bit in this game because of the Calvin Johnson worry, but the offensive line will have their hands full still.  Stafford will need to pick apart the 49er secondary, which might be the weakest unit on the entire team, but still above average.  If he in not running for his life, there is no reason to think he can't throw for over 300 yards again.  I also think the 3 interceptions in one game will not happen again either.  Look for Stafford to hit Calvin for their first TD connection of the season, and possibly a few big plays.  Advantage Detroit slightly. 

Special teams
The San Francisco kicker, David Akers, just drilled a 62 yarder last week in Green Bay.  Hanson is consistent, but no longer has the length strength like that.  Field position will play a key role in this game as well.  If Detroit is starting close to their own end zone a lot, look for SF to bring the heat over and over.  Last week the field position battle was won by Detroit, and it likely won them the game.  Advantage push.

As much as I want to see the Lions go to the west coast and get their 2nd win of the season, I just don't see it happening.  Detroit has too many holes on defense, and SF has too many weapons to exploit those issues.  I do think Stafford makes some big throws to keep Detroit close, but in the end the Lion defense cannot get off the field enough and San Francisco pulls out a 31-21 win.